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I disagree. We should get some $$$ with euro partner and then use that to hire more reps. With DTC ads and fda approval, I can see us getting to 2b easily.
4th q, after fda nod, I see us getting to 175 with ease. Then 500m on 2020 4th Q very easily.
My scenario
1. Euro partner brings 500m to 1B and gets 20% of net revenue.
2. If we get nod on the priority review, JT announces additional hire of 600 to have
total of 1k sales rep around June to be trained for Oct post FDA launch.
3. Bombard DTC ads emphasizing 31% 28% 20% reduction.
4. By this time we will have at least 2 cost effective studies which will be very favorable.
5. 4th Q revenue should be 200m
6. Scripts rise big all through 2020.
7. Achieve 400m rev 4th Q of 2020 and voila, we are run rate of 2B.
We will be trading 50 to 70 by then. Easily sold to BP for triple digitz.
Yes and u am assuming we get fda approved by end of Sept for that 700m run rate.
This is why we will not get sold anytime soon. No way we get sold at 100 right now. 2 years later when we bit 2B run rate, then we can be sold at triple digits.
End of 2019, I expect 700m run rate and 2B run rate at end of 2020.
Cal, yes those 32 will be good at one point in time.
It is crucial that you sell those for say double if we hit 23+.
then wait and reload again. you can do this over and over and over again.
I suspect in May we will get to ATH regardless AMRN looking bleak currently.
Priority review + rising scripts will help us get there.
I don't expect too much for 1st Q, unless guidance is upped.
I expect guidance to be upped by 2nd Q for sure. Not sure about 1st Q.
Good thing is analysts are expecting less than 68m. Im thinking low 70s.
Makes sense like u always do. I'll try to get the new way in the spreadsheets. Thanks.
Thank you. Please keep the old way as well as I've been using it for awhile. Awesome numbers!
According to JT, Symphony overstates 1st Q numbers usually, but he says it is trending to the actual numbers this year so far. Great sign for 1st Q.
"So early on, it seems to be tracking fairly closely this quarter, but historically, they have overstated scripts in the first quarter. I think, we're looking for whether that would repeat itself here in this quarter or not. So far, that doesn't seem to be the case. But, having only the January data and essentially one week of February data, it's very early to be commenting on that."
With that, perhaps rev can exceed 4th Q. If so, I would imagine guidance update as well. With good guidance and priority review [if given] we will have a decent shot at ATH.
We've been hesitant to allow potential partners to get into the database or ask questions of our regulatory and clinical group, as we don't want to have those folks distracted from getting the SNDA filed, which we think is the most important path to creating value.
Doesn't the above quote sound like they are actually talking to potential partner? Why would they be "hesitant" at all I'd they never talked with anyone? Intersting.
According 4th Q CC
"Inventory levels at wholesalers ended 2018 at levels which were consistent with industry norms. We do not believe that our 2018 revenues were significantly impacted by shifts in wholesaler inventory levels. Our net product revenue in Q4 was slightly higher than what may have been calculated by review of prescription data from independent sources such as Symphony Health and IQVIA.
As described previously, these sources use various sampling techniques to estimate prescription levels. They are only estimates as demonstrated by the different results reported by different sources. The techniques they use appear to be more effective over long periods of time compared to short periods. It is our speculation that actual prescription levels for Vascepa in the fourth quarter may have increased faster than what was reported by these sources."
Perhaps 4th Q scripts were much higher than reported, and 1st Q might even be higher, so perhaps we can get to 90m plus.
it probably is.. i hope it is! thanks.
HD, so bottom line is benchmark data is actually pills picked up by customers.. i get that... but perhaps WS overstocked BIG time on 4th Q (where AMRN counts as 4th Q revenue) and drove the 4thQ rev up.
so if you look at the below, they perhaps overstocked big.
2nd Q 2018, benchmark was 119.8m, and rev was 52.5m (ratio 2.28)
3rd Q 2018, benchmark was 127.9m, and rev was 55.0m (ratio 2.32)
4th Q 2018, benchmark was 150.8m, and rev was 77.3m (ratio 1.95)
what this tells me is that during 4th Q, WH stocked up b4 price increases by 12m (taking normal ratio of 2.3 ish)
So for 1st Q, if you take Cal's 185m
you get 185m/2.3 = 80.4m
Take 12m off 80.4m - 68.4m
That said, they will always order more for 2nd Q, so it might wash some of that 12m off.. perhaps half.
they we can see around 74 to 75m
too much math for me... i haven't taken math in millions of years.
i just took the benchmark data and divided by the revenue reported by Amarin and got the ratio.
It seems that ratio for 1st Q is always the highest out of the 4.
1st q 2014 ratio = 1.42
1st q 2015 ratio = 1.74
1st q 2016 ratio = 1.91
1st q 2017 ratio = 2.34
1st q 2018 ratio = 2.49
1st q 2019 ratio = i gave it 2.6 to 2.8 to follow the trend
so we have 185m (your number) divided by 2.6-2.8 = 66m - 71m
but if we get lowered ratio of say 2.49 like last year, we can get to 74m
simple math, but like HD said (i have no idea what he said actually), i hope i am wrong!
Commonsense says 1st Q should be way higher than 4th Q looking at scripts and plus they upped the price by 9%... but hey, with amrn, nothing makes sense right?
it seems weird. more scripts we get, the ratio gets higher?
is it the coupons? perhaps the 10 percent price increase will help.
i don't necessarily see it going down. i mean i was expecting lower 1st Q than 4th Q cuz that is just the way it has always been.
now come 2nd Q to 4th, we will be up big imo.
GL
Per Sam's Benchmark Sales Dollar / Revenue table
1st Q is estimated of course. Ratio can be lower than 2.6 -2.8 but hey i just went by the trend.
That said, looks like HD is right. Rev can be below 70m for 1st Q.
Benchmark Sales Dollar Revenue Bench/Rev Ratio
1st Q 2019 $180,000,000 64m-69m 2.6-2.8
4th Q 2018 $150,858,368 $77,300,000 1.951595964
3rd Q 2018 $127,872,935 $55,000,000 2.324962455
2nd Q 2018 $119,828,421 $52,500,000 2.282446114
1st Q 2018 $109,128,495 $43,800,000 2.491518151
4th Q 2017 $104,195,109 $53,900,000 1.933118905
3rd Q 2017 $98,198,539 $47,100,000 2.084894671
2nd Q 2017 $90,245,391 $44,900,000 2.009919621
1st Q 2017 $80,061,845 $34,300,000 2.334164577
4th Q 2016 $70,100,790 $38,700,000 1.811389922
3rd Q 2016 $62,297,985 $32,400,000 1.922777315
2nd Q 2016 $55,489,282 $32,800,000 1.691746402
1st Q 2016 $48,287,055 $25,300,000 1.908579249
4th Q 2015 $42,285,758 $26,600,000 1.58969015
3rd Q 2015 $37,321,080 $21,300,000 1.75216338
2nd Q 2015 $31,623,058 $17,700,000 1.786613446
1st Q 2015 $27,112,856 $15,600,000 1.73800359
4th Q 2014 $25,369,741 $16,500,000 1.537560061
3rd Q 2014 $21,859,069 $14,100,000 1.550288582
2nd Q 2014 $18,283,947 $12,600,000 1.451106905
1st Q 2014 $15,599,979 $11,000,000 1.418179909
4th Q 2013 $15,044,949 $10,100,000 1.489598911
3rd Q 2013 $12,122,745 $8,400,000 1.443183929
2nd Q 2013 $7,862,534 $5,500,000 1.429551636
1st Q 2013 $1,718,531 $2,340,000 0.734414957
Roth has no taxes. If I put in 100k into roth and I make 10m. I can withdraw it tax free. Traditional ira u pay taxes.
Traditional IRA = pre tax going in. Taxes coming out.
ROTH IRA = taxed $ in. No taxes coming out.
Yea, their explanation is ambiguous. I just use Sam's numbers to gauge the general trend. We will have to wait for 1st Q numbers to see where we are at. I just hope the middlemen didn't order too much before the end of the year to beat the 9% price increase.
Starting 2nd Q, we should really ramp up on the revenues.
I give this 50/50 shot of raising guidance 1st Q. 100% by 2nd Q if we don't get one on 1st Q.
Hey we are up for a change!
Google FDA insider trading. Corruption everywhere.
Sam, on the yahoo boards, someone contacted symphony and here is what they replied with.
Thank you for your recent inquiry to Symphony Health regarding data related to Amarin and rumors of issues with that data. We appreciate the opportunity to address your concerns. With regard to Amarin, and specifically the drug Vascepa, we did have a vendor that comprises less than 14% of sample have an interruption in reporting. As is our normal course of business when vendors experience a delay or interruption in reporting, we adjusted our projection factors to account for this data. We published a restatement for the weeks ending 3/8, 3/15 and 3/22 and have been in contact with Amarin related to this restatement. We are pleased to report that our numbers are trending accurately.
Should you need any further information, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
Kind regards,
Heather Varela
Director, Marketing Communications
My bad, I'll update it Monday. Must be link problem. I do that site at work.
Not only this, they need to run cvd trial using SOC which means Vacepa plus statin vs their drug plus vascepa plus statin. Good luck on that. Overload on diarrhea lol.
Obviously BO so not needed. Or europe Partnership in the bag lol
sure.. but what is the resolution there?
ITC go investigate?
ITC, let FDA decide?
both are like whatever to me.
Possible events for me, not in particular order that can be positive.
1. FDA priority decision
2. AHA/ACC guide update
3. FDA ADCOM decision
4. FDA approves so dam fast we shake our heads
5. EMA application May
6. Europe Partner
7. New analyst coverages
8. New Reduce-IT data
9. FDA gives favorable labels
10. BB boys upping their percentage
11. Institutional holdings on mid May
12. Guidance update this week
13. Every earnings beats and raise.
14. Other country partnerships (S. America, India, Australia, etc)
15. China news
16. Start of new clinical trials (big ones like dry eyes, alz)
17. Scripts rise in hockey stick manner
18. Hiring investment firms pubblically, which shows bidding wars
19. Canada approval this year for CVD (first of its kind worldwide)
20. Buffett buys his 2nd biotech and says, i am taking VASCEPA
21. Famous Hedge manager gets vocal about AMRN in a good way
22. Constant BO rumors
23. Kardashians become the spokesmen for Vascepa (seriously, JT should consider this)
Anyways, as long as scripts goes up, we are golden, cuz in the end that is what matters.
We were taken to the shed last few weeks due to weeks of weak scripts. Hopefully, Sam's numbers, every Friday goes up from here, which will stabilize AMRN and go up from there.
GL all AMRN millionaires and future millionaires!
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/another-terrific-vascepa-reduce-it-fact-nnt-112-arr-john/
someone from ST posted this.
Didn't JT say inventory levels at channels indicate normal?
Thank you ! Back on track!
we officially filed. 5 million pages.
Dam. I'm guilty on 6 of those accounts
135 not 150. Fda to do the same hopefully
Sam. As always with you, great news! Now back to 40k please!
Best way is to change the formula. I am sure mochida and amrn will come up with something in 10 years.
Or find some orphan status that guarantees 7 years of exclusivity.
In the meantime, file the sNDA.
This is what we get for not filing yet. God forbid should we miss the deadline. Better have a BO if it passes this weekend. With that I need to go to work... dam another day without retirement.
JT needs to ease up on promises. He is good with lowballing guidance, but not dates. Just guide for april next time and beat it by a month.
One exception is the orphan status that can deter even teva.
I took 1 week off when my son had spring break at his elementary and went on vacation. I'm sure some docs are off. We will get back on track on april, then heat up during may and fly end of the year. It is just the way it is. Scripts are actually doing well year to year.
That why I call them anal ysts. Yes he is wrong by a big factor. Bold well when they upgrade in 2 months after 1st q and priority review is given. I suspect they will have targets into the 50s next year when we are trying in the 40s when we are at 1b runrate.
April is where I think scripts will turn up. May 1st Q CC will guide up.
Hopefully priority review granted by end of may. We will hopefully hit mid 20s by then. Things can move up just as fast as it went down. People overreact to everything. Confidence will be very high after snda submission.
I am sure our institutional holdings will be up as well.
Thanks as always. I was hoping for a bit higher. Time for bed!
In the event of a hostile takeover. Very unlikely, but hey we are all speculating for fun right?
like my son always says, "i likesss it"
haha
lol... i like HD's plan better:
announce publically B/O for 50 bucks, then shareholders reject (BB), it goes backdown to 25, we buy again, then another comes in at 70, we accept and we make $$$$$.