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he Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state factory activity. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share of firms reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero,suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
*U.S. Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index Huge Miss*
Expected 2.0, Actual -1.5
Very surprised to see Chicago PMI missed by that much.
True...it was a nice pop...just hopefully a miracle will occur and we'll see it rise come Monday.
We're losing the love...looks like futures heading down right now.
Miners are starting to move now.
Seriously...we should be up at least 2 dollars based on this move...Gold just broke 1283 and heading for a 1286 break which is also another pivot point.
We desperately need to close above 1280...that is a big pivot point
I go out for lunch and this breaks 1280 and were barely moving....the fact that we broke 1280 is big...now can we close above it....I guess I should go get a philly cheese steak more often so we all can win lol.
Looks like miners want to go down now...
GOLD really looks like it wants to to test 1276 and 1280 resistance points...Looks strong so far.
makes no sense, that's for sure.
Am I smoking something or is gold up right now?
A surge in soybean exports helped to shrink the trade deficit in the third quarter. Exports increased at a 10 percent rate, the biggest rise since the fourth quarter of 2013. As a result, trade contributed 0.83 percentage point to GDP growth after adding a mere 0.18 percentage point in the April-June quarter.
There are concerns that the soybean-driven export growth spurt could reverse in the fourth quarter. Economists, however, also note that exports of capital and consumer goods have been growing strongly in recent months.
FROM CNBC
LOL - You're telling me I better be buying soybeans because that's where all the extra GDP came from...Come on lol!
IT's funny...several people have come out and said they believe the fed will hold off on a December hike just to get more growth so that when the hike does come, it has a decreased impact on the market and other indicators.
Frankly, that's the wrong way to think, but these days the Fed doesn't even make decisions off reliable economic data.
Those are good and valid points. Exactly and the US dollar is down right now. I think we may see skeptical trading. That number is just laughable
Were on the verge that's for sure. Just wait and see what happens if she gets elected.
I guarantee it gets revised down below 2.5% with all the data that's come out since last quarter, there is no way in hell GDP grew 2.9%
That's GDP number that was just released is absurd. There's absolutely no way that's a truthful number
Clearly I'm wrong again. Looked as if miners were stabilizing and preparing for a move north.
Gold about to test 1272...thinking we see another 1273 test here shortly.
From now until close, we'll see miners and gold move up...predict we'll be close to even by close or slightly red (~1 - 1.5%).
Back over 1270....good sign...still needs to break 1280 before anything can really happen.
Gold getting stronger.
Anytime...happy to share my opnions.
Small world it is. I have seen my fair share of things at MCK and I left earlier this year to take a new job.
Everthing always works out in the end.
The market is pretty red...but gold is holding green pretty strongly albeit is being barely green...something else is affecting equities worldwide. Even companies I have that had good earnings are down.
No problem at all...I use investing.com for two reasons.
1 - It aggregates all the data and reports it very quickly when compared against release time as well as it auto refreshes
2 - It provides real time quotes for all equities.
As far as the 2.5% GDP number...Per some of the other posters, I think 2.5% is a bit high...even with some of the data that comes out, my expectation is 1.8 to 1.9%.
While you would expect oil to cause that, there are also some other things to consider...cheaper oil may make people to drive more etc...so there is a small offset but cheaper oil for consumers should drive expendable income spending.
I have many opinions of why I disagree with equity pricing and market action currently, but It still doesn't change my opinion that sometime next year probably in 3rd to 4th quarter, we will see something bubble and burst.
In January this year we saw a healthcare and biotech bubble burst and you'll see for example MCK, has lost almost 100 dollars of share. Now of course some of that is due to earnings and news out, but losing 30% is massive in terms of shareprice.
*Disclosure - I worked for MCK for several years and currently hold a position but am not employed by the company*
Pending home sales 1.5% vs 1.2% expected.
This move is definitely fishey, that's for sure...hopefully it was pushed down to cover and we'll see a steady rise the rest of the day.
So much for a potential good day. Looks like someone knows something and miners are crashing. Not quite sure wy all of a sudden but we'll see soon I'm sure.
Consumer confidence beat forecast by a decent amount.
Today's Data so far:
Current Forecast Previous
01:00 CHF Consumption Indicator (Sep) 1.59 1.53
02:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q3) 18.91% 19.30% 20.00%
03:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Oct) 103.0 102.1 102.1
03:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Oct) 108.0 108.6
03:00 EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Sep) 5.0% 5.1% 5.1%
03:00 EUR Private Sector Loans (YoY) 1.8% 1.9% 1.8%
03:30 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
03:30 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3) 2.3% 2.1% 2.1%
03:30 GBP Index of Services 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
03:30 HKD Exports (MoM) (Sep) 3.6% 0.8%
03:30 HKD Imports (MoM) (Sep) 4.1% 2.8%
03:30 HKD Trade Balance -39.7B -32.1B
04:00 EUR Italian Wage Inflation (YoY) (Sep) 0.6% 0.6%
04:00 EUR Italian Wage Inflation (MoM) (Sep) 0.0% 0.0%
04:10 EUR Italian 6-Month BOT Auction -0.295% -0.257%
04:30 ZAR PPI (YoY) (Sep) 6.6% 7.2% 7.2%
04:30 ZAR PPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.3% 0.2% -0.1%
05:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct) 21 -2 -8
07:00 BRL Unemployment Rate 11.8% 12.0% 11.8%
07:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 2,039K 2,068K 2,054K
07:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
07:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) -0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
07:30 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Sep) 0.7% -0.7%
07:30 USD Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Sep) -1.2% 0.3% 1.2%
07:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 258K 255K 261K
07:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 253.00K 252.00K
08:00 RUB Central Bank reserves (USD) 391.3B 391.4B
39 min USD Bloomberg Consumer Confidence 41.3
49 min USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 1.2% -2.4%
49 min USD Pending Home Sales Index (Sep) 108.5
09:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 73B 77B
10:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Oct) 3 6
10:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) 15
12:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction 1.389%
16:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (Nov) 76
18:30 JPY Household Spending (YoY) (Sep) -3.0% -4.6%
18:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Sep) 0.6% -3.7%
18:30 JPY Jobs/applications ratio (Sep) 1.37 1.37
18:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) -0.5% -0.5%
18:30 JPY National CPI (YoY) (Sep) -0.5% -0.5%
18:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) -0.5% -0.5%
18:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Oct) -0.5% -0.5%
18:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Sep) 3.1% 3.1%
19:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) 6.1%
19:30 AUD PPI (YoY) (Q3) 0.8% 1.0%
19:30 AUD PPI (QoQ) (Q3) 0.6% 0.1%
19:30 SGD URA Property Index (QoQ) (Q3) -1.50%
Legend
I'm in 13.50
Very interesting data out. Could be a good day here.
Couldn't hold a support line, so it makes sense the bottom line fell out...was really hoping and thinking a move back up would take place as there was certainly some strength, but that was quickly killed.
It'll certainly be interesting to see where this goes come election night. Either way, I see gold rising into the next year as I still strongly feel equity markets are overdone and a correction is needed. Let alone a correction in the USD.
Anyways...we shall see what happens. Can't be right all the time. lol
Should see green by end of day for sure based on strength unless news (not data) or something else is said to spook it...showing lots of strength and a willingness to move up.
Just as expected...starting to move our way back up.
Yup...data driven...we're actually not seeing as big as a beat down as I thought, so we could move back up after a little downtrend.
PMI and Home sales are the biggest factor in play today. Let's home there on the side of gold roaring north and the USD heading lower.
Keep in mind the dollar currently is also moving down...another good sign for us.
The numbers today will drive the price...hoping we see some bad marks to push gold through another few resistances. Keep in mind, we have now fully entered earnings season and there were some big misses and some big beats so far so it will be interesting to see how we continue to move. Looking forward to a good day, but will post economic numbers when they come out and go from there.
Dude, you really need to relax....just because its not setting new highs in a trading day is fine....thats called volatility and is normal. You don't want to set new highs all the time, you want it trade in a range sometimes.
The slower the rise the more sustainable the move....