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Rubberbanded right back to 516. :s MM wasn't smooth today. That's for sure.
Google and Meta announce scaling back AI due to Nvidia market share? My screener just pushed this notification
Calls got roasted. Puts barely gained. Just chewing up short term Theta.
I hate consolidation days :s necessary evil though.
Up we go
Consolidation. NVDA support locked out dips below 889. Afternoon bounce incoming.
Country governments are fighting over this one company's tech. That's pretty telling in and of itself. Not AMD. Not SMCI. Not TSM. Not Intel.
They're fighting for this one.
1m VWAP 893.63
Below buy
Above sell
That's a typical MM weight.
That and MA20
Bulls. Long wicks on the candles south of 890. No volume there. VWAP was 898. Too much resistance. I'm predicting bounce back up.
Got another cheap entry XD
Bought a ton on that weak dip. This is going to end nicely.
Going to be an interesting ride to Friday. I can't imagine any more major pullbacks until Monday, but you never know.
For the past 50 years, historically the S&P average growth for every year is 10%.
Additionally bulls win 90% of the time.
Short games are short lived in long term growth. There's no secret as to why Hedge funds are for trimming back the main goal of the market, growth. But hey, it's a rally still. Until we see lower weekly highs, it's easy green days.
Buying more when this small dip bottoms. That was a great $50 swing today.
Trimming some here. That's a good morning
Consolidation. Loading up on cheap calls... around about now.
Intraday. Excited haha.
Higher highs, higher lows through the intranasal. Up we go!
Looking at 789 to test the 3 month and 1 year MA20, like the last pullback did on Feb 21st. Will load up more then if it hits.
Well got a nice entry at 822. That was just awesome.
Annual earnings
2024 Estimated: $24.97 eps
2023 $12.39
2022 $3.27
Considering Tesla's hype ran on $3 and had a similar experience in growth during it's climbs upwards.
We're still undervalued.
Yep. Still confused how people can throw more than 10% of their holdings at something and expect good outcomes. The market will always correct one way or another.
[✔️]Is this the next big idea/thing
[✔️]Is it trending with volume
I started with 1,000 decades ago. Worked overtime to add disposable cash for more leverage. Made mistakes and grew it with 1% gains/day mindset. Followed the trends at that point in time. Took out a loan once I felt comfortable in consistency and paid the payments with profits to build credit because my growth beat the APR yield by a lot and it just made sense. When fundamental risk management is in place and people stop treating the market like a casino, life gets so much simpler.
Bulls win 90% of the time. MM's understand that everyone wants to feel like a winner. Breadcrumb trails up and gutt the big game when it's ripe for harvest. Trapper tactics. Works on all animals. Lol. Escalator up, elevator down.
Most of you guys get it. Just can't understand the keyboard warriors that doom and gloom moves like it's Armageddon.
LOOK AT MY PUTZZ! RAWR!
or
EETZ GUNNA FALL CUZ I SAYZ SO!@#!
Just gets comical at times. Even this one guy flexing about cheating on his wife with foreign woman on his hundreds of trips across the globe in the spy boards last summer.
These forums can be civil, when everyone isn't reckless. Us vs MM's. No idea why certain people feel like screaming at us is going to do something to change the outcome. Lol. If it drops, great 7% in currently will turn into 8, 9, 10% that I'll trim later. Trade out puts for shares when it's warranted. We have tools available to use. Sell calls, buy back later. Buy puts that if they expire worthless and it goes up because shares profit, great! Calendars on sideways days. Close them when it gets past certain resistance points. Coca-Cola and Ford calendars do pretty good. Wish more people posted analysis ideas, but everyone is afraid of being wrong I guess.
I posted mine. Watching SPY, the indexes closed higher and are more expensive than the tech conglomerate that fell Friday. That's a perfect strength indicator. Closing just under the prior week's weekly high despite tech selling off. The sell-off on NVDA still above last week's high... I'm laughing at this point.
Last week's weekly lows
771.25 NVDA
504.51 SPY
This week's weekly lows
834.17 NVDA
504.91 SPY
If both don't cross this, we're still up.
Last week's weekly highs
823.00 NVDA
513.29 SPY
This week's weekly highs
974.00 NVDA
518.22 SPY
Higher highs, higher lows.
Exactly. And with S&P closing above last weeks weekly high, regardless of the candlestick, I firmly believe they set up a nice bear trap. I'll be buying into any selling at open. It's another golden opportunity to average down and add exposure for the next leg up. We're near the quarterly rollover on options and expirations, which will have a minor effect on the broader market as well. So that speculation should spice up the books a bit. Apple was up. Tesla hanging out at 175. It's the round number day for some. 511 was an important number on SPY. 504.91 was the resistance I was looking for on that. Green close Monday. Everything in my gutt is telling me short consolidation before we run again, but I have been wrong before.
Heck yeah brother. It's a great feeling when you can say you're in early. Less stress and easier to see the big picture.
Don't fool yourself. Every single institution has enough holdings individually to choke the entire days float and volume on any given day and send all tickers to $1 if they saw fit to do so. Retail has zero power in the market. The good MM's just allow you to believe you have some sort of control.
It's their market. We're just allowed to play in it. Once that's realized, that's when trading gets easier.
Who here remembers the 08 crash? GM shares DUMPING to 0.37. That was a golden opportunity for me. This ticker could go sub 100. It could go to 2000 before the end of the year. That's what hype, trends, speculation, and trading on emotions do.
I was there when FNMA and FDMC Fanny and Freddy had shares owned by the government, while investors sued for legal rights to losses and lost in... 2015? 2016? Regardless, it was may or June of one of those years, but I road it down from the top. 6.16. Watching the order flow get crushed by 1,000,000 share brick by 1,000,000 share brick. 1 penny at a time, after the verdict was reached. It was gutt wrenching, and obvious manipulation as the government liquidated it's holdings from the bailout after the 08 crash. That was housing institutions. It happens on all tickers across the market. Some MM's are much much smoother in their plays, and after the DotCom bubble blackrocks AI algorithm, Alladin, handle it all much smoother. Don't believe me? They publicly sell access to their trading AI. It's been real for 20 years. We crashed in the entirety of 2022, but it was a slow and steady decline, so no one will call it a crash. Algorithms have been doing what Blackrock wanted. Limiting the cliff dives in selloffs. 2023 we bounced back. I called that bottom on Jan 3rd 2023 and the top when Nvidia earnings hit last summer. This traded sideways. Losses had to be booked to negate taxes for institutions. There's always an angle to market plays.
Like Monday, ok so the candle is a clear and evident bear symbol. If Monday is a sell-off, it'll be an even worse candlestick. But Nvidia speculation (feeding the MM enough cash to shut them up and get out of the way) might reverse it. They're hungry little cusses. If we go below 834 I'll ride this down and hedge with some puts, but any downtrend won't last long. Wherever they want the bottom to be we just ride it back up. Still got reserves in the tank and excited to see how far they can push this.
It would be like saying there was a coordinated effort to rob a market maker of his share reserve by pushing prices far beyond reasonable value in an effort to over extend a market, only to later crash it. Word Smith it however you wish. Stock manipulation and speculation drive the market. The trick is to figure out the plan ahead of schedule, and hedge against it accordingly. Risk management skills and not putting everything in all at once is how traders thrive, not survive, in the market.
You're here, very likely, because the angle is that Nvidia is doing really really good and AI chip design is leading the market. Am I right?
If it was 147ish back before the hype began to steamroll, would you still be here? There's always an opposite side to a trade, otherwise all stocks would be worth infinity per share. There's also always a market maker that's willing to choke the float with paper at any given moment and make retail eat shares when they see fit, only to buy them back later for cheaper. Speculation is the epitome of what drives the market. So in a nutshell, yes there is always an angle to try to figure out.
Pretty much. Been holding onto some shares since $6.67 back when Scottrade was still around. Amazon was an absolute steal then too. Tried to get in on Apple but their business model since Mac v PC wars made me want to die inside. Even back then, you were only allowed to do what Steve Jobs said was ok. No freedom for creativity. Still the same old Apple. Other kids were buying beer. It was a waste to me.
A nuclear explosion could set off and I'd be meh about it. Still doesn't mean that I'm over 5% of my portfolio into Nvidia because it's the new shiny thing. It does mean there's another opportunity coming Monday to add more to trim later. 1% gains day by day is all a guy needs. The options gambles are icing on the cake. The AI utility and earnings are all there. Pullbacks here are just blessings in disguise.
"DotCommzzz!" It never changes. Don't mind me though, I'm just a synonym for the death star. Nothing to see here...
Ok inner monolgue aside...
830s are a real possibility for Monday, but MM's won't want to beat up their cash cow too badly and scare away the volatility. Traders get PTSD and all... without volume a MM is just shooting himself in the foot. Volume dries up, they shake it up again.
If this isn't 900 again by late Monday, early Tuesday, I'll be surprised. Although some consolidation prior to March 18th might be the play, and probably the speculation is that it will move after while options shrivel up and die.
Random thoughts figuring out what the MM wants.
Impact in regions vs impact globally. Down 19% YoY for February is the issue.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-shares-skid-after-february-china-sales-slump-2024-03-04/
I'll be averaging down more. Fully intend to hold the position I had previously. Just 100.00 cheaper now. Buying now until close.
Still above 504.91 weekly low. Being early is as bad as being wrong... I was wrong on the bottom, but we're still in a bull market. :P
842 might be incoming. Broke the MA20
Referencing the dot com bubble, check to see where the biggest loser Qualcomm is today and it's valuation. Amazon took that hit too. It erks me when doom and gloomers have flashbacks because of PTSD on bad trades decades in the past come up in today's market. Ride the ups and downs and be prepared to flip hats when the market warrants it. Just like with the perma bears: being too early or too late on timing, jumping out just before a return up from a all correction, is just as bad as being wrong.
For instance I trimmed half of my position when we climbed in the first hour, was prepared to buy more if we opened red and bail if we marked a new weekly low. This is the safest approach to this for anyone jumping in on this and you feel like you missed the bottom. Don't marry stocks if you're only here because of FOMO. Hope this helps anyone that isn't seasoned through the big up/down trends. Stay liquid friends. We're all against the MM.
So... when Chevy Trucks were on 6 month waiting lists in 2016, and semiconductors were the root cause, and that still isn't fully resolved... has nothing to do with chip shortages and production? That's not a ponzi scheme. That's infrastructure issues.
Well that's where we have to disagree. Idiots jump all in and all out. Trimming and repositioning with small chunks of a portfolio at a time is proper day trading. Anyone not doing that is gambling. Long term holdings aren't trading, they're investing, and crashes that rebound are negligible. YoY the S&P500 has returned 10% on average for every year in the past 50 years. So... not a concern. Seeing crashes as bad, in trading, is glass half empty. I look for opportunities.
Yep. Reading charts like they're brain patterns for MM personalities. We hit the monthly MA20 and stalled there. MACD curve coming back up, and sell volume dwindling. Thought for sure we'd test the MA50, so it's a pleasant surprise.
It is. Clearing house slowed down MM's wild west money printing machine, but they still control it all. Until we book a new weekly low, below 834, I'm still bullish. The MM doesn't want to downtrend this yet until we get lower weekly lows than the previous week.
The tail on that hammer is so loooooong. XD
1100 next week end. Price target of 1200 will get hit before earnings. There's no way it doesn't. But once it does. Man this thing will be all over the place. Like putting a costume on a house cat.
Yep. Bottom