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Alea, who is to determine the "quality" of his judgment? Who's to say his judgment isn't sound and will prove to be sound based on what he knows to be true? What if he knows things you don’t know? What if your judgment proves to be wrong? What if doubling down on his shares will ultimately make him a genius in the near future and those that sell or simply hold fools? I typically find your reasoning to be as healthy as most I’ve read on these boards. Not on a soap box here considering some of my stupid posts but I think you missed it on this one. Based on what I think of course which ultimately doesn't matter either. Jeff
Ramsey, I dont think you're being overly optimistic. I also agree that the share price is going to move upward within a time period that's conducive to avoiding a delist on the NAZ. I'm not being a Wave cheerleader either. I simply dont think people generally understand, dont know or dont want to know the reality as it relates to getting capital. A viable product(s) which provide real solutions to real problems and has product integrated into the product mix offered by and marketed by the likes of Dell, Intel, Seagate etc etc... Will not have an issue with (somehow) finding the capital. There is so much Wave can say publically right now that they simply can't IMO. I dont think you're stretching yourself with your opinion by any means. Jeff
Great points Ramsey. I'm with you on your answer to question 6. I've done the same and will continue to increase my holdings if a 2 to 1 went down. But I think Wave will find alternate options for capital. Jeff
It's amazing to me how posts like this get no attention these days.... Bring on the nay sayers but, the writing IS on the wall. If you can't read the writing at this point then you simply can't read. ALL Seagate HD's will be encrypted HD's. Wave will realize revenue from this FACT. If you think otherwise then see me in 3-5 years. Oh, I know... Wave will run out of money and have gone BK by then?! That's funny to me as well. One for the sheep I suppose. Jeff
Nice choice!
Did anybody mention the fact that SRA recently financed Nolan Bushnell's new comapny Uwink? I highly doubt the money is going to run out for Wave any time soon. I believe the capital pool is deeper than most realize. I'm not worried in the least. Just wish this dog would run a little faster than I originally expected. Times like this seperate the rich from the poor. Jeff
Chowder, c'mon man... PC security IS NOT immune to market downturn. Everything is vernerable to market downturn at some level. I'm not talking about tightening budgets here. I'm talking about cutting cost to a point where you live to see another day. SKS has made the very same quote about the stupid IT guy for how many years? What's another year bro? Especially when you may be looking at cutting employees? Jeff
I already have accumulated and will continue. Many of us have been through many cycles. My only observation is that this seems to be looking like the same cycle I've already seen back at 9/11. Looks and feels very familiar to me. Jeff
Chowder, I dont disagree about the cc. But it's about the revenue scale and expectation. The economy does jeopardize the revenue scale (and my expectation) as we speak. Are you saying TJMAXX is buying Wave?? IT dollars or heads rolling? Which do you think are more important to companies right now? Easy answer from what I see. Jeff
Care to alaborate on what full throttle looks like relative to dollars right now?? I think it's apples and oranges in terms of the dollars I'm discussing at this point. Jeff
CM, I agree. The enterprise market down trend is just beginning. I'm spending 80% of my time meeting with large customers strictly over spend reduction. IT spending has got to be effected by the economy right now. Better to put off budgeted spend and cut cost than to reduce head count is what I'm seeing and hearing. Anybody who is bullish is sure to get the horns. Jeff
I agree with the points you make. The only thing I'll add is that Wave's products will become "turn-key" at some point. The technology says so. Jeff
I'll email you our CIO email address to send to the approriate Wave representative. I work for a company which services North America and has approximately 10K employees. We use Levono notebooks (typing on my T60 now)and HP desktops. We currently do not use encryption products but I've been hearing some drums in the background recently. I spoke to our CIO last year and she knew nothing about TPM's (go figure!!! LOL). On it's way. Thanks in advance for forwarding. jeff
Ramsey, I dont think we disagree... I didn't expect Wave to go out in the market and close big customers. Big customers have extended contracts with existing vendors and tremendous sales to install cycles. In any industry for that matter. You have followed the particulars much closer than I relating to the when, what and who in that arena. But I dont think it's a stretch to believe Wave could be generating a solid 1/2 million more dollars a quarter (right now) as a result of early efforts selling to small to medium size firms. A couple closes a month and some re-investment in expanding your sales and service staff would of painted a different picture than we're looking at today. Not to mention, everybody feels better about the fact that the Wave team did EVERYTHING in their power to provide share holder value (better financing having a larger customer base generating risidual revenue?).
I'm as bullish as anybody here about Wave's ultimate success. You know that! I'm not on any timeline for an ROI either. I simply think it would be nice for our CEO to convey a little verbal accountability once in a while. It shows emotional intelligence. Jeff
Ramsey, The following statement in your post says it all:
"In any case I think it became clear immediately that Wave would have to be hands-on in doing the upsells, because for one thing there were technical complexities in installing these initial systems (pilots of course). As I see how it unfolded from the start is that Dell handed prospective customers off to Wave, and then it was up to Wave to do the sale. Why there was so little traction in TPM upgrade sales from April 2006 through Q3 2007 other than some pilots, is a fact only history can bear out as this story continues to unfold."
"Immediately" is a key word. My first point is that CEO's are paid to forecast when "immediately" might take place and prepare for it.
As you claim Wave realized they would have to be hands-on in doing upsells in April 2006 (two years ago). Stevens premise was to WAIT for Dell to hand off leads to Wave so they could upsell. My issue continues with the decision made to rely on Dell to furnish leads. A bad idea which cost two years of no leads proving to reveal no revenue. Hence, Steven claims nobody get's it? Nobody knows what this technology can do? Who would have known nobody would upgrade? A clear lack of accountability in terms of selling their product which ultimately they're responsible to share holders to do themselves at the end of the day.
Clearly, Chris Cahalin thought they had a cost effective and secure solution all the way back in September of 2006? Isn't it ironic (even though Chris had to claim Dell tipped him off to the technology) that Wave made the one and only sales win DIRECTLY? The Papa Gino's close proved their product could be sold and had an immediate impact on cost reduction and improved security. No way around that fact my favorite Wave friend.
"Papa Gino's is moving to TPM-based machines in a controlled manner as it purchases laptops and desktops through planned upgrades, which cover 63% of its mobile workforce. The software has cost $6,900 to implement so far, while Papa Gino's has seen a better than triple ROI of $22,400 in the first year. "That's in support costs, and in having centralized control over the encryption methods used," he says."
http://www.networkworld.com/allstar/2006/092506-chip-security-papa-gino.html?page=1
I've been selling less "elegant" products than Wave had available back in 2006 for 17 years. There's absolutely no doubt in mind that Wave could have directly sold their product over the last two years with a prepared sales and service team. If you look at the size of customers they're selling now (mostly small to medium sized firms) we clearly get the picture they could have landed that size of business consistently over the last two years. Wave would have a tried and true sales and service team today with two years under their belts of sales wins and service execution. The shareholders would be looking at a different share price result today and feeling better about the leadership of the company.
I stand firm in my opinion that SKS made a critical error in judgement which has cost us in a dilultion of our investment over the last two years. I personally think it wont matter in the end but life could have been a whole lot better then it has my friend. Coulda, woulda, shoulda I suppose. Jeff
Weby, You had the following concern years ago and posted your sentiments then...
"Breakeven may take longer because this thing is needing more Wave salespeople than originally prognosticated. Dell can sell, but Dell ain't installing the first units and smoothng out the snags."
You weren't buying Stevens plan to let the OEM's sell his product out of the gates then and I think you and everybody else realize this was a major judgement in error on SKS's part now. I shared your concern years ago and I've watched this unfold in a way that's simply taking too long to recover from the initial bad judgement call. When one realizes one is behind in the game due to a bad judgement call then one has to come up with a viable action plan to recover and move forward as quickly as possible. Thus far, bad judgement call and slow action plan.
Investors might understand the need for additional financing if Steven just said he made a bad call and needed the additional money for sales staff to shorten sales to install cycles. What investors dont understand is the same ole "I know what I'm doing but I have limited resources" story.
I've given Steven allot of rope over the years. He needed to plan and allocate the required sales resources needed to hit the pavement and sell his goods when it counted. Thinking Dell was going to do it for him "initially" was a a very naive judgement call. When SKS claimed in the last CC "who knew?" that 20 million TPM's would deploy and nobody would turn them on (not even 1-3%) I simply laughed. A rookie comment with no accountability associated with it. He would have been laughed out of one of my staff meetings for saying something along those lines.
This bird is going to fly. No doubt in my mind. But Steven's bad call here cost us all another year.
Steven,if you're reading this post then leverage the money to get the poeple in the field to sell and install your product. Fortunately, due to the current economic situation, companies are looking for ANY area to cut cost. It's a good thing your product offers an innovative, secure and cost reducing solution.
Jeff
OCLV, That is about what I expect as well. 2.4 Million that is. Jeff
Ramsey, as you stated, SRA is underwater from previous placements. That fact has contributed to an unfavorable placement this time around. I think there's a "chance" the next two quarters will yield "substantial" revenue increases but I doubt that will happen. I say substantial only if the revenue increases move the share price needle significantly. IMO break even by Q2 would do the trick but again I doubt that will happen. I'm more inclined to believe that Q4 will be the breakeven quarter once and for all. Finally. I base my opinion on long sales and upgrade cycles for FDE. I'm most excited about MSFT Server 2008 pushing NAC, NAP and TNC the latter half of this year and blowing out 2009. What a wonderful time it is to invest in Wave for the first time! I consider those investors lottery winners! Hope life finds you well my friend. Jeff
Snack, I picked up more shares today at $1.38. Can't believe I got it so cheap especially with the MSFT Server news today. Jeff
Awk, so what are your thoughts with respect to the relationship between Credant and Wave as it relates to their respective partnerships with Intel (Vpro technology)? How does their partnership work from a tech standpoint and do you think they're collaborating today to close new business? Maybe CM can shed some light on the government business? Thanks. Jeff
http://www.credant.com/content/view/313/62/
"CREDANT teamed with Intel Corp. to take advantage of the new hardware-based security capabilities of Intel vPro technology to protect against data-at-rest vulnerabilities. CREDANT will be adding these features to a new release of CMG Enterprise Edition later this year, which will allow CREDANT customers to take advantage of the enhanced security and management capabilities of Intel vPro-based platforms as they are introduced into their organizations."
"In the Americas, the company experienced especially strong growth within government, insurance/financial services, and healthcare sectors. For 2007, these verticals accounted for 60 percent of CREDANT’s revenue, with approximately half of that coming from sales to the federal, state and local government verticals."
"CREDANT was selected by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to provide the federal government encryption products for data-at-rest security. The blanket purchase agreement, awarded by DoD’s Enterprise Software Initiative (ESI) and available government-wide through GSA’s SmartBUY program, helps agencies meet a key OMB mandate to encrypt data at rest and data stored on vulnerable endpoints."
"Growth in EMEA, fueled by the growing awareness of the need to protect the privacy of data, resulted in CREDANT adding key customers including one of the three largest electric utilities in Europe; one of South Africa’s largest financial services groups; Italy’s largest power company and Europe’s second-largest utility for installed capacity; a mobile network operator headquartered in Germany; and many more. The increase in market demand spurred the expansion of the CREDANT team in EMEA and plans for aggressive growth in 2008."
From SKS's Presentation last week:
"We have global distribution today. We’re selling product in Asia, in Europe, and in North America. We’re working on various countries in South America, some of South Africa, to make sure that we have response."
I know the above dot is a stretch but who knows? Jeff
Ramsey, Thanks for doing the math. I have a much better perspective now! Let's hope MSFT Server 2008 and NAC move us forward quicker! Jeff
I agree. NAC will prove to be the catalyst to upgrades IMO. All of the industry analysts as we know are predicting NAC to be big in 2008. Let’s hope so. Jeff
Ramsey: As usual you make a great point pertaining to Wave’s customer base. The customer base is the only area of Wave's business SKS is willing to discuss CLEARLY at this time. The upgrade cycles within the current customer base and sales cycles for new customers is what we should all be reviewing. Example... Wave CLOSED a +100k customer who has upgraded several hundred units since the last CC. Not a rapid pace. On the other hand, the close rate of new business is pretty good. Specifically, the new business is comprised of small to medium sized companies. I think it’s safe to conclude at this point that Wave is closing smaller volume customers quickly and the larger customers are probably going to be caught in slower sales and upgrade cycles. I believe its great news that Wave is closing the small to medium sized businesses at a decent pace. Nothing new in terms of selling and upgrading huge business. I find Wave’s sales and upgrade cycles to be normal as it relates to any industry. Given my take, I think AWK’s revenue numbers are correct on the low side unless Wave closes several more large (100K) customers in the next quarter or two. Jeff
Exactly New Wave. I heard nothing in that presentation which would lead me to believe in some of the numbers that have been posted today. Long upgrade and selling cycles. Mid to the latter half of the year will be the time to get excited IMO. Jeff
CS, Some points:
- Turning on the TPM = Choosing the highest level of security available in the world. A niche market as we speak.
- The sales cycle for prospective and TPM educated customers is well over three months.
- You heard the last CC with respect to Wave's sales pipeline. With the exception of one Govt. customer (+100K seats) with a long upgrade cycle (year(s))..... The other five or so customers were small potatoes.
- I would assume the next CC will reveal more pipeline and give us a better idea of potential revenue over the next several quarters.
- The above points are strictly relating to TPM upgrade growth. FDE.2 is another story.
Jeff
Dory, I think you're forgetting sales and upgrade cycle lead times. You need to cut your 5-6 million for Q1 in half and that's not conservative IMO. Jeff
My father taught me (coaching little league together when I was a teenager) the importance of winning. When a team wins, all the mistakes and failures during the game seem to be forgotten. I dont think it's going to be any different when Wave wins. I would venture to say that when (not if) Wave provides the shareholder value we have all expected all these years, that any further complaints (if any) will go unheard. In the meantime, everybody does have the right to have complain.
Micro, I have to disagree... I dont think the consumer cares about DRM. Just look at the success of Apple. The consumer cares about getting the right kind of content with associated bell's and whistles that otherwise is not available. Ipod serves as a perfect example. Numerous examples available to support this disagreement.
I believe the failure of viiv is directly associated with the fact that they never offered anything that a consumer couldn't get access too already? Not to mention, the bell's and whistles viiv offered did not justify a reason to run out and buy a new system.
Now if Intel struck a deal with the major movie studios that they could offer movies "on demand" at the same time movies opened in theaters then there would have been a mad rush to buy a new viiv system. Nobody would care about DRM would they? In fact, you and I would have a viiv system sitting in our living room right now wouldn't we?
Jeff
Xbox Live account takeovers put users at risk
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/01/09/xbox_live_account_takeovers/
Celebrity gamer wants his virtual armor back
By Dan Goodin in San Francisco → More by this authorPublished Wednesday 9th January 2008 20:44 GMTWatch online now - The findings of The Register's Virtualization Study Hackers have hijacked the Xbox Live account of a celebrity gamer and made off with a prized piece of virtual armor in a brazen act that suggests the online Microsoft service still puts the security of its users at risk.
Colin Fogle gained widespread acclaim in gaming circles after posting a video showing how it was possible for a Halo 3 player to shoot and kill himself with his own sniper rifle. Bungie Studios, maker of the wildly popular first-person shooter title, was so impressed it awarded him a special piece of in-game Recon armor and publicly acknowledged the feat.
Since then, the 18-year-old says his Xbox Live account has been hijacked three times. The most recent takeover came on December 29, when he was suddenly logged out of his Xbox Live account. When he tried to log back in, he got error messages saying his password didn't match his user name. And because accounts contain credit card numbers, home addresses and credentials used to log in to Hotmail and MSN Messenger accounts, the breach goes beyond a mere affront to a gamer's pride.
"With this kind of information, they can steal much bigger things than my virtual armor," Fogle says. "If somebody doesn't like you, anyone can do this. The thing that upsets me the most is that, as we looked into this more and more, we saw how easy it is."
Indeed, web searches like this one suggest it's not unusual for Xbox Live subscribers to report their accounts have been taken over.
Kevin Finisterre, a security researcher and Xbox Live enthusiast, has also investigated the topic when someone broke into his girlfriend's account last March after the pair accused some gaming rivals of cheating during a spirited session of Halo 2.
"At the end of the match, we voiced our opinion and a kid says, 'Shut up or I'll steal your Xbox Live account," Finisterre says. "About eight hours later, I wasn't able to log into my girlfriend's account."
Both Fogle and Finisterre say the thieves then took to online forums to brag of the exploits. In both cases, the thieves claimed they were able to access the accounts by coaxing information out from Xbox Live support employees.
The hackers frequently will call the toll-free number and pretend to be the owner of the account they want to take over. They will provide the Xbox Live ID and then ask for the physical address that's associated with the account. Later, they'll call back and ask for the phone number. Eventually, the hackers assemble enough information to convince a support person they are the rightful owners of the account.
Finisterre was able to piece together details of a friend's account when he (and the friend, who silently listened) used the technique last year. Managers from Xbox Live implemented changes designed to stop the abuse, Finisterre says, but even then, he continued to receive emails from frustrated game players who said their Xbox accounts had been broken into.
Microsoft representatives didn't respond to a request for comment. Fogle says he recently received a password reset form from Xbox support, but he has yet to complete it pending an investigation into the hack.
Meanwhile, the thief sporting Fogle's armor continues to cavort in forums and taunt its rightful owner.
Says Fogle: "Microsoft over time has shown they won't do anything unless it's a huge PR issue for them. We're paying dearly for this [service], and there's a huge security hole where we can lose our identity." ®
Does the size of the ad count? If it's 25 times larger than the normal size ad? Simple ad with three points:
- Dell's security Best Practices
- Seagate Hardware Encrypting HDD
- Wave Systems Corporation Management Solution
Page A22 all.... Simply awesome! Everything I expected and more. Thanks Wave. Jeff
I sent one of my people out to get me the paper. Can't wait to see it! This is big! Jeff
A defining moment for sure.... Wonder how many associates on the street are asking who the hell Wave is? Just a little chicken change from the street and we'll be on our way. Jeff
Of course Paul flipped from a liberal to a republican. Not to mention he'll be out of the running after tomorrow most likely.
Romney sure was knowledgeable about tamper proof biometric cards wasn't he? Jeff
DD, nice point. It's all about branding. How much is Dell and Seagate’s branding worth? Both brands are at the top of their industries as it relates to enterprise common knowledge which translates directly to their top line revenue. To think that Wave's beginning to establish their branding with the likes of Dell and Seagate FOR FREE is incredible. How much is that going to be worth to Wave in the future? Wave's brand becoming enterprise common knowledge will sell their product.
It's funny, I was purchasing another piece of equipment for my home gym the other day and there was a specific brand of equipment that offered an Ipod station which is integrated on the equipment. Of course, my wife wanted the brand with the Ipod station. If Apple would brand with X line of equipment then that line must have the best quality (in my wife’s viewpoint). I went home and did the research on that piece of equipment and it turns out it's manufactured by the same company in China which manufactures several other well known lines of the very same piece of equipment.
Not much different with the Dell, Seagate and Wave scenario.... Wave cross branding with Dell and Seagate for free is unbelievable IMO. Jeff
CM, Thanks for getting me... I also don’t take being right too seriously either. Some people do, so out of respect I admit when I'm wrong (which happens quite a bit).
I like your new mantra and you can count me in. Health and happiness. Jeff
Happy New Year to you CM.
All of your effort towards the government space is much appreciated. Not to mention, you were right and I was wrong about the consumer market .
Although I don't believe we'll see a significant (significant being relative) share price rise until after mid 2008 (hope I'm wrong about that as well)... I'm stoked that this will be the year to make some money.
Wishing everybody (especially my invested friends) nothing but black with their Wave investment.
Jeff
I cannot agree more Snack. Especially the bold claim:
"THE MOST SECURE COMPUTER IN THE WORLD"
HP will be forced to compete or offer the same technology. If they choose to compete then I can't wait to see what technology they go with to counter claim THEY have "THE MOST SECURE COMPUTER IN THE WORLD". Good luck?!
For those that think an HP annoucement wouldn't make a difference in our share price will need to think again. I believe an HP / Seagate / Wave announcement (same as Dell) will be the final and true tipping point we've been waiting for all these years.
I just can't see how that wont happen? HP has got to jump on board or lose market share. HP may get by another quarter or two without too much damage but any longer than that would be sheer business ignorance.
I'm looking forward to the second half of 2008! Happy holidays Snack. Jeff
Deserves a repost:
"Breakeven has been falsely promised for a long time. My anger at that is tempered by the knowledge that survival required hope. [bThe Truth which would have destroyed the company was also a way to make it a Truth in the future. Life is full of paradoxes and ethical choices. Is the kind thing to flunk the student so he can survive in the future? Is the ethical thing to lie now so I can make my shareholders wealthy in five years? Do I torture an enemy to provide safety for millions? Different people make different choices. That's why it's ethics and not absolutes."
If you're an absolutist then the above words make no sense. Thanks for your brilliant words. Jeff
You know the definition of assumption....
Mr. Rollins becomes CEO in July of 2004 and Wave strikes the deal of a lifetime in November 2005 under Mr. Rollins command. For all you and I know Mr. Dell came back because he was bored?
"If Wave and Dell is his doing then history will have better things to say about his leadership than I believe is current."
What?
Did he believe it when he said it? Leaders make errors? C'mon?! I Kantbelieve you wrote that?!
If Micheal Dell never gave up the CEO title then Wave wouldn't have the "get out of jail free card" they're holding today IMO. Wavoids should be sending Christmas cards to Kevin Rollins.
"When Peter reportedly suggested that NTT was the biggest deal in Wave history did he lie? Was he exaggerating? Did he believe it when he said it? Will NTT and the Japanese market eventually become a huge profit center? Was he simply wrong in what he believed. Leaders make errors!!! I suspect Michael Dell wishes that he had picked somebody else to take over as CEO."