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THC Tenet Healthcare
For those with a passion to find the devil in the details this might prove interesting.
Before getting to the meat and potatoes a few observations during this investigation - as you might suspect - you can't trust your broker’s platform for DD. What I found on the major broker's websites is earnings and dividends that are totally wrong. Always go back to SEC site and double check what was filed. The data sources such as Dow Jones and Reuters make blazing errors which may be intentional or not. The earnings I found on Fidelity overemphasized earnings over 200%.
The real problem is taking earnings from press releases. There appears to be no restriction to lying on a press release. The analysts use the wrong information supplied by their own company, DJ, R and others, to generate opinions about a stock using their own bad data. They also use the subject company's press releases to derive their opinions.
The real meat - on 11/7/12 THC issued a press release that claimed their earnings had climbed over 700% quarter on quarter. THC knew the release was false when issued. You can verify for yourself by going to SEC and finding third quarter 2011 earnings reported as $.05. Then look up third quarter 2012 and you will find $0.37. So, you might ask why is that a problem? Because they had a 1:4 stock reverse split in October of 2012 and did not adjust the earnings comparison!
If you platform doesn't display splits then you might have to select it somewhere. I had to find it on my platform.
In reality, on an adjusted basis, THC actually made less per share in the third quarter than they reported in the second quarter. Yes they did well from 2011 to 2012 but not 700%.
THC has had a wild climb since earnings on 11/7. Executives of THC have been making millions off of the false rise. Their CFO actually bought a large chunk near the beginning of the climb. I expect he will be getting out this week at a substantial profit. The false financial press release was his doing.
So why is this important to us lowly traders? When we discover something like this, it is a great opportunity to ride the bull up, watch carefully and ride the bear down. Sell puts and buy calls on the way up. Sell calls and buy puts on the way down. The stock is too expensive to make a major play with stock alone.
I received an email back from Reuters asking why I was giving them this information rather than my broker. I had already called my brokers. Their reply was that brokers do not control what is in the news nor the data to generate charts on their platform. Read their TOS carefully. You have absolved them from any responsibility for accuracy of data. Reuters really doesn't care if their data is bad or their analysts are ignorant and stupid. They get their money from you anyway.
Conclusion out of this is to always go back to the SEC for verification on any data you are going to use to base a trade on. You can get into Edgar through the SEC site.
You might wonder how a lowly trader found the devil in the details. I wrote a program that looks over the whole market for things like this. I have access to a complete database.
You might wonder if I know what I am talking about. For an example of how it is done right look at FBC. They did a 1:10 just before their first profitable quarter. Makes their earnings look good and in their press release about third quarter 2012 they got it right and adjusted their 2011 earnings for comparison.
Anytime a company declares remarkable earnings improvement always look for a reverse split since the last reported earnings.
THC management put their hand in the cookie jar and got caught. IMO, THC is an outstanding downplay as you wish. My first meeting with the SEC is tomorrow AM. The big brokerage houses really don't care but maybe the SEC does. We shall see.
The executives have robbed the bank!
Notice that on 11/7/12 THC issued a press release that compared their $0.37 earnings to $0.05 in the corresponding 2011 quarter. They just opted to not correct the $0.05 for the 1:4 reverse split on 10/11/12! The press release showed an increase in earnings over 700% which is false.
The executives of THC have sold millions of shares since this "oversight" and the CFO as bought 28,850 early on.
In addition, on 11/27/12 they filed for an Automatic Mixed Securities Shelf. They are going to raise more money for the company at inflated prices.
To verify how it should be done look at FBC who had a 1/10 split prior to earnings. Their press release got it right in their comparison.
This large rise in the PPS is not justified and neither are the profits gained by insider trading.
Stunning only when looking under the table. ESRX has been very quiet about their 100% lock on the USG PCIP market. This was acquired through the purchase of Medco. Letters went out last week to PCIP participants advising that they must use ESRX mail order or lose their discounts. Did not find any reference to this development on public news.
The low forcast of a red quarter ahead counters the PCIP business they don't talk about and their actual improved earnings. Why then the depressing new release?
12/5/12
Dir Benanav acquires 35,708 shares
12/3/12
Dir MacMahon acquires 18,740 shares
COO McNamee acquires 101,004 shares
It appears the insiders kept the PPS low for their acquisitions. I expect ESRX will now move back up to the mid 60s or above where they belong. IMO a good option or stock play to the upside. They disclosed everything publically far enough ahead to avert suspicion and got a very good price. The bad projections will just fade away and by next earnings they will be in the surprise category. Any by the way they are increasing costs for medications to the federal government, in some cases doubling the cost by forcing the use of the higher mail order cost than what the drugs can be purchased for at the local pharmacy. Your tax dollars at work employing bureaucrats and rewarding the drug companies!
Flatcat
MertherQ copied the information exactly as released. My understanding is that the Form 144 makes the stated number of shares unrestricted. Given the number of shares that JB owns, this is a drop in a bucket full of BORK shares. I can only surmise that either JB and others need food money or they have registered the shares knowing that something is going to happen.
The registration of the shares with Form 144 is only an intent to sell within 90 days. True, they cannot trade based upon insider information, but once the information is public they are free to trade with the rest of us. If news is made public, I don't think they have to wait until the market responds to the news to be legal. They have followed the legal requirements to be able to sell former restricted shares. Given the small amounts they registered, IMO, it is food and gas money if they sell now. If JB filed for 2-3 million shares I would be very concerned. 272,000 shares is a typical day or two of volume, if he sells them now. I am hoping that the registration is to sell 90 days from now when the stock will be higher. I have no facts to support one way or another this is JMHO.
Walk in their shoes.
First, I am certainly not happy about insider selling! This is almost always not a good sign. I try to think about why. Does JB and CJ need money for dog and cat food? I really don't know but if I was in their shoes, with no cash income, what would I do. I need to feed the dog and cats or I know that Ultra is going to come through with a good contract. Since I have so much BORK stock I want to sell some so I can go to Petsmart and get some food.
Perhaps I have enough shares that I can sell some and get money for dog and cat food now and still have enough for getting a good return down the line. Let's sell some now and feed the dog and cats now and provide for me later.
Registering through form 144 keeps me legal from any incrimination's I will sell some now and keep 90% of what I have to make my life happy later. I don't know what else to do!
Form 144 makes my life secure because I have followed all the legal rules about selling 2% of my stock. No SEC recriminations about dealing under the table. With positive things happening in the future I will be alright with the bulk of shares I have.
Short term is not important but long term I will be in good shape.
Good catch. I think UA and BI may work together down the road on these vehicles. The 15% vulnerability is still problematic. The data supports the idea that appropriate measures have very effective results. If Kryron reduces that 15% then UA and BI have a joint opportunity to retrofit not only the MRAPs but certainly other vehicles. That's why I consider the initial "contract" with UA as critical to BI's success. SOF will be the initial requirement followed by the regular troops.
Also, keep in mind that ceramic appears to have a lifetime associated with it. If the lifetime for vehicle protection is anywhere close to body armor then decisions will have to be made as to purchasing more ceramic from Ceradyne or replacing the ceramic with Kryron plates. If they are not going to replace the vehicles then it comes down to replacement of plates. BI wins this decision in my opinion as long as BI is cost/benefit competitive. It will take a spreadsheet with a lot more detail than what I have to call that one. All I can say is that any vehicles held in reserve will have to meet initial requirements. If the calendar makes them obsolete then they will do a cost/benefit study to determine how to make them compliant with requirements. It is all about "form, fit, function and requirements". If BI can learn what the requirements are and offer something that is an easy choice then BI (and us) win! This is again dependent on how well BI can work with UA. This as a potential win/win for both companies.
The history of such items in military situations is that if the USG can get a better vehicle with Kryron then they will sell these vehicles through Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to second world countries depending on how much they can get for them. They may be able to get enough money for them through FMS to pay for replacement with Kryron equipped vehicles. The answer from the Pentagon is always subject to change. This is an opportunity for UA to put together a proposal that makes it a win/win/win/win for USG, UA, BI, and us. It might be a little early to assume that UA and BI are working together today on this situation. But, I would think it will happen in the near term as UA gets more confidence with BI and Kryron.
Flatcat
Thanks RockQQ. Just what I think all of us were looking for.
Based upon your price thoughts it would appear that the 300M+ share boat anchor is on the bottom and buried deep. As soon as revenues break into a respectable amount it would seem reasonable for reverse split.
Given the current developing market in Kryron, as a material, and BI's limited production and personnel capability, I would expect ramp up of sales to be slow but increasing at an increasing rate. The increasing rate is going to be problematic for BI unless they will outsource what they do not have the capability in capital or personnel to produce. My expectations include a EWAG of $10M in sales next year. This could be an order of magnitude one way or the other but not much more than that.
RockQQ, do you have any thoughts (SWAG or EWAG), based on your analysis experience, how much in sales would be appropriate for a 300M+ share company to realistically expect to have a PPS of, say, $10/s? We can scale it from there. I realize the question is on sales and not about profits. The expectation of profits is after the dust settles from the increase in sales. My thought on PPS is that the initial significant rise will be based on initial orders, not sales or profits. This should be a relatively short term period. Depending on how bumpy the ride, we shouldn't have too much of a dip down because BI's time from contract to revenue is relatively short. Suppliers get paid shortly after they deliver not when the end product (i.e. vehicles) are delivered. I expect a "consolidation" following the rally from increased revenue to a steady rise as profits increase.
The risks I see in the near term are BI's capability to negotiate profitable contracts. The is no risk on availability of nano-tubes for the Ultra customer. This is either genius on the part of BI or extremely good luck. As this business expands, the near term customers will also provide BI with the availability of nano-tubes. Hopefully, the nano-tube suppliers can ramp up enough to meet demand as BI's sales move into areas where they have to compete for nano-tube delivery. With the increase in nano-tube applications world-wide there is most likely to be some tight supply lines.
So, RockQQ, it would seem that your thoughts on a third test of .09 may occur after the financials come out, assuming that they are good, when people "sell the fact", and before announcement of a significant contract. The PPS may rise immediately and then perform the final test of .09.
The best we might do the short term is a "letter contract" (LC) (which I detest) from Ultra before year end. I think UA and BI may go that way just so BI can get the raw materials. In this case, an LC might be OK to get the ball rolling.
Contract announcement should get us into .19-.30 range. It will probably be a relatively small contract but a very significant opening into that specific market. I think "busting through the 0.30s" will come with a follow-on contract that is of significant value. This will be confirmation of BI and Kryron as a viable product and business. My guess is first or second quarter next year.
My thoughts on the business development timeline have not included any customers other than the Ulta potential because it is the only one that seems near-term realizable. If BI announces significant progress in any of the other possible markets (aircraft, electric, armor, etc.), I only see this timeline getting shorter.
That's the extent of my tea leaf cup of business development - all subject to change due to cup change. I always liked the question of whether the cup is half full or half empty. I believe the cup is just the wrong size!
RockQQ, does this sit anywhere close to your thoughts on PPS analysis?
Flatcat
RockQQ, what are the tea leaves saying?
I think many of us would like to hear what your charts are indicating, especially the support levels. It would seem that with the 60,000 shares traded in last 2 minutes, the large blocks hanging around at 16 ask might be gone. Just asking.
Flatcat
Data sources used by platforms are not all the same. For instance, the data source used on a platform I use has a data source for it's chart volume that is based on the "ticker" which is different from the volume used by most quote sources. By adding the volume shown on my chart, the actual daily traded volume is almost always higher than what is shown on this board and most quote sources. The explanation from platform provider is that difference is the "dark pools".
In your case, my platform chart shows your exact volume traded yesterday at 11:58 EST. Your platform most likely does not use the same data source as my platform. I can't see who the market maker was for your trade so, based on your not being able to see your exact trade, I expect that your trade was executed in the "dark pool" which was probably from market maker inventory. It was shown on the ticker but was not executed through the normal exchange process and thus was not included in most stock quote data sources.
There are many sources for stock data. I had thought that everyone would use the ticker for volume and price. Research last year yielded a very different story. It seems all the data sources use the ticker for price but some use the exchanges for volume. You can only tell the difference if you can sum up all the volume off the ticker and compare it to exchange reported data. Prior to looking into this, I didn't even know "dark pools" existed. Pulling on that thread yielded a real education about how the market works for the insiders. The market apparently has it's own grey (black - dark pool) market just like everything else.
Flatcat
re "Sound Unfamiliar" ?????? "Ultra Armoring, LLC of Shelby, NC is a current contract award winner for the USSOCOM NSCV (Non Standard Commercial Vehicle) initiative." "We (Ultra Armoring) have been in test validation at our private range to better understand how we can apply Kryon to existing fleets and future vehicle programs. Being able to cut, form and weld a material like this makes for very interesting discussions as this is a real departure from current armoring trends,"
"We (Ultra Armoring) have been in test validation at our private range to better understand how we can apply Kryon to existing fleets and future vehicle programs. Being able to cut, form and weld a material like this makes for very interesting discussions as this is a real departure from current armoring trends,"
"Kryon has demonstrated some very unique capabilities to defeat extreme multi hit impacts from AP (Armor Piercing) projectiles. Shot spacing has been less than 1 inch without catastrophic failure at rated velocity and distance."
My added comments:
Just try to cover 100% of a metal formed vehicle body with multiple ceramic plates! It "ain't" going to happen! Try to cover 100% of a metal formed vehicle body with Kryron material that can be cut, formed and welded. YES - with Kryron.
Cost of maintenance to inspect ceramic plates for damage - extremely HIGH! Cost to replace ceramic plates (probably the whole vehicle) at expiration of current rated lifetime (just like ceramic body armor) - HIGH. There is no current ceramic plate (based on NIJ testing) that has the lifetime rating equal to a vehicle lifetime! Durability of ceramic v.s. Kryron - not even close.
Cost of protection maintenance for a Kryron based vehicle compared to ceramic based vehicle- LOW!
Flatcat
You are absolutely right! Except in this case, with SOC, it is most likely not a GSA contract. Keep in mind that this is a directed procurement without competition.
I don't understand the point either, save a point of confusion from a lack of understanding of government contracting.
Flatcat
Nobody is hinting or speculating that BI will do business directly with the USG. Bonding and other things required by FARs are a direct responsibility of the prime contractor!
The goal, IMO, is to not be a prime contractor. The subcontractors don't have to meet the same requirements as the prime. In cases where we had a marginal subcontractors we helped them to the degree necessary to be successful. It was in our best interest to make the right subcontractor successful! (ie. BI)
Flatcat
It was excellent news to those who understand the big picture and the consequences of this announcement and to those who understand business and government contracting. These folks are buying with limit orders with a smile on their face.
It was blah news to those who expected announcement of a contract. I expect that the disappointment in misplaced expectations and lack of understanding motivated selling. These folks are selling with disappointment and a frown on their face.
Those who don't understand government contracting and business are confused. Those who understand and have experience in government contracting and business are not confused.
The price drops because there are more confused than not confused!
Flatcat
Here is how it works on government contracts.
First, this evaluation has been going on for a significant time for a government contractor to release such news.
Second, the "change order" (CO) for this class of change requires customer approval. Ultra will submit a CO proposal to their customer. This is where the fun begins. Ultra has existing contracts to suppliers. In order to change suppliers, Ultra must cancel existing contracts while establishing a contract for BI. The rub is that cancellation of a contract obligates Ultra to cancellation charges which further increases the cost of the BI product.
Ultra will propose that, if the customer wants the added performance, that the customer pay all the allowed costs of the contract change. Also, the proposed CO may have a change in delivery date if current manufacturing has to be modified to use the BI material. SOC usually gets what they want and usually gets the best in class to meet their requirements.
These types of changes can go through the process quickly if the customer wants the product. A lot depends on what the validation data indicated. We are not going to see that data. The proof of performance will be a contract award to BI. It is possible to get a change in for the next delivery but not likely due to Ultra already having material in process, unless the customer is willing to slip the delivery date (we may not know about this either). My more confident opinion is that BI will supply material for the next delivery.
Keep in mind that this is a lot bigger than just SOC. Secret Service contracts are not made public. And, probably the best part is that whatever the USG determines to be the best protection, public persons and companies will follow suit.
I can only hope that BI employes the services of a retired Raytheon contracts person who knows how to make this happen without leaving a lot of money on the table or making a commitment to a contract they cannot make money on.
Flatcat
Monthly bird's eye view: MACD changed to a positive slope about 7/5, the moving average changed to a positive slope about 7/25. Accumulation/Distribution by Price bottomed out about 7/5 and has a very small "positive" or flat slope. The large block on the ask of 380,000 shares (about $64,000) at .17 concerns me a little but the indicators are good as long as they maintain a positive slope. The indicators are not really confirmed by volume because volume has been in a downtrend since the tsunami on 6/18. Bollinger bands are really tight right now with a shrinking volume so we should get a breakout soon.
So, IMO, confidence remains in place, euphoria has taken a vacation, we haven't lost ground since 6/28.
Short Interest has dropped from 10500 to only 1000. I don't really like this because a large short interest either means a drop is not really not in the near future, or at least people don't really think so, and lack of a large short interest almost always means not a large pop up on news because of a short squeeze.
We are not good but OK for now.
With all due respect, BI is not "lucky" to have ATL. ATL earned his move to BI through hard work. This was not luck. ATL obviously has a good business head. He prepared himself through previous successes, set his sights on where he wanted to be, developed a well thought out plan, and executed successfully. That is not luck but the results of good work.
If we invested for luck it should have been buying lottery tickets or going to Vegas.
I look forward and expect ATL will perform as well in his future as he has in his past. I admire and respect the mature and experienced addition to the BI family. ATL now has the resources to be successful yet again. History has a way of repeating itself.
The most significant part of the letter, is Sean accepting such a position. Sean is a very smart guy. He would not have made the move to Tucson unless it was a smart move, ie, a positive future. He would not have joined Bourque unless he could make a difference and it would be a positive outcome. He moved toward light rather than darkness. Whatever happens, I know that Sean changed his life direction based upon what he knows about Kryron and Kryron sales. I will completely trust his judgement because he has committed and has put so much on the line. If anyone can approach, match, or exceed Sean's commitment please let us know.
Flatcat
Given the percentages, cost per ounce for production, et. al. this looks like roughly like a profit of $46M for 12 months. Bonanza is spending some revenue for expansion but we don't know how much. How does all of this translate into value per share now, 1 year from now, and 5 years down the road assuming that they stay to plan? Anyone have any ideas?
I agree with you completely. We don't find out until it is fact rather than speculation.
Having served on a jury as foreman for exactly what has been talked about, I can assure that the tests are not all you might think. The calibration is at two points - 0 and 0.08! There is no data on what the test unit does between those two points or above 0.08. The assumption is that it is a linear function but there is no data on any of the machines! The test unit could have a negative second derivative or positive - the police don't know. A competent attorney will question this and raise reasonable doubt necessary. Conviction is enhanced if the other tests are failed but not necessarily.
A competent attorney will show that many people, who don't drink at all, cannot pass the "stand on one foot" test. Two of the people on the jury I served on stated that there was no way they could do that. The "walk the white line" test doesn't always work either - some people do not have that kind of balance for many reasons and further, the police do not always have a white line to lay on the ground. In our case the police told the suspect of an "imaginary" line on the pavement and failed him on it.
JB's case is likely not much different. It's scary how a person can be prosecuted for something so ill defined and ill administrated. There are few police that really know what they are doing. IMO most are convicted due to intimidation rather than the facts. In our case the suspect was very poorly represented.
Just a Perspective.
What a great day for the Nickle Club! With a down-trending stock, almost total negative market sentiment, and a company management that doesn't provide much information, it is a day traders dream. Sell 100K a nickel higher than yesterday's close and buy a nickel below. A clean one day's profit of over 33% in one day. Where else can you get that kind of return on your money with very little risk.
Does this PPS really surprise any of the long time longs? With the almost constant negative market sentiment over the past year, what do you expect? Right now the stock has little positive force save the patents, NIJ, and limited comments from the company. Until BORK makes and reports positive progress PPS will most likely continue to be wipsawed by the daytraders taking everyones money. They don't stay in the market very long so therefore have absolutely no interest in any positive growth of the company. A good part of the volume is just the day traders making money!
Longterm longs just have to believe the facts and wait for the positive news. Even when the trend changes to the upside, the day traders will continue to buy and sell to extract more money like they do for all of their investments. Some people invest to make money. Many more people invest based upon emotions. The money-makers make money. The emotional people lose their money.
So, each person decides for him/herself - are you a long-term investor which means you have done your DD and invest and wait, OR are you a long investor with short sightedness that wants to double your money in two months. IMO the short-sighted and emotional longs end up losing money because they can't stand the wait.
In the end, the day trader makes the most money in the shortest time with lowest risk, the long-term investor can make big money but has to wait until all cylinders are firing, and the long short-sighted investor loses. Pick your poison and good luck - losers have paid for many very large monuments to their emotional decisions in the city of Las Vegas.
There a lot of good facts on this company and Rome was not built in a day.
The pain is only realized when you sell! It's the anticipation of the loss that hurts. How many other investors, like you, have reached the limit of depression and pain? IMO there are a few more than just you so expect that a few more will fold. This stock is not for the faint of heart.
I suggest that you remember the facts of this company, consider your investment a total loss, and NOT SELL. The facts outweigh the negative sentiment, IMO. The sooner you and others gird up your loins and stand fast, the sooner the blood letting stops. As long as the "longs" keep fading the blood-letting continues.
You missed a few major points. What you included is reasonable but not where the big money is.
Many of the transmission lines are at maximum capacity for lines per phase. You can observe this on most HT wires where each phase has multiple wires held apart with spacers. Parts of the grid can only be enhanced by installing a new set of towers parallel to the existing set. In some cases this is what has been done. The maximum physical load on the towers is limited by the weight of all the cables and bending moment on the tower due to wind load on both the suspended wires and towers. In addition, some lines are limited in current due to sag.
What Kryron may be able to offer is a lighter cable, potentially without the heavy steel core, lower resistance, less sag, and for the same current capacity - less wind load (ie. smaller wires). This could permit adding electrical load due to the lower resistance and more important - adding additional conductors per phase. Swapping out the conductors on an existing line is MUCH less expensive than putting up new towers. Unfortunately, we don't have much data on Kryron to understand if Kryron is the right material to make this happen.
The positive indicators we have so far is increased strength over Al- this looks good for removing the steel core, verified lower resistance - good for everything you mentioned and/or reducing wind load. Beyond that I am not aware of any additional data to support the use of Kryron in wire and have seen any data to indicate that Kryron will not work. From an engineering perspective, the Kryron spray may be great for farmers and turbines but it isn't going to contribute significant to wire usage.
Doug, I can help you with your speculative conclusions with a few facts based upon personal experience and that of close friends.
Yes, there is an expectation of Bourque Industries moving to the OTC market top tier, OTCQX. For new companies, they naturally progress up the ladder as they grow and prosper. For BI to move up to OTCQX at this time they would have to stop what they are doing to undergo a full audit. For a startup company this would require a lot of resources that are in short supply, both time and money.
John Bourque has a legal fiduciary responsibility to do what is best for BI. If he were to take the current limited cash and personnel resources to achieve a full audit, he would, in my opinion, based on experience, not be doing what is best for BI. My expectations are about a year off to move up to OTCQX when revenues and personnel can sustain the requirements of an audit.
In addition, I think you have given BI many good reasons for maintaining current PINK status at this time. BI personnel cannot concentrate on growing the company and, at the same time, field every speculation from persons outside the company who admittedly have no facts or experience.
Finally, please help me understand your signature. From my limited experience, I would not expect to find any facts or anything else of interest in a chamber pot.
Flatcat
Copperstone was supposed to be up and running last quarter. Anyone have information on current status?
For those investors who think Bourque Industries has a revolutionary product with performance that greatly exceeds previous competitor's products, I suggest you read the following:
Executive Order 10789, Public Law 85-804, 15 CFR 700, and Federal Acquisition Regulations 6.302-1, 6.302-6, 11.6, and 18.104.
There is an additional PL or CFR that gives the USG the power to take priority on production of private companies. I had to use it once but it was a long time ago and I don't recall the legal reference.
The bottom line is that if someone is an elected federal official, cabinet member, agency head, or has stars on their shoulders, and, Kryron really does what it has been demonstrated to do, then all of these people are going to get whatever Kryron they want to protect their backsides before any STRATS vehicles or other applications. They may do some really dumb things but they are not stupid.
In addition, neither the contracts nor the deliveries will be announced to the public (us). These people do not advertise if or how they are protected. Some public disclosure has been made in the past about a few vehicles but not many for good reasons. Don't expect that sales will identified for limos or towncars. They will be called something else like Fat Boy jackets. I don't care what they call the product. I only want to see product out and dollars in!
My belief is that production is going on somewhere, either in Tucson, Phoenix, or elsewhere. Those in positions of power are getting what they want. There are also many key parts of the US infrastructure that need this protection before any STRATS vehicles or body armor. First quarter 2012 financials should not be flat!
The lagging NIJ cert does not surprise me at all. The high priority for Kryron is not body armor.
I could be totally wrong but I really don't think this kind of protection for the privileged class will go neglected. They have the power and the gold!
Always remember the Golden Rule: "He who has the gold makes the rules."
ATLLivn, help me understand how "we" know that BORK is having money issues. Why do "we" know they must do a fund raiser after FEB? How do "we" know that BORK is short on money as a fact? How do we know they are doing a private placement to fix a problem that we don't even know they have. They seem to have the money to do what they have to do at this time.
The fact is that you CAN and should be the CEO, Fundraiser, etc... until the time arrives to make a change, and, may have to wear many hats until the company matures to the point the company can afford to add expensive management. It doesn't make any sense to me to hire an expensive management team too early in the company development when they cannot afford to.
If you are going to make statements of fact then there should be facts to back them up! I am always interested in facts about a company but not always eager to gobble up opinions when they are based upon rumors or hearsay. I have not observed positive or negative facts about BORK in the recent posts or elsewhere. I have not seen anything of concern recently that would alter my thinking about BORK. I yield the floor to those with "new" supported facts about BORK.
Jon, I see the pricing you mentioned for research quantities purchased on-line. For Industrial grade large quantities, I would expect the price to be 30-40% lower, and, even lower on negotiated contract quantities. This technology is still very new. Additional manufacturers, with more efficient processes, will certainly push the price even lower as well as foreign competition. The Chinese are also producing nanotubes.
This reminds me of the first CK722 I purchased for about $15 for experimentation. Now I can get millions of CK722 functionality, but at higher speed and lower power of the CK722, at a fraction of the cost of one CK722.
Sorry to snap at Bama. Edge1, you are correct on past behavior. My point is that their behavior has changed and we should probably not expect the leaks like we used to have.
I also hope that in the future the PRs are disseminated through the normal business news route rather than facebook. The professionalism of the company is improving with time. They just have a lot to learn in order to swim with the sharks and not be the main course for dinner.
Our logical assumptions, given our lack of information, may not be correct. IMO BI will not release orders, sales, financing, or any other financial information until they release an audited financial report. What I base my opinion on is that an audited financial report will be much more valuable to support PPS if they can include approved NIJ certification, production capability in place and operational, a backlog of orders, possibly some sales, a stable financial condition that supports the future growth of the company, and then a higher PPS before going for large financing. This would mean less dilution to raise substantial cash for expansion. JMHEO.
My logical assumption is that they will not drizzle out tidbits of information but will gather as much together as they can to make the PPS go up and stay up long enough to get the big money. In addition, if the PPS goes up and stays up, based on solid information, then any additional acquisition will cost fewer shares. I think that is how a good business would operate in this situation.
Bama2 - The statement that "they have no stream of revenue and none is expected in the very near future" is not supported by any public released facts. If I missed a pubic release or a current financial report then I may stand corrected. To my knowledge, their current financials have yet to be filed. Production results or backlog has not been reported for the Drexel facility except the cooling issue which is several weeks old. Likewise, no reports have been issued on other production facilities.
We all await current financials and production results.
Physics 102 includes the skin depth calculated as a function of frequency. At 60 HZ it was something like a half inch. At DC the whole conductor conducts. 60Hz us power distribution is why Al is wrapped and then the wrapped conductors wrapped again, and then the combined Al wrapped around a steel core for strength. Skin depth at 50-60 Hz for Kryron has not been made public. What we do know from some tests in Tucson is Kryron has a lower resistance than conventional conductors.
A spray or sputtered layer might be good for UHF to daylight because skin effect at those frequencies is very small. It would be interesting to coat the insides of waveguide and see what happens to the signals. Too many unknowns about electrical applications of Kryron to jump to unsupported conclusions.
We don't know if there are or are not orders in place. We don't know how many have been delivered already or maybe none. We don't have the "right to know" these kinds of details. We will learn what is going on at the same time as everyone else in the public.
Also we don't know what, if any, other levels of armor have been submitted to NIJ. Bourque made his splash at the demos and the NIJ submittal, IMO, not for the body armor but for other uses. Other posters have pointed out how other body armor and Chenney are both formidable rocks in the road regardless of how well the armor works. From what I have read here and elsewhere, there exists a market for which Bourque can make a lot of sales without having to grovel in the mud with much competition. This is just my opinion based upon how the factory at Drexel is set up and a few other clues. I don't have any secret information, only many years of experience in the playing field Bourque is now in. Kryron is what it is. The uses for it are much more valuable in products other than body armor.
I think too many people jump to conclusions about what they want to hear and ask the question "so why no action there". We don't know what action is or is not happening. We will all hear the "numbers" soon enough but may never hear "what the action is".
We will never hear specifics about some customers. IMO we have already heard too much!
NIJ would be nice but I want to see the next financials. The delay is expected and welcomed by me. I am really glad they delayed the Pink Sheet initial financials as long as they did. I don't expect the quarterlies to be filed until 1st quarter next year, although sooner would be nice because it would tell me that they are ahead of where I thought they were.
Bowser - I share your concern. The are three possible reasons I can think of for a larger furnace ordered recently:
1. Other formulations of Kryron require different temperatures for processing,
2. Larger batch sizes are necessary for other applications,
3. Pending orders may exceed what the existing furnaces are capable of.
I don't have any more facts than you do. The delay in NIJ is frustrating, especially when I know the competition is on the approval board and really don't want BORK to succeed. If any single word is out of place on the submission or the test report then expect the competitor to jump all over it. This is all out war for Ceradyne.
Like everyone else, I expected NIJ cert about now or whenever the maximum time for processing has elapsed. I don't think anyone in the body armor community wants a new comer showing them up.
NIJ will come in time, and like you and others I am hoping soon. Meanwhile, I expect BI to work hard on every possible sales potential and maximize the company.
The lack of information is something I expected long before now. I am sure of only one thing and that is that their lawyer told them to knock off the leaks. They were not behaving correctly for a public traded company. Insider leaks can launch help from the SEC, and others, that none of us want to see happen. Leaks can also alert the competition to countermeasures against BORK.
This is one of those cases where silence is golden. Not what I like but willing to live with it because that is the way successful businesses operate.
Help me understand your statement about shares being dumped. On my chart I see only three minutes containing what looks like market orders: at 10:34 the minute opened at .92 and closed at .95 with 48,950 shares traded. If an order was placed for these shares with a limit of .95, someone was willing to sell some of it at .92 and the rest at .95, at 10:45 400 shares were sold at market from 1.00 to .91, a very small number of shares, and at 11:01 6,565 shares were sold at 1.00 down to .95. There was a fourth minute at 10:24 where 35,180 shares opened the minute at 1.01 and closed at 1.00. This fourth doesn't appear to be a "dump".
Are you looking at the OBV to conclude that "dumping" is going on?
What do you see that tells you that 50K shares were dumped?
That is what I understood from KZMike's visit to Tucson. You may be right. Let KZMike clarify.
Additional information from Arizona Public Safety : currently they replace their vests every 5 years of service. They schedule 20% replacement each year.
If Bourque licenses Kryron to another company to produce and sell vests to the end customer then the other company must set up their own QA system. If in this case Bourque supplies any material to the end producing company, then Bourque would have to have a QA system in place to provide QA certification to the end producer. Bourque could impose a mandatory review of the other company's QA system as a license clause (in order to protect the reputation of Kryron) but that is Bourque's prerogative.
If Bourque licenses and contracts to another company to produce the plates and/or vests and Bourque sells to the end customer then both Bourque and the other company will need acceptable QA systems. QA systems are all about control of the processes from initial materials to finished product which includes materials, manufacturing procedures, and test procedures.
I disagree with you that Bourque is headed to another manufacturer due to financials and not being capable of manufacturing themselves.
The only financials we have seen are as of May 31 (pre BAM). The August 31 quarterly has not been submitted yet. So right now any comment on current Bourque financials is pure speculation without any facts to support.
Bourque Industries already has one production line set up for 1000 plates per 8 hour shift with room for additional production lines in the current factory in Tucson. We don't know if they are already producing plates or just ready to produce. Time will tell.
I am expecting that when the August 31 and November 30 reports are filed, at least the November 30 is an audited submission.
Several points of fact -
Yes there are some of that bought a large block of shares of GPGI before the change to BORK. Selling at today's price, let's say .90 would net me +720% on my initial investment. Not a bad profit. I could choose to liquidate and enjoy the nice return on the investment. In penny stock land that is probably what any quick trader would do because penny stocks are usually traded on PPS rather than fundamentals. It does not surprise me at all about the sell off. For many long time GPGI holders these prices are good enough so they have cashed out.
For some of us that understand the workings of this type of a business, we have picked up the shares as the price has come down. It would not surprise me to learn that several on this board have picked up 500K plus shares. We are not selling - we are buying because of the fundamentals of BORK. Any by the way, the financials that were released did not include the funds from BAM. The August quarterly has not been released yet. It also may not show BAM. My expectations are that the August and November reports will be filed to make us fully pink at about the same time as NIJ and will be followed shortly thereafter with contract announcements.
I posted months ago that I thought NIJ cert publish day would be better near year end or early 2012. Most of the board wanted NIJ cert immediately. The reason I want it later is because the cert coming out before the factory is ready to produce would IMO not be good for Bourque Industries. Customers would want delivery ASAP and Bourque would not be able to deliver thus losing customers to competitors. IMO timing is everything in sales. The US government folks Bourque was demonstrating to take the longest to line up their funds. IMO Bourque has been spot on with timing.
Fact - calls in the last couple of days to a local sheriff and the Department of Public Safety (highway patrol) in Arizona resulted in first - no knowledge of Kryron but second - a real interest after learning about Kryron. The advertising campaign has not started yet and probably will not until NIJ and the factory are ready to accept orders.
Fact - some of us have extensive experience with production lines, QA, contracts, and PR. One of the worst things a prospective vendor can do is put out PR about a pending contract until the contract has been signed. Contract people do not like pressure from public opinion about their business. At best it will sour the negotiations and at worst you will not get the contract. J11 does not have the prerogative of leaking information to the public. Leaks sink ships and contracts. Some contracts with the USG will not be in the public view. We don't want the enemy to know how we are protecting our troops any sooner than possible - if ever. The longer the bad guys don't know what we are doing the longer our troops have the advantage. Most of you do not have experience in military contracting so the constant harping about release of information is like teaching a pig to sing - it wastes your time any annoys the pig.
Fact - released financial information to date does not capture the demo or NIJ test results that almost everyone on this board is aware of.
This is not an emotional venture. All the wishing and whining does not change the fundamentals. I don't expect Bourque to release any more information until it has happened. They are behaving like a company should. The PPS does not reflect on the company management at this point - it is a startup. The PPS demonstrates that some folks have cashed out at a really good profit or lack of understand of the fundamentals. Others have bought for the next phase. Some are very happy to sell at today's price and some are distraught because they bought in higher than today's price.
I am content to rest on the fundamentals and the current management activities. PPS will respond to investor sentiment and personal needs. As the company develops the PPS will take care of itself.
I suggest that investors don't feel like the turkey in the pen but like the farmer who is about to enjoy a great meal. It took a lot of feeding and attention, over time, to be able to sit down and carve the bird.
Regards