I think NKTR's is slam dunk recom approval. I do

PGNX/SLXP: not a slam dunk but if ADCOM panel is not on drugs, they should vote either NO CVOT at all or just do post marketing study for x # of years. AZN recommended 5 years of post marketing study.

AZN also said pre approval study would take 7 years - impractical and quite unnecessary. that is 90B company talking there. AZN exec also did a summary for all sponsors at the end summarizing why CV risk just isn't there and again offering post marketing as an alternative to satisfy FDA

with 24 panel members and only 3 cardiologists, I say vote is favorable for NKTR and PGNX

draft from ADCOM came out already to Salix. their VP commented on it earlier today to Forbes. It's on yahoo board message.

the way market is, when anything come out, people just blindly push it down (whether they understand it or not). about the time Salix VP commented to Forbes, we went down hard from 3.6 to 3.4's and lower. and never recovered.

actual briefing doc should come out Monday (2 day prior to event). not Friday. that's too early.

the adcom will be fine I think. notes, I am not sure, as they are always tough to read. refer to CHTP and MNKD.

we will prob have at least 1 short covering day - tomor or Friday. 30-40 cent move. that's where the money is made.

and if u hold through adcom and they recom approval, then a big pop into 5.5's to 6 to fill the gap.

a bit late for that. has already broken down few days ago when it broke below 3.92..

but due to FDA ADCOM, charts don't mean anything few next 1 week or so.

it's simple. ADCOM OK; up ADCOM not OK; down

forget technical for now

kei or others:
what is the expectation for ADCOM? seems from Scott Matusow's article that there is a higher than average expectation for ADCOM approval. Scott thinks FDA 'screwed up and is trying to save face'? I do agree that it is unusual to have an ADCOM with sNDA that got a CRL 2 years ago. what's the story?

the ADCOM notes will prob come out 3 days prior ... so maybe on Monday AM on 9th or Friday 6th June?

any insights on ADCOM would be appreciated.

what are price targets out there w/ ADCOM thumbs up?

Dew.
wish I found your posts one year earlier on ENTA. you did a nice job there. before ENTA is on the radar for any investors.

any other good stock ideas at the moment?

thanks

Dew:

is your Dec 2013 ENTA valuation the latest one out there?
any change from that calculation ?

looks like the market is starting to recognize ABBV and ENTA stock price. ABBV is near at 52 week high and steadily rising daily. Same w/ ENTA. Nothing parabolic (which I hate) but steady 2-3% rise daily for the past week. Once we close above $40, we will re-test 52 wk high

BSAV.

thanks. ATRS board has gone to you know what (YHB).. I have just left. But I hold 300K shares there cost basis 2.9

I hold 80K HZNP @ 12

I hold 20K ENTA @39

HERO - am looking at it. First non bio play so I would need some time ( in recent years anyway).

like that DC is in at much higher prices I think.

does not seem like it is going anywhere soon but in 6 months or more, I see 50% potential.

anyway, will do DD

happy long wknd. taking kids to Milwaukee river walk for 2 nights

possibly another close above BB (Bol band) if we close above 39.1.
think we might steadily rise in this manner to test 52 week high in 1-2 weeks. should hear FDA acceptance in June. it might not be a pps moving event, but will act as a firm base to go even higher into the summer and fall

disclosure:
22K share long (but cost basis is rather not as attractive as many longer holders... mine is 39).

near term: expect $45
q1 2015: expect $60

glta

Go ARMY!

Bsav

nice to see u here. I am old ATRS friend posting here for the first time. If I understood DC correctly, we expect more of the same range bound pressure for some time? been looking to get in, but the chart looks ugly and as a simple man, I just don't understand what's going on w/ all the manipulation.

what is your suggestion on timing of getting in and what to expect in the coming months

steve

yes, my thoughts were exactly about 1) BO and 2) re-investing the royalty/milestones into other ventures/developments. I absolutely prefer #1 by ABBV, but one never know what will happen.

Given the stream of milestone and royalty payments ABBV must make to ENTA (hundreds of millions over the next several years) it makes perfect sense to buy them out sooner than later, but again who knows. I suspect a BO can be had for $1.25B or so at this time. If wait another year, ENTA will be trading at $1.5B market cap and would cost more like $2B or more to buy.

That's the thesis I am buying.

Also the downside is minimal in my view as we get closer to FDA and European approvals within next 2-3 quarters.

thanks for your insights

tks DEW. yes, I have read your last 50 posts on ENTA on ihub. very informative and helps my DD. I have followed ENTA for 1year. was going to enter at $20 but side tracked w/ other stuff and missed the train.

was hoping for dip but not happening much. I only have 2K shares so far. trying to add 20K shares more soon

only concern I have is what the end game is for ENTA. buy out? fund new developments from royalty/milestone payments which will be huge in few years cumulatively...

normally market does not reward license based companies as much, so I am wondering what the future looks like in 5 years.

Dew

what is next catalyst ? FDA acceptance of NDA? when? June perhaps? then Oct-Nov FDA decision? is there anything else to rally the stock?

even w. two major NDA filings in US and Europe the share price has been more or less range bound from low 30's to high 30's for a while now.

what would break this thing out in ur view

dream on. maybe $4/share. just kidding.

Medec won't be buying out anyone. Paul is too above that kind of thing.

I agree w/ Bio Pete that this will likely drag on a while. best scenario is delaying Medec for several years.

TD
good points.. i too heard much reassuring words from Le Roux and I have noticed the subtle (or not so subtle) confidence in peak sales from 100-200M --> 200M --> 200M + and in an accelerated time frame (2+ years). All what an investor wants to hear.

still, the proof is in the pudding i suppose. Until some real Rx numbers, trend, week to week / month to month #s are behind us, we (the share) will likely be stagnant for 1/2 year or more I think. Only then, we will prob get real meaningful updates from company, updates and revised call from existing analysts, new coverage, and equally if not more importantly, gain additional credibility in the work they are doing in QST / QSM because of executional success of Otrexup. With Otrexup success, which is the 1st drug ATRS has launched independently, imagine what they can do w/ subsequent commercial product launch with this team of veterans....

No idea how the pps will perform during this waiting period, but really do hope we get 1 or more pertinent developmental news with Teva / PFE. I don't think they will move the pps greatly but might be enough to get us over $5 level that we've failed twice now. 3rd might be charm.

based on LeRoux (might be stretching it a bit), we might get some real update in the next Q call. I sure hope so.

I maintain my position that for PPS, 2015 is the breakout year in my view, and not 2014.

TD or anyone w/ question on Rx #

Paul himself said it best. Listen to Paul. Board posters not so much... Paul is usually right on with most of his comments or predictions.

Paul said "Jun/Jul" period for any data related comment. That would be ~ 5 to 6 months into launch - reasonable period for some real forecast analysis.

LeRoux today re-iterated the same. The RA patients only see their RA doctro once every 3 months on average (some once every 4-5 months). They come in to see their doctor, get consult on Otrexup potentially, try the samples, return in 4-5-6 weeks and go from there.

Anyone who is pressing for data now or reporting data from MIS or Symphony needs to relax. No data means anything until Jun-July period. Certainly not Feb or March. April May weekly data might mean something for those who want to speculate (and plenty will).

I liked the call today. Le Roux talks easily enough for my liking. Never liked Paul's presentation much (albeit always confident in his tone).

In any case, I had unloaded 50K shares some time ago, and bought back 25K this week. Still holding a ton. Nevertheless I am looking to exit in the next 90 days (preferrably when my shares turn long term investment for the ones I am holding. The 50K I sold turned long term earlier. Still making ~200K paper profit on this one.

Good luck to all, as always. I think despite my desire to leave this stock, ATRS will do just fine. I just need greater risk/reward profile than ATRS to achieve my investment objectives.

as some have said before, everyday is a bargain buying opportunity for ATRS.

cynical? yes! who isn't with this stock behavior. it's pretty amazing even for a non-typical bio stock like ATRS. market is all time high; really positive market and most bios are following; only ones that are not are taking a breather from 100% rise in the past months (50..70..100% whatever).

yet, I suppose we have risen from 4.4's to 4.9 (for how many times now?), so we are taking a breather...

absolutely horrible for market such as this.

absolutely cannot wait until rest of my shares are out... still have too many.

nearly pulled the trigger today but didn't. I am targeting Wed to pull or not. Why? I do not know.. it's not like they will say anything enlightening at the conference, but if I waited this long, might as well...

should have followed JR out of this stock and went to HZNP... what a stock there... I think other than Ryman, most of us really over-estimated the PPS growth opportunity for this stock in 2013 and 2014...

I have to say I was mistaken... hasn't happened often but I believe I bought too early in 2013.

guys, i have the same concern.

unfortunately, i have made up my mind to exit ATRS in the coming days/weeks. I firmly believe I am in this stock too early. I think there is plenty of time later in the year to buy back in for 2015.

whoever said 2014 is the break out year.. it's yes and no. It is a breakout year due to drug launch, but for share price, breakout year 'might' be 2015~2016.

I have no crystal ball so I don't know if we will break $5 and head higher in short term or go back down to $4.4's as you predict.

Technically, ATRS is in good place. So as long as next week conference and Q call are good, my sense is that we will re-test $5 for the third time. Who knows.. 3rd time is charm?

All I know is that I will prob exit all remaining position in ATRS if this happens.

I just see too many interesting stocks out there to keep money in this stock. Nothing wrong w/ ATRS' 20%/annum potential gain. Not bad at all, except it is not up to my risk/reward profile that I seek. I am looking at 30-50% gain per year on my portfolio (whether i achieve that or not is the hard part).

good luck to all as always, but buying time to get out of this one.

other stocks i am in or exploring:

HALO (in)
PGNX (waiting til it drops more after secondary offering)
ATHX (in)
SGYP (in)

That makes sense RPH.
specialty drugs are typically used in management of specific chronic and/or genetic conditions, and often include injectable or infused drugs (sometimes oral drugs).

From my experience, speciality pharmacy services HAVE to be used for therapies such as, but not limited to, cystic fibrosis, hemophilia, inflammatory bowel disease, HIV, hormonal, immune, oncology, osteoarthritis, osteoporosis, rheumatoid arthritis and pulmonary arterial hypertension.

This is to ensure safer, more cost effective use of specialty medications, and to my knowledge, it is expected for our drug - Otrexup - and will require additional education and close monitoring of the patient's clinical response in collaboration w/ their doctors.

In any case, for me at least, an expected developement.

thanks

good for u. must be liberating to let us know that

i hope they sold the rest by now... (versus will be selling the rest later, affecting the PPS).

as to why? who knows... but doubt it was trying to send a message to the management due to insider planned sales. that makes little sense.

Paul and Jack need to grow their institutions base... it's very disheartening that we've not seen much of that this year

no insider buys when we werre at 3.35-4 range 6 months ago, why would they buy now?

i don't see this group of people at Atrs care about such a thing, sadly.

they prob think they are doing really well - from share performance that is... given where they come from.

thanks ryman

from the 52 week low of march 2013, SI has almost doubled...(more or less).

amazing.

if company continues to execute and deliver, SI will be our friend down the road. it's actually encouraging.

still, this is a huge jump in terms of %, an historical high i suspect.

what do you make of it?

only thing i can say about Martin is that he's a Stanford grad...
his parents are lawyers and are graduates from Harvard. Only reason he went to Stanford versus Harvard is because of Stanford's outstanding football program AND obvious reputation for academics.

it's prob not a stretch to assume this kid has the look of a big rugged football player but an upbringing of a kid that has never known an environment such as the one he found in Miami...

I think both players have issues. I wouldn't want either one on my team.

P.S. I also went to Stanford for MBA and have many friends still during my two years there who had both undergrad and postgrad from Stanford. I can see why Martin is doing what he's doing.

have a good weekend

mike
talking about hazing... what's up w/ all that hazing in NFL - Dolphins..

at West Point, hazing has been tradition for 200 years... a lot worse in the old days... I would be filling up 5000 messages to talk about my Plebe year (freshman year) at West Point w/ the BS that we all took (eating, walking, talking, you name it, hazing was part of our 24 hour lives, 7 days a week).

of course, this was in the 80's.. and from what I heard in the 90's the hazing more or less stopped due to Congressional pressure (in essence, smart people figured out that you didn't have to haze, yell and abuse cadets physically and mentally to make them a great leader of soldiers).

2nd of course, that was all great for cadets going through non-hazing but for the "old graduates" like myself and many thousands others, this wasn't OK... why? "well, they did it to me, and I want to do it to them" mentality... do = hazing...

sounds familiar to what we are reading and listening about NFL locker room crap?

I digress...

well, i suppose i screwed up big time.. don't know how i posted same msg few times.. sorry all

I concur in most part w/ whogo re: expectation.

one of the biggest culprit for our pain currently is due to over-hyped expectation - not just BO (actually think this is not the major reason), but for many calling for ridiculous share movement leading into FDA decision and upon approval - many calling for $7, 8, 10 or even LOKO's famous quote 13 in 2013. There was no way in hell that we were going to see that kind of PPS.

I think many traders and investors alike misunderstand ATRS as a cancer drug company. It is not and we will never move like them.

Re: 2014 earnings. Smith on Smith is conservative but he's more right on!. I agree w/ his forecast for 2014 earnings to be negative. But I think the analysts covering ATRS (on average) also estimate 2014 to be a MINUS year as well, so beyond ever optimstic board posters, the smart ones do not see 2014 as the earnings positive year at all. So, this should not really hurt our stock price (now or later) but it will also not really propel our PPS into the solar system either.

2014 'breakout year' is not because we will be earnings positive but due to actual delivery/execution of the Otrexup, with gradual ramp up of revenues, while ATRS continues to execute other key drug pipeline with QST and QSM. At least this is what I got out of their internal talk of breakout 2014.

Market always looks ahead.... if we get solid Q1 start in revenue and get good Q2 results, then PPS will be just fine...

then as whogo says, I do agree that 2015-2018, if executed well, could really be sweet

Batterup.
daily, there is some short selling. just because there are short selling, it doesn't mean that they know something longs don't. Shorts get caught and get burned all the time in the market, especially in bio tech arena.

as you probably know, longs get greedy (I know I have been guilty of that time to time, especially w/ ATRS on 14th), and of course, shorts get greedy too. it works on both sides.

having said that, i do not know if bottom is in. maybe maybe not; only time will tell.

my sense is if we quickly uptick and get to 200 dma and hold for few days, i think bottom is in. if we don't breach or breach and hold for few days, then i do think we 'might' re-test 3.5 area. Even if re-test, we might still hold the 3.5 area. For some reason we do not, then we will prob test 3.35-3.4 area again (just like several months back).

I have been suggesting to some people who hold ATRS and are under water, IF they want to get out, get out at the $4 level as I feel there is a high likelihood that we will reach that level (technically driven). But I do not have the same confidence that we will hold that level for another leg up. These are people that are so frustrated that they are going to get out no matter what and are looking for an exit.

Personally for me, I intend to hold at least until Q1 C/C to see how things are going... then re-assess (hold 100%; reduce; whatever)

If things go as expected with O launch at end of Jan 2014, book minimal Q1 revenue from Otrexup (quantitative), but equally importantly, get actual forecast into Q2 and beyond that is well within expectation or better, coupled with successful clinical studies of QST, then I fully expect PPS will catch up and I will continue to hold into 2014 (and possibly beyond). Q1 2014 might be first ever for us to really get the CEO and CFO to forecast into Q2 and beyond re: Otrexup and that's important.

Lastly, no matter what the short term direction is (whether bottom is in or bottom is a bit lower), TRUE gauge of ATRS share traction will likely be Q1 2014 conference call (April 2014 or whenver they normally hold Q1 call). This is a critical turn I believe and for those that have been holding ATRS for a year or more, it seems ludicrous to miss that kind of event just because of whiplash we are getting today (for no other reason that big money is shorting for their own pleasure and not fundamentally driven)

nice weekend

ryman
i think it's first time for me to be actually 'glad' that there is a gap at 4.01... imagine that...

thanks for the info.. i thought there was a good explanation there.

Oregon lost..not time for AL to lose to LSU this weekend.

that would make my day.

bird.. i sure hope that will come...

we want/need institutions here. but at this price level, that won't happen. everything points to 2nd half 2014 for further validation.

all matter of time.

well, hope so lucy.
but not many thought we would be revisiting 3.5 level within 4 weeks of FDA approval. and this stock is really good at gap filling.

having said that, i thought ryman said there is no more gap below, other than when we were known as AIS (before my time).

Ryman?

ryman, is there still a gap at 2.96 level (from early june 2012)?
wasn't here then, but this is what luvgrowth is referring to in his/her post.

tks

forget 2.97.. how about 1.97?
or .97...

or .07...

my advice is as helpful as yours...

why aren't you on yahoo board. you belong there

hey Affirmed... got it.

I stayed away for several months in yahoo.
just returning now. few good posters left (Ryman, Koufax)
still have grumpy whogo/bio pete, but like what he has to say because he still makes some good calls and knows his stuff.

no idea why we got the 30% beat down.

but i do know we will rock and roll in 2014.

good game Stanford ve Oregon... time to go watch

Bird
maybe you post on yahoo too...

they surely need some up posts... it's a mess there

nice Bird...

Bird.

your simplified concept is well shared by longs here.

based on PPS alone, manipulation or not, the market is not convinced of ATRS marketability and execution.

however, on a deeper analysis of the sizeable RA market, targeted market of Otrexup itself, "under-promisee and over-deliver" approach of ATRS/Paul with a very conservative revenue peak estimate (and ramp up estimates done by few analysts covering ATRS), I FIRMLY believe that by 2nd half 2014, the market will WAKE UP and BELIEVE in ATRS' platform/business model.

this, without a doubt, will happen.

unfortunately, we might play around $3-4 level since 2012 and might still into ealry 2014, I absolutely think by end of 2014 we will no longer be a under the radar special pharma anymore

is Pen #1 now done with clinical trials?

any idea when the filing is done for this?

picked up 20K more shares this morning during capitulation phase..

close to 300K shares now... am i crazy?

wow..

love US of A, but can't believe this kind of shorts manipulating / controlling the action like this.

peace...

how stupid i look not selling at $5...

i do believe though today is capitulation. i hope i am not wrong..

atrs has been so lackluster with any meaningful updates it is hard to have any expectation.
but if we get some, it would be NEWS.

we were at 3.35 level months ago and there were no response from management so even at this 3.8 level,there isn't likely any comment about lackluster share price. he prob will just sound confident about upcoming launch, mention new hire perhaps, and blah blah....

i m more interested in QA session...hopefully there will be a lot more interest from analysts this time than last..

glta.... yahoo board is a mess....pessimism is everywhere

tappy feels so strongly that he posts twice to make his point...

thought you weren't going to make any price targets anymore...

for me, i would like to see us get above $4...then, $5...

when it is trading around 7 or 8 in a year or two, then i will think of double digit..

admire your persistence... you make a better PR man than Jack (half joking .. only half)