Alberta Gas Producers **Big Opportunity**

All - I'm working on this idea this week. Next step is to pick the gas producers to buy.

This is a rare opportunity IMO as a dysfunctional <CAD 1.00/GJ Alberta Gas energy market has been fixed and....because of that dysfunctional market the last two years, storage levels are at near all-time lows going into winter so the Alberta Market is going to see some significant pricing spikes this winter...and....Alberta Gas producers are at bear market lows, hated, with tax-loss selling pressure to continue for the next month.

Gas is oversupplied in North America, but the Alberta Gas Index AECO has been in the absolute Shi**er the last two years as producers have been forced to sell many times well below $1.00/GJ due to changes in how storage injection rules applied when the Novagas system was down for maintenance. There was an oversupply during these periods and producers were price takers.

1 GJ = 1.05 MCF (rule of thumb for comparing to Henry Hub gas in MCF)

Alberta has had a dysfunctional market because of this, and the entire industry lobbied to the Canadian Energy Regulator to push through new regulation that allows for injection

NovaGas TSP Decision

This is what has happened since the decision.

Gas Market Bottom In

If you are interested in this trade you really need to read the blue-chip Alberta Gas producer Peyto's (PEY.TO) September, October and November monthly president reports to get a feel for the pain, market bottom from the TSP decision, and potential pricing upside this winter:

Read the market commentary in Sept, Oct, Nov Reports

Finally - as long as we are in November you can see the daily AECO gas prices here for October and November. AECO gas literally bottomed in early October when the Canadian Energy Regulator approved the TSP decision.

Daily AECO Prices

Alberta Gas is not going to the moon, but it appears that the gas market pain of the last two years is over.

I don't know where Alberta Gas producers will be in 12 months time, but I think they'll be higher in March and April 2020 than in December 2019 tax loss selling.

The US still needs Alberta Gas. Most of the Gas for the Puget Sound Metropolitan Region comes down from TC Energy's Foothills Pipeline from BC and Alberta. This is not going to change.

This is the NGTL system:

NGTL collection system

Siyata - Value1008

The venture is slated to bottom on December 23rd tax loss selling after Canadians spend the next month jettisoning their losers during years like 2019 like they always do.

There will be a bounce into January & February. How much? depends on commodities and stock markets.

On another note, Canadian Oil & Gas stocks are some of the most hated on the planet now and there should be some fantastic buy opportunities in the next month.

The Alberta Natural Gas index AECO has actually but in a "regulatory bottom" and it makes sense to buy some larger cap Alberta gas producers now. There has basically been a 'regulatory manipulated market" that has forced Canadian gas producers to sell below CAD 1.00/GJ for the last two years at certain times. Don't post a ton but follow me and I'll put something together on this on the Value Microcaps JE board later this week.

1 GJ = 1.05 MCF as rule of thumb.

Two circles are examples of what Venture did in first months of year out of tax loss selling in a bear market year.



This is JE board:

JE Board

SIM.V/SYATF

Arguably the best buy opportunity ever right now for Siyata? The selloff is purely driven by investors exiting the Venture Exchange over the year. Recent news going into Q3, Q3 and then last two news releases suggest 2020 will be a break out year.

I did add $10,000 more at $0.30 (venture) a few weeks ago. Wish I didn't buy so much at $0.50 earlier this year of course but that is markets.

Don't believe me? Why did Siyata sell off? I just added the black line below to my personal tracking chart of Siyata. The black line is the TSX Venture. Siyata has tracked it perfectly. One year chart.

F.V/FIGOF - I sold today on...

..+.04/10% bounce for a tiny gain. Rode it from $.40 up to $.60 and then back down. Oops.

Gold feels directionless through the end of the year and I looked into Fiore's presentation and they have guided for the lowest Q4-19 production in a year so when they report this there is a chance that investors move away from Fiore for a bit.

I like the story. Link back to my original post (NAV = $.70 for Pan mine). How they finance the neighbouring gold rock mine will be key. There will be a PP at some point and I after that is the time to own IMO.

See page 8 below for the low Q4-19 production. What if Q1-20 is the same? There could be a better buy-opp ahead.

Oct 19 Presentation

SGI.V/SUPGF now down to $0.48 as we speak

On LT 5 year guidance of 75k-85k ounces per year just from underground plutonic operations. Compared to AISC in 2019 their AISC estimates seem pretty lowballed.

Luck for me I sold SGI for a a small profit before going on vacation in early october as locked in profits on a few gold miners.

0.44 was the low for SGI in early 2019. Now that tax loss selling is here I would expect then to maybe even drop below that into high 0.30s?

Could be one of the stocks that hits a November low for tax loss selling becuase of downwards momentum.

I would buy in high 0.30's in November for a 6 month trade in 2020. 75k-85k is the base production and that doesnt factor in any feed they could mix from any open pit ore.

Sorry if you were holding Bob.....

CNE.TO + 0.36 since my post EOM !!!!

#marketmover ?

CNE.TO/CNNEF

Canacol continues to perform like a volatile O&G stock. I bought $10,000 more today at 4.32 (TSX) as historically, these technical patterns on Canacol really hold true and the stock simply sold off from its trip up to $5.00 (TSX) down to a new trendline that appears to have been established. Nothing has changed in the business, Canacol will likely just continue to be volatile.

Recall my post linked a couple posts back where I posted a 5 year chart of Canacol showing the recent trip up to $5.00 (TSX) broke a 3-4 year horizontal accumulation pattern.

I also expect Canacol to retake $5.00 by year end and continue to move up, albeit in an erratic fashion like it always has.

(Recent 4.32 purchase not on chart but you can see I've labelled my 2019 purchases on chart!)



This is my post from a few months back when Canacol skyrocketed out of the 3-4 year consolidation channel.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150270951

SIM.V/SYATF

Siyata spent 30 minutes of diligence here is what I found. I have a big position at CAD $0.50 and bit my tongue today and bought $10k more at CAD $0.30 on the venture. See the SA article below. Q3 should be really good, but unfortunately Siyata's practice is to report as close to the end of the 60 day TSXV quarterly reporting period as possible so we'll see Q3 reported closer to Nov 30 (Q3-18 was Nov 28).

From listening to Q2 Conference call again per Mark (CEO) from September 3rd (2/3 way through Q3):

- already have $3m of sales in Q3-19.

- Q3-19 sales will be higher than Q2-19

- Q3-19 will be higher than Q3-18

From this new Oct 15 seeking alpha article linked below:

The news releases point to at least $4.4 million in revenues for this quarter. Significantly higher than the $2.0 million reported in Q2 as well as the $3.15 reported in 2018 Q3. Higher margin 4G sales will be at least 80% of Q3 total revenue and closer to 100% in fiscal 2020

SA Article


Sounds like one of their best quarters in years coming up.

Maybe sell off related to investors slotting Siyata's business along with SONM as alluded to in SA article. SONM had issues with it's Qualcomm chips and tarriffs from trump-china trade war (China manufacturing). SONM is down 80% since their May 2019 IPO and recently announced they expect a GAAP Loss for 2019 of $15mm .
[
url]
https://www.sonimtech.com/sonim-technologies-provides-corporate-update/[/url][tag]Latest SONM corporate update[/tag]

SGI.V

Not great but emotionally speaking market just sold SGI back down to uptrend line staring in Mid-April after this quarter and I expect SGI to start ticking back up now.

CNE.TO finally breaks out of 4 year channel

Fast and furious. The channel was what was keeping canacol down. When it broke after such a long pattern it was going to be quick.

Hoping thus is a multi year hold now. Thing to follow is other gas exploration success in Colombia. If a lot of gas is discovered Canacol’s $5/MCF pricing won’t be sustainable. Canacol has pretty much been the only explorer. deliverd LNG to Colombia west coast won’t be a risk as price will also be high.

VLE.TO also sold

Two months ago down from huge position around $100k at one point but mist bought around these levels after the initial news and run.

Put it into gold miners and Canacol.

Still own quite a bit of Transatlantic but they have a few other things going on beside Banarli.

ASM.TO/ASM

I sold my Avino after quickly looking into their San Gonzolo vein ore which is high grade and was announced in most redent exploration PR from this week (not linked below) that San Gonzolo will run out of ore soon.

Avino has produced 2.8-3.0 AgEq ounces for last 5 years but it feelsmkike this will drop to low 2s once San Gonzolo closes so I sold.

see 600k AgEq ounces at 222 g/t silver produced from San Gonzolo in 2018

Couple Notes:

- sold my 20’000 shares of ORV.TO today on extreme +20% pop at 0.39. Cost 0.29. Hoping I can buy back in low .30s but want to own.

- looks like Midas MAX.TO has bottomed and is trailing sector hugely. Can run to $0.90 really quick. I own as know it will run and I could buy at bottom.

Gold Stock Idea - buy venture and non-GDXJ juniors

Potential arbitrage by buying 1) non-GDXJ TSX gold producers and 2) TSXV Venture gold producers. May be trailing miners in GDX and GdXJ that get brunt of capital into sector.

Gold and gold stocks up big, but every junior gold in the GDXJ has a chart that looks similar. The 'juniors' in the GDXJ are simply not that junior with most having Market Caps over $USD 500m.

GDXJ Consituents

(Note - you may have to click through Van Eck's investor screen to see)

Furthermore, the TSX Venture is in the shitter, so any gold stock still listed on the venture is feeling pain from that and may not have participated as much in the recent gold sector rally. TSXV is currently below the 2009 financial crisis low!



Here is a list of upcoming junior producers that are not in the GDXJ and/or listed on the venture I will be looking at:

These first three have assets and management team to be pushed to +$C 1Bn market cap companies in a gold bull:

- EQX.V Equinox Gold
- LMC.TO Leagold (not in GDXJ) i.e. Endeavour Mining 2.0
- LUG.TO (not in GDXJ) Lundin Gold. Bringing Fruta Del Norte Mine into production in next few months

These next producers are generally too small for GDXJ:

- ROXG.To (not in GDXJ) Roxgold. Huge free cash flow now, but low reserves
- ORV.TO (not in GDXJ) Orvana. Checkmate and I own.
- SAM.TO (not in GDXJ)
- MND.TO (not in GDXJ) Mandalay. I own and am underwater but not sure I would buy more here.
- SGI.V Superior Gold. Bobwin's Australia turn around pick. I own.
- AKG.TO Asanko. Has never recovered from getting trashed from short seller. Short Seller appears to be right!

There are a few more, but they look to be in the pain factory (ALO.TO Alio Gold, formerly Timmins Gold. Mine too low grade to be economic). I would probably put Asanko in this category too.

That is all I have. Names like MUX.TO, AR.TO, TGZ.TO, DPM.TO, WDO.TO, etc. that are on the smaller side are in GDXJ.

F.V/FIGOF here is my original thesis

Bought sometime in mid-18 and sat underwater for months and now back at cost. Let’s revisit my original thinking!

My research from Evernote

Likewise - thanks on SIM.V bob...

...I've got $C 50k betting Siyata can reach $C 100mm in sales in a few years.

Siyata sitting more or less around 3X sales now.

Even 2X sales on $C 100mm in revenue would be a $C 200mm market cap and that would be around a 4 bagger from here.

What I have bought in last two weeks.

I've posted in order of what I view are the juniors with a lot of chart upside still. all $ are CAD (on the TSX or TSXV)

ASM.V/ASM Avino Silver - bought today at $.70. Barely moved up yet. Tons of upside here! Could hit $1.00 in a month IMO.

MAX.TO - still hasn't even budged. If you look back at last couple years Midas can run +40% in two weeks so I would reccomend everyone to add some!

SAM.TO Starcore Int'l. They are the little mine that is still very high AISC. Bought at $.10 at start of 2019. at $0.11 now. Could double very quick.

RVG.V Revival Gold. Under the radar new developer with 2M I&I potentially oxide ounces in Idaho around former open pit, and drill plan underway targetting upgrade to 3M I&I ounces by end of 2019. One of cheapest explorers. Top pick of newsletter writer Nick Hodges. Cost is $0.50. Still at $0.50

SGI.V Superior Gold. Bobwin's pick. Lots of posts below. Cost is $0.70. Now at $0.75

GORO. Hoping I can hold for quite a while. Sold off becuase of the At The Market financing deal to complete new mine. Bottom looks to be in. Bought at $US 4.00 a few months ago and went underwater and added at $US 3.00 and $US 3.15.

AMM.TO Almaden Minerals. In Mexico, will be a mine one day. Cost was $0.73 now $0.87. Bought when it hadn't moved. Not surpised it has jumped w sector now.

CDE Couer Mining. Not a microcap but has huge leverage to silver upside as always. Looked quickly at other favorites for a rally FVI.TO Fortuna and EDR.TO Endeavour and they seemed to have balance sheet and operational issues recently.

Others I have been holding since the start of 2019, so didn't buy recently include:

F.V Fiore Gold. Cost was $0.40. Now finally at $0.47 after being underwater for most of hold period.

Others I have been holding and been underwater for about a year include:

USA.TO, MND.TO, GUY.TO

And finally - I've been underwater on ORV.TO for a year, but it has doubled in last couple months back to original cost but it looks like their turnaround is complete so I'm not selling yet...

Canadian Oil Stocks Priced for Disaster

This caught my attention this week as very astute investors thinks that Canadian oil stocks are one of the most hated investment sectors globally. When there are no more sellers left....

Paul Adreanola

Even Keith Shaefer (O&G bulliten newsletter Canada) is really throwing in the towel until the fall election. Sentiment is bad. This marks bottoms.

A lot of Canadian stocks specifically have fallen of a cliff recently and, if we are near at least a short term tradable bottom, you don't need to look any further from the go-to names.

I agree with Eric Nuttal below that three names that could bounce quick are Baytex (BTE.TO), Cresent Point (CPG.TO) and MEG Energy (MEG.TO). No need to consider any other names really.

Top Picks

CPG.TO is seen as the 'blue chip oil stock' by Canadians and MEG is a free cash flow machine for next few years and is still depressed down at CAD $4.00 because shareholders tuned down the Shell takeover in 2018 north of CAD $7.00/share.

MEG also sells WCS (Canadian heavy oil) which is in high demand globally with Maya trading higher than Brent and this phenomenon affecting North American too.

Another one to consider is Precision Drilling which is the 'blue chip driller' in Canada and sold off 50% in last 6 weeks when WTI dropped from US$66 to US$52 currently. Peter Imhof's top pick here:

Peter Imhof's Top Pick

My take on Conference Call

- They didn't announce Canopy committed extraction capacity, but it is not a stretch to assume they have filled out the "Phase 1" annual capacity of 200,000 kG/year in Fiscal 2021 (Apr 2020 to Mar 2021

Tilray 125,000 3 year commitment 20% year 1: 25k, 50k, 50k kg
Gr. Organic 230,000 3 year commitment 20% year 1: 46k, 92k, 92k kg

So at 142k kg/year in Fiscal 2021 before Canopy. Not a stretch to assume 58k kg are commited to Canopy in Fiscal 2021 bringing us to 200,000 kg/year Phase 2 capacity.

- Currently have permitted capacity of 30,000 kg, still need Health Canada to approve the facility to ramp up to 200,000 kg, though the investment is being made.

- sounds like it really is only CAD 7mm in investment to make for phase 2 so this will be non-dilutive with CAD $15mm in cash and now, easy access to debt with commited contracts.

- It's not hard to imagine EBITDA numbers much higher than in GMP's big report on Cannibis extractors...I won't say more here as the GMP reports says it all, and I'll bet we get an update from GMP by tomorrow as they had the first analyst to answer questions on the call today.

CAD 16mm of cash and 16mm of working capital at....

...Dec 18. Will be interesting to see cash burn they will report for March shortly. News this last two weeks amazing but they are going to need an equity raise to refabricate the Sherbrooke plant for Tilrwy and O. Dutchman I would imagine. We’ll get another big buy opp in H2-19 I am thinking.

SGI.V I’m in Bobwins

At CAD $0.70 to 0.71 today. Like the long mine history, strong bottom in stock, low market cap, hopeful turn around to sub US $1100 AISC if they can get stope grade up to just 3.0 g/t and most of all....put CAD $10k into stock.

AUD Gold Price breaking out to all time highs!

insert-text-here

I also added USD $5k more GORO as also looks like bottom in and I’ve been acutely aware since Jan Vancouver resource conference that GORO is a H2-19 story this year. Let me see if I can find my post from back in January

CNE.TO huge exploration well

Pipeline late ofmcourse as always but you have no reason not to buy with huge production increase imminent and three year consolidation between about 3.60 to 4.75. Any breakout of this channel will have legs.

http://www.canacolenergy.com/i/pdf/nr/2019-06-11-cne-nr-387gv7.pdf

SIM.V

They waited till 1day before the TSXV ye deadline of Apr 30. This is old news now so let’s see what happens to the US sales this year.

I note Bobwins has been paitently waiting for years for US sales though....

SIM.V

Traderfan - Keith Schaefer (O&G investments bulliten out of Canada eh) just put out a pump email to everyone on his free distribution list which could give a small pop tomorrow.

Traderfan - you may have seen this on your 8 screens though!!!!

Technically Siyata may have touched the bottom of the channel in place since last summer....for the last time!

RIO.V

LC rhanks. I saw that too. Real nice first “real” PR with any substance from new team.

GORO

Also like it here and been buying the last week. Makes a ton of sense as sold down for no reason.

SIM.V

3:45 in That video Motorola is showing the UV350 in their booth demonstrating push to talk technology. Not Siyata’s booth!

Hundreds of thousands of units appears written in stone here. Two Tier 1 carriers. Only question is - does Motorola buy them out??

REG.V PDAC Presentation

Not sure if this is on their website yet but this is linked from ceo.ca regulus board. You can see just the Regulus resources within the constrained pit. Total resource massive if CMC lands have grades like Regulus’.

PDAC

FYI - zinc at 2019 highs.

At 1.285 now. Prices going higher, inventories continue to drop.

Trevali been bottoming for all of 2019 so far. Worth a trade here IMO. At 0.37 now on TSX. TV.TO

Kitco

REG.V CEO.CA

Pretty active board over at CEO.CA. A lot of questions answered. No one picked up on my comment that total resource is even bigger than disclosed as doesn’t include CMC in-pit lands.

https://ceo.ca/reg

REG.V big resource Lone Clone...

...I read the PR twice and the 250 MT 8.8m Au-Eq oz / 4.1bn Cu-Eq lbs indicated (in-pit) resources appear to be only in the red and salmon regulus concessions with red lands in the middle of the 650m deep pit below. This is the centre and the deepest portion but surely then there at least another 100% - 200% tonnes in the margins of the pit so looking at a 500-750 MT pit with the 100% CMC claims?

This is big.

Is that what you see too Lone?

Anyone catch the conference call?

Nearly pulled an all nighter for work night before and call at 6am PST. Nope!

F.V Fiore Looking Good

Barely breakthing after crazy week of work. 2019 looking great for Fiore F.V. Also for GORO who is doubling production with no dilution.

Here is my original thesis on Fiore. My company blocked Evernote (original post) so I moved it over to an alternative note takeing app:

Fiore Thesis

Here is Fiore's YEar End results PR from yesterday

Results

0.6X NAV target at $CAD 0.70 SP is a double from here AND Fiore has replaced all the resources (not reserves but this is a low grade heap leach) they have mined since commercial production per the PR:

A drilling program aimed at extending the mine life at Pan encompassed 28,790 feet (over 8,800 m) of developmental and exploration drilling during the year. An updated resource estimate released subsequent to FY2018 (refer to news release dated December 3rd, 2018) showed almost complete replacement of M+I resources mined in the 19 months since declaring commercial production (which averaged approximately 12,500 ore tons mined per day), and a significant growth in Inferred resources even after allowing for mining depletion. Work on a new mineable reserve LOM plan and schedule is currently underway on the updated resource estimate. The updated mine plan, which is expected in calendar Q1 2019, will focus on exploiting the updated resources to extend the current mine life while attempting to reduce the strip ratio, particularly in the latter half of FY2019.

And their presentation:

Presentation

Checkmate: Minera Alamos

Yep - on my radar. Recall I went for coffee with Doug Ramshaw while the company was still Corex Gold a few years ago. Remember Darren. Will talk to them for sure.

Malcolm Shaw's 2019 Outlook (VLE, ATU, POE)

VLE.TO ATU.V and POE.V

I own all three. Bought POE.V recently when others did here on potential growth to 5000 boepd in Thailand is backstop in case Indonesia is (another? crazy wildcat?) fail.

2019 Outlook

Also - LMK Vancouver Resource Conf....

...is this Sunday. Let me know if there are any companies you think are worth talking to or have questions for. Don't PM me as I have a free IHub account and can't respond!!!

My annual attendance....

Exhibitors Link

Malcolm Shaw's 2019 Outlook.

He likes Pure Gold, Minera Alamos (acquired Corvus Gold the little Junior I wrote about 1.5 years ago. Santana heap leach project in Mexico from Charlie....the godfather of heap leach, EFR.TO for Uranium.

Hydra Capital

Notes from CC....

...typed on phone have asleep on West Coast time. $C 110mm doubling of revenue again in 2020 is my note as CEO conveniently mentioned this via a reference to what ‘many investors expect’. First retail shareholder was pretty upset as feels like CEO keeps boasting about huge upside in the future. This didn’t
Materialize in 2018 (revenue flat year over year).

- Middle East - $30mm in Fy19
Rev. Rc’d a delivery schedule. Last 6 months Mar-Sept is when deliveries will happen.

- 25mm of recurring revenue from US now w aquagiard. 1500 hospitals and clinics.

- Expect europe and latam sales in fy19 for first time

- Direct UK Sales Force working now

- Currently selling into latam. Expect chile, mexico to be big markets.

- Starting point is 55mm base revenue in fy19. Investors expect to double again in fy20 to 110mm.

- Ceo expects 20% ebitda margins going forward, similar to current levels.

- Expect to graduate up to TSX in 6 months. Nasdaq far away

Like the CEO’s statement. Very reassuring. I’ll post my loose notes after

SIM.v/SYATF Humour

Canada + Australia is a great combo! Our two countries seem to have an affinity for each other so this can only bode well for Siyata.

For how much Australia likes Canada check this out:

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2016/10/whistler-named-livable-city-australia/

Things are looking great for 2019:

- Canada sales growth eh
- Aussie sales growth oy
- New Zealand sales growth aye
- Israel sales growth
- Two huge launches in the US with separate Tier 1 carriers

and...

...if this wasn't on your radar, the TSXV has been in the Sh*tter for all of 2018 so this has definitely put pressure on Siyata in H1 leading to the July bottom in low $.30s. One good quarter here and market will figure out fundamentals are detached from the $C 50mm market cap today.

2 year chart of TSXV: