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barge ~ I don't do giddy....
Not the way I roll.
Regards,
Tampa123
To all,
I have read all of the posts over the last couple of days, and admittedly, I am somewhat surprised over the hesitancy of some. I recognize that there are optimists, pessimists and realists on this board ~ and all have their own, different ways of looking at certain events. I often consider myself to be a realist, and as such, have had views that differ from others on this board.
But as a realist, I also believe that I can recognize, and say that I recognize something of significance when I see it. So, while none of us know how much revenue the Olympic/NBC/Microsoft relationship will truely yield in the end, we should all be able to easily recognize the tremendous value and significance of this announcement.
First of all ~ there will be new visitors to WXP's site just for this event ~ how many? Well, a lot more than have visited previously.
Second ~ imagine if you will that should NBC and/or Microsoft do even a little bit of national advertising around this (TV-ads, Newspaper, Radio, etc.) the exposure itself is going to be invaluable.
Third ~ should many decide to visit the site, due in part to the advertising that was done ~ I feel this would be in both NBC's and Microsoft's best interests to do, then the potential for near-term, and better still, next-time revenues has a huge potential.
Lastly ~ All we've ever wanted was for Wave to be openly named as a player in their respective industries. The stealth approach never worked for many of us. Well ~ Guess what? WXP is no longer in stealth mode after this. It's either going to move forward successfully, or fail miserably. However, the difference this time is that neither will occur in a vacuum. They will have NBC and Microsoft succeeding or failing right along with them.
This time, my bets are on WXP to succeed ~ and succeed at a level never before seen (but always hoped for) by Wave's investors. Their opportunity is certainly there. Yes. they still have to execute. And Yes ~ as business people, they still have to know how to take advantage of this opportunity.
But this time, I'd have to say that if you can find something wrong with this news, then you're neither a realist or an optimist ~ your as pessimistic as it gets!
For my money, this WXP announcement is equivalent to Wachovia, the Federal Government or American Express announcing that it is rolling out Wave's enterprise upgrade solution across the board. It's new. It's innovative. It's Cutting-Edge. And WXP is one of the players publicly announced in the same company as a major Broadcasting network, and the largest Software provider in the world.
It doesn't get any better than that people. WAKE UP and feel a bit of excitement for a change. I am.
T123
thanks internet ~ that was my understanding too.
rachelelise ~ while I don't normally look to protect Steven from certain criticisms, I do not believe that Steven said anything at the SHM regarding Wavexpress being sold. I do recall from those who reported that Wavexpress needed to be more accurately valued by the market, however heard nothing from anyone in Wave regarding a sale of Wavexpress.
This is where the speculations submitted by those who attend can sometimes be damaging to Steven and Wave, even in the absence of malice. The over-exhuberant who look for winks, nods, body-language and wording extrapolation from every sentence or gesture pointed in their direction does not help ~ sometimes it hurts.
We should all be more careful in the future to point to the facts, and not the fictions that sometimes grow to epic proportions on this board following a SHM.
Microsoft, NBC Join for Olympics Coverage Online
http://mashable.com/2008/01/06/microsoft-silverlight-nbc-olympic-coverage/
Today is the day for what?
Anything is better than the current revenue stream
Armp ~ If Wavexpress sells for $50 million we should all be dancing in the streets for joy. It's earned nothing! In any sale, if you ignore the multiple for a second (i.e. 3x, 5x, 10x, 20x) you still have to multiply the multiple times something that is revenue related.
what does Wave have to use as the other multiplier?
$50 million would be fantastic. My guesss would be closer to $5M to $12M. Reality sucks
mark1 - very nice of you to say, but unfortunately I was called to Rockville Maryland last minute for another meeting. We will have to rely on the impressions of others.
Regards,
T123
Smithereens ~ they are competitors to some extent too. Don't forget that. HP never makes someone else look better than them. They have significant;y underestimated Wave's capbilities on purpose, as it helps build a better case for why their customers need them. They may have even overstated some of their own capabilities too. IT is an HP paper.
This is what Wave is up against quite frankly ~ confusion and F.U.D.
The more uncertainty and FUD, the more apt customers are to go with the big Vendor ~ because they don't lose their jobs sticking their neck out on HP ~ Wave is a different story. That's why they needed Dell ~ but even Dell doesn't have the Managed Operations pull of an HP or IBM ~ another hurdle. Therefore, they don't have the natural product pull that an HP or IBM could use.
jazz2800 ~ Nothing more than the usual pre-ASM anticipation of significant news coming out. Expectations have been mostly higher than Wave's actual perfomance in this area, but it occurs every year anyway.
We'll see.
If it turns out that there is no more news of significance to come out by next week, then following the SHM you will also see the usual defense or rationalization of what did occur versus those who simply say, 'nothing new' and get beaten up on this board as being a pessimist (at best) or a basher in worst case.
The optimists will find several positives from the SHM, as many drink as much Kool-aid as they can ~ even out to dinner afterwards. They can't get enough.
The realist will see the state of their INVESTMENT for what it is, and frame the situation under a somewhat impatient, often cold-hearted assessment umbrella.
The true bashers on the board will be what they are, and will either mysteriously disappear for a while if there happens to actually be great news (should see a short-squeeze too if this occurs), or they will sieze the moment to delve out all of the "I told you so(s)" and take some pleasure in telling some on this board how they continue to be wrong.
We've all been around a long time ~ so no surprises as to how the board will react. The only surprises is if Wave actually accomplishes something positive that:
a. No one knew about
b Has a better than average potential for creating significant revenues
Balls in Wave's court right now. However, I do admit to the SHM being a nice diversion on this board over normal day-to-day
I would have to agree with Snackman here. I don't believe today's news is the reason for the sudden up-tick.
We'll see
internet - thanks
Interesting to all ~ thought I'd share the kind of DD I can defend, instead of speculate on.
For those of you already know some of my past business experiences,you also know that I am now selling in the Enterprise SW space. Therefore, I deal with activities within planning, IT-infrastructure management, and security all of the time.
Well ~ I am now seeing the beginnings (in healthcare, and financial industries specifically) of the kinds of security we all want to see (swapping out old computers for new trusted computers with bio readers, network upgraqdes, etc.) beginning to come to the forefront of people's priority lists.
In my book that puts things at 2-4 quarters before we hear about them as more of a commonplace event.
ootonomy ~ exactly! Which is why it baffles me that the ROI has not been easily justified by Wave to everyone they speak to. In my SW sales experience, if you can justify the proper ROI in a hot-topic area, you'll find plenty of buyers IMO.
Baffling to say the least.
I have found time to attend the SHM ~ as I will be in NYC for the next 2-weeks. Can someone please provide the specifics.
Weby ~ Hope to see you there.
Tampa123
go-kitesurf - obviously the data was misused in their own building, by the person who unencrypted (decrypted ??) it, and then allowed it to be stolen
Sanckman ~ I have. No response.
He must not like me.
To all ~ There is no denying the fact that we all heard Steven say (paraphrashing) that he had a steady arsenal of PR to help boost the stock back over $1. He also said that he had no control over the share price, however, and we'd all agree that's true.
But again, under the guise of credibility, where is this steady stream of PR, and what must be his definition? I have seen some financial reporting, and the traditional "we are demonstrating with, or at" PRs, but nothing more.
How can Steven (CEO) make such a statement like that, and then go weeks with nothing to PR about?
Regardless of what any of us has to say on many subjects, I just don't get the locig behind this obvious untruth.
T123
helpfulbacteria ~ that is true. Wave's been a champion of trusted computing ~ but HP has as well. And I believe that HP is in reverse merger situation with EDS ~ who along with NSA has an establishe federal market relationship, and usually helps to decide what gets into Fed.
With HP / EDS reverse merger I can see many different scenarios unfolding ~ some good for Wave and some not so good.
To your point TPM deployment will occur under all scenarios, but won't guarantee Wave's success
I will say this though ...
I was encouraged by the last conference call, and felt (finally) that SOME progress, by my definition (not Steven's) had finally been made.
Therefore, I am not as cynical today as I was prior to the call.
Not that anyone needs to care what I think.
Blue Fin ~ Perhaps you're right about the Steven thing. However, I believe a message from the investors needs to be sent that complacency, and never meeting stated expectations is also getting old, and needs to stop once and for all.
Therefore, I would propose that we send that message by way of voting off the chairman ~ who is allowing this to continue. That would be a good 1st shot compromise.
T123
kiwitaxi ~ I do ~ I would guess north of $1
This is simply a wait and see stock IMO
There are no indicators that I see that Wave is taking advantage of its opportunities effectively. There are some indications that they are not doing that as prospects continue to move to the right ~ a compelling value prop doesn't experience that phenomenon.
Nothing very positive ~ nothing very negative.
All these years ~ and still no prdictable clue.
Not bashing ~ but certainly not praising here
Yes but if you (Wave) are too small to affect large scale adoption, then how do you expect to inform the market that some large competitor entering your space doesn't have a whole solution?
You could be out of business before the prospects figure out you're right ~ How do you avoid that?
Still pushing Intel performance out to the end of this year for when we'll see them help convert customers.
Always the end of the year ~ which pushes performance until Q1/Q2 of next year.
Very tiring
titlewave ~ you might be correct. We do not know enough to do anything other than speculate.
However, one fact continues to jump out, and that is that Wave's revenue, business model and success is 100% dependent on the performance and success of others ~ meaning that if they have no control over their own destiny and business model, there are always excuses that anyone can call to the forefront whenever it suits the individual.
Excuses (you might call them explanations ~ but I don't when they pertain to a public company's performance) are not what any of us have much of a stomach for anymore.
This is why Wave can not give guidance
This is why Wave has a new reason for non-performance every quarter ~ and why Wavoids always post the same thing prior to each CC. And that is, "I don't expect much in the way of revenues this quarter, but 1 - 2 quarters down the road ~ that's when we expect to see any measurable progress.
Does anyone know how many quarters in a row that's been posted? It's well beyond the "we'll see progress" timelines expressed on this board.
The truth is none of us know any more than the next person. It's coming ~ can be the mantra of this board for the next 10-years ~ and excuses for pushing out revenues can continue to emerge indefinitely. The difference this year (over years past) is that more and more investors are beginning to say, 'enough already with the excuses and delays. Let's see the performance now'.
That number will continue to grow every quarter that Wave underperforms IMO. That's a fact!
Thanks Ramsey2 ~ Sounds promising, but also sounds like further delays in sales due to Juniper having to sell first.
Seems to be a resounding theme ... everyone else has to go first. While we already knew this, and didn't like it the first 50 times it was thrown back at us as a fact of life, it will be interesting to ask Steven how long Wave's sales cycle was on these Juniper (node purchase) opportunities, or if they've even been invited to present yet.
We need to start to learn more about the selling process, and whether Wave is an integral part of the process, or simply an optional follow-on. Otherwise we'll continue to have no line of sight to revenues and/or reasonable revenue timeframes.
awk ~ in as optimistic of a tone as I can project in text
I sure hope you're right .... I really am
I just wish they'd hurry up already now!
T123
awk - I believe the real reason is that many do not care about this stock ~ because Wave has given them reason not to for the past several years.
There is no bottom when there's no significant reportings of progress. Trickles of progress have to lead to floods of progress or the 'cry wolf' scenario begins to get old quickly ~ so the story goes.
This board has cried wolf for many quarters in a row that the "end is near", and "this will finally be the defining year", and "It's coming" and on and on.
Well ~ this could in fact be very true ~ and I really hope it is. But history has not shown any progress that is consistent with the prognostications year-over-year.
I'm afraid that while there are many that are aware of Wave, and it's history, the bad news is, that many are aware of Wave and its history. Only the company itself can change that perception from here ~ not us.
regards,
Weby ~ I've been selling to the fortune 500 for the past 5-years, and we've only sold 50 of them on our product in those 5-years.
Although I'm not comparing the product I sell to Wave's, and I would agree that these companies need better security ~ my software helps them find where those vulnerabilites exist.
So what am I saying? Selling to 200 F500 companies in 08 when you haven't sold to any in the years prior is flawed thinking IMO.
Regards,
T123
kiwitaxi ~ I have no way of knowing. There's been no indication of guidance by Wave in that direction to the best of my knowledge ~ although a Forward-Looking Statement or two may have spilled out. I pay no attention to either Steven's prediction, or the spreadsheets that work their way across these boards.
I only look at the revenues, contracts signed and shared, and who's buying. Those 3-things will tell me everything I need to know about the possibilities.
Snacks ~ your responses are not absolute either. Therefore, under the guise that neither of us knows anything for certain, the only remaining yardstick is actions ~ as they speak louder than words.
The stock price has never been a priority in Steven's mind.
Wave's CEO plans (financially) only for the immediate need, and not the future, which has hurt investors in the past, and continues to do so in almost quarterly dilutions.
He rewards himself and his staff, even in the worst of times.
He buys no stock himself outside of stock-option plans which he himself establishes. And, I do not buy for a moment the notion that he can not find a way to do so, and inject shareholder confidence whenever he wants to.
Although he stays in touch with the investor community on the whole, he has not once produced any expected results (financially speaking) within a timeline that he's actually stated. If you care about your investors ~ it's very important to actually perform according to plan once in a while.
These are some of my reasons why I believe he cares little about his investors
Snackman ~ this isn't our brother, or father ~ this the CEO of a company that has lost money, and not cared about its investors having to suffer through countless dilutions for the past 10+ years now.
Who would you prefer we be angry with for all of the endless funding rounds, and a declining share price that continues to decline long beyond anyone's expectations? Even your expectations have been well documented across several discussion and due-dilligence boards over the years. And I think it clear that this slog has even surpassed your expectations by a few years, at least!
So whom would you prefer we be disappointed in? ~ the buying public for Wave's declining share price? Wave's hard working employee base? Their non-existent sales force? Partners who once they publicy claim to become one, seem to drift off into revenue and contract invisibility? Michael Sprague? The e-surance and mortgage industries? The Federal Government?
Who?
No one is not a possible answer any longer. Someone needs to feel the heat a bit now, and produce ~ whom should it be?
Doma ~ There's a good chance that you're wasting your breath. Many on this board strongly believe that the actions of Wave and its management has all been necessary. There's also an overwhelming belief that those who are negative will all get what they deserve some day ~ and that somehow a strong commitment to being loyal will somehow make any successes with this stock more gratifying in the end.
Unfortunately, success gratification to someone who got in at $5 - $24/shr is much different than to someone who gets in at $0.65. Also, one's opinion of management's performance, and their accountability to its shareholders is also likely to be different.
That being said, there is no denying the fact that Wave has done what it neded to to stay alive. There is also no denying that this was a vision that, without Steven and Peter may not have happened in the same way that it has over the past 10-years. However, as an investor ~ none of that really matters does it? Because at the end of the day, investing is about buying low and selling high ~ and no one has been able to successfully do that with Wave for the past several years, because the stock just continues to pursue a more rigorous downward trend, and has only brief, sporadic snippets of positive movement to the upside.
In my judgement, that has been what has made this stock a very bad investment for me. If you can't monetize your ideas within 10+ years, and a share of your investment community is still suggesting (every year) that this is the year when things are about to turn around ~ and then they don't ~ well that also is a sign of poor investment judgement on my part.
We should also ask ourselves now what success truely looks like at this point ~ and if success is large-scale adoption of upgrades, then having 1-2 years now to make that happen shows Wave to be lacking success, not gaining success. To have a 12-month price target of $1.25 is also an indication of a less than stellar performance against stated goals.
There are really no words left at this point. On the one side, you have those who believe that success is moments away, and on the other, you have those who believe that not only does it appear that the corner is not Wave's corner to turn ~ but always someone elses corner must be turned first. To that end, many feel this corner is always further away.
In my opinion, there have been no winners here for the past 10-years. Only varying degrees of losses. There is no winning when your investment needs 13-years or more to develop, because even if the company does ultimately profit ~ all you have left is to kick yourself over how uninformed your investment was in reality, for at least 10 of those years.
It's a shame, but this investment is not anyone's fault on either side. It's really just been a public display of my ignorance, and poor judgement. Nothing more, or less. For this, I have no one to blame but myself.
Weby ~ Very well could be an accurate supposition on your part. However, how do we all get past a 12-month share target of $1.25 / shr after all this time, given what we all have been told?
Snackman - it's at the bottom of the PR that was already posted on this board
Taglich ~ I suppose the $2 and $4 per/shr estimates that prior analysts predicted became too much for Wave to live up to ~ so they paid a newer, less-expensive analyst to put out their information at now a much lower "12-month" price target of $1.25
Here's where I get off the bus, because I have heard revenues of $10s of millions of dollars this year in revenues from almost everyone on this board, and even Steven himself. For him to make such bold, forward-looking statements Steven had almost a full quarter's worth of advanced knowledge over the rest of us when he made these "forward-looking" revenue predictions.
As it stands, if these were realistic revenue possibilities, he would have shared them with Taglich, and I would have to imagine that the target would have likely been higher if these were real orders/numbers.
But as you all keep telling me ...
Infineon is a Tech Partner ~ No?
http://www.wave.com/partners/
So what does that mean in light of the Intel PR?
GreenWavx ~ exactly! And thanks for pointing to that for me.
So with these partners, some longs might feel that sales, from multiple channels might realistically be considered a bit lagging ~ NO?
With these partners and an ever-growing pipeline, these kind of partners do not generally undergo the same long-term scrutiny for their solutions that a stand-alone company like Wave would by itself.
In that light, we all can't have it both ways. Either these partners are good partners, and should be helping us (Wave) get more sales faster (no need for 1-year trial cause we already tested Wave) than anyone else ~ or they are simply icons on a web-page that still reflect "optional" partnerships of convenience.