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It seems like Musclepharm is turning a corner where it can produce for higher revenues at a much more reasonable cost.
I think we are close to having adequate manufacturing capacity at Capstone Nutrition, and that a commercial bank loan soon will replace the loans through ANB bank.
Musclepharm may stil lose 20 cents in Q2, but the outlook will look much better.
with $57 million in Q2 revenue, the stock price would be like $15...because then all of a sudden a Capstone Nutrition acquisition becomes realistic.
We will have to wait and see if there is any basis for being that optimistic.
I think the revenue will be in the $50-52 million range for Q2...and that 40% to 50% of the revenue will be recognized in June.
Musclepharm consolidated half of the $8 million credit line with the new loan in February....so, Musclepharm can borrow up to $11 million from ANB bank with no worries...
I expect Q2 revenue to be above $50 million and that Musclepharm will get a commercial bank loan before the end of Q2.
Right now, the reception of the Q1 results and CC has been positive...so, any positive news before Q2 results should make the stock price appreciate further....and ease eventual liquidity worries of creditors, investors and suppliers.
I wonder if it would be possible to press an aluminum can with the pattern similar to the muscles of the body...Ecorche is where you draw the muscles of the body, showing no skin....a technique invented by Leonardo Da Vinci, as he messed around with some dead bodies half a millennium ago.
It would kind of be cool depicting or pressing the muscles on a can....but perhaps this is more appropriate for a dark underground brand as creepy as Curse....or an idea for Monster Energy that got a creepy brand image.
Brad bought $8 higher last time.....so, I will try not to resist the urge to cash out until we reach something in that range.
We should demand that Brad's performance based compensation be entirely based on his ability to make the stock price appreciate beyond levels of insider trades....otherwise, these insider trades would be nothing other than marketing material for penny stock newsletters.
I have a hard time seeing that the compensation for the executives in this company is based on stock price appreciation...but perhaps it is just me being dumb. You should expect that something gonna have to change in that regard with Musclepharm entering the Nasdaq arena.
let's get it to $7 at least, so it is not only the ones that bought over the last 2 months that are in the green.
The stock gotta be oversold with price/projected sales = 1/4 and price/(actual sales q1 x 4) close to 1/3.
a hedgefund down 50% is always a good thing for other shareholders.
That is correct!....The question is whether this was insider trading?
I'm not here to take up Deepspace's invitation to pump this stock....but looking at the chart, the stock does look quite oversold at current levels, with glimpses of hope of recovery of business.
The company hasn't raised any cash for 3 months, which is not too bad given the backlog and growing organization. Perhaps Musclepharm is turning over the inventory more times than prior, and perhaps the lower manufacturing costs are providing it with positive operative cash flows. The money gotta come from somewhere, right?
Musclepharm didn't receive any questions from Wynnefield Capital during the conference call...and the tone was very jovial with penny stock analysts. So, pretty much we got hedge fund activism emerging on one side, against a Hollywood PR show on the other side.
Is that a bullish signal or not? you tell me Texas ranger...
I don't think we are gonna hear any further about it...and if we were, it would be bad news for Brad.
When you are an executive of a public company and you possess private company information....then nobody expects that you get a margin call on some company stocks you pledged as security against a loan 6 months ago.
better management of credit and stock issuances, making creditors and investors more comfortable with putting money into Musclepharm....that is really all that Musclepharm needs imo.
A stock price of $4.65, a margin call and a waiver for breach of terms of loan that ain't impressive to me.
it worries me that the company's management's pursuit of stocks in the company has come at the expense of reasonable liquidity management.
However, in case ANB pulls the trigger and sells the stocks in escrow, that might be the end of this board and management though....so, as I see it, the burden lies on them.
It is disgusting that they are so comfortable with granting themselves millions of shares when they lose people's money and the company is in dire need of cash. Not sure I have seen any other company gambling that much and believing that strongly in 50 cents' motto: "Die rich or die tryin!"
What can we do about it? We could contact Wynnefield, the board perhaps and demand some more action....or sue them I suppose.
It's hard for us to do much if they don't care about anybody else than themselves.
Fact is that the executives at Musclepharm have caused losses for all long term investors to pay themselves in our stocks, and that the company's concern for the guy on the floor comes down to allowing them to buy their stocks at a discount as proposed in proxy.
When the company enter the Nasdaq arena, large executive pay packages and staged conference calls become a little harder....as analysts and institutional investors there are a little less your friends....but guys with billion dollar reputations.
I have a feeling that Musclepharm has no urgency entering smallcap Nasdaq arena sooner than necessary because of what I just told you.
The energy drink doesn't have a name...am I the only one who has noticed that?
Pretty much Musclepharm forwarded the energy drink project to some advertising agency with no name yet. The advertising agency designed the can and put a Musclepharm logo sticker where a product name was suppose to be.
Musclepharm is completely out of ideas I suppose. It would be like Coca Cola naming Fanta and Sprite, Coca Cola Orange and Coca Cola Clear.
I only see Gatorade with such a no name strategy for it's Whey Protein Bar...that is called Whey Protein Bar....Gatorade is a little different than Musclepharm though by not having tons of different products and lines.....I think the more you stretch the brand, the more you need product brands.
Whey Protein Bar is also a little more descriptive than Energy Sport.
Energy Sport is not a name.
anthony roberts on board, and you got jersey shore in cleveland.
I bet you have some good brisket at the local cafeteria as well....so, no need for any schwarzenegger selling you beef in a tub from a spoiled brat pirate.
If management outright lies to us.....and it becomes clear to us that there were no manufacturing issues whatsoever affecting sales (from whistleblower for example), or the company's sales will be declining more than growing this year....then we have a very good case of misrepresentation by management, and we should seek to have it replaced ASAP through class action or hedge fund action.
Musclepharm needs to put a 10% cap on employee equity dilution in it's articles of corporation for 2016 and beyond.
That would give employees a real incentive to perform, because they knew in advance that 10% most likely would be granted to them in stocks in Musclepharm's case.
That would give medium term investors an incentive to buy the stock and not just short term investors.
For long term investors, it probably would take less dilution than 10% overall to really be that interested....unless the growth and performance was unreal and sustained y-o-y.
10% employee equity dilution would be a start though.....even if it still is kind of abnormal for a company that has been around some years.
All my suggestions are for 2016 and beyond, as I suspect the company would be uplisted to Nasdaq by then.
Nasdaq uplisting could triple the stock price if some uncertainty regarding future employee equity dilution was removed.
..but the demand picked up again later on, and became much stronger than ever.
Definitely lots of things to improve when it comes to the energy drink, Cory's daily squatting, the brand's human side etc...but some underlying strength in the demand for Musclepharm's products is a reality.
Musclepharm stock is cheap considering that it cannot meet demand with marketing that is improvable on many fronts (meaning unlimited demand could be unlocked if marketing improved).
I mean, if you can document strong demand to a lender and it is obvious that a few investments into your operations could boost sales, then the chance of you getting a loan should be pretty darn good.
Musclepharm is more or less turning into a Monster Energy, Red Bull and 5 Hour Energy story... where demand comes from nowhere all of a sudden. None of us expected that a huge backlog was building...but apparently, the company has been gaining some momentum lately.
Musclepharm is a human brand according to Brad.
Okay, let's count how many human faces we find here:
http://mpssi.com/team/
Is the Musclepharm brand really that human compared to other successful brands?
http://www.coca-colacompany.com/
http://www.healthydirections.com/our-doctors/
Healthy Directions that just sold for $195 million because of it's human brands that are endorsed by doctors not afraid of showing their faces.
Healthy Directions only sold for $145 million a year when acquired by Helen of Troy last year....Musclepharm is selling for $165 to $200 million a year with market cap of approx. $55 million.
So, it pays being human.
Brad mooning at Musclepharm...what's up with that?
Rockhold might be a little too Californian aka gay for a broader audience on second thought.
So, I guess we will have to settle with Cory squatting every day for now, old skool Ohio with Arnold.
I would like somebody like UFC fighter Luke Rockhold to represent Musclepharm more actively than now. He is a presentable, well spoken Californian UFC fighter from Santa Cruz, with a dad that played for Golden State and his brother being a pro surfer. He likes skating, surfing and playing golf....He doesn't cost anything compared to Colin Kaepernick, Cory Gregory and Tiger Woods....
Combat and Assault moving up the top 50 list at BB.com is somewhat encouraging....I wonder when traders will move on that? does it take a top 10 or top 20 ranking for Combat for them to pull the trigger?
Cory's Squat Every Day is bullshit....nobody gives a shit about him pretending to be strong.
Cory is a good interviewer though, I do like his interviews of Arnold Schwarzenegger....as he let Arnold talk without interrupting him....acknowledging that Arnold is the star.
Musclepharm has been facing various challenges lately.
1) It came out of a weak fourth quarter.
2) It has been transitioning manufacturing of it's powders to Capstone's manufacturing facility in Utah.
3) The strong US dollar during Q1 delayed many International orders.
4) The demand for it's products exploded in March creating a backlog of $17 million worth of orders by the end of the quarter.
Despite these challenges, the company is heading in the right direction with $10 million revenue growth from Q4 to Q1 and more revenue growth anticipated for the remainder of the year driven by leaner value chain that will boost the company's operating cash flow.
Combat and Assault moving up the BB.com top 50 list....so, it looks like the backlog at Musclepharm soon will be history.
perhaps you should switch to Cellucor products...LOL
http://www.becavalier.com/
It's a good measure with the company boosting revenue with $10 million each quarter and much of it's endorsements and compensation prepaid with stocks.
With a $2.5 million extension of credit, the stock should essentially double, as that most definitely would produce positive cash flows.
The stock price should go up.
Musclepharm's products are in stock at most retailers and yet it got a huge backlog of orders that make the bank cooperative for further financing and assisting MSLP in transition to commercial bank lending.
We are looking at ever growing domestic demand, and return of international sales....At the same time, manufacturing is getting optimized, reducing manufacturing costs substantially.
My new price target is $11.
I'm quite certain that Musclepharm is keeping GNC, Costco, Walgreens and VitaminShoppe's inventories at par levels.
It comes down to Bodybuilding.com and Europa Sport that got a little more patience than any of the above mentioned retailers.
Furthermore, Musclepharm has probably decided to start out small with Walmart, and increase volume there as it's liquidity and manufacturing capabilities improve.
the higher the stock price, the better the liquidity situation for Musclepharm.
The current liquidity situation is tight but ANB bank has not sold any of Musclepharm's treasury stock in it's escrow account.
Furthermore, most of Musclepharm's Q1 loss was an accounting loss according to GAAP. EBITDA was only slightly in the red which ain't too bad considering that Musclepharm had to dig itself out of a hole from Q4....
It does appear that Musclepharm has some issues meeting demand, but as long as it can grow revenue with $10 million per quarter, the marketing expense is not wasted.
H.I.G capital should buy Musclepharm for $100-140 million net of debt.
Musclepharm is a gem combined with Capstone Nutrition.
It's never been available through the Costco web-site as far as I know.
I anticipate max 2 million share dilution after AGM....and I anticipate a little more restrictive employee equity compensation from next year and beyond.
The Bloomberg article and the margin call last Wednesday were highly embarrassing for the company, so you should expect that the board is gonna step up efforts to limit stock price dilution from stock grants and from other non value creating purposes....to improve the company's liquidity position and to increase the trustworthiness among creditors and investors
Just my five cents...
Musclepharm's US sales are essentially unchanged from last year's level....so, the stock should be back at $8.
The drop in International sales affected all major competitors and intensified domestic competition, but Musclepharm defended it's position reasonably well in the market place.
I like what I'm seeing. This is definitely an improvement from Q4.
I think it is positive that Musclepharm is defending it's sales in America....and that the decline in sales from last year's very strong Q1 sales can be explained almost entirely by a decline in international sales.
It makes perfect sense to me that Musclepharm focuses on America and a few International markets with strong currencies like UK and Australia right now.
Many purchasers from Brazil and elsewhere, probably delayed purchases for later, given the multi year lows of the Euro, the Brazilian real and the Canadian Dollar during Q1....so, more sales from there should be expected in Q2 after the 5-10% strengthening of these currencies versus the US dollar.
With Musclepharm's future endorsement and sponsorship contracts, it's natural to focus primarily on America though.
Musclepharm's goal should be to break even on US sales alone, and let international sales be the cream on the top...with $10-15 million contribution each quarter.
The can for Musclepharm Energy Sport needs a redesign.
The big Musclepharm logo above "Energy Sport" looks weird to me.
Why doesn't the Energy drink have a product name like Combat?
I mean, Musclepharm is primarily a whey protein company and not an energy drink company.....so, it would be like Coca Cola making a Coca Cola Energy Sport....which would dilute the coca cola brand name.
Call it CRUSH ENERGY or something similar....but don't use Musclepharm as a product name..
down here in South Florida, I have only seen the Iron Whey at Walmart in Coconut Creek (Northern Broward County).
Where I live, I have seen the Iron Cuts....but no other products. Right now, Cytosport's Muscle Milk whey protein seems to be quite popular at Walmart....a product btw, that is not on BB.com top 50....even if highly popular.