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Shrinking profits? Excuse me, walbert, but you'll need to show me some evidence of this.
Just my 2¢...take it or leave it.
Sure, but surely you remember 2012...right? $29 -> $19.
Sort of like using a 90nm M1 pitch on your freshly-minted "22nm" process?
Also, this "bubble gum and duct tape" has done a great job of whipping Intel's products. There's much more to this game than manufacturing. Intel's SoC teams need to pull it together before that process lead is anything but academic.
That capex is necessary for the rather nice growth that TSMC will see over the next several years
Quark is a bloated pig
The fact of the matter is that everybody else's technique of using an old larger BEOL with smaller FinFETs at 14-16nm is a colossal sign of development failure, it is unheard of up to now.
The foundry problem for fabless companies is not that they won't attempt to keep up with Intel but that they will be too costly for them in doing so.
The people at investment banks are super smart and super well paid.
They don't keep their jobs unless they help the firm make money. Covello serves some useful purpose. You can speculate on what that purpose is given the clearly erroneous estimates he has made and which you documented. That is - How does his employer make money from clearly wrong prognostications?
If that's the cost of manufacturing, how can Intel avoid the trend?
And if Intel can avoid the trend, how much more did their special recipe cost in R&D and when is the breakeven?
isn't it interesting that Intel waited till after the close on Friday to announce workforce reductions?
Companies such as AAPL, QCOM, BRCM, AMD etc are lined up outside TSMC's front door anxiously awaiting their next product..
I don't see the Capex growing at the same rate.
I feel the same way about how you dismiss Intel's approx. $20b/year of SG&A expenses (10x that of TSMC) when you folks highlight Intel's Gross Margin vs. TSMC's, as if it's so, so meaningful.
Get real. It gives a company some security to do things irrespective of their shareholders but the real question is whether putting the money in is a good investment in future profits. No matter how much money Intel makes it is the same question, will investing in the new process or product pay better than the alternatives. And that is determined by whether people will pay a good price for the product. If the rug was pulled from under TSMC it would be because people did not believe it would pay in the future. And as I said that would be if the product did not sell well enough at a good enough price.
Really the whole argument about free cash flow is irrelevant.
.....I think they already surprised us building a large fab they don't now need........you want another surprise from them?... really??
Did I miss anything? I am a slow learner after all...
I would like to see Ashraf continue to provide his thoughts on this board.
The article was not about Intel but its competition and had useful facts in it.
I read it because I think it is an interesting and informative site. Please just ignore anything I write if you feel you only wish to read stuff that is always pro Intel as I can't guarantee that and I certainly consider myself a less reliable source than them.
I have one of those now. It is called a wife. Does a lot more
than that too.
What's does? Misleading statements?
Cash & Cash equivalents were $5.674b in their 4Q report, down from $8.478b in 2012.
Perhaps they meant non-GAAP or some other kind of cash...
I don't know why anyone would read any of the grossly biased chronic Intel bashing from semiwiki.
....cause you are standing right there beside them.....
Intel Q4 2013 Earnings Review
I've reviewed everything now and as usual things look much better if you do actually look at all of the information. I know a lot of people already have an opinion and don't feel the need for any facts to back it up.
I'm seeing a lot to like going forward. I think it will just take a while for BK's tenure at CEO to have substantial impact. But I think 2014 will be a year with some major breakthroughs.
I continue to see the beginning of volume production of 14nm as a game changer. This is going to be a big story this year.
I see the continuing economic problems of TSMC at the 20nm and 16nm nodes with density and pricing as a very big 2014 story. Their CapEx spending is crushing them and I see this year being the time when their knees finally start to buckle.
I see Intel with a huge amount of product development and a lot of this in the IoT (Internet of Things) area. This is a multi-trillion dollar market and Intel appears properly focused on it. I see product data polling within the industrial internet being the single largest potential area.
I think BK's extreme focus on creating products across all categories and price points is going to bear fruit this year.
And I think Intel has some exciting products that play well into the next level of computing, AI/Digital Personal Assistant/3D, gestures, IoT, sea of processors evolution.
There has never been a more exciting time in computing. It looks like we are picking up the pace.
I'm looking forward to having an intelligent, conversational 3D/holographic digital assistant who will keep track of my books, audio books, movies and internet news while keeping me where I need to be when I need to be there. Who will point out things of interest by saying, "Hey, this is funny..." or "Hey, this is interesting." And who will give me a modicum of grief with comments like "I can't believe your caloric intake today" or "Don't you think you should get some exercise now?"
It's coming.
Intel Cash Flow from the Q4 2013 Conference Call
Source: Seeking Alpha
The business continued to generate significant cash with almost $21 billion of cash from operations in 2013. Total cash balance at the end of the year was roughly $20 billion, up approximately $2 billion from a year ago. We purchased $11 billion in capital assets, paid $4.5 billion in dividends and repurchased over $2 billion of stock.
And this is what clearly distinguishes Intel from TSMC.
Quote:
RobertG, can you point me to any 20nm mobile product announcements? Thanks!
Robert, don't try too hard. They're coming, and it's more fun here when they come as surprises.
Here is one from last November:
Qualcomm Technologies Announces Next Generation Qualcomm Snapdragon 805 “Ultra HD” Processor
Mobile Technology Leader Announces its Highest Performance Processor Designed to Deliver the Highest Quality Mobile Video, Camera and Graphics to Qualcomm Snapdragon 800 Tier
NEW YORK – November 20, 2013 – Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) today announced that its subsidiary, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc., introduced the next generation mobile processor of the Qualcomm® Snapdragon™ 800 tier, the Qualcomm Snapdragon 805 processor, which is designed to deliver the highest-quality mobile video, imaging and graphics experiences at Ultra HD (4K) resolution, both on device and via Ultra HD TVs. Featuring the new Adreno 420 GPU, with up to 40 percent more graphics processing power than its predecessor, the Snapdragon 805 processor is the first mobile processor to offer system-level Ultra HD support, 4K video capture and playback and enhanced dual camera Image Signal Processors (ISPs), for superior performance, multitasking, power efficiency and mobile user experiences.
The Snapdragon 805 processor is Qualcomm Technologies’ newest and highest performing Snapdragon processor to date, featuring:
- Blazing fast apps and web browsing and outstanding performance: Krait 450 quad-core CPU, the first mobile CPU to run at speeds of up to 2.5 GHz per core, plus superior memory bandwidth support of up to 25.6 GB/second that is designed to provide unprecedented multimedia and web browsing performance.
- Smooth, sharp user interface and games support Ultra HD resolution: The mobile industry’s first end-to-end Ultra HD solution with on-device display concurrent with output to HDTV; features Qualcomm Technologies’ new Adreno 420 GPU, which introduces support for hardware tessellation and geometry shaders, for advanced 4K rendering, with even more realistic scenes and objects, visually stunning user interface, graphics and mobile gaming experiences at lower power.
- Fast, seamless connected mobile experiences: Custom, efficient integration with either the Qualcomm® Gobi™ MDM9x25 or the Gobi MDM9x35 modem, powering superior seamless connected mobile experiences. The Gobi MDM9x25 chipset announced in February 2013 has seen significant adoption as the first embedded, mobile computing solution to support LTE carrier aggregation and LTE Category 4 with superior peak data rates of up to 150Mbps. Additionally, Qualcomm’s most advanced Wi-Fi for mobile, 2-stream dual-band Qualcomm® VIVE™ 802.11ac, enables wireless 4K video streaming and other media-intensive applications. With a low-power PCIe interface to the QCA6174, tablets and high-end smartphones can take advantage of faster mobile Wi-Fi performance (over 600 Mbps), extended operating range and concurrent Bluetooth connections, with minimal impact on battery life.
- Ability to stream more video content at higher quality using less power: Support for Hollywood Quality Video (HQV) for video post processing, first to introduce hardware 4K HEVC (H.265) decode for mobile for extremely low-power HD video playback.
- Sharper, higher resolution photos in low light and advanced post-processing features: First Gpixel/s throughput camera support in a mobile processor designed for a significant increase in camera speed and imaging quality. Sensor processing with gyro integration enables image stabilization for sharper, crisper photos. Qualcomm Technologies is the first to announce a mobile processor with advanced, low-power, integrated sensor processing, enabled by its custom DSP, designed to deliver a wide range of sensor-enabled mobile experiences.
“Using a smartphone or tablet powered by Snapdragon 805 processor is like having an UltraHD home theater in your pocket, with 4K video, imaging and graphics, all built for mobile,” said Murthy Renduchintala, executive vice president, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc., and co-president, QCT. “We’re delivering the mobile industry’s first truly end-to-end Ultra HD solution, and coupled with our industry leading Gobi LTE modems and RF transceivers, streaming and watching content at 4K resolution will finally be possible.”
The Snapdragon 805 processor is sampling now and expected to be available in commercial devices by the first half of 2014.
Could you show us the last 4 years cash flows?....you're standing there right by them.....please.
Now let me switch the deal to 20-SoC. That's another exciting news that we have I want to share with you. 20-SoC is -- have launched
Why assume it will be much different? I think things are going a little faster but not anything that changes the overall picture very much.
You don't blame people for borrowing to grow their business!
If 16FF is in "risk production" in 1H 2014, then see you in 2H 2015 for "volume"
What part of their finances are you unable to comprehend? They spell it out pretty clearly.
TSMC's 16nm FinFET has entered risk production
That is past tense, not future tense.
I guess I'll just have to take a look at Intel's borrowing activity tomorrow to compare.
re: TSMC dividends..keep in mind they pay an annual dividend (i.e. once per year)...so anybody saying their dividends > FCF should recalculate using four quarters of FCF...
TSMC's 16nm FinFET has entered risk production, with volume production scheduled to kick off within one year, according to the foundry chipmaker. Newly-appointed co-CEO Mark Liu said at TSMC's annual supply chain management forum that the foundry is looking to ramp up 16nm production ahead of schedule.
Qualcomm announced that it'd be sampling during 1H 2014 and shipping in 2H 2014 at its analyst day. 20nm is coming this year, but I expect it will come when Intel's 14nm is out and about.