I can't reply to private messages. I only have the basic membership Sorry.
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1. They were buying before the well results were known.
2. Pacific Drilling was accepting shares in lieu of cash payment.
A footnote to that story is the fact that the Pacific Drilling drill ship has now departed for Tenerife.
PACIFIC SCIROCCO
I doubt there's much of a short position. Of course the data available to the average retail investor is woefully out of date, but what it does show is any covering was well underway before the well was spud.
HyperDynamics Corp.
One can certainly look up the intraday shorting, but that says nothing about whether any of it involved overnight (or longer) short positions being taken out. At the levels it's currently occurring, it's completely within the normal MM operating realm of filling orders by shorting and subsequently covering the same day at VWAP or lower.
http://otcshortreport.com/?index=HDYN&action=view" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >http://otcshortreport.com/?index=HDYN&action=view[tag]
HYPERDYNAMICS CORP[/tag]
I wouldn't rely much on short covering.
Amazing how facts can get in the way of hyperbola, isn't it?
I suspect there's a far greater likelihood of another class action initiative or private purchaser lawsuit than anything else at this point. Once again the last-minute selling of shares right before the declaration of a dry well and the arrival of a ship that specializes in pllugging abandoned wells as the offering closed, along with the subsequent PR release of a sniff of "hydrocarbons" is adding to an already long, checkered Hyperdynamics history.
"Fact of the matter is that the sample showed oil."
No, in fact the PR avoided the use of the word "oil." Instead, they opted for the word "hydrocarbons." Had they identified oil, don't you think they would have definitively stated "oil" in that PR?
The find could be on par with oil sands, only at a depth of 9500 feet of water, would represent zero prospect of commercialization. That's the problem: at this point, we don't know.
We do know that on Sept 5th, the Ocean Intervention III, a ship which provides specialty well services, including plugging wells, arrived on site ...
There are a lot of unanswered questions floating around amidst all the hype.
Bye-Bye drill ship. The Pacific Scirocco has charted a new course and set sail for Tenerife and along with it, the option wells. With it goes any immediate hopes of a sidetrack well to further investigate the 5m thick zone of undefined hydrocarbons. Any bets on when the offshore waters of Guinea next see a drill ship?
Of course the primary well target was a 75m thick zone, which held the potential for commercial viability if sufficient oil was found. Anyone know the prospect for commercial exploitation of a 5m thick find in this water depth (2895m/9498ft)? Ray Leonard stated in the July presentation that 50m net oil pay with good reservoir characteristics would represent a potential commercial success.
Things changed for Guinea with the 5m of undefined hydrocarbons (depending on what they turn out to be), but whomever drills the next well, it won't come cheap. They certainly won't benefit from any cost advantage of a drill ship already on site. I suspect the main benefactor of those 5m will be Guinea itself, who might receive higher bids in the upcoming offshore auction than they might otherwise have received.
PACIFIC SCIROCCO - IMO 9499905 - Details and current position
Stay tuned for the next installment of As The Drillbit (no longer) Churns ... it should be a fun-filled week ahead with the PSC set to expire in 5 days.
This changes things. Given the earlier discussion by Ray of the various targets and how the drill bit would intercept them, it's very possible this is one of the upper targets that they only intercepted the edge of. Time will tell, but things have turned from a duster to a potential find of unknown size.
Given that the drill PR stated very clearly that there was no presence of hydrocarbons, and given that an oil discovery was required in order to activate the appraisal period, in reality what exactly is there left to bet on?
Hyperdynamics Announces Fatala-1 Exploration Well Did Not Encounter Hydrocarbons
HOUSTON, Sept. 8, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Hyperdynamics Corporation (OTCQX: HDYN) ("Hyperdynamics" or the "Company"), announced that the Fatala-1 exploration well drilled offshore the Republic of Guinea in Northwest Africa has reached its total drilling depth and did not encounter hydrocarbons.
Fatala-1 was drilled in 2,897 meters of water and reached a total depth of 5,117 meters below sea level. The well encountered a 75-meter-thick Cenomanian sedimentary channel sequence, but it contained predominantly siltstone and clays with no hydrocarbon shows. The well will be plugged and abandoned.
"We are very disappointed at the results of Fatala-1, considering the extremely promising geophysical data on the prospect," said Ray Leonard, Hyperdynamics' President and Chief Executive Officer.
"Hyperdynamics and our 50% partner in the well, SAPETRO, currently hold rights to the Guinea concession through September 21, 2017. In the very near future, we will be studying the results of the well and evaluating any future options we may have for further activity in Guinea.
"Fatala-1 was the deepest-water well ever drilled offshore Africa, and I'm pleased to say that it was drilled safely and within expected budget," Leonard added.
BTW that cash and assets was as of March 31st. They also needed to raise $20M to drill the well at that point.
They do not own any property. That category was valued at $53,000 for "Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $2,104 and $2,075 ." Probably mostly office furniture and computers.
The majority of that asset value was the $4.7M lease value ("Unproved oil and gas properties excluded from amortization"). It was worth more as of March 31st than it will be today with less than 8 days remaining on the lease and a dry well on the record.
I merely included the next line in the 10-Q that keeps getting missed. I left out nothing. In fact if you re-read my post, the first quoted line from the 10-Q clearly discusses the $5.2M cash.
BTW that 5.2M cash was as of March 31st. They needed to raise $20M to drill the well. That 5.2M got used. Gone. Poof. Since then, in addition to the drilling cost, they ended up paying Pacific Drilling $100,000/day for standby time from May 21st to July 17th and an additional $225,000/day. HDYN was responsible for 50% of those costs. Those costs were in addition to the drilling budget.
For those hoping Pacific Drilling will somehow bail out HDYN, here's some additional news about their continued plight:
Pacific Drilling Announces Trading Suspension on the NYSE and Move to Over-the-Counter Market
Just as a reminder, bankruptcy continues to loom for them. No doubt the loss they are now facing on any HDYN shares they received in lieu of cash that they failed to sell prior to the announcement of drilling results only adds to their dilemma. Lucky for them, at least are still an actual going business concern with material assets.
Pacific Drilling considers bankruptcy after CEO departure
I answered this previously. The last 10-Q was very clear about the condition they were in:
"On March 31, 2017 we had $0.6 million in cash, and $2.2 million in accounts payable and accrued expense liabilities, all of which are current liabilities. Our net working capital will not be sufficient to meet our corporate needs and Concession related activities for the quarter ending June 30, 2017. "
Anyone who followed this stock knows they were supposed to spud the well in May. They had to delay multiple times due to their inability to raise sufficient cash to cover their portion of the total costs. They continued to operate on a shoestring budget right up to the end of drilling. To think anything of significance is left over is nothing but speculation. Speculation grounded in a complete denial of the ongoing financial dilemma they have been facing constantly over the past 6 months.
So, if I read your logic correctly, one has to ask why penny stocks and sub-penny stocks even exist.
Think about it for a minute. Yes companies facing bankruptcies can recover. Especially if they are still a going business concern in need of re-organization. As of now, HDY no longer is. All that's left is an empty shell. There's NOTHING LEFT to re-organize.
Sorry, I was an HDY investor for a period of time and know the story too well to be strung out like a junkie over meaningless comparisons. Some of what I've read lately is the equivalent of saying it's going to be worth as much as Apple some day because once upon a time Apple was worth less than a dollar.
As if drilling a duster (following up on the poor results from Sabu) wasn't enough, there's political dissension once again brewing in Guinea. Anyone who followed this company long term knows the implications that brings ...
Promised Guinea local elections delayed again
and bribery allegations are resurfacing their ugly head ... this time implicating Conde was involved ...
Audio recordings drag Guinea president into mine bribery scandal
as if that weren't enough, the US is now issuing Visa restrictions ... that should help set the tone for an American Company begging with hat in hand ...
US Issues Visa Restrictions to Eritrea, Guinea
Not to worry! They didn't swoop in at any point during the last 6 months of financial struggles (which would have allowed multiple wells to be drilled instead of just one with the clock completely run down), but an Angel Investor will parachute in and save the day! Yup. Any. Day. Now.
There's a big difference between the situations Kodak and American Airlines faced and Hyperdynamics. They still had a source of income. Although viability was a huge issue, they still had a product or service to sell. In short, they still had SOMETHING to negotiate with. HDY has nothing left.
HDYN has no assets or business prospects against which to raise capital or interest someone in a buyout of a portion of the business. The only thing they can do, with effectively no oil exploration lease left, is to reinvent themselves and go to the market hat-in-hand to raise venture capital. That may well happen as a sub-penny stock, just as it did when HDY was born out of RAM-Z. It ain't happening today or tomorrow. It ain't happening this week.
If it does happen, it's not happening until they axe the staff and settle their contracts (any idea what their payroll burn is?) and settle their office lease obligations (do you happen to know what those are?). Those alone are going to take more cash than they have on hand. With no future drilling prospect, just how exactly will they accomplish that?
There may well be an artificially manufactured bounce on the backs of the unwary. Personally, I'll continue to post the reality of the situation so the unwary who come to this board are at least warned about the situation this company is facing.
Ray Leonard, CEO of HDYN on the Fatala well: "This is our shot. It’s a really good shot, but this is our shot."
Those who have followed the company know when he said it and why. It was part of a question and answer session about the potential for additional wells IF Fatala was successful. Sadly, as we all know, Fatala was a duster.
Here's a larger snippet of that Q&A:
Unidentified Man: On the subsequent wells you're assuming that somebody will come in and buy your--or put up for investing in the wells, right? So, all the money would have--would be perspective to the success, right? There's no money to go forward after that, right?
Mr. Ray Leonard: At this point in time if you make a success in Fatala and you want to continue to drill further, we will need to raise the money for those wells. Yeah, that's correct. And we’ll have to move very quickly.
Unidentified Man: So, if it's not a success there is no money to do a second well?
Mr. Ray Leonard: No. And raising it would be a lot more difficult. No, this is our shot. I mean, I’m not holding back on that. This is our shot. It’s a really good shot, but this is our shot.
For those still not connecting the dots:
A) Fatala was a dry well. No hydrocarbons. No oil shows, no gas shows. Nothing. NO HYDROCARBONS.
B) The Exploration lease expires in 8 days.
C) To drill another well, first SAPetro would have to agree. Then HDYN would have to raise $20M+ to cover their 50% of the costs. Then the well would have to be spudded, all this in the course of 8 days.
I'm not posting for his sake. I'm posting as a warning for the unwary. The HDY story is pretty much over and done with the dry hole, the soon to be expired lease and a lack of capacity to raise more cash. There's been enough loss as it is, without anyone getting snagged by a pump and dump crowd posting grossly misleading old news in the hopes of flipping this for a few pennies.
The Production Sharing Contract expires in 8 days. The well was a duster. There is no oil production to share.
That would be an EX-PARTNER
Are you aware of when the partnership with DANA ended?
They also used to be partnered with Tullow. That ended too.
If anyone is wondering where the " hyperdynamics hype" is coming from, here is a board where you can see posts of some of those who bought in and even what price some of them paid.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Small-Time-Trading-28231/
Here's another
https://investorshub.advfn.com/georgie18s-House-of-Gain-31373
and another ...
investorshub.advfn.com/BOUNCE-BOING-2346/
Be careful out there ... the game is afoot.
You might want to read a little further into that 10-Q. This is from pg 7:
Status of our Business, Liquidity and Going Concern
We have no source of operating revenue and there is no assurance when we will, if ever.
On March 31, 2017 we had $0.6 million in cash, and $2.2 million in accounts payable and accrued expense liabilities, all of which are current liabilities. Our net working capital will not be sufficient to meet our corporate needs and Concession related activities for the quarter ending June 30,2017. We are currently pursuing several avenues to raise funds. We have no other material comitments other than ordinary operating costs and commitments relating to the PSC.
As of the date of filing, the Company's trade accounts payable and accured expenses exceeded its cash balances.
Yup, that's right. Every penny of those cash assets was owing and then some.
They were supposed to spud the Fatala well at the beginning of May. Care to guess why it got put off to the end of May? Then June? Then July? And finally August? Care to guess why they paid the drillship to stand by all that time? One word. Cash. It took that long to raise. Almost $6M in drillship standby fees were shelled out while they desperately attempted to raise sufficient money to pay for their 50% of the drilling cost. Btw those costs were in large part, paid in shares in lieu of cash. Why? Because Pacific Drilling didn't have much left to lose either. They too are staring a bankruptcy filing in the face.
Funny, huh? Some of us actually know the history of events only too well. Some of us even know how much they have to shell out to pay the employees and keep the office lights on.
investors.hyperdynamics.com/common/download/sec.cfm?companyid=HDY&fid=1104659-17-34705&CIK=937136
The only unanswered question related to the HDY(N) story at this point is whether Pacific Drilling will survive
A little more DD for those who jumped in without a clue ... all those shares PD accepted were little more than a wing and a prayer ...
Drillship operator Pacific Drilling warns of bankruptcy
IF the Fatala well had struck oil, an extension on the exploration lease would have been available and there were a number of other prospects awaiting the drill bit. Unfortunately, the Fatala PR stated very clearly that there were NO signs of hydrocarbons. None. Nada. Dust.
As anyone who was following this stock knows, it was everything the company could do to put together the funding to drill Fatala. As the CEO clearly stated in an question/answer session during a conference call back in the Spring, Fatala was the last chance.
The exploration lease expires in a matter of days. Any remaining cash will all get burnt up by rent, salaries and overhead obligations. Even if Ray were able to negotiate some kind of lease extension, there's little hope of raising funds for further deep-water exploration with an exploration lease where the best shot at finding oil turned out to be a duster. Especially for a company that just drilled a duster in an exploration environment where there is currently little appetite for deep water and ultra-deep water wells.
RIP Hyperdynamics.
Pacific Drilling agreed to take shares of HDYN in lieu of cash as partial payment for drilling. They )Pacific Drilling) are on the verge of bankruptcy.
Pay attention to the date of the event requiring the filing of the latest 13D (August 29th)
Here's their prior filings ...
It won't take too much reading to piece things together ...
Answers to your questions.
1. No.
2. No.
3. Yes.
There are posters on this board who have followed this stock for years. There's now a hoard of brand new posters. As in newly arrived today. Think twice about who you listen to.
They drilled a last chance well. It's dry. Not even oil shows. Dust. Nothing.
They have no other business interests. They spent the past several months selling private placements to fund the last chance well. They won't even be able to pay the light bill and rent for their office space in very short order.
The stock was a high risk high reward investment. Past tense. There was one shot at glory left in the life of the company. It's now a gamer stock for those who play and manipulate situations like this and for those who get sucked in until it all collapses. The only question left is who will be the final bag holders. Those who were invested in the high risk high reward drilling play are bailing. Those who are buying will either be the new bag holders, or in turn, manage to pump it to unsuspecting new bag holders.
If you REALLY want to buy, wait for the sub-penny prices.
All just my opinion of course, based on my knowledge and the history of this company since 2010.
Don't say nobody ever told you.
Hey Dutch, yes I've been watching, even though I haven't been posting. From my model, on production and Kinergy sales I had them pegged at 3-4 cents less in earnings than last Quarter. Of course the problem with last quarter (Q2) is it looked like the profits were enhanced by selling a considerable amount of carbon credits which they had amassed, so it was difficult to know how any sale of carbon credits would also affect things.
As for their statement:
“Net loss of $3.8 million for the third quarter of 2016 was impacted by over $11 million of extraordinary expenses, including higher beginning inventory valuation, lower margins in the Company’s ethanol trading business resulting from the intra-quarter drop in ethanol prices, significant repair expenses and non-cash mark-to-market adjustments related to open hedge positions."
"higher beginning inventory valuation"
On June 30th the terminal price bid/ask for ethanol in California was $1.78/$1.80. By August 2nd it was down to $1.52/$1.53. That could account for the statement about "higher beginning inventory valuation" which could have resulted in having to sell inventory at a lower cost than it cost to produce it. We don't know how much that might have amounted to.
"lower margins in the Company’s ethanol trading business"
Yes, I saw this part coming. The Kinergy margins appeared to be somewhere around 1-2 cents/gal lower for Q3. I doubt they lost money, but I doubt they made much. Again, the slide from June prices to early August likely hurt them.
We don't know what the "significant repair expenses" might have been or what cost is attached to them.
It's the last statement that caught my attention though. Me thinks they got caught in a bad hedge. Me thinks it might be more than they care to admit. Once the 10Q is available, it would be interesting to see what changed vs Q2 in that department. It will also be worth taking a look in any reduction/increase in the value of carbon credits as a predictor for possible profit enhancement in Q4.
As for Q4, so far on the production side, it's smoking for all three areas (California, Nebraska and Illinois). So far Kinergy is performing about the same as last quarter. Not currently holding, but if the price gets slammed in the coming days, I'll be a buyer based on Q4 performance to date.
This could be it: (updated)
Efforts by local firms to block oil exploration in six wells in Northern Kenya have failed.
It has emerged that the case, which had been filed by Interstate Petroleum Company, seeking to quash oil exploration permit for block 10BA, 10BB, 11A, 11B, 12A and 13T will now not proceed. The permit had been issued by the Energy ministry.
The Court of Appeal in its verdict noted the firm had filed a similar case, which had been dismissed by the High Court.
Intestate had filed a Judicial Review case on December 16, 2010 before Justice Martha Koome, claiming that the Energy Permanent Secretary used the information given to him to issue permits to other firms, thus denying them an opportunity to explore oil.
The court heard that Intestate found some substance, believed to be oil in the process of drilling water in Turkana. But the judge dismissed the case.
Another case was subsequently filed by Moses Kengara and Edward Onyancha, and this time the complaint was that the PS and the firms that had been given the permit had defrauded and expropriated Intestate’s secrets contained in the chemical analysis report founded on oil samples within the six blocks.
This time the High Court, on March 5, 2013, allowed the two to proceed with the case, which sparked an appeal filed by Africa Oil Turkana Ltd (previously Turkana Drilling Consortium Ltd), Africa Oil Corporation and Africa Oil Kenya BV (previously Lundin Kenya B.V).
In the appeal, Judges Festus Azangalala, Gatembu Kairu and Agnes Murgor ruled that filing another suit was an abuse of the court process.
The rest of the article can be found here
Firm loses bid to block oil exploration in six wells
That said, there's two things I really like going into Q3
1. There's a very significant value they can still tap into in the LCFS credits
2. There's a very significant increase in the value of pre-paid inventory (ie: corn)
I never gave the SA article much credence as they used generic mid-west crush margin values for their predictions.
LCFS credits were lower because they sold some. I think any guidance at this point for Q3 would be rather moot, things are just too volatile. Between the potential movement in the price of corn due to changes in the crop forecast and the volatility of oil, might as well throw darts lol.
So far I show Q3 to be coming in with close to the same as Q2 for ethanol & co-products. That's in large part based on excellent performance in the first 2 weeks of July.
Hey Dutch I listened to the call. Nothing unexpected came out, with the exception that there was a draw down on LCFS credits to $13.xx M
The one thing of note in the numbers was the significant increase in prepaid inventory.
I've been quietly working on adjusting my prediction model to reflect the post-merger addition of the Illinois and Nebraska plants. I've remained rather quiet due to the need to try to establish some reliable baselines.
Based on production of 112.9M gals (averaged number for the previous 2 quarters) I had values ranging from $3.76M to $6.05M.
Based on full production, I had values for this quarter ranging from $4.27M to $6.87M. Of course those values do not reflect changes in prepaid inventory, increases/decreases in interest payments, etc. as those can't be known. Nor do they take any Fair Value Adjustments into account. In other words, the number is essentially an estimate for the Net Income (Loss) attributed to Pacific Ethanol before adjustments are made. That actual value was reported as $ 5.086M so I seem to be relatively on track with the mid-range value generated by the model. Another quarter will either confirm or invalidate that.
I also now have enough data on corn costs VS the USDA reported weekly values for Nebraska and Illinois plants to do some fine tuning to my model. Should be interesting to see how that turns out, but in an case it should prove a lot more reliable than just using industry-wide crush margin values to predict earnings.
Prepaid inventory increased by $4.311M. That's almost as much as net earnings. Pretty significant.
Kenya eyes crude exports in 2017 via trucks and railway
Link to original story
Posted Friday, February 19 2016 at 00:00
In Summary
The Energy ministry has offered RVR the contract to move the oil over a distance of more than 800km, from Eldoret to the Kipevu-based Kenya Petroleum Refineries (KPR) from as early as February next year.
Kenya appears to be keen on sidestepping the long process of constructing a joint crude oil refinery under discussion with Rwanda, South Sudan and Uganda.
Kenya is considering moving its crude oil to Mombasa by road and railway as President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration races to hit export markets before the General Election set for August next year.
The Energy ministry has offered Rift Valley Railways (RVR) the contract to move the oil over a distance of more than 800km, from Eldoret to the Kipevu-based Kenya Petroleum Refineries (KPR) from as early as February next year.
By choosing trucks and train, Mr Kenyatta’s administration appears determined to sidestep bureaucracy involved in constructing a joint pipeline with Uganda in an effort to beat its tight timelines.
“We are quite ambitious but we know we will be able to pull this off in the next 12-16-month window,” said the head of Presidential Delivery Unit Nzioka Waita.
“And as we speak, work has been done to improve the road network from Lokichar to Lodwar and from Lodwar to Kapenguria to increase the shoulder size to allow trucks which carry crude oil to convey it to Kitale and subsequently to Eldoret,” Mr Nzioka said in a presentation made during the Governors’ Summit last week.
The upgrade of the 213km- road from Lokichar to Kitale has been top of the government’s agenda as it looks to facilitate the quick transport of crude to an export terminal in Mombasa.
Kenyan officials also appear to be keen on sidestepping the long process of constructing a joint crude oil refinery under discussion with Rwanda, South Sudan and Uganda.
The joint projects were supposed to be built in public-private partnership model.
South Sudan is embroiled in civil strife since 2013 while Uganda has in recent months been preoccupied with political campaigns that culminated into Thursday’s election.
Uganda, which aims to start crude production by 2018, recently signed an agreement with Tanzania to explore the possibility of building a crude oil pipeline between the two countries.
Although Uganda had agreed to the Kenyan route, it said Nairobi had to guarantee security for the pipeline, along with financing and cheaper fees than alternatives.
Settling for a route through Tanzania could slow some projects in Kenya, which are planned to run alongside the pipeline on the land corridor in the North of the country to Lamu, where Kenya wants to build a new port to serve the region.
“We are now trying to refurbish Kipevu plant– which has only been bringing petroleum in – to take petroleum out,” said Mr Nzioka.
“At the Kipevu plant, they’ll do what they call first line refinery and then take that into the export market.”
I guess it all depends on how one defines success
"But then I realized that I've seen the name of one of their directors before, William Hayden. "
I went and read the profile you suggested. I looked at the companies he serves with as a board member. Here's the 5 year charts of the companies he's involved with:
William Hayden has been a director (of Ivanhoe Mines) since March 2007. To me, this first one is importants. After all, as you stated, he was a key player in what you describe as an amazing finance deal. So far, the stock price hasn't reflected your amazement. In the past 3 days since it's announcement, the stock essentially closed at $0.63, $0.61 and $0.62.
China Polymetallic Mining Ltd. (since November 2011)
Sunward Resources Ltd. (since September 2010) actually, Sunward Resources was taken over and operates as a subsiduary of Nova Copper. As his resume shows him as still active, the only way to evaluate Sunward appears to be through Nova. Here's their chart (I've used the US listing, a Canadian one is also available)
Condoto Platinum NL (since February 2011) chart taken from the ASX
Globe Metals and Mining Ltd. (since November 2009)
Just a heads up for HDY shareholders
I hope people don't have large share blocks sitting in margin accounts. Nothing stopping them from having a less than scrupulous player short sell them a substantial block of shares at the last possible moment into order to give them voting power if that is the case. If your shares are lent out, regardless of whether you are aware of it or not, you lose your vote. It transfers to the purchaser of the shorted shares.
What happens to the voting rights on shares when the shares are used in a short sale transaction?
By Investopedia Staff
The registered owner of the security, known as the holder of record, is the investor who retains voting rights. This means the holder of record is entitled to vote on any corporate action that is decided upon by shareholders. When it comes to short sales, the problem that arises is determining who is the holder of record on the shares being shorted.
To understand the flow of voting rights, it is important to first understand the short sale transaction itself. Shares that are available to be shorted come from three sources: the brokerage firm's inventory, another customer's account, or another brokerage firm. The only shares that can be taken from other customer accounts are those from margin accounts. When opening margin accounts, investors enter an agreement with the brokerage firm that their shares can be loaned out, but they still maintain their position in the security.
The short sale transaction starts with the investor inputting an order to short the shares by calling his or her broker or entering the trade online. The brokerage firm then finds the shares from one of the aforementioned three sources and sells the shares in the market; the proceeds are transferred to the account of the investor going short. The position is then closed out when the investor repurchases the equivalent amount of shares and they are returned to the brokerage firm.
To understand who is the holder of record, and thus who retains the voting rights, you just need to follow the shares. Initially, the shares are held by one of the three sources. Whichever source initially held the shares was also the holder of record. When the shares were used in the short sale transaction, the initial source lost its voting rights as it was no longer the holder of record. Even the margin account customer who holds the shares long will lose his or her voting rights in this situation - this is part of the margin account agreement.
The shares are then sold in the market, and the investor who purchases these shares becomes the holder of record for these shares, thus controlling the voting rights. The investor going short does not get the voting rights. When this investor closes his or her short position, the shares are returned to the brokerage firm, and the voting rights return to the initial owner whose shares were used in the short sale.
InspireMD Announces Positive Twelve Month Follow-Up CARENET Trial Data at VEITH Symposium 2015
http://www.inspiremd.com/en/press-center/inspiremd-announces-positive-twelve-month-follow-up-carenet-trial-data-at-veith-symposium-2015/
EDIT: Sorry I mis-stated what the 3rd column represents in my previous post. It's converted to reflect the difference between corn and milo in cost per gallon, not cost per bushel. It assumes that in both cases, 2.8 gallons of ethanol are produced per bushel of grain, whether it's corn or milo. It DOES NOT reflect any credits available for the use of milo over corn.
Hey Dutch I'm still around, although not following as closely as in the past. I've had some problems keeping tabs on margins of late, in part because I took a couple trips during Q3 and there are big gaps in some of my data (mostly the Cal terminal prices), and in part because Progressive Fuels has been sporadic with their daily reports of late. Because of those gaps I haven't posted anything, as the averages could be skewed by the gaps in data.
I think one reason for the performance of late is because the upcoming Q3 earnings will be the first to reflect the merger, and it's hard to gauge what to expect. We have no financial on their performance pre-merger, so no way of telling whether the impact in the current environment will be negative or positive.
As for the PEIX part of the equation, I expect their Q3 ethanol production margins to be considerably poorer than it was during Q2. The Kinergy margins look to be lower as well (although I suspect still profitable). As for the Q4, the average totals are tracking close to the Q2 values.
I would note that there's been one very interesting development in relation to Nebraska, and that is the reported price of sorghum (milo) in recent months. Specifically, I've been tracking the price of corn and sorghum at the nearest elevator to the Aurora plants (Grand Island), which is located 21 miles away. It's been tracking very close to (and even lower than) the price of corn ever since around the middle of July. I don't know whether they've been able to take advantage of those prices, nor whether the Aurora plants are capable of switching to milo instead of corn, but it would be a very interesting question to ask at the upcoming CC. It could also lead to a nice surprise if they are able to take advantage.
To give you an idea, below are the daily values. The 1st column is milo(reported as price/cwt and converted to bushels on a weekly basis). Alongside of it is the price of corn (reported as price/bushel). The third column compares the weekly average milo price to that of corn. I realize the data might be a little difficult to distinguish, but it's the last column that tells the story. I've bolded those numbers and highlighted them in red when the cost of milo works out to actually be less than corn.
7/1/15 8.090 3.8900
7/2/15 7.480 3.9000
7/3/15
Week 27 4.365 3.825 0.193
7/6/15 7.450 3.8800
7/7/15 7.380 3.8400
7/8/15 7.410 3.8600
7/9/15 7.480 3.8500
7/10/15 7.410 3.8600
Week 28 4.158 3.858 0.107
7/13/15 7.520 4.0700
7/14/15 7.110 3.9400
7/15/15 7.140 3.9600
7/16/15 7.140 3.9600
7/17/15 6.960 3.8600
Week 29 4.017 3.958 0.021
7/20/15 6.700 3.7100
7/21/15 6.730 3.7300
7/22/15 6.660 3.6900
7/23/15 6.660 3.6900
7/24/15 6.480 3.5900
Week 30 3.721 3.682 0.014
7/27/15 6.130 3.3900
7/28/15 6.160 3.4250
7/29/15 6.040 3.3800
7/30/15 6.130 3.4150
7/31/15 6.090 3.3950
Week 31 3.421 3.401 0.007
8/3/15 6.000 3.3700
8/4/15 6.050 3.4000
8/5/15 6.130 3.4400
8/6/15 6.070 3.4250
8/7/15 6.130 3.4550
Week 32 3.402 3.418 -0.006
8/10/15 6.430 3.6250
8/11/15 6.200 3.4800
8/12/15 5.840 3.2800
8/13/15 5.960 3.3500
8/14/15 5.960 3.3500
Week 33 3.403 3.417 -0.005
8/17/15 5.950 3.3400
8/18/15 5.460 3.3700
8/19/15 5.480 3.3800
8/20/15 5.550 3.4200
8/21/15 5.630 3.3600
Week 34 3.143 3.374 -0.082
8/24/15 5.700 3.4000
8/25/15 5.640 3.3700
8/26/15 5.570 3.3300
8/27/15 5.610 3.3500
8/28/15 5.590 3.3400
Week 35 3.148 3.358 -0.075
8/31/15 5.610 3.3500
9/1/15 5.735 3.3550
9/2/15 5.860 3.3600
9/3/15 5.750 3.3000
9/4/15 5.770 3.3100
Week 36 3.217 3.335 -0.042
9/7/15
9/8/15 5.860 3.3600
9/9/15 5.880 3.3700
9/10/15 5.960 3.4200
9/11/15 6.200 3.5500
Week 37 3.345 3.425 -0.028
9/14/15 6.320 3.6200
9/15/15 6.270 3.5900
9/16/15 6.180 3.5400
9/17/15 6.070 3.4800
9/18/15 6.020 3.4500
Week 38 3.456 3.536 -0.029
9/21/15 6.160 3.5300
9/22/15 6.090 3.5600
9/23/15 6.130 3.5800
9/24/15 6.110 3.5700
9/25/15 6.230 3.6400
Week 39 3.440 3.576 -0.049
9/28/15 6.200 3.6200
9/29/15 6.230 3.6400
9/30/15 6.210 3.6300
10/1/15 6.230 3.6400
10/2/15 6.230 3.6400
Week 40 2.615 3.634 -0.054
10/5/15 6.320 3.6700
10/6/15 6.390 3.7100
10/7/15 6.360 3.6900
10/8/15 6.270 3.6400
10/9/15 6.130 3.5600
Week 41 3.524 3.654 -0.046
10/12/15 6.145 3.5700
10/13/15 6.160 3.5800
10/14/15 6.050 3.5200
10/15/15 6.000 3.4900
10/16/15 6.020 3.4400
Week 42 3.401 3.520 -0.042
10/19/15 5.930 3.4500
10/20/15 5.930 3.4800
10/21/15 6.000 3.5200
10/22/15 5.950 3.4900
10/23/15 5.980 3.5100
Week 43 3.336 3.490 -0.055
Here is a description of the road trip from Nairobi to Lokichar. This is the road they would have to use:
NAIROBI TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE TURKANA BY ROAD
That only gets them to Nairobi.
Add to that the fact that truck-jackings are common, and an oil tanker makes for a juicy target. We're talking a country where truck-jackings happen in broad daylight in the Capital, let alone on dirt roads in the middle of nowhere.
Another complication might have to do with the production lease terms. It may well be time-limited (once they start production, they have x-number of years on the production lease). Would you want to start that clock running on production capacity limited by restrictions on trucking that is subject to unreliable roads and everything that goes with it? Or would you want to wait until the pipeline is available?
I'm sure that Tullow and AOI have given the possibility thorough consideration, and dismissed it for good reason.
New slide deck
October 2015 Presentation