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Buyout talk
I probably missed this along the way in the previous threads here or on the Biotech Values board, so forgive me if I'm asking repeated questions.
Bear in mind, I know this is an exercise in conjecture, as Dew was merely positing that Nestle might have been a possible acquirer of RVNC in 2018.
So here are my questions. Why would Nestlé's soon-to-be-former stake in Galderma (via L'Oreal) have prevented Nestle from acquiring Revance last year? Would it be an antitrust thing with respect to Dysport? Nestle purchased L'Oreal's stake in Galderma in 2014, so it wasn't like that was new information if Revance and Nestle were in buyout talks. Or was the lack of an RVNC buyout possibly more likely related to the fact that there was internal debate in Nestle as to whether they truly wanted to carry on with their skincare division vs. focusing more on their other product lines?
If Nestle completes the sale of its skincare division, would they then be a logical acquirer of Revance with antitrust concerns no longer being an issue? OTOH, Nestle probably wouldn't want to go back into the skincare division after selling it away, right? Unless they had to sell Dysport's rights to acquire Daxi? Also, why would EQT Parterns be a potential buyer of RVNC if they also purchase Nestlé's skin care division?
Similarly, are antitrust issues why people don't believe that Allergan would acquire Revance either?
Thanks in advance
Yes, true. They are certainly wise to do that. My standpoint was regarding North America. I should have made that clearer. Thank you.
RVNC - I can understand the market's reaction to the go-it-alone strategy, as well as the perceived inability to pursue further indications due to the company's small size and lack of funding; but I'm hopeful that even if they fly solo, they'll be able to garner a large enough market share in cosmesis (glabellar lines) to do what they need to in the future for other cosmetic indications and for therapeutic indications.
With Botox pulling in around $3B a year and Dysport $500M a year, it's not hard to imagine Daxi (Nextgentox®) ;) doing at least $500M a year for their best-in-class product. Then, once they get settled in, I think they'll take an even larger share. The dermatology industry is well aware of this product and the extended duration should help it to sell itself, even with the moat that Botox is.
If you apply a 6-8x multiplier to their annualized sales, their market cap goes up nicely, giving them the opportunity for less dilution down the road when they need to raise more funds. I do understand they'll need to raise next year some time first. For patient investors with a long timescale, however, going it alone might prove the better strategy. Of course, getting bought it wouldn't hurt either...
Oh, my fault. I didn't realize that Moderna was in the mRNA field. I thought Dew was accidentally referring to Marina Biotech (now Adhera Therapeutics) -- rather than Moderna -- as those who were in the mRNA field. It was actually my mistake. Marina was formerly into the RNAi field. Sorry, I haven't followed either of those closely and shouldn't have chimed in!
Re MRNA
I think the old "MRNA" (Marina Biotech) was in the mRNA business... But I think the new "MRNA" is Moderna, a different company.
http://marinabio.com/marina-biotech-announces-name-change-to-adhera-therapeutics-to-more-closely-reflect-the-mission-of-improving-patient-outcomes/
EDIT: I don't think Marina Biotech would EVER be able to raise the funds that Moderna did.
NY1972, you still here in $TRIL??
Yes, I did as well. Plus, I have freed up even more dry power for future gloomy days.
True. Hopefully, the providers would realize AGN's data is L.A.M.E.
AGN comes off looking very desperate with this. They're setting the stage to tell providers that they should -- off label and based off a shoddy study -- simply double the current Botox dose to achieve 24-wk effect. It's a win-win situation for AGN -- more toxin purchased and less market share given up to RVNC. The question, though, is if providers would be willing to do this...or if they'd rather just jump ship and use daxi, which will hopefully have a true 24-wk label.
(RVNC) -- Allergan CEO: Botox Is in a Very Strong Position, Despite Growing Competition
https://www.thestreet.com/amp/investing/stocks/allergan-botox-in-very-strong-position-14702922
Additional competition may loom for Botox, but Allergan plc (AGN) management isn't worried.
"We are in a very highly competitive marketplace already, and the fact that one or two additional toxins are coming to the United States is certainly important for us," Allergan chairman, president and CEO Brent Saunders said Wednesday, Sept. 5, at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference in Boston. "We take it very seriously, but it's not new."
In the U.S, Botox Cosmetic competes with Galderma SA's Dysport and Merz Pharma GmbH & Co. KGaA's Xeomin. Galderma is a unit of Nestlé SA. The product also has several competitors outside the U.S.
Upcoming domestic competition includes Revance Therapeutics Inc.'s (RVNC) RT002 and Evolus Inc.'s (EOLS) DWP-450.
A day before Saunders' conference appearance, Goldman, Sachs & Co. analysts wrote in a note that Botox's 70% market share "could come under pressure in an increasingly competitive environment."
And even if Dublin-based Allergan maintained its market share, "we believe they could lose pricing power (greater discounts potentially), impacting margins as they compete with several lower cost alternatives," Goldman analysts wrote.
Saunders at the conference, however, said the entrance of more competition could enlarge the market.
"I think the fact that there will be four or five potential neuromodulators on the market in the U.S. is probably a good thing for the overall market because our penetration in this market is in the single-digits. This market should expand significantly," he said.
Saunders added physicians, healthcare providers and practitioners will continue to have Botox among the neurotoxins in their offices.
"They are not going to stock five or six toxins," Saunders said. "We don't see that phenomena anywhere in the world. They're going to continue to stock two or three, which is what they do today all over the world, and Botox, it will always be will amongst those two or three, and so the competition will be for that second and third or fourth slot in any office."
In the second quarter, Botox Cosmetic had net revenue of $236.5 million in the U.S., up 12.5% from 2017. It had international net revenue of $171.4 million, representing a 14.1% rise year over year, excluding the impact of foreign exchange.
Allergan shares on Wednesday afternoon were up 0.1% to $190.24. The stock is up 16.3% in 2018 but down 15% over the past 12 months.
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An interesting point! Pun intended. While it may be grammatically incorrect, one certainly does hear statements like that in the vernacular pretty often.
Re grammar
"WSJ questions PEP-SODA deal--makes astute point that many emerging markets don't work for SodaStream due to low-quality tap water."
Should be written this way:
WSJ questions PEP-SODA deal--makes astute point that SodaStream doesn't work for many emerging markets due to low-quality tap water.
Sorry, I'm not sure if this was peer-reviewed research. EOM.
Scientists Develop Lab-Made Mineral That Will Suck CO2 From The Atmosphere
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2018/08/15/scientists-develop-lab-made-mineral-that-will-suck-co2-from-the-atmosphere/amp/
A dream solution is that humans could develop a way to suck as much CO2 from the atmosphere as we release, and combined with greenhouse gas emission reductions, we could slow or reverse the tide of climate change.
Scientists have found a way to rapidly create the mineral magnesite in a lab both inexpensively and potentially at scale. This could be coupled with carbon sequestration, a process in which carbon is injected and stored underground, typically in depleted oil and gas fields. Reducing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere can be both a result of reducing input as well as increasing output of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
The research was presented recently at the Goldschmidt conference in Boston by Professor Ian Power of Trent University, Ontario, Canada. Their findings outline a novel way to rapidly produce magnesite inexpensively and at room temperature, allowing for the expansion of the process to an industrial scale.
If implemented at scale, the potential for another tool of CO2 removal via magnesite becomes a possibility, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it long-term in the mineral magnesite.
Below is a breakdown of the potential chemical reaction by which carbon dioxide can be removed from the atmosphere to create magnesite.
CO2+ H2O?H2CO3? H++ HCO3-
Mg+2+HCO3- ?MgCO3+H+
To explain the above equations, carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is injected into water, which is then dissociated to form carbonic acid. From there, elemental magnesium combines with the carbonic acid to form magnesite (MgCO3).
At this time, most carbon capture and storage options are difficult to implement at scale due to high costs and difficulties scaling. With this new method, however, the rate of magnesite formation goes from hundreds to thousands of years in nature to within 72 days in a lab and at low temperatures.
Based on previous studies, magnesite can remove about half its weight in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Estimates put our current CO2 emissions at about 40 billion tons per year. That would mean to remove the equivalent amount of carbon emitted per year solely through magnesite formation, 80 billion tons would have to be produced per year. It becomes increasingly apparent that this cannot be the only lever we pull in mitigating climate change.
By speeding up the process, magnesite could be a legitimate resource for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, the research is still in an experimental phase and will need to be continually tested before it could ever be implemented at industrial scales. In addition, the process will rely on the current price of carbon and financial incentives to remove carbon from the atmosphere.
Trevor Nace is a PhD geologist, founder of Science Trends, Forbes contributor, and explorer. Follow his journey @trevornace.
Do you mean "8x multiplier" rather than 8%?
Dysport
I feel like this was an unfortunate choice for a name. While I'm guessing it was named for the fact it treats cervical dystonia, I can't help but cringe when I hear the name. "Dys" means "bad, ill, or abnormal." Patients probably don't routinely know that, but as a provider, I would tend to have a negative connotation to it. Botox just sounds so much better. They would have been better off if the FDA let them name it Reloxin.
Hopefully, Revance will come up with much better name for their toxin. I like BetterTox or BestTox...haha. I know some people don't think AGN would ever acquire RVNC; but, if they did, I like Botox 2.0 (second generation, works twice as long, and still maintains its major branding).
MLNT board now available on iHub.
Is it due to the fact that bone marrow aspirates are sometimes performed for diagnosis/staging (i.e. in Ewing sarcoma)?
Re Other non-cancer indications for anti-CD47
NASH: It's Fibrosis, Not Fat, that Matters
https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/easl/64691
The Future: Stem Cell Transplantation Without Chemo
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/867410
CD47-blocking antibodies restore phagocytosis and prevent atherosclerosis
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature18935
Lots of interesting avenues to explore
Anthem stops trying to buy Cigna, keeps fighting over damages
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-anthem-cigna-20170512-story.html
LOL. I was feverishly trying to type on my phone, knowing you'd be all over it! Still too slow haha...
Well, I guess we now know why WFM has been up...JANA takes 9% stake. Wants company to speed up its turnaround/consider sale.
I didn't see any upgrades today, but do you think it has anything to do with the stock going ex-dividend tomorrow?
Sorry...my original post was typed on my phone, and I managed to copy/paste and embed parts of post within the original. It makes for a choppy read. Here it is again without typos.
I've been following peripherally for a while. My guess is that if the patent is truly sold to Annon, there will be another rebranding/remarketing (read: pump & dump scheme) of this whole technology again looking for fresh excitement from investors/traders for the sole purpose of insider enrichment. Annon and their origin is just as fishy as BION's. It wouldn't surprise me if there were the same insiders behind the scene.
As far as the share structure, I would think the current outstanding shares will turn out to be worthless, unfortunately. I believe this because BION will have nothing left after they essentially trade their patent for their outstanding debt. Then Annon is not currently a publicly traded company and will have no incentive to reward current shareholders. I don't even know if Annon is really even a legit company at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see them reverse merger into a shell company and then let the pump and dump resume.
I've been following peripherally for a while. My guess is that if the patent is truly sold to Annon, there will be another rebranding/remarketing (read: pump & dump scheme) of this whole technology again looking for fresh excitement from investors/traders for the sole purpose I've been following peripherally for a while. My guess is that if the patent is truly sold to Annon, there will be another rebranding/remarketing (read: pump & dump scheme) of this whole technology looking for fresh excitement from investors/traders for the sole purpose of insider enrichment. Annon and their origin is just as fishy as BION's. It wouldn't surprise me if there were the same insiders behind the scene.
As far as the share structure, I would think the current outstanding shares will turn out to be worthless, unfortunately. I believe this because BION will have nothing left after they essentially trade their patent for their outstanding debt. Then Annon is not currently a publicly traded company and will have no incentive to reward current shareholders. I don't even know if Annon is really even a legit company at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see them reverse merger into a shell company and then let the pump and dump resume.
Got it. Thanks for the reply.
What was your position? TIA.
No problem.
Cheers.
http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2016/209531Orig1s000Approv.pdf
Quote from page 5 of the PDF file in the link above:
This voucher entitles you to designate a single human drug application submitted under section 505(b)(l) of the FDCA or a single biologic application submitted under section 351 of the Public Health Service Act as qualifying for a priority review. Such an application would not have to meet any other requirements for a priority review.
The bottommost sentence is the the key one. I would try to add emphasis, but I can't bold it through my phone.
GILD -- Priority review voucher
I wouldn't read too much into the "pediatric" nature of the voucher. The voucher was given to Sarepta due to their conditional approval of eteplirsen, for a rare pediatric disease. The actual priority review voucher can be used for any NDA or BLA, without regard to the indication or age group that the medication/biologic would be used for. So I wouldn't anticipate Gilead making any imminent purchase of a pharmaceutical company or a drug program targeting rare pediatric diseases.
It was discussed on conference call yesterday for their quarterly report. I don't think their fatal flaw was necessarily from avoiding partnering or avoiding buyout but more so using that manufacturing company in India that apparently has multiple red flags. Either way, will be interesting to see what happens next...
Very common for big news...good or bad. In this case, bad.
Halted. Results pending
$MON - Saw something that suggested the same:
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11K128
Except below:
German drug and crop chemical maker Bayer clinched a $66 billion takeover of U.S. seeds company Monsanto on Wednesday, ending months of wrangling with a third sweetened offer that marks the largest all-cash deal on record.
Sorry for lack of formatting; I'm on phone.
I'm on phone now, but I think this link may be the direct link:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/novavaxidg/
If not, search Novavax Investor Discussion Group when logged into Facebook.
TRILLIUM THERAPEUTICS RECEIVES FDA CLEARANCE TO PROCEED WITH TTI-621 IN CLINICAL TRIAL TARGETING SOLID TUMORS AND MYCOSIS FUNGOIDES
Toronto, Ontario, August 17, 2016 – Trillium Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TRIL; TSX: TR), a clinical stage immuno-oncology company developing innovative therapies for the treatment of cancer, announced today that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has provided the company clearance to initiate a Phase 1 clinical trial of its lead drug candidate, TTI- 621 (SIRPaFc), in solid tumors and mycosis fungoides. Patient enrollment is anticipated to commence by the end of the year. Trillium is developing TTI-621 as a novel checkpoint inhibitor of the innate immune system, and the drug is currently being evaluated in an ongoing Phase 1 dose escalation study in patients with relapsed or refractory hematologic malignancies.
“The FDA’s acceptance of this IND application is another important milestone for our company, as the study of TTI-621 in select tumor types could lead to a more thorough understanding of its mechanism of action, and may bring us one step closer to a much needed treatment option for patients,” said Dr. Niclas Stiernholm, chief executive officer of Trillium Therapeutics. “We seek to gain insight into the tumor micro-environment before, during and after treatment with TTI- 621. This will help us learn how to best use TTI-621 CD47 blockade in combination with other anti-cancer drugs and better design the commercial development path for this agent.”
In the multicenter, open-label, Phase 1 trial, TTI-621 will be delivered by intratumoral injection in patients with relapsed and refractory, percutaneously-accessible cancers. Patients will be enrolled in sequential dose cohorts to receive intratumoral injections of TTI-621 that increase in dose and dosing frequency to characterize safety, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and preliminary evidence of antitumor activity. In addition, detailed evaluation of serial, on-treatment tumor biopsies of both injected and non-injected cancer lesions will help characterize tumor microenvironment changes anticipated with CD47 blockade.
Facebook NVAX investor group and StockTwits much more active than this board. I use those venues. Try them out if interested.
Today they announced on conference call that they have started a Zika vaccine study. This is not a priority, but it can hopefully lend credibility to their platform if immunogenicity is robust.
NVAX - RSV vaccine is potentially a multi-billion dollar franchise. If data is good, NVAX should be worth significantly more than it is now. It hit $15 after Ph2 readout and was, IMO, fully valued at $4 billion for that time in the company's history. Ph3 success, followed by FDA approval and ACIP endorsement should probably bring this to around $6 bill. Not sure how the convertible debt will affect it, though. The ex-US partnership will affect share price as well.