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Interesting for sure. It's needs to hold though. That's always been the problem. Hoping we get the update sooner rather than later.
I'd say now is as good a time to buy as any. It's unfortunate that they had as many delays that they had over the past five years but I still believe their approach will ultimately be successful.
I did think the manufacturing facility was a good idea when it was first announced. Clearly that was a mistake given how much it cost to run. Those costs are probably something the company could have been a little more transparent with. With the offloading of the manufacturing they will be better suited to focus on obtaining the data we've all been waiting for. The timeline on that is the next thing I'm waiting for.
If you expect MRKR to trade at or near cash value then when the deal with CellReady closes at the end of the month you should expect the SP to be somewhere around $2.30. Very rough estimate but it's currently trading about $10M over cash value so if you want to add a value over cash then I guess it's safe to stick with that. Including that extra $10M in MC then you can expect the SP to be somewhere around $3.40 by the end of the month when the deal closes. Short term I'd say it's a buy anywhere under that $2.30 cash number.
Vera has mentioned, in a PR and in the interview he recently gave, that they are working on a strategic review and restructuring of their clinical programs and that they expect to share an update, as of May 24th, "in the next few weeks." I'd like this to include a clinical timeline as well so we know when to expect data. We've heard from "previous management" but I want to hear from new management for confirmation. In my communication with the company the main reason for the CellReady deal was to get enough cash to get the company to major inflection points, i.e. data, without major dilution. If that truly is the case then I expect plenty of data over the next year an a half.
As of now, with the information we currently have, the AML MRD data is the closest. We were last told a data readout from this group would be released in the second half of 2023. Initial lymphoma readout sometime early 2024 and I would assume pancreatic sometime in the toward the end of 2024 if they do end up initiating that trial by the end of this year. It will be interesting to see if they are awarded the grant for the pancreatic trial and for how much. As of the last AML adjuvant group update I wouldn't expect any data until the end of next year at the earliest but that really depends on how quick they can enroll that patient group. If they deliver on this data then any short term buy should do pretty well.
I personally believe the MRD data has been overlooked. In the few patients they have treated the results have been good. As of now I don't believe there are any approved therapies for these MRD+ patients. Additionally, last time I checked, it didn't seem that there were very many trials focusing on this either. If the next set of MRD data released shows similar or better results to what we have seen I would argue that to be a great buying opportunity. Especially since, so far, there hasn't been a lot of buzz surrounding this indication. I believe this will be the fist indicator of the long term viability of Marker's therapy.
I think it is pretty clear the main driver right now is lymphoma. If initial lymphoma data is indeed released early next year, and I do want confirmation of this from the new management, that is where I expect to see the largest SP increase provided the data impresses. With what we saw in the PI I don't have much concern here. The lymphoma data was always the best across the BCM PI trials so I would expect that to continue.
All this being said, I think anywhere under $2.30 is a solid buy and all the way up to $3.40 should be fine long term. If the MRD data continues to impress I'd feel a lot more comfortable with buys up to that $3.40 range or even a bit higher. After lymphoma data it's anyone's guess where the SP will be. If the data is solid I don't think anyone will be complaining about purchases down in these price ranges. As always it's ultimately going to come down to how well the new management team can execute.
Given the nature of this post I feel compelled to say that these are my opinions based off my own DD. Everyone should be doing their own DD and is fully responsible for their own decisions.
I think we all want to hear about the adjuvant AML data. I still believe it will be one of the better indications they can go after but ultimately the lymphoma data has been the best so far and the lymphoma market is larger than AML. Lymphoma news has also generated the the best volume over the past year. ~8M shares on the lymphoma IND acceptance and the ~33M so far today on this news. For comparison the pancreatic IND acceptance generated ~110K in volume.
Obviously traders trade momentum but it seems pretty clear to me that lymphoma news will be a driver here.
The pre-clinical news today was never meant to be ground breaking. What it does is show that Marker is on the right track in targeting anti-CD19 CAR-T refractory patients. They obviously need to duplicate these results in the current trial but we do already have data from the BCM trial that shows plenty of success.
So many people spent so much time over the years complaining about the company's lack of communication and here we get some news. Is it a coincidence that it is around the same time we get a shake up in management? Who knows. Let's hope this is just the beginning of more open communication from the company.
I think we'll be waiting a bit for that adjuvant AML data but if it can at least mirror the PI results I think we'll be in good shape.
Oh I comprehend. The connections just don't go anywhere. You have been constantly complaining about the IP for as long as you have been spewing your garbage on this board but have yet to do any DD on the matter. How bout instead of posing unlimited questions you do some actual DD and report back to us with sources.
Vera co-founded both companies. He will always have ties to AlloVir especially still sitting on the BoD. The technology is more or less the same just one in the field of cancer and one in the field of infectious diseases.
His ownership in AlloVir is irrelevant. I know the next words out of LC's mouth if I gave him the information was going to be some sort of conspiracy on how Vera's position in AlloVir is somehow going to sway how he runs Marker and I don't feel like feeding his agenda.
LOL. Wow. I knew you absolutely refuse to do any of your own DD but don't get mad at me for not doing it for you.
I don't care what Vera's AlloVir position is. If I knew it off the top of my head I would tell you. Given that I don't care I'm not going to go out of my way to look it up. I posted a direct link to the filings. If you don't want to take the 5 minutes to look through them then you don't deserve the information.
I posted the link to all his SEC filings in my previous post. You can look through them for the AlloVir forms. There aren't that many.
I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you are not intending to be malicious here. I'm instead going to assume that you just posted some random information from a subpar website without understanding what they are presenting. The reality is it's probably both.
This website you linked to just aggregates filings. It doesn't even try to be accurate with the information. Additionally, it is clearly lumping in all of Vera's MRKR and ALVR activity. They acknowledge this in one spot while ignoring it in others.
I totally understand Proactive's mix up. I still won't excuse it given Marker paid them. There are plenty of other resources available to them. They could have taken two seconds to double check that they got it right. Instead they rushed it. It was a three minute interview and a three paragraph "article." You can't mess that up. Especially when the company has paid you.
lol. Yea, that's the big error I alluded to. You'd think they would get it right since they were paid to write that trash.
Should be plenty of time if they truly are prepared to solely focus on their trials. Based on recent events it does seem that is the case. We knew the company has been conducting a strategic review of their clinical programs but I guess the one thing I got from that interview is it sounds like we should be getting an update on that review in the next few weeks. Hopefully it impresses.
Not only did they pay for what amounts to nothing, Proactive made a pretty HUGE error in the "article" that shows their incompetence. Not a great look. That being said, it's not like anyone will see this anyways.
For context global psoriasis market is roughly $25B annually (SOURCE). Worldwide roughly 125M people suffer from it.
The global AML market size is roughly between $1B and $2B annually. I’m seeing different numbers. (SOURCE 1 SOURCE 2). About 20k cases each year in the US (SOURCE). Note that this is total, not post-transplant. Of AML cases I think roughly 80% of them ultimately end up having a transplant.
The global Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma market is currently roughly $8.5B annually (SOURCE 1 SOURCE 2 SOURCE 3). Roughly 80k cases each year in the US (SOURCE). Note here that Marker is specifically targeting patients who have failed or are ineligible for CAR-T.
The global pancreatic cancer market is roughly $2B annually. (SOURCE 1 SOURCE 2). Roughly 65k cases each year in the US (SOURCE).
I fully believe it is worth going after pancreatic cancer. Below is reposted from my previous post regarding my thoughts on pancreatic:
"This one gets a lot of flak from people saying they shouldn't be pursuing it. Ultimately, I disagree. They might consider putting it on hold to save as much money as they can but I believe it makes sense to pursue. Pancreatic cancer is basically a death sentence and treatment options are limited. I believe the bar to an approval is relatively low. The PI done at BCM yielded one CR. If I remember correctly that CR was noted well beyond where it would have been seen with chemo alone. It's obviously a long shot but given how cheap Marker's therapy is to produce, the low bar for approval (IMO), and the CR we saw in the PI I think it at least warrants further exploration. The more shots on goal the better."
There is no regulation saying institutions cannot buy shares of companies under $5. We've been over this.
Solid response from Dr. Vera. I'll list my comments in relation to each indication he addresses.
AML: His response solidifies what my beliefs have been for a while. Frank relapse is going to be tough to manage. This is why my expectations were always low regarding that data. The MRD data is going to be the best bet for the active setting of the trial. I'm looking forward to seeing more of it because as of now I don't believe there is a viable treatment for MRD+ patients. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. No comments from him on the adjuvant setting but this is where MT-401 should show the most promise. Data should be a ways out given how long patients need to be monitored.
Lymphoma: This should have been the initial focus over AML however I understand their reasoning, as it was presented to me, that at the time of the merger there were recent CAR-T approvals to contend with and recruiting a clinical trial would have been somewhat hindered. There is still plenty of promise here in treating patients who have failed or are ineligible for CAR-T which is what they are doing in this trial. Hopefully adding the 6th antigen will help the results. Vera seems to think so and I have no reason not to trust him. He definitely knows what he is doing.
Pancreatic: This one gets a lot of flak from people saying they shouldn't be pursuing it. Ultimately, I disagree. They might consider putting it on hold to save as much money as they can but I believe it makes sense to pursue. Pancreatic cancer is basically a death sentence and treatment options are limited. I believe the bar to an approval is relatively low. The PI done at BCM yielded one CR. If I remember correctly that CR was noted well beyond where it would have been seen with chemo alone. It's obviously a long shot but given how cheap Marker's therapy is to produce, the low bar for approval (IMO), and the CR we saw in the PI I think it at least warrants further exploration. The more shots on goal the better.
It really does seem like they are trying to do right by shareholders with these past few updates. They still have a lot of work to do though.
I hate to have to provide information that might help learningcurve's case but from past company presentations I believe Marker's therapy costs roughly $10k to manufacture and that's for an entire year's worth of treatment. It's ridiculously cost effective. Especially when compared to other T-Cell Therapies.
All that being said the thought that they should pivot to a veterinary setting is asinine. Especially when you take into account the results they have shown in the PI trials.
I'm assuming you're just refusing to acknowledge the fact that this current deal took the cash runway out long enough that we should get plenty of data to see an increase in SP if results impress. I understand this doesn't fit your narrative but GMA literally just said this in the post you are responding to yet you just ignore it.
This deal was done with zero shareholder dilution. When we get to the point they need to raise more funds the whole goal is to have the SP way higher than it is now so the dilutive effects to existing shareholders are minimal. Remains to be seen if that will happen and I honestly don't care about your opinion on this.
At some point cash will need to be raised. That's the nature of these small cap bio companies. I know you know that. Yes, it dilutes shareholders. Again, that's just how it works. The whole goal is to progress the company to a point that the effect to current shareholders is minimal.
I know the company has it's faults but you can't, in good faith, keep denying that this deal was very shareholder friendly. Continuing with the manufacturing endeavors at the cash burn they were would have completely sunk the company.
I agree here 100%. This recent deal makes it abundantly clear that the company is getting away from manufacturing so they can strictly focus on the clinical results. Don't get me wrong, the manufacturing improvements they made along the way were great. Unfortunately, they did take resources from the clinical trials. Marker is not a manufacturing company. The shareholders are here for data and I am happy that they are now making the trials their main focus. A cash runway to the end of 2025 means we should see plenty of data well before they need to do another capital raise. It's basically a fresh start. It's unfortunate it took this long to realize the trials should have taken precedent over the manufacturing but it's still a plus.
You can only go off of what has been publicly released. Yes, Wilson did receive something for his ~$30M. You can't fault him for that. Additionally, estimates given were that the sale of the manufacturing facilities will save Marker roughly $11M per year as they no longer need to employ and pay staff or pay the maintenance to run everything. So in addition to selling the manufacturing facilities for roughly cost CellReady will be shouldering most of the future manufacturing costs. We have no way to know what those costs are but the savings to Marker are clearly stated. To put it plainly. There were two scenarios here:
1) Marker keeps their facility. They get no additional cash and are burning at least an additional $11M per year to run it. Given they had ~$6M in the bank this would have lead to a disastrous dilution event for shareholders.
2) Marker sells the facility. Gets $19M cash in the bank and is saving $11M per year by not having to run it.
It's pretty clear as day that Marker will be receiving services from CellReady for at least $11M a year less than if they were running the manufacturing themselves.
This quote from Wilson in the Bio-Techne PR sure hits hard:
"The problem exists because there isn't an off-the-shelf, FDA compliant, cell manufacturing process. Nearly all CGT companies are venture backed and need to obtain meaningful clinical data before they can raise more money. As companies try to create their clinical cell manufacturing process, they easily become stalled and the delay burns through precious venture money. They need to stay solvent by raising more money, forcing companies to start clinical trials with a suboptimal manufacturing process. Invariably, this comes back to haunt them and their investors."
And I can't believe your eyes haven't fallen out of your head with how much you roll them.
I don't believe he owns enough of AlloVir to have pull there. Other than his share ownership he has no more affiliation with them. Plus, AlloVir is not a stand alone company. It's part of Elevate Bio so pretty much any deal between MRKR and ALVR would need to go through them. Not that it would never happen but there are a lot of moving parts there.
I think it was definitely called for when all you have ever done is post your unfounded claims with no evidence to ever back anything you say up. You do zero DD, have no shares, yet constantly complain and make wild accusations that the company exists solely to shaft its shareholders. Like the fact that they just completely screwed the pooch and made horrible decisions that let to the decline doesn't sit with you. No, everything they did was malicious with the sole intent of harming shareholders. Even though Wilson, Vera, and Hoang are all shareholders themselves.
Good thing Marker's trials don't cost $100M.
Given that Marker is not a manufacturing company and Wilson just purchased their manufacturing facilities for basically cost I will call it a wash. You call it what you want I really don't care. Wilson Wolf took nothing for themselves. CellReady did ;). But they paid for it so it was a fair deal.
Wilson could have built out his own manufacturing facility at any point. This was clearly a lifeline thrown to MRKR.
I've previously said I will not be responding to you and I'll admit that I let my frustrations get the better of me. As did you from what I could tell. I would like to apologize to you on that front but also request that you refrain from accusations against me, or other posters that you assume to be me as I only have this one account, for trying to manipulate this or any other stock as well as any individuals. You are certainly free to believe what you want but I'm just a lowly retail investor like everyone else who made a massive error by investing here way too early. As I have maintained I do believe there is a path forward for their therapy but probably should have waited to make my initial investment, or other subsequent investments. I will continue to ride this out at the very least until lymphoma data.
With that out of the way, John Wilson had no affiliation with TPIV. That was Glynn Wilson and he is long gone. I don't know how John Wilson found himself associated with Marker other than the fact that he owns Wilson Wolf who manufactures the G-Rex devices they use to manufacture their cells. Either way he has invested a ton of money into this either personally or through companies he owns, e.g. the $9M investment through Wilson Wolf and now this $19M. That's on top of the $3M he personally invested in a previous offering. If nothing else it seems pretty clear he has some conviction here. I hope he knows what he's doing.
Speaking of bonuses he has been eligible to receive a stock incentive equaling up to 50% of his annual salary per his employment agreement. The board awarded him 0 incentive this year.
Below is his separation agreement:
Mr. Hoang resigned as our President and Chief Executive Officer effective May 1, 2023. In connection with his resignation, Mr. Hoang and the Company entered into the Separation Agreement (the “Separation Agreement”), dated as of April 27, 2023, providing for the terms of Mr. Hoang’s separation from employment with the Company effective May 1, 2023. Under the Separation Agreement, the Company has agreed, provided that Mr. Hoang does not revoke the Separation Agreement during the seven-day period following his signing of the agreement, to provide Mr. Hoang with the following separation payments and benefits: (i) a payment equal to 12 months of his annual base salary, as in effect at the date of his separation from the Company, less all applicable taxes and withholdings, to be paid in a lump sum; and (ii) subject to Mr. Hoang’s election of COBRA, payment of the premiums for group health and/or dental insurance coverage under COBRA until the earlier of (a) May 30, 2024, (b) the date on which Mr. Hoang becomes eligible to receive group health insurance coverage through another employer, or (c) the date Mr. Hoang ceases to be eligible for COBRA continuation coverage for any reason. The Separation Agreement contains releases, subject to customary exceptions, and covenants not to disparage.
HUGE shakeup. Hoang is stepping down as CEO. Vera is new CEO. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Theoretically they should help across the board. It doesn't seem like they did much given the early AML results though. As I've always said though the adjuvant AML is where we need to see results. The active setting was always a tossup. It remains to be seen what the additional antigens do for lymphoma and pancreatic but that data is a long way off.
I know it's very hard for you but if you do a little DD and you might be able to figure it out. I have faith that you'll figure it out champ. Good Luck!
LOL! Says the person who literally blamed an anonymous person on an internet message board.