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The thing is, permabears are always right eventually -- you can keep saying the same thing over and over again, and sure, one day it'll happen. Let's not forget that you were saying exactly the same thing (calling for a teen bog pit) right before the move from .20 to .36.
You wonder why no one gives you credit? It's because you don't deserve it. You repeat the same thing, every single day, and then say "Look at me! I was right!" when it finally happens -- it's just laughable. Should we just ignore the fact that you were wrong so many other times before? What about the folks who got out last time, because of you, and missed the 75%+ move?
Clearly, quite a few investors are becoming very nervous about the delay. But investing with any type of emotion is not so different from flushing money down the toilet. Anyone who has done any amount of DD can clearly see that we have every reason to believe that Fuse will come through. We already know from GNC that we _will_ have product on the shelves soon (and that EnerGel has been discontinued!)
This is real life here. Don't we all know by now that not everything goes exactly to plan? It doesn't mean you have to throw everything away and give up all hope just because you hit a bump in the road. Unfortunately, it seems that long-term thinking is something very foreign to many investors these days.
Exactly right.. but, as silly as it sounds to us, it is apparent that some folks have it in their head that they KNOW it will NOT be on major store shelves.
Yeah, hitting about 125 home runs in a 2 1/2 year span will certainly do that :)
Bautista is definitely a good pickup. He hit 54 home runs in 2010. Babe Ruth himself only topped that total twice. If you don't know who he is, then you probably don't pay attention to baseball. Fortunately for Fuse, MLB has many, many, many millions of fans.
We understand that, but I don't know how you fail to see how irritating and harmful it is for certain posters to get away with knowingly posting false information and other egregious and ridiculous statements, while acting like they are facts. This is really not constructive in any way, especially when people's hard-earned cash is at stake.
I am starting to believe this sort of attitude (however misguided it may be) is yet another big reason why PPS is being held down.
Amazingly, there are groups of people who honestly believe that this company is all "smoke and mirrors", there are people who believe we actually will NOT see Fuse products in GNC, and, most of all, believe the drops to be completely fake. Laughable? Yes, however it is pretty clear that some people do hold this opinion, and so here we are at 0.22.
So, what does it all mean? Well, in the past I have felt that we would not see much of a pop when EJ hits the shelves and/or when the drops are released. Why? Because we already know that it is going to happen.
However... it is now apparent that some folks think that it is NOT going to happen, that Fuse is going NOWHERE but down, that some/all of their products will not make it to market, and if they do then it will be proven to be useless junk. And what does that mean? It means that when the inevitable does happen (EJ on the shelves of GNC + drops released), I am really starting to feel that we will indeed see a very nice pop.
I say that because all of these naysayers will finally be proven wrong, short positions would be covered, and investors who were hesitant before would now have the confidence to buy. It would mean that Fuse really can and will deliver in a huge way, and has nowhere to go but up. I already feel that Fuse has delivered in so many ways already, certainly enough to earn some confidence from it's investors -- but apparently not everyone agrees.
So, wex, it looks like your post was just a really drawn out way to say "Fuse is a scam". That is quite interesting, because it seems that the vast majority of folks who have done extensive DD are holding long, and are not worried one bit. I'm one of them.
What I meant was that I wish more shares would end up in stronger hands, instead of with people who will sell it all at the slightest hint of things not going exactly how they expected.
It's one thing to sell if something has fundamentally changed for the worst, and yes that is the correct action to take in that event -- but that just isn't the case here.
Actually, I believe bgrass's lack of ability to read charts is exactly why he is having so much trouble (along with the fact that he seems to be an incredibly impatient investor.)
This move was expected after we fell through .29 and .27. Good ol' griff and myself both stated we were looking for .20 again. For me it is just an opportunity to buy more while the stock is "on sale".
This move is happening because we broke multiple key levels of support, and that occurred because we had too many impatient investors here. Let's hope most of them are gone now.
For sure. Nothing has changed.. Talk about "panic" selling when there is no panic! It just shows we had some people looking to make a quick buck, hadn't done their DD, and were surprised by the news.
I really am shocked at how little time and effort some people put into the research they do on a company before they invest. They say money doesn't buy happiness, and boy, it sure doesn't add any points to your IQ, either...!
Anyhow, griff stated he is waiting until .19 or .20 to get back in. Today's action was not good at all from a technical perspective, and revisiting .20 is certainly a possibility now. I would definitely look for a bounce in that case, though (and it seems griff would be too since he wants to get in there :)
There are too many positives right now for us to breach this strong level of support (.20), however, I do believe it is now likely we'll be spending some more time down here in the ol' pit until some really great news comes out. Does it make sense? Not at all -- but that's the market for you.
Fortunately, I will have some more "cheddar" available in my account tomorrow, so I should be able to take advantage of this short-sighted selling.
I agree that was a big foul-up. I don't know how those posts weren't deleted immediately after it became known that the links didn't work. They are still there.. and they still don't work. Did anyone actually get to see them while they were available?
The only positive from this is that they're clearly planning on having Fuse products in Dick's and CVS in the near future.
Great post. I do admit that I was one of the people who read the past PRs a bit too optimistically, and thought that we'd have EJ on the shelves right now. As your post shows, if you take a closer examination of their exact wording, it does seem that everything still looks great and we have no reason to be worried.
Let's get real -- in the world of pinks, delays of years are not uncommon. So, if Fuse really does come through this summer with EJ on the shelves of GNC followed by the drops, then we will all certainly reap the benefits... and they will not be small. Most pinks do not make it this far, and let's remember that many of them have a FAR higher number of outstanding shares -- 300m to 1b+ is not uncommon down here at all.
The people bailing out right now were clearly in Fuse only to make a quick buck, and did not view it as an investment. To me it just doesn't make much sense -- I thought we were in this game to make money?
Just ask yourself -- has the story behind Fuse fundamentally changed? If things roll out a couple of weeks later than we had originally thought (and this was based on misinterpretation of a PR), will that have a profound effect on the long-term success of Fuse? I completely believe that the answer is no, which leads me to believe that selling at this point is illogical.
Today's PR only serves to reinforce the fact that GNC firmly believes in the potential of Fuse Science's products.
Thanks guys, I am glad someone appreciates the efforts, although one (or maybe two) who shall remain nameless don't seem to have gotten the message.
Yeah I just don't agree with the people here who think that releasing on July 5th vs. June 29th will be a such a horrible event. It's pretty evident that doing it right is a major concern for them, and if they need a few extra days or a week I am perfectly fine with that. The only stumble they've made so far was with Amazon, and I am quite sure they've learned their lesson. I really think they're doing everything they can to avoid missteps this time.
That is pretty awesome.
And did anyone notice how well Ortiz is doing this year?
2012 League Ranks:
• 9th in AL in BA (.309)
• 5th in AL in HR (21)
• 6th in AL in RBI (53)
• 1st in AL in R (56)
• 6th in AL in BB (42)
• 2nd in AL in SLG (.628)
• 1st in AL in OPS (1.028)
Just in case some of you aren't familiar with baseball statistics, an OPS of over 1.000 is huge -- it means you're an offensive monster, and very few players can maintain that for a season. (Babe Ruth's career OPS was 1.146 -- and let's not forget he was an excellent pitcher as well)
Ok, we'll think about that one.. I kinda like my skin the way it is, but we'll see..! $20 sure would be incredible.
Anyway, I do agree that this is a very difficult thing to do (bring a product to market.. successfully.) I have seen plenty of companys with phenomenal products that went down in flames anyway, so it is tough for sure.
With that said, I am not sure if I've seen the combination of world-class endorsements, a top-notch board, meaningful partnerships with some of the biggest players in the industry, incredibly positive product reviews, good transparency, phenomenal branding, and a scientific study proving the effectiveness of the delivery system... that sure is a heck of a lot to have achieved already!
All they need is enough cash ("bullets", as you said) to execute their game plan. It is quite apparent that EnerJel really is phenomenal, and if the drops are anything like it in terms of effectiveness then our dreams may very well become reality.
I get it, but my point was that Ben-Gay will never be cool, regardless of endorsements. It does remain to be seen how Fuse will more effectively market the product, however, I am sure they are waiting until EnerJel is on the shelves before they begin a big push (as a business owner myself, that's what I'd do.) So, I do believe Fuse will be viewed as a very cool brand once word gets out.
Also, apparently Monster is cool enough for people to willingly get the big "M" tattooed on their arm (and various other places.) We can only hope one day Fuse will see this kind of loyalty to the brand. Of course I am optimistic it will be very well-received.
Anyway, let me know if you find someone with a Ben-Gay tattoo...! :)
Below are some Monster ones.. Anyone want to get a nice FUSE tattoo yet?! Maybe if we hit $20 someone would...
http://designs.bigtattooplanet.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/aspect4col3col/artist_profile_as_gallery/monster_logo_copy.jpg
http://bodyartmaster.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/monster-logo-tattoo.jpg
http://www.ratemyink.com/images/ul/116/monster-logo-tattoo-116853.jpeg
http://img.pistolshrimp.mobi/tattoos/originals/35772.jpg
http://s894.photobucket.com/albums/ac143/marsvala/?action=view¤t=100_3647.jpg¤ttag=monster%20logo
You are most welcome. The more I find out about Dr. Tanojo, the more convinced I am that this man is one of the most experienced, knowledgeable individuals Fuse could have possibly hired to conduct this study. He has researched every aspect of skin permeation, from the absorption of corticosteroids delivered via a foam to the effects of chemical weapon agents on the skin. And, of course, he has researched delivery vehicles for transdermally-applied drugs.
In short, Genepharm's Dr. Tanojo is likely one of the world's experts on how compounds are absorbed by and/or pass through the various dermal layers (skin permeation.)
Also, Connetics hired him in 2002, and this company ended up being bought for $640M in 2006. It seems his research for them must have paid off. The company which acquired Connetics, Stiefel Laboratories, was later purchased by GSK. (See the last paragraph of this link http://www.evaluatepharma.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Story&id=50177)
Some links to back up my statements:
http://www.eblue.org/search/quick?search_medline=yes&search_area=platform%2Bmedline&restrictname_author=author&restricttype_author=author&restrictterm_author=tanojo0h&restrictdesc_author=Tanojo+Hanafi
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016836599601543X
http://www.eblue.org/article/S0190-9622%2805%2901306-X/abstract
http://www.ijoeh.com/index.php/ijoeh/article/viewArticle/552
http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/abs/10.1201/9780849359033.ch40
I appreciate where you're coming from, of course there will be intense competition.
However... Please let me know if you think we will see golf bags, skateboards and t-shirts proudly displaying the "BEN-GAY" logo.
The simple fact is that the brand Fuse is creating has a very hip, modern and just "cool" feel to it. You will not see people slapping stickers on their skateboards or wearing t-shirts for Icy-Hot, Ben-Gay or Bio-Freeze. However, I have a feeling that we will see this kind of thing with Fuse, similar to what Monster was able to achieve.
The Monster brand is just "cool". Ben-Gay is not. I really do believe Fuse will be "cool" as well.
I love how you repeatedly refer to Genepharm as an "unknown Chinese staffed research firm." You are obviously implying that they are uneducated, useless apes. Let's take a closer look.
The director of the study was Hanafi Tanojo, Ph.D. This man received his doctorate from Leiden University, which is in The Netherlands. Founded in 1575, it is one of the most well-respected research universities in the Western world (Albert Einstein regularly visited Leiden University.)
This man did not buy a phony Ph.D online for $19.95, nor did he attend a university based in a hut in the Gobi desert, as you would want everyone to believe. In addition to receiving his doctorate from Leiden University, Dr. Tanojo was also a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Department of Dermatology at UCSF. It sounds to me that he was the right man for the job.
You skew the facts, and often try to pass off your own opinions as facts. I normally try to ignore your posts, but we do have some new people on board and they need to be made aware of who you are and what your agenda is.
Your repeated attempts to breed this completely undeserved negativity are, frankly, disgusting. You're the only one here who is angry about DROP sustaining a 50%+ move it made in a month -- I wonder why?
I have been extremely busy with work and various other things, but I just wanted to pop in for a moment to let everyone know I haven't bailed out and am still very optimistic about our prospects. The next week or two should prove to be very exciting!
I will go ahead and add that, in my opinion, a close below .275 is just out of the question at this point, and below .29 is quite unlikely. It looks like we are just in a bit of a consolidation period right now until we get some more news. So, .30 is just about as good as it's going to get -- grab those shares while you can! I sure wish I had more "cheddar" available for Fuse shares right now.
Quite a long post here. Get a nice cup of coffee first.
So, I think everything is just fine. We really showed a lot of strength today in the face of some determined selling. We all know that nothing goes straight up endlessly without a breather, and I always said we could revisit the .20s. But, I also said that we would bounce if we did... and, we did. I think we recovered very nicely today!
Yes, we did very briefly touch .24, and I admit I am a bit surprised (irrational panic-selling can cause surprises!) In a recent post I called for a "strong bounce no lower than .28", and as you know we did dip lower today. However, we did rebound to the .27/28 range literally only minutes after hitting that low, and then began steadily grinding upward. So I think everything worked out pretty well, and my assumption that we would bounce hard on a drop to the .20s was fairly accurate.. but, I did underestimate how much money some people would be willingly to irrationally throw away with market sell orders and shorts.
Brief spikes can of course occur during heavy trading, but in my opinion open/close levels are much more significant than intraday highs/lows. These spikes can take price action outside of well-defined channels or below support, but if the close is still within the channel or above support then I do not consider this to be a break of a trend/support.
This action today was quite similar to what we saw when we were hovering at .20 in early May -- a brief spike below .20 down to .16, followed by a nice recovery and a close at a higher-than-expected level (in my opinion, at least -- today I was looking for .30 even.)
So, where did that ".28" level come from that I mentioned? Several facts: The .275/.28 level was where we saw several significant highs/lows in recent months, and .275 is also a 50% fibo retractment off our recent high of .35. The 50MA is also about .28 now. So, that adds up to a lot of support. .275 was probably more accurate, but then again things don't always line up perfectly to the sub-penny level... so I typically just round it.
So, these unexpected spikes do happen. No matter how much time myself or another spends on analysis there will always be times where something a bit surprising can occur. I am more focused on the long-term, rather than what may occur on a day to day to basis, and so I still feel we will be leaving the .20s behind for good soon (again, close today was extremely strong.)
As for my analysis record, I think I've done pretty well so far. I called .20 as the bottom. I said that if we broke the downtrends I identified then we would likely move upwards, or sideways at worst. Basically, the analysis said "buy all you can in the .20s", and I think that worked out pretty well.
So, we're still looking very good, and we will give the 200MA another shot very soon.
(This post turned out to be a lot longer than I expected!)
Below is a new chart. As you can see, all action over the last few weeks has been confined to a very tight channel. Over the last 5 days we have been trying to move above the 61.8% fibo (this is the "golden retracement"), but it has proven to be a tough nut to crack. With that said, it isn't too surprising to meet resistance here.
The topping tail doesn't trouble me too much, as I still feel our momentum is solidly to the upside. There are way too many positives happening right now, so all but the weakest hands will be staying long. Even though we didn't break the 61.8 fibo of 200MA yet, note that we have consistently been making higher lows.
So, even if we dip below the channel we're in now, I am very confident that we'll get a strong bounce no lower than .28, and this will finally power us through .35-36. Sometimes it takes a few shots to break through resistance, and when we finally do the .40s will be here once again.
MACD also shows a bullish divergence that indicates our uptrend has good momentum (look at early April, and now: MACD shows a higher high whereas price action on the chart shows a lower high -- this is bullish.) MACD is far from a crystal ball, but it is still nice to see that it is in our favor as well.
The thicker trendlines were from our longer term downtrend, which is of course now broken. Red line is 200MA.
It is only a matter of time for sure.
Thanks Bay! You always provide a lot of good insight as well. It is great that we have so many active members here that contribute meaningful information on a daily basis (and, even better is the fact that Fuse continues to deliver!)
I'd also like to note that all candle bodies from today's action conformed exactly to the upper channel that was shown on my last chart (hourlys). Even I am surprised at how well this technical analysis "voodoo" works sometimes..!
With the news and price action we saw today, I am finding it even less likely the .20s will be revisited.
Well said. I believe a drop into the 1295 range on the /ES at this point will lead us quite a bit lower -- look at the head & shoulders which has already formed on the hourlys. With that said, we did solidly break out of a downtrend which existed for the first 3 weeks of May, and so my belief is that the market will be moving mostly sideways with a lot of up and down chop. 1260 on the S&P again? That could happen. But right now I really don't see a catastrophic move back into the 1000s like last year... so much negativity is already priced in here.
As for DROP, I am also becoming increasingly convinced that we have some extremely stubborn shorts who are "throwing good money after bad", as rick said. There comes a time when you have to cut your losses and move on, but it seems they don't want to do that just yet.
With the short interest steadily rising in the last couple of months, it is simply a mathematical certainty that the majority of these positions are in the red and getting worse by the day. Thankfully, we will be laughing all the way to the bank when they finally throw in the towel. Each day that goes by means the inevitable squeeze will be even sharper.
"some folks will take quick 'day-trading' types profits."
I think that is exactly what we've seen a lot of today. We'll be more susceptible to swings from that until word really gets out about this company. hopefully then we'll be able to attract more investors rather than traders to Fuse.
I do hope you'll be holding some shares for the long run and not just a quick trade :) IMO .50 is nothing for DROP, it's now even more clear that this one will return to dollarland in due time.
For sure.. when I got up this morning I thought today was gonna be good because I went long Celgene yesterday (nice little pop today.) But now we have amazing news from Fuse, volume is really picking up and we're passing by the 200MA. Just awesome. .40s looking very close now!
Thanks for stopping by.. we do agree :)
Yes, the shorts have been SO smart. My guess is that virtually all of them are in the red at this point -- as info pointed out before, it is extremely unlikely anyone is still short from the highs of last year. My guess is most of the positions you see in the short interest were initiated in the .20s and .30s. Time for them to cut their losses and move on, clearly they didn't understand what this company has to offer.
You are welcome. I do agree it is just profit taking. Nothing wrong with some people cashing in for a quick 50-75+% gain. But most of us here are looking for much more.. :)
Agreed that it was no surprise. Attached below is another chart (hourlys)
As you can see here, the decline in price today isn't out of line at all with the trend(s) we are beginning to form, especially when you examine the hourlys. Looking closely, you could actually say it was expected.. so I may have been guilty of being a little too bullish the last day or so.
The chart shows trends of varying lengths that I have identified, some of which are very clear to see. The thicker white lines show a wider channel where I am expecting prices to fall inside of. Right now it has stayed at the upper end of that channel.
Interestingly enough, we opened right on the 61.8% retracement and closed right on the 50%. (drawn from a recent .44 high to the .20 low)
I try to remain objective here in my analysis. I will say that revisiting the upper .20s is still a possibility, but in that case we don't need to panic -- in fact, I'd view it as another buying opportunity. I do remain exceptionally bullish, and still believe the 200MA will fall soon. As always, patience is key.
I wanted to post this so that others who might be surprised at the decline today can see they shouldn't be so surprised. All is well.
I saw that as well. The data you've seen is the most recent data available. Even though we had a down day (it had to happen eventually, no one bats 1.000!)
All it means is that the inevitable squeeze will be even bigger than we thought (7 days to cover at current average volume levels). Make no mistake about it, the vast majority of those positions are already in the red, and now they just have to decide when to cut their losses.
Thanks for the chart. I noted your observations in one of my last posts, and you are definitely right -- as long as we can hold here or go higher, the weeklys will be showing a new trend! The dailys have already shown this for several days now.
I agree with makethemoney and expect us to jump the 200MA without much trouble and make a run at the .40s. Around .44 is where I believe we may see resistance, but our momentum is building, and I feel very confident that this move today is just the beginning.
As I've posted before, when looking at the dailys on the charts we have clearly broken up and out of a longer-term downtrend we were in since Dec '11.
Now, UHD recently posted that the weeklys were still unresolved; we hadn't broken out there yet. However, today's move takes us well outside the channel, and maintaining just .32 or .33 for the week will show a breakout for the weeklys as well... .35 or higher would be a lot better though! (and very likely, it seems)
In short, things are looking better with each passing day! Next test is the 200 day MA, as info pointed out. (.36)
Exactly why I won't be selling anytime soon... I think it's STILL dirt cheap down here folks.. and it looks like a lot of people agreed today
Yep, their ad campaign is indeed moving ahead at full steam, I have personally seen them many times in the last week -- some with Tiger, some with Ronde and some with Ortiz. These are the same ads that some members here (including a moderator) originally said I had likely falsely distributed and/or fabricated. It's certainly not the first time that those who questioned if Fuse was going deliver were proven wrong.
According to Bloomberg:
Shares Outstanding (M) - 126.20
Float (M) - 96.77
I am a bit confused, because no where did I say I was going to sell anything. I was saying that NM made a good move by buying in the .30s, because that is still very cheap. I wish I could have bought more at this level, but I have many other investments as well and unfortunately I don't have unlimited funds. Make no mistake about it, I would be loading up every single day at these levels if I could.