Hey Dutch I'm still around, although not following as closely as in the past. I've had some problems keeping tabs on margins of late, in part because I took a couple trips during Q3 and there are big gaps in some of my data (mostly the Cal terminal prices), and in part because Progressive Fuels has been sporadic with their daily reports of late. Because of those gaps I haven't posted anything, as the averages could be skewed by the gaps in data.
I think one reason for the performance of late is because the upcoming Q3 earnings will be the first to reflect the merger, and it's hard to gauge what to expect. We have no financial on their performance pre-merger, so no way of telling whether the impact in the current environment will be negative or positive.
As for the PEIX part of the equation, I expect their Q3 ethanol production margins to be considerably poorer than it was during Q2. The Kinergy margins look to be lower as well (although I suspect still profitable). As for the Q4, the average totals are tracking close to the Q2 values.
I would note that there's been one very interesting development in relation to Nebraska, and that is the reported price of sorghum (milo) in recent months. Specifically, I've been tracking the price of corn and sorghum at the nearest elevator to the Aurora plants (Grand Island), which is located 21 miles away. It's been tracking very close to (and even lower than) the price of corn ever since around the middle of July. I don't know whether they've been able to take advantage of those prices, nor whether the Aurora plants are capable of switching to milo instead of corn, but it would be a very interesting question to ask at the upcoming CC. It could also lead to a nice surprise if they are able to take advantage.
To give you an idea, below are the daily values. The 1st column is milo(reported as price/cwt and converted to bushels on a weekly basis). Alongside of it is the price of corn (reported as price/bushel). The third column compares the weekly average milo price to that of corn. I realize the data might be a little difficult to distinguish, but it's the last column that tells the story. I've bolded those numbers and highlighted them in red when the cost of milo works out to actually be less than corn.
7/1/15 8.090 3.8900
7/2/15 7.480 3.9000
7/3/15
Week 27 4.365 3.825 0.193
7/6/15 7.450 3.8800
7/7/15 7.380 3.8400
7/8/15 7.410 3.8600
7/9/15 7.480 3.8500
7/10/15 7.410 3.8600
Week 28 4.158 3.858 0.107
7/13/15 7.520 4.0700
7/14/15 7.110 3.9400
7/15/15 7.140 3.9600
7/16/15 7.140 3.9600
7/17/15 6.960 3.8600
Week 29 4.017 3.958 0.021
7/20/15 6.700 3.7100
7/21/15 6.730 3.7300
7/22/15 6.660 3.6900
7/23/15 6.660 3.6900
7/24/15 6.480 3.5900
Week 30 3.721 3.682 0.014
7/27/15 6.130 3.3900
7/28/15 6.160 3.4250
7/29/15 6.040 3.3800
7/30/15 6.130 3.4150
7/31/15 6.090 3.3950
Week 31 3.421 3.401 0.007
8/3/15 6.000 3.3700
8/4/15 6.050 3.4000
8/5/15 6.130 3.4400
8/6/15 6.070 3.4250
8/7/15 6.130 3.4550
Week 32 3.402 3.418 -0.006
8/10/15 6.430 3.6250
8/11/15 6.200 3.4800
8/12/15 5.840 3.2800
8/13/15 5.960 3.3500
8/14/15 5.960 3.3500
Week 33 3.403 3.417 -0.005
8/17/15 5.950 3.3400
8/18/15 5.460 3.3700
8/19/15 5.480 3.3800
8/20/15 5.550 3.4200
8/21/15 5.630 3.3600
Week 34 3.143 3.374 -0.082
8/24/15 5.700 3.4000
8/25/15 5.640 3.3700
8/26/15 5.570 3.3300
8/27/15 5.610 3.3500
8/28/15 5.590 3.3400
Week 35 3.148 3.358 -0.075
8/31/15 5.610 3.3500
9/1/15 5.735 3.3550
9/2/15 5.860 3.3600
9/3/15 5.750 3.3000
9/4/15 5.770 3.3100
Week 36 3.217 3.335 -0.042
9/7/15
9/8/15 5.860 3.3600
9/9/15 5.880 3.3700
9/10/15 5.960 3.4200
9/11/15 6.200 3.5500
Week 37 3.345 3.425 -0.028
9/14/15 6.320 3.6200
9/15/15 6.270 3.5900
9/16/15 6.180 3.5400
9/17/15 6.070 3.4800
9/18/15 6.020 3.4500
Week 38 3.456 3.536 -0.029
9/21/15 6.160 3.5300
9/22/15 6.090 3.5600
9/23/15 6.130 3.5800
9/24/15 6.110 3.5700
9/25/15 6.230 3.6400
Week 39 3.440 3.576 -0.049
9/28/15 6.200 3.6200
9/29/15 6.230 3.6400
9/30/15 6.210 3.6300
10/1/15 6.230 3.6400
10/2/15 6.230 3.6400
Week 40 2.615 3.634 -0.054
10/5/15 6.320 3.6700
10/6/15 6.390 3.7100
10/7/15 6.360 3.6900
10/8/15 6.270 3.6400
10/9/15 6.130 3.5600
Week 41 3.524 3.654 -0.046
10/12/15 6.145 3.5700
10/13/15 6.160 3.5800
10/14/15 6.050 3.5200
10/15/15 6.000 3.4900
10/16/15 6.020 3.4400
Week 42 3.401 3.520 -0.042
10/19/15 5.930 3.4500
10/20/15 5.930 3.4800
10/21/15 6.000 3.5200
10/22/15 5.950 3.4900
10/23/15 5.980 3.5100
Week 43 3.336 3.490 -0.055
