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a close for the sp500 over 3280 is very bullish, a close over 3300 is super bullish.
Next resistance at 3330, i expect the market will fall 1 or 2% from that level.
Did not foresee the big drop in silver, not sure what it means, but a 33% correction in a bull market move for a commodity is not unusual.
Put 20% of my money into nvda near the open today, this is my long term investment vehicle, and also trading vehicle. Moves with market most of the time.
before the qqq, I would trade IBM as a proxy for the qqq, spy in the good old days! Other than worrying about the occasional roaming Trex or sabor tooth tiger, and not having internet or cell phones, things weren't so bad in the late 1980's,early 1990's.
Had to trudge through knee deep snow to get to school when I was a wee little boy, when bessie the horse could not pull the carraige to school. Oh the good old days of the 1960's!
At least I find the above funny
looks like 3200 held, now 3380 is the maximum upside we can achieve next week, or more unlikely, a drop to 3150 to complete the downside.
Weekly LEI have been rising steadily for months, same for the Chicago Fed numbers. both are saying economy should be ok into early next year, with or without more stimulus bills.
I still think we see 3150 or so in the next month, will wait to get too excited about being long until we retest todays lows, maybe tomorrow!
Todays lows could be a significant bottom, i missed buying nvda and tsla by less than $1, not chasing the rally.
Fundamentals are terrible, but the fed is pumping,pumping,pumping.
3330 is the line in the sand. If we can break over that level, then 3430 or even 3530 is possible.
If the market can not get over that levelby middle of next week,then a fall to 3130 is very likely.
3130 is going to provide direction soon.
Short term, as in the next 2 weeks, are not clear,but what is clear is that 3100 is like a magnet for the next 2 months,and until we get under 3200 it is not a great time to be investing long term.
I have also noticed in the last 35 years, that the best investments bottom before the last bottom, and so many stocks bottomed yesterday, like nvda.
Slv looks good here,I added to my position this morning. I also bought some nvda under 490. Am up to 40% long now,will short if we rally enough.
Last week, all the "experts" were claiming market action confirmed it was time to sell Covid new economy stocks, and rotate back into cyclicals. They were wrong.
In almost 35 years of watching how experts say the wrong thing at turning pts, and the news should be taken as a contrarian indicator.
My favorite was the barrons cover of bears running with knives coming at them in mid July 1990, just before a 25% bear market started. The article made fun of the bears being wrong for so long!
I have learned Barrons is very very wrong most of the time. They loved Enron in the spring of 2000, saying it was the best "tech" stock to own.
My plan this week is to buy at 3150, short at 3430
There is not going to be a stimulus bill from congress before next year, very bearish for the economy and market.
I would now say a new high in the market this year is now unlikely.
Today was another rotation back out of recovery stocks into covid economy stocks.
That being said, buying at 3200, 3150, and 3100 will be very short term profitable trades. Expect to see todays pattern, a low in the morning, another low later in the day about the same level, and then a rally into the close.
bottom line: Long term investors can start buying stocks like nvda, or other of your favorites, but dont expect todays lows to last for the market. to
Not seeing the kind of fear that would signal today is a major bottom, we may not even get a couple day bounce.
Interesting that the techs are going up today, covid plays are up big too.
Banks getting hit hard is very negative for the market.
I expect 3150 to hold when we get there soon, would be a good time to buy for a rally into the election.
Things seem to be happening to help Trump win this election without having to pull some funny business after. They have done an excellent job of voter suppression! The market will be happy no matter who wins, as long as there is not a long drawn out battle after.
The vix is still saying "buy", as it does not go up much with market drop.
I remember in June 2002 when the vix was not going up as the market fell, then the market and the vix fell hard from august to oct.
I bought agi at 9.5, am now 10% long slv, 10% long agi, and 5% long nvda and amd. Almost doubled both postions, but waiting for dust to settle today before buying.
AAII numbers are screaming buy, bu they can be wrong for awhile.
If congress passes a stimulus bill, market rallies up 10% quickly. If they dont, we could have already started the bear market.
Funny, spx got right up to 21dma, and then sold off hard!
Next stop? I am confused, best to not do anything, but 3300 still is buy level, 3500 sell
Looks like the market got short term oversold last week, after having been massively overbought the week before, and now it is up and away again.
I still plan on shorting when the vix gets below 21 interday.
3430 is rising 21dma, close above that and 3600 is likely next week.
Market is at important turning point. It worked off the overbought condition past couple days. Now can it start to become overbought again?
Bulls did not get over now slowly falling 21dma,but 50dma held last week.
I still think upside short term is more likely, as fed will say what is needed to keep rally going into election.
Although it makes no sense, I expect spy to get between 32 and 356 before we get another correction. Am such a bear,but am being realistic about price action short term.
Sarcasm aside, am pretty sure the fed will say something to calm markets tomorrow, hoping to pump up asset values.
Again, nobody ever manipulates the market or individual stocks, as that would be wrong!
This is a reply to nowwhat post:
That proves nobody ever manipulates stock prices,thank goodness.
I am going to sell my house and buy that stock!
Anything is possible, nothing is certain, but when the vix gets back to 21, I will start shoring heavily.
Trying to predict price levels is more difficult with tops, where the vix is more precise in its sell signals.
I suspect we are back in same situation as late Feb, investors willing to ignore the bad news until they dont and start to sell in panic mode.
We came close to a major sell signal last week, but a failed signal usually reverses quickly the other way.
A rally back to 3600 on spx makes no sense in face of fundamentals, but that is the most likely target now for next couple weeks.
Normally, strong August, weak sept/oct
I make more money when only trading sure things, rather than ever little signal.
NO clear signal now, although another down day would be a decent buy, and a rally into end of next week would be a good short.
No real selling climax yet, which is not always at a bottom, but is a good indicator of a solid bottom.
I still expect 3300 to hold short term, and one last rally.
The news is as bad as can be, with no stimulus bill now likely. The fed can and will pump the same kind of billions into the market that they did in late march if needed.
If 3300 is broken, then 3200 is possible. Am just 10% long slv and another 20% long a few software stocks, sold my semi stocks yesterday. Came very close to buying sds, but did not.
Thank you for that important information. FYI, I keep accumulating silver (slv, not physical, as have so much of it already) on every pullback.
I will also short the spy if it gaps up tomorrow. The spy and sp500 got just below the 20dma before falling a little below the high of the day, which is bearish short term.
The apparent breakdown in a stimulus bill being passed (no comment on its need or being a good idea, only its affect on the market) should be very bad for the markets into the end of the year.
I am starting to think a much larger correction, in the order of 15 to 19%, is becoming more likely into November. No matter what happens in the election, any negative affect on markets should be priced in by the end of the first week of november.
Everything good that happens is thanks to THE Donald. Everything bad is because of other people.
I have known too many people like that in my life, they never learn that taking responsibility for my own actions means I am in control of my life and can fix problems I have created, and work on not making the same mistakes again. I am not constantly a victim.
One thing THE Donald and i share is we both have very hot wives much younger than ourselves. The reason i have one is I love women, and treat them all with the upmost respect and consideration.
Donald has one because he is rich.
I will start shorting, and for sure sell all my stocks at 3450, think we still need to retest yesterdays lows in the next week or so, even if we are in a bull market longer term.
sp500 21dma is 3430, close over that is bullish short term, if price turns down from there today is very bearish.
TWLA fell to rising 50dma yesterday, an is up today. Still looks insanely overvalued to me, but AMZN was like that all of 1999, until it fell into march of 2003, when it was a screaming buy.
Looks like no stimulus bill before the election, and also more conflict with China, both are bad for markets.
This pattern looks so much like February of this year, which would mean we top out tomorrow morning, retest yesterdays lows, then rally to new highs.
Doubt it will be that easy, but will take profits at spx 3450 and even think about shorting then.
If we do double bottom, then 3550 is likely this month before a much larger correction, if the polls are still very close in October.
IMHO, what the market wants is a biden win by a large majority. If that becomes apparent, we start to rally big time.
Same for a blowout win by Trump.
If it is very close, there will be chaos, which nobody in their right mind would want, and that will be very bad for the markets.
Remember, the spx was down 5% in the furures market when it was apparent trump had won 4 years ago, and then it rallied and closed up the next day. This time, if it is very close, thanks to efforts by Trump the votes will not be counted for weeks,and that will be very bad for the market.
Bottom line: Polls in 3 weeks or even closer to the election will move markets the most, again IMHO
Did not see how far this will go, 3230 major gap fill, for sure we hold at that.
3230 would be a 10% correction
In both the june and early February drops, the rising 50dma was support. In feb, the market ran back up to new highs then fell like a rock. June was a major buying opportunity.
I suspect we do inbetween, and have a 10 to 15% CORRECTION by november.
I suspect we are more like in Early february, not like in June.
Election is going to hinder the market more than people think, IMHO.
But short term, tops usually have another run at new highs before they roll over.
In the june selloff,the market hit bottom the third day of selling, right near the open.
I still think you cant lose buying at 3300, if we drop that far today. IMHO, there will be a short term buy,as in good for a couple days, in the first half hour of trading.
Or wait for the first short rally to fail, and buy on the next dip.
Tech will come back, although I think more than a 2 day rally may not be possible.
50dma is sitting at 3300, should be major support unless a really bad news event happens, which can never be known until it comes out of nowhere.
Is why I expect 3300 to hold this month.
I see one of two possible outcomes to the current chart:
We get a bottom formed this week and another run to new highs, like back in february before a much bigger correction.
Or we just keep bouncing around between 3300 and 3600 into the election, with lots of opportunities to short or go long.
For sure, news will drive the market up and down into December.
I agree, why I had an order to short more spy friday, but did not get filled by .$13. I dont get up until an hour after the market is open and by then was too late to short.
I will short spy if we gap up first half hour tuesday, and will buy more if we gap down in that time frame.
I expect range bound market into election, 3300 to 3600. Short above 3500, buy below 3400, both carefully.
Option players not worried enough for a v recovery to this drop, we will for sure retest todays lows or make lower lows later this month, maybe today!
vix is saying buy short term, if it holds for rest of day, expect rally to 3500 next week on spx, not sure after that.
Had order to cover the rest of my short in spy at 336,got filled.
Made some money shorting, now losing on stocks I bought.
Bought more today. My 6 stocks that I think will outperform in the next year are:
ADI
AMD
DOCU
NVDA
TWLO
ZEN
and I bought more SLV at 24.5 as I had posted i would.
The 21dma held today.
I wrote yesterday, that a drop on thursday (not expecting THAT kind of drop, but have said often the over enthusiasm set up a drmatic fall possiblity) and then a rally into next week would set up the real sell signal.
I think the above is possible, and am planning on shorting heavily if that setup works.
For now, holding a 50% short in spy, 50% long in tech stocks I want to own the next couple years. If we drop to 3400 tomorrow morning, I cover the rest of my spy, and maybe add a little more stocks (want to buy SLV under 24.5)
If we rally into next week, I short a lot more spy, and maybe sell covered calls on the stocks, or even sell them outright if the sell is strong enough.