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valuemind/cds: "My random selling order of CDS at $9 was filled"
........mine at $5.4 was filled at $5.55. :((((
suot-volume and pps move is impressive today, compared to cpsl, it is still very undervalued.
cpsl, or maybe due to the erroneous information on yahoo showing
pe=1.6?
why cpsl doubled so fast? it does not look undervalued at 7.78 (9month earned 0.29)?
cds(chnd)doing well on Amex, +10%, think it is still undervalued(est.earnings 0.7 for 2007)
ari5000
"Wonder if XING, SDTH, or some of those .obs will catch soon. I've never seen such a total dominance from one class of stocks so early in the morning."
Thanks for mentioning xing and sdth this morning. Both up nicely and I traded them today. Now waiting to re-enter.
Also bought more chnd for its up listing to Amex on Monday. It is still cheap and should go up.
crude oil symbol
gilead23/len: thanks for replying. found it is quoted on marketwatch under c107v, nymex, but cannot add to the yahoo finance.
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/cl07v
oil symbol: len/gilead23, thanks for repling, i found the symbol from marketwatch, it is c107v on nymex, but i cannot add on the yahoo finance page.
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/cl07v
oil symbol - can someone please tell me the symbol for oil price as shown on CNBC? i.e. for Dow it is ^DJI, Nasdaq ^ixic. Thanks.
EIU Special Report August 2007: Heading for the rocks: Will financial turmoil sink the world economy?
http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/25828/20070831144222/graphics.eiu.com/upload/Heading%20for%20the%20ro....
ari5000: "this is probably the most difficult market to trade in. It's not bear nor bull -- just a LOT of power on both sides pushing it around."
So those with cash on the sidelines have made the right choice.
ari5000:"I think this push lasts until noon -- at lunchtime... they turn into sellers..."
you seems to be right so far...
Len: #3Prediction: maybe about another Black Monday?
Len, I remember it was 45%, because I was shocked to see it was only 20% today and 25% yesterday.
MSGI, thanks very much for the link, I have bookmarked it.
"I don't think we are close to a bottom"
MSGI: Thanks very much for the reply, it is very close to my thinking. I sold a lot of qid a couple of days ago and hope to load up again if the market bounce back a little from here.
len, which direction the market will head to after the -10% is a big question, further down 5% is not unlikely?
thanks, just want to learn your complete wave story, as it says the current market is for traders, not investors.
"Tell your enemies to buy stock and go long with the perma bulls. LOL"
How many days it will take to the 1,510 in your estimate? Can you pls. give me a link of your original abc wave post, thank you!
"They really like to stick it to the individual investor."
it is so true, as the little guy is at the end of the food chain.
" Where is the little guy"?
the little guy may be in the funds - most of them returned to the mutual funds, rather than individual stocks, this is my guess.
"More evidence that Cramer is full of baloney"
agree. just as no one helped out the stock speculators after the last bubble burst started in 2000.
I am reading the discussions among you,len,bbotcs etc on this topic with great attention and agree most of the points/facts/problems presented.
Was very shocked by the rapid drop of 500+ points of the Dow just in two days. The possible direction of the market in short term is most likely down imho.
For the long term, it is now very necessary to begin think about what should be done now as an individual to prevent from big financial losses before the depression happens. Unfortunately we could not solve those existing problems outlined in your discussions other than recognizing them.
Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
Friday April 27, 10:07 am ET
ByBrett Arends, Mutual Funds Columnist
theStreet.com
How high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000?
How about 36,000?
While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent.
One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.
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Everything is in bubble territory, he says.
Everything. 'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.'
-- Jeremy Grantham
"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!"
"Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "
As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.
"The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism."
And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you."
It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.
Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it. By his calculations, the only assets likely to beat inflation by any significant margin if you hold them for the next seven years are managed timber, "high-quality" U.S. stocks, and bonds.
As noted in this column several weeks ago, Grantham's U.S. "high-quality" stocks include Home Depot , Merck , Wal-Mart , AT&T , Pfizer , Johnson & Johnson , Exxon Mobil , UnitedHealth , Verizon and Lowe's .
"The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high-grade bonds," Grantham warned. "Since no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. All of this is likely to depress confidence and lower economic activity."
Ouch.
Grantham sees two big potential catalysts that might turn this bull market into a bear: a surge in inflation, leading to higher interest rates, and a squeeze on profit margins, which are currently running way above long-term averages.
As for timing, he concedes that's impossible to predict. But here's the kicker: Even Grantham thinks you probably need to be bullish right now. The reason? Most bubbles, he notes, go through a short but dramatic "exponential phase" just before they burst. Like Japan in 1989 or the Internet in early 2000.
"My colleagues," wrote Grantham, "suggest that this global bubble has not yet had this phase and perhaps they are right. ... In which case, pessimists or conservatives will take considerably more pain."
ssk, well utvg is such a volatile stock to say the least. I sold 20% today and bought some pudc.
wade: re QID I tend to agree with your opinion and I have also increased my QID holdings last week. My main fear is the May Factor- in the past few years the market headed to south from May after the running up (sell in May and go away?). It has been very difficult and frustrating to be long from May to September for me in the past.
utvg-+0.28 to $2.05 (above ave. volume), good news coming?
CPNE-R59: also hope to see good news. thanks for posting.
GENX- DigiTech, great trip report. Thank you.
UTVG- pps down these past few days on low volumes(vs. pps up on heavy volumes), so I will be buying back all my shares sold before the earning release date.
It is time to relax and laugh..
NEW-saw your post yesterday and almost bought for a quick trade, but no guts. only watch and regret today...
My pick: UTVG
DD: copy what is put by valuemind, add my additional points:
(1) like the growth story
(2) in the attractive sector and country
(3) catalist for doing well in 2007 is the 2008 olympics in Beijing
Cl001- Congratulations and hope you enjoyed the Kobe steaks!
You ability to trade the metal stocks with quick and large gains is very admirable. I did sell all my nxg holdings at the end of 2006, but still holding a lot of RNO. Wish I also sold those so that I could add more shares at lower prices now.
Added a few LMC and BHP timorously lately. Hope the metal stocks will turn around next week as you just prodicted. The market has been terribly unkind to the sector since 2007.
just a gamble to finish the PLS4.
pls. sell ovti to buy cpne. thanks.
trade aly for wire, thanks.
R59- uahc reported 0.04 for the last Q on declining revenue. PPS $8.68 is way overvalued. Are you still holding your short shares? I may short more tomorrow.
DAKT -- earned only 0.12 vs.0.11, it is down already > $9 (-31%) pre-market. Nice find Zen lunatic420, thanks a lot for mentioning yesterday on the Nasty Dooshers (short selling) board.
DAKT -- earned only 0.12 vs.0.11, its down already over $8 (-26%) pre-market, nice find ZEN, thanks a lot for mentioning it yesterday!