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XOP is very cheap right now. It is only a few dollars from its all time low, and that happened when oil was $27 back in 2016. Oil price is twice that. People are very scared to put money in the oil complex right now but I see low hanging fruit. I started buying GUSH slowly yesterday and I will continue to accumulate while this bottoms out. It will take some time.
Yes, I completely agree oil back to $60 by June or so. UWT decay is tough. It however is better then UWTI which as you know was what was the bull ETN back a few years ago until credit Suisse decided to end it. UWTI had decay much worse then what UWT has. In what I have noticed UWT decay isn't at all as bad as that other ETN was.
I'm still out but waiting and if I get the opportunity going back in UWT and GUSH hopefully in the next couple of weeks or so.
Basically I'm waiting to see if the S&P 500 can break above the 50 day moving average.
I sold my UWT for about a $3 a share gain. Also I was in GUSH and sold that as well for about a $4.25 a share gain. Pretty good money. I had accumulated both for several weeks. I am very bullish on oil fundamentally as we have discussed. I am just cautious right here as I feel there might be a move to risk off again in the second half of January. Also I was expecting a big bounce in January but then a pullback into February. Its just a gut feeling. I am watching close and plan to begin accumulation again in a couple of weeks. March through May are going to be very good months for oil IMO.
UWT and oil have different closing times. The oil pit I believe closes at 2:30. UWT closing price is at 4:00 since it is an ETN traded at the NYSE. Trading for oil is almost 24/7 but 2:30 is the closing price for the day. Oil will show green at 4:00 if it has risen during that 1 and a half hour between pit close and stock market close. Oil closed down at 2:30 over 3%. Then after pit close recovered some and was up but for oil it was a new trading day. For UWT it wasn't yet so UWT had priced into it what oil had done all day, the over 3% decline and then the 1% increase after the oil pit close.
SA tried that in 2014 through early 2016. They lost and it isn't what they are trying to do now. In 2014 oil started crashing and it was what they wanted...at first anyway for the reason you stated. To try and bankrupt shale. This was made clear in their actions at that time as they took more then 2 years before they started cutting and trying to balance the market. This time their actions tell everyone they don't want oil that low. They started cuts almost right away. Also they have budget issues. They want and need oil higher. Everyone is calling for low 30s again or high 20s and a repeat of early 2016 but I don't see it. OPEC cut right away this time. Inventories are a lot lower then in early 2016 also. Back then there was a glut. This time there is some oversupply but it isn't as drastic as the media puts out. Inventories are actually about the same as they were 1 year ago. A far cry from the huge oversupply in 2015-early 2016. Oil shouldn't go below 40 fundamentally. However shouldn't and won't are not the same.
IMO you are doing it the right way. Slowly buy. Right now oil is down 40% and the market down basically 20%. Buying now is certainly not buying at the top. Those calling for oil to go to $35 could end up being correct, never know but first it must break below $45 then $42 and then $38.
Anyway everything is extremely oversold and everything is so negative. Buying now will bring a good return. It will take time though and your current strategy of slowly buying is the correct way in this environment. I am doing the same. We are not buying the October prices. We are buying now and dollar cost averaging and that strategy worked in early 2016 and in 2009. By May we will probably be in the green and by a lot. Hang in there.
Looks like I might be right about there isn't going to be enough supply next year. IAE put out a report forecasting a supply deficit in oil markets to begin in the second quarter of next year.
I think crude bounces to high $50s. Sentiment is bad but fundamentals are looking ok now. Production cuts left and right and inventories the last couple of weeks have been dropping a lot. I actually believe there might be more risk of a supply shortfall next year. Anyway I believe crude bounces to high 50s within a month. Then yes the final flush you are looking for could happen in February/March to bring oil to 46 or so. After that it is up and up from there.
Positive development. Another is Canada is cutting over 300 thousand barrels a day. The market is slightly oversupplied currently with world production being about 1.3 million b/d more then world consumption. Another way to say it is oil is about 1 percent oversupplied compared to consumption. Canada cutting just took 1/4 of that off. Now OPEC just needs to cut about 1 million barrels. Small cut, hopefully they are smart enough to do it. Then add next year new IMO standards go into effect which takes away 1.5 million b/d.
Did it again today. Bought 500 shares this morning at pit open and then sold them all back 15 minutes before pit close. As I stated yesterday the bears are very predictable right now. Been able to made good money just off of knowing what they always do at pit open and close. Eventually though I think they will switch their algos and oil will have a big bounce to upper 50s to low 60s. If OPEC makes the dumb mistake like they did in 2015 and not cut then oil is going to 42 or so. I doubt they make that mistake again though. Just a cut of about 1 mb should balance things again.
See absolutely hilarious. Sold UWT at 14.40 before start of pit close. Then bought all back of what I sold at 13.95 at the close. Oil bears do the same thing over and over.
Bears always smash at pit close. Always between 3:30 am and 4:00 am on London open they attack and US close between 2:00 pm and 2:30 pm. Eastern time zone I'm rendering to.Expect the same today. Been holding UWT from 13.15. Sold some to book profit. Will buy back again after the bears attack. Oil bears are extremely predictable.
Looks like Russia might be in. This is a change as until now Russia seemed not to be interested in being part of cuts.
These are the actual numbers of the "glut". This time last year there was 450 million barrels of inventory. Right now there are about 450 million barrels of inventory. Which btw is about the 5 year average. In early October with oil well in the 70s there were 26 days of supply in inventory. Now there is 27 days of supply. Yes oil has lost 1/3 of its value do to a "glut" of which 1 single day of inventory supply has been added. Sounds pretty stupid but those are the numbers.
S&P 500 has a perfect W formed. FED chairman pretty much said 2 more rate hikes from here and solid growth next year. Economy is in good shape and will cool off some next year but still have 2% plus growth next year. Dollar will now weaken also as tightening cycle comes to an end. Oversold stock market is all setup for a rally. Market rally should boost oil. Dollar weakening should boost. Projected 2% demand growth is good and is a boost. Tigtening cycle nearing an end is a boost too. I think oil finds its bottom soon and recovers to fib retrace which would be about $60.
Even more so on $wtic chart. ADX over 60. With +DI at 3.98. Trend has reached extreme levels and as usual there are those that want to short here smh. Also showing RSI divergence.
API inventory report seems bearish at first look however the builds week over week are now decreasing so that is bullish. Big drawl in gasoline also. Finally once the price is cheap enough inventory reports don't matter. The turnaround from the last oil crash was in March 2016. A very bearish EIA report came out with a massive build and from that day on oil went on a 2 1/2 year run. Have to see EIA report tomorrow and the reaction. After that we may know if bottom was in.
You are probably right about that. I believe Trump said he wanted $49 oil.
The narrative the media is putting out is simply supply/demand is the reason for the fall. What they don't mention is that inventory levels are the same now as they were a year ago today. It is down because the fat cats decided to short. The media spent know anything. They go ask the fat cats why its down and the fat cats tell them what they want reported. Then reports come out about demand decreasing which is false. Inventories at a glut which is false etc etc. These inventory level right now a year ago they said was somewhat short on supply, now its a glut. Anyway I think Trump said he wanted $49 oil so maybe that's what the whales set their algorithims to go.Year over year fundamentals as far as pure supply/demand haven't changed much. Only the narrative has.
I started a position in UWT here. I personally believe this 35% drop in oil is way overdone. I think fair market value for oil should be around $61-$66
Many fallacies being reported about oil. 1 there is a glut. That is false. Inventory levels are the same right now as they were last December. Year over year inventory levels at this point are about equal so all of this production this year has been getting consumed.
#2 demand is decreasing. That is false. Demand is not decreasing. Demand growth next year is expected to fall but still be very robust. A decline in demand and a decline in demand growth are 2 very different things.
#3 builds in inventories over the last many weeks proves there is a glut. False because again look at #1 and inventories are supposed to build this time of year. This is build season.
OPEC is going to cut, also next year a new IMO standard goes into effect taking 1.5 million bpd off the market. Demand will remain robust. The reality is there is more of a supply shortage possibility than a supply glut next year. The fat cats started shorting and told the media a bunch of nonsense as to why prices are falling so hard. I'm looking at buying around $50 wti as I think that is where the fat cats want it before going long again and then telling the media about supply shortages lol.
This is a glorious day. I have huge gains in Nugt and Jnug. Congrats to others that also are making big money here.
Silver is insanely cheap.
Only thing that bothered me today was how little gold went up in comparison to how much the $$$ went down. Gold should be $1220-$1240 with the dollar being where its at IMO. It doesn't necessarily mean a ton but I didn't like that so I took some profit and took half off the table just in case the dollar rebounds some.
Yep, that's what I do. Swing trade usually for around 10-20%. Usually takes a couple of days to a couple of weeks to hit my sell target after I buy. In the last month here I have done very well. Loaded up big in mid August and sold about a week later and then loaded up again 2 weeks ago. Sold half of that today.
I'm targeting 1240 for gold within a month or so. Silver back at 15.60. GDX back over 21. NUGT up big over that time. Thats my hopes anyway. Really considering the declines of metals and miners since June thats not asking for a whole lot. Very reasonable actually.
For an OTC company its a pretty good company. It was sold to extreme and had to have a big bounce which started yesterday. It should continue up to about 3 to 3.50. From there you will have to analyze again. Its a weed stock. When they are cold they're cold and when hot hot. I wouldn't be stunned if CBDS saw its yearly low Wednesday and if it went back to 7-9 bucks by end of year or yearly next year. I hit my target so I'm out for now, best of luck to you.
I am absolutely loaded up on shares here. Been buying shares since Wednesday spending like a drunken sailor. IMO this is the best buy opportunity in Gold/Silver, miners or miner ETFs in years. I have an avg pps cost here at 13.05 and am thrilled with the opportunity. All metals and miners even after today at extremely oversold conditions hardly ever seen. Christmas came early IMO.
Thanks, I took my profit of 40% in two days. It basically hit my target so I took my $1900 gain. CBDS can absolutely go higher. I actually expect it to run to about 3.50 without major resistance so I probably left money on the table but it got close enough to my 3 target and I took my profit.
Thank you. Appreciate it.
You have to buy low and sell high. Not other way around. Also weed stocks typically have a seasonality which is actually kind of similar to gold stocks seasonality. Also chart of CBDS was screaming "buy me!!!".
No insiders are not buying but there isn't dumping going on either. Before I touched this I read their last quarterly report. This company doesn't dilute very much. Especially for an OTC company. They have some convertibles but not much. This company does very mild dilution. They actually seem to respect their shares over the years. They dilute maybe 1 million worth of stock per year. Thats only about 5% of the stock per year. As far as dilution goes thats about the best you will find on OTC.
No not really at all. Didn't look like any kind of dumping. Hasn't looked like dumping at all actually. Before today volume was very very light. Pps dropped on slow bleed. Dumping has very high volume and big pps declines. This had been having very low volume days and small pps declines day after day. First day with any big volume was today and it was 20% green.
Flush out in progress. I agree good time to buy. I went in with a half position as I think tomorrow morning blood continues for flush out to complete. If that happens I will double up.
Buying here. GDX RSI at 15 and pps way below lower Bollinger band. Miners excessively oversold along with metals.
I bought some today at just over 2 bucks. I like the chart. Excessively oversold, good entry point IMO. Can bounce to 2.50 easy and 3.00 without much problem.
If dilution ends then so does the shorting. The dilution is the fuel to the fire for shorts. It ensures they basically have a risk free trade.
As far as Robin hood most there are probably underwater. Some will sell but many will hold knowing they can't buy anymore and many desire to hold on to what they might think could be a lotto ticket. I personally think the robinhood thing is a wash, no consequence or any real effect comes from it.
What is important is the dilution. Dilution is the root of all death spiral financing deals. Remove dilution and death spiral dies. Shorts both retail and institutional, but institutional are the important factor, won't want to go anywhere near a 5 cent stock traded on the Nasdaq without dilution being their safety net.
I personally have a small long position of 50,000 shares at just under 5 cent avg and I flip shares daily as well. I don't use robin hood. I like to trade after market hours a lot. Frankly I never did trust robin hood. For reasons like what they just did. Plenty of brokers with 5 buck trade fees that are quick, quality and professional and non-restrictive.
Dilution has slowed down a lot it appears. Last couple of days volume has been decreasing a lot and with much smaller pps percent declines. This was trading 400 million shares with 50% pps declines, now low to mid 100 million volume with flat to 15 percent declines. Maybe they are turning the faucet off. Looks that way by the volume and action. I own only 50,000 at average of 4.95 cents. Been flipping from time to time but hold on to some for a ticket once it runs and it will run eventually, these always do. Regardless dilution has slowed greatly in recent days.
I believe there is 100-200 million outstanding shares now and about 100-200 million naked shorted shares out by the loan shark MMs. If dilution is held back for awhile then the nakeds will buy and balance their books. If dilution continues then there is no reason or need for the nakeds to balance their books as they can continue to use the dilution to cover for their naked shorting they do ahead of dilution. If this big slow down in dilution maintains then HMNY will run.
Chart of that one is identical basically to this one. Same will happen here too eventually. Similar setup with that one, similar financial circumstances. These always have a huge dead cat bounce eventually. Similar news would bolt this one too. Eventually though with or without news to help it will happen here. Already had a foreshadowing of it twice here recently. Im not even in this at the moment but I know without any doubt this will have a huge dead cat bounce eventually. Not an if but a when and and from where. The bottom and timing of it are the only question here.
I made 3 trades today. Very fun day but I did something different today. I held a chunk of shares through close and even after hours. In days past I would be sure to be all out by close or by end of after hours. This afternoon I didn't feel a need to do that. Im not all in at all or anything like that but I certainly feel more easy about holding some shares for the following trading day. HMNY looking pretty well setup here.