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ARRAY moved strongly from the teens to the 20s over several weeks, then one fine morning buy out at 48
Yes, exactly. Have already sold calls against 15% of my AUPH shares.
MMs will throw cold water on this before Sept options expiration.
Of course, buy out can happen at any time, but I am hoping for one or two more quarters of revenue growth to really get the price up.
Happy either way, whatevs
It's not up to Peter Greenleaf
Targeting BAFF and APRIL in SLE and other antibody-associated diseases
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28215100/
They have no choice but to go it alone. The delta between current stock price and acceptable buyout value is too large to overcome currently. Unless company and shareholders are willing to accept $25 - $30 they have to keep hustling.
This approval is for SLE, not lupus nephritis
Shouldn't have an immediate direct effect on AUPH. However, my hope is that with more new drugs coming online that rheums (and nephs) will become broadly more accepting of new treatment options.
As an aside, I've been surprised at the lack of enthusiasm for voclosporin from physicians online (at least among those who post their opinions online). Never knew that rheums and nephs are so hidebound, especially relative to their peers in other specialties (Onc and Neuro come to mind).
More good news for pts with SLE: anifrolumab approved for Mod/Sev SLE
https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2021/saphnelo-approved-in-the-us-for-sle.html
Reminder this evening that getting a drug across the FDA finish line is a major accomplishment for a small biotech. Cheers to AUPH team for getting the job done
I don't own any ARDX, but feel bad for them and their investors. With such a capricious FDA, all small bios may be uninvestable...
Sorry to see you go BR..
LoL, perfect response
Girlfriends... they're always listening, even when you think they're not
I've been doing the same, selling puts and covered calls
Good news today if it translates into revenue (only thing that matters now). Should be interesting trading tomorrow with options expiration. Wonder if they will be able to hold it under 13?
Expectations were too high. We need at least three full quarters of revenue data. Also, docs are not following this situation as closely as we all are. The data needs to get published and presented.
Rare patients have clinical and even biopsy evidence of SLE but are ANA and/or anti dsDNA negative. The rheumatologist will have to wrangle with the insurance company for them.
Most SLE patients (like 95%) are ANA and/or dsDNA positive.
Robert Huizinga doing the webcast? Anyone else find that a little odd? I've been a shareholder for >4 yrs and he's never done a webcast for the company like this in that time. Maybe they wanted to put a Canadian out front for Bloom Burton? Genuinely puzzled, where's PG?
See HZNP RECIPE PR from yesterday for an example of how to write a better PR
Poorly written PR this morning. I read the blurb and first paragraph and still had no idea what they were talking about. Way to bury the lede AUPH! I hope their marketing isn't like that too
All those Apr call buyers are a bit delusional. I'd love to be wrong, but we need a few data points (like 3 full quarters of sales) before we can really gauge the launch.
I hope this co gets bought out before AURORA II. Don't want to have to hold through another trial readout!
Don't you all own other bios? The whole sector is down, nothing to do with AUPH.
..with diamond hands!
1.3B was full year 2019. Full year 2020 preliminary number is 2.1B. Trading at 8.5x revenue seems reasonable. Combined peak rev for their 2 currently marketed products is 3.5B.
One other thing to know about $HZNP is that there is a temporary shortage in one of their drugs due to COVID-19 vaccine production. This may lead to a dip in revs in Q1 2021. If accompanied by a dip in stock price, I will probably take that as an opportunity to start a position
Congratulations to everyone who had the fortitude to stick with this one these last few years. Looking forward to the market response to the favorable label tomorrow (approval was a foregone conclusion).
I just rewatched the $HZNP JP Morgan presentation and I highly recommend it to anyone who is interested in what $AUPH could look like as a standalone pharma company. It is also a glimpse into what we will own after the cash and stock merger with $HZNP (:-P).
Tim Walbert's presence on our BOD is a great blessing for us. He has demonstrated success in launching/commercializing rare disease drugs.
Cheers!
Bought more at 13.01
Give it a rest Lloyd
My main focus is on the science and his expertise with cyclophilin inhibitors.
HEPA, take another peek today
Antibiotic stocks.... Many tears have been shed over these. Noble cause, bad investment. See
NBRV
TTPH
AKAO
CEMP
ETTX
Probably more...
They all think they will be the next Cubist.
Denner is no dummy, at least ITRM has that going for them. Still, not touching it
HEPA is another company to keep an eye on, if for no other reason than their lead molecule CRV431 is VOC's cousin. They are trialing it in NASH associated liver fibrosis. Low dose phase 2a data expected before EOY, they are expecting to move into higher dose with hope of efficacy in 2021.
They just did a substantial secondary offering at $1.50. CEO was founder of Isotechnika.
Anyone know how/where to access the SABCS 2020 posters?
I'm also in ONCY (cost basis 1.54 :-P). May see some interesting data this morning out of San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium!
Just so everyone is aware. The FSGS trial was abandoned months ago due to poor recruitment
LOL-- this is one of your weaker provocations, you're better than this!
Get back out there and give it another go!
I'm a newcomer to the options game, so I just bought the shares outright back then.
I think that the next few months are going to be a very exciting time for Aurinia.
If you haven't already, have a listen to today's investor presentation. Mr. Greenleaf was in rare form. Open a bottle of wine, light some candles and invite your wife to listen with you!
Yep.
Remember that time we dropped to the low 4s two months before the positive phase 3 data came out. This feels a bit like that.
Yes. I've been selling puts every month for the last few months with strikes in the 12-15 range. Assigned or not I'm happy either way.
Added at 13.25. people are ridiculous