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lol - well some how, i think you manage well in these types of markets.
the last time that we has such a streak on the ndx was waaaay back in 1992. so no recent history on that particular set up.
Is that what you were asking?
well, i'm honored that you would give up your last post responding to me. I think if you PM the admins and ask them to bump up your post count sooner than later, they may do so as long as it does not appear you are a spammer.
Hello Phil. Welcome, glad to hear you finally made it!
Nasdaq 100 chalked up it's 10th consecutive close last night. Last time that occured was jan 1992. Oddly, this is both short and intermediate term bullish!
There have only been 7 other times when the nasdaq has closed up for 10 consecutive days. While not satistically significant, it is interesting to note that in 6 out of those 7 cases, the NDX was higher 1-3 days, as well as 10 days (2 weeks) later.
Mr. Gann did not show up this time it appears. This is a very 'odd' market i would say. There are numerous sell signals over the past week, yet the market continues to make higher highs.
When this type of defiance occurs, it usually is bullishing looking out a couple of weeks if memory serves me right - strenght begets strength. Dips will likely be bought.
Lots of speculation still here as this market is being grinded higher by 'dumb money'. It's likely to end pretty badly, but probably not before almost all bears are beaten senseless.
yes - almost all suffer from decay. i have seen some who short them in pairs for the long term. they short the long and inverse both and count on decay to produce a profit.
So Mr. Gann and his hocus pocus is up to bat tomorrow - i'll put a little wager that he hits a home run tomorrow or monday.
Breadth once more..
We ended the day with 9:1 A/D ratio and a whopping 28:1 u/d volume ratio. This appears to be a slight negative short-term, BUT bullish looking out a 2 to 4 weeks.
Only four other times since 1950 have we seen similar readings. While in the short term the market closed lower at some point with in the next three days, in every case the market closed higher 10 days out.
Ticker Date/Time Close ad ud PctChg N1 PctChg N2 PctChg N3 PctChg N10Looking at just occurrences where we have had a 9:1 or greater A/D ratio, we see that again, in the majority of the cases, the market was trading up 2 to 4 weeks later.
^GSPC 11/15/1957 40.37 9.74 35.84 -0.82 -1.39 -1.11 2.45
^GSPC 8/17/1982 109.04 10.09 41.94 -0.46 0.11 3.65 9.6
^GSPC 9/18/20071519.78 9.17 29.83 0.61 -0.07 0.39 1.77
^GSPC 3/23/2009 822.92 10.18 41.62 -2.04 -1.1 1.21 1.53
^GSPC 7/15/2009 932.68 9.16 28.28 0 0 0 0
Ticker Date/Time Close ad ud NDayRet PctChg N1 PctChg N2 PctChg N3 PctChg N10 PctChg N20
^GSPC 11/15/1957 40.37 9.74 35.84 1 -0.82 -1.39 -1.11 2.45 -0.62
^GSPC 6/30/1965 84.12 11.56 15.59 0 0.43 1.24 1.03 1.9 0.67
^GSPC 8/16/1971 98.76 14.05 9.22 1 1.25 -0.16 -0.61 0.77 0.59
^GSPC 1/3/1974 99.8 10.3 10.18 1 -0.9 -1.73 -3.69 -2.51 -3.24
^GSPC 1/2/1975 70.23 9.12 6.9 0 0.68 1.2 1.12 2.59 8.51
^GSPC 8/17/1982 109.04 10.09 41.94 1 -0.46 0.11 3.65 9.6 13.99
^GSPC 1/2/1987 246.45 9.04 21.18 0 2.33 2.57 3.6 8.05 11.21
^GSPC 1/5/1987 252.19 9.43 19.15 0 0.23 1.25 2.02 6.8 9.62
^GSPC 9/18/2007 1519.78 9.17 29.83 1 0.61 -0.07 0.39 1.77 1.23
^GSPC 10/13/2008 1003.35 19.17 18.91 1 -0.53 -9.52 -5.67 -15.39 -8.39
^GSPC 3/10/2009 719.6 12.75 26.84 0 0.24 4.33 5.13 12.02 13.33
^GSPC 3/12/2009 750.74 10.08 19.29 0 0.77 0.42 3.65 10.94 14.1
^GSPC 3/23/2009 822.92 10.18 41.62 1 -2.04 -1.1 1.21 1.53 3.3
^GSPC 7/15/2009 932.68 9.16 28.28 0 0 0 0 0 0
thanks much elena - i value your 'cluck'. lol
7/17? For some reason I thought it was 7/15.
I would love to see this sort of frenzy type buying continue into friday. That would put us into severely overbought.
This sort of breadth also seems a little blow off top like - esp on nasdaq.
I am going to assume my chicken stance however - nibble and nimble.
I think so. have a look at the candle reversal candle from july 8th and the one today. Now the one today isn't as 'sweet' as the july 8th, but stil, it's possible that the lows of this candle will hold as far as the VIX is concerned.
lol. this one apparently likes to likes to play the game of chicken.
There were just too many eyes on this H&S. I don't recall a technical pattern getting as much CNBC/Media play as this H&S pattern. And we know, the market tends to fool most, most of the time.
VIX divergence. VIX did make a new low today as expected and did bounce - only problem is, market did not move as it normally does - in the opposite direction.
This divergence is even more rare given how much the S&P is up. If i am not mistaken, there as never been a case where this type of divergence has not resolved itself in a day - either with the VIX dropping tomorrow or the market.
I will say that i like the candle i am seeing on the VIX, it was the candle that indicated a reversal last week and now it may be doing so again. We will see. Markets are extraordinarily bullish today and could see more follow through tomrrow - at least intraday
Anyone watching that VIX divergence. VIX did make a new low today as expected and did bounce - only problem is, market did not move as it normally does - in the opposite direction.
This divergence is even more rare given how much the S&P is up. If i am not mistaken, there as never been a case where this type of divergence has not resolved itself in a day - either with the VIX dropping tomorrow or the market.
I will say that i like the candle i am seeing on the VIX, it was the candle that indicated a reversal last week and now it may be doing so again. We will see. Markets are extraordinarily bullish today and could see more follow through tomrrow - at least intraday
im permachicken.
semis have the perception of being a good global temperature guage when it comes to possible recovery i think.
I closed out my ill SDS, and left my sell of the 51 FAZ calls on the board. It really did buffer me quite a bit.
semis have the perception of being a good global temperature guage when it comes to possible recovery i think.
I closed out my ill SDS, and left my sell of the 51 FAZ calls on the board. It really did buffer me quite a bit.
Any takers for a Dow 300+ today? we have frenzy - and frenzies can defy over extended/overbought conditions.
The channel i spoke about yesterday has been broken to the upside and the VIX continues to make new lows. Breadth is ridiculously positive!
With futures on fire due to INTC earnings, timing could be ideal for a top tomorrow - wouldn't that bee something.
-VIX closed at a new closing low today. VIX may paint a lower low tomorrow.
-Bradley Turn date is targeted for today/tomorrow.
-S&P bumps upper channel resistance and paints a lower low.
Only concern is the fact thta we got a bullish follow through following yesterday's 5:1 a/d and 10:1 u/d day. I say bullish because bredthtoday was 2:1 at least for both a/d and u:d - so it was 'true' buying.
Looks like that retest we talked about last week is almost complete - VIX at a closing low today and likely to paint a daily lower low tomorrow while S&P tests the down trending channel resistance. I think tomorrow could be an ST to IT top - timing and setup would seem ideal:
-VIX new low
-Bradley Turn date
-S&P bumps upper channel resistance and paints a lower low.
Then again, a positive follow through after such a day like yesterday can be construed as bullish as well.
Tried a little 3Xer experiment today. Seems the price of OTM contracts that are closing this week are exceptionally high (likely due to earnings IV).
Opened SDS @56.65 into close, and sold FAZ 51 calls for what seems like rather high price of 1.30/contract. With 3 days to expiration, FAZ has to close above 52.30 for this to be a losing trade.
Asumming FAZ remains under 52.30, this credit effectively lowers my entry on SDS to $55.35.
We will see how this plays out.
Yesterday wasn't enough? lol.
When you get a 5:1 a/d and 10:1 u/d day - it's usually flat to down the following day. so today's action was not unexpected. If we close up it could be a positive looking out several weeks, but in the short term, we should get a little retrace here i think.
As for Gann and Bradley, remember they are turn points, they don't predict direction. So let's look at that.
Bradley 6/3, 6/26 and 7/14-15 were the last set of turn dates.
-The 3rd pretty much marked the end of the uptrend and a move into a sideways trading range. The highs of the 3rd was never exceeded by more than a 1% or so. That range would marke the high.
-6/26 (also a Gann Turn) was one day earlier than the second lower high to be printed
-7/14-15 ???
Well we will see. If it plays out as it should, with the trend going into this date, we should see a move down for the short term at least - painting yet another lower high.
Nyse breadth today: Advancers outnumbered decliners by more than 5 to 1. Up voume exceeded down volume by more than 10 to 1 (or 90%+ up volume).
These are abnormally lopsided. Only 19 times have we seen similar occurrences. In 79% (15 out of 19) of the cases, the market was trading lower with in 3 days.
HOWEVER, in 17 out 19 cases, the market was trading higher 20 trading days (about a month) later.
Seems to impy we should fade any GS induced rally, and but don't over stay on the short side just yet.
If GS causes a rally tomorrow, i would not be surprised to see the VIX make a lower low and the S&P test it's down trend resistance from the june highs.
decided to move to cash into close. i think the vix retrace is moving a bit too fast. it may retest its lower bb, but since tomorrow is all about gs, id rather take profit here and wait to react to a gap up or down tomorrow, rather than gamble on a direction here.
It will take time, but i don't think you can mess with the marke this much - it will push back; right now the tail is wagging the dog, but i have faith that capitalism and the markets can cleanse itself off all this non-sense - even if it means bringing more pain.
It's interesting to note Geithner is on a Global tour declaring with one tongue that the economy is fine and growth is back, but with the other tongue, underscoring the risk and dangers that still lurk - clearly they too will need to put fear in the american people if this 2nd stimulus is to pass. That is going to be interesting to see how they do this.
Expectations for GS are very high now. The logical thought is that the market should sell on GS report - which is probably why that won't happen and this rally could continue.
i don't really believe in the perception that one "leaves money on the table".
I think when you have a profit, there is nothing to regret. Even if the market moves higher, being in a trade as that occurs is not necessarily the right thing IF move higher has increased risk. Better to be out and looking for a better and less risky setup.
same here - was hoping to play the long side, but it's hard to do so with so much speculation going on.
It turly is historic. not sure if i posted the data before, but in short
-if you take the daily total of nasdaq volume and divide by the daily total nyse volume, you get a ratio that gives you and idea of where the overall volume in the market is coming from.
-there is enough data there to go back and draw a graph for over two decades.
-if you compare this to the S&P, you will see when this ratio is hitting relative highs, it is usually around near market tops
The interesting thing about this is these 'warning spikes' became much more profound starting in the late 90s. THATS WHEN ONLINE BROKERS became really popular - opening the gates of the slaughter house (disguised as a pot of gold ofcourse) to the little guy.
What's more interesting is the readings i am seeing now are HISTORIC - never before have we seen the highs in this ratio that we are seeing now.
It's not an indicator that implies you should run to the hills immediately, as when specualtion starts climbing, those same speculators will be responsible for a good portion of the move up towards the top. but as it hits values of 1.75 to 2.0 or higher, it has been wise to start thinking defensively. These types of readings have been there for weeks now! These speculators are a particularly stubborn bunch this time around.
market seems to having a hard time finding buyers - based on overall decline in volume and ratio between nasdaq and nyse volume,, it leaves one with the impression that only the little guys are buying while institutions are out or hedging(put/call has been steadily rising)
I recall reading that someone or some group did something similar in the not so distant past - stole by exploiting rounding errors.
i'm going to hang with the bulls for a bit here, but definitely not LOADING up - think we could retest the upper resistance of the down trend channel formed from the lower highs and lower lows of the last two months, which would project to around 910-920 area i think
Ah ok, i see it - i think that's highly probable. thx.
Where is your T-3 (value wise)? higher or lower than current price?
I think the VIX and VXO possibly have topped for the short term and will retest the lower end of their rising BB. The type of candle stick we saw on the VIX and VXO as well as the S&P typically are reversal candles pending confirmation.
Best confirmation i think would be if we get a move down on the vix today such that the candle doe snot exceed the lows of yesterday much, and likewise, if we get a move up in the S&P it will paint a candle that when combined with yesterdays - is an ST bullish picture - one that could take us to retest 910 - 920 (upper resistance of down trending channel).
It looks like despite the late day rally we did get some ST buy signals last night.
This market is now in a not so steep down trending channel and could possibly now re test the upper resistance of that channel
halted? hrrrrrmmmmm - now why go to such extreme. oh the drama. lol
Looks like most of these extreme readings did not last into the close - so some of these did not trigger.
-RSI(2) buy did trigger
-VIX RSI(5) did trigger
-The candles on the major as well as VIX and VXO often indicates a change in short term move.
-Also it looks to me the majors are showing potential POSTIVE divergence. another up day would confirm this.
would not be surprised if the S&P reverses here to test 900+ (around it's newly formed down trend line).
...which includes the much talked about neckline of the infamous and Head & Shoulders pattern.