I'd say now is as good a time to buy as any. It's unfortunate that they had as many delays that they had over the past five years but I still believe their approach will ultimately be successful.
I did think the manufacturing facility was a good idea when it was first announced. Clearly that was a mistake given how much it cost to run. Those costs are probably something the company could have been a little more transparent with. With the offloading of the manufacturing they will be better suited to focus on obtaining the data we've all been waiting for. The timeline on that is the next thing I'm waiting for.
If you expect MRKR to trade at or near cash value then when the deal with CellReady closes at the end of the month you should expect the SP to be somewhere around $2.30. Very rough estimate but it's currently trading about $10M over cash value so if you want to add a value over cash then I guess it's safe to stick with that. Including that extra $10M in MC then you can expect the SP to be somewhere around $3.40 by the end of the month when the deal closes. Short term I'd say it's a buy anywhere under that $2.30 cash number.
Vera has mentioned, in a PR and in the interview he recently gave, that they are working on a strategic review and restructuring of their clinical programs and that they expect to share an update, as of May 24th, "in the next few weeks." I'd like this to include a clinical timeline as well so we know when to expect data. We've heard from "previous management" but I want to hear from new management for confirmation. In my communication with the company the main reason for the CellReady deal was to get enough cash to get the company to major inflection points, i.e. data, without major dilution. If that truly is the case then I expect plenty of data over the next year an a half.
As of now, with the information we currently have, the AML MRD data is the closest. We were last told a data readout from this group would be released in the second half of 2023. Initial lymphoma readout sometime early 2024 and I would assume pancreatic sometime in the toward the end of 2024 if they do end up initiating that trial by the end of this year. It will be interesting to see if they are awarded the grant for the pancreatic trial and for how much. As of the last AML adjuvant group update I wouldn't expect any data until the end of next year at the earliest but that really depends on how quick they can enroll that patient group. If they deliver on this data then any short term buy should do pretty well.
I personally believe the MRD data has been overlooked. In the few patients they have treated the results have been good. As of now I don't believe there are any approved therapies for these MRD+ patients. Additionally, last time I checked, it didn't seem that there were very many trials focusing on this either. If the next set of MRD data released shows similar or better results to what we have seen I would argue that to be a great buying opportunity. Especially since, so far, there hasn't been a lot of buzz surrounding this indication. I believe this will be the fist indicator of the long term viability of Marker's therapy.
I think it is pretty clear the main driver right now is lymphoma. If initial lymphoma data is indeed released early next year, and I do want confirmation of this from the new management, that is where I expect to see the largest SP increase provided the data impresses. With what we saw in the PI I don't have much concern here. The lymphoma data was always the best across the BCM PI trials so I would expect that to continue.
All this being said, I think anywhere under $2.30 is a solid buy and all the way up to $3.40 should be fine long term. If the MRD data continues to impress I'd feel a lot more comfortable with buys up to that $3.40 range or even a bit higher. After lymphoma data it's anyone's guess where the SP will be. If the data is solid I don't think anyone will be complaining about purchases down in these price ranges. As always it's ultimately going to come down to how well the new management team can execute.
Given the nature of this post I feel compelled to say that these are my opinions based off my own DD. Everyone should be doing their own DD and is fully responsible for their own decisions.
My DD is not a substitute for your DD
