Hey Dutch I listened to the call. Nothing unexpected came out, with the exception that there was a draw down on LCFS credits to $13.xx M
The one thing of note in the numbers was the significant increase in prepaid inventory.
I've been quietly working on adjusting my prediction model to reflect the post-merger addition of the Illinois and Nebraska plants. I've remained rather quiet due to the need to try to establish some reliable baselines.
Based on production of 112.9M gals (averaged number for the previous 2 quarters) I had values ranging from $3.76M to $6.05M.
Based on full production, I had values for this quarter ranging from $4.27M to $6.87M. Of course those values do not reflect changes in prepaid inventory, increases/decreases in interest payments, etc. as those can't be known. Nor do they take any Fair Value Adjustments into account. In other words, the number is essentially an estimate for the Net Income (Loss) attributed to Pacific Ethanol before adjustments are made. That actual value was reported as $ 5.086M so I seem to be relatively on track with the mid-range value generated by the model. Another quarter will either confirm or invalidate that.
I also now have enough data on corn costs VS the USDA reported weekly values for Nebraska and Illinois plants to do some fine tuning to my model. Should be interesting to see how that turns out, but in an case it should prove a lot more reliable than just using industry-wide crush margin values to predict earnings.
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