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Re: tw0122 post# 249

Thursday, 12/27/2018 7:27:21 PM

Thursday, December 27, 2018 7:27:21 PM

Post# of 934
SA tried that in 2014 through early 2016. They lost and it isn't what they are trying to do now. In 2014 oil started crashing and it was what they wanted...at first anyway for the reason you stated. To try and bankrupt shale. This was made clear in their actions at that time as they took more then 2 years before they started cutting and trying to balance the market. This time their actions tell everyone they don't want oil that low. They started cuts almost right away. Also they have budget issues. They want and need oil higher. Everyone is calling for low 30s again or high 20s and a repeat of early 2016 but I don't see it. OPEC cut right away this time. Inventories are a lot lower then in early 2016 also. Back then there was a glut. This time there is some oversupply but it isn't as drastic as the media puts out. Inventories are actually about the same as they were 1 year ago. A far cry from the huge oversupply in 2015-early 2016. Oil shouldn't go below 40 fundamentally. However shouldn't and won't are not the same.

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