Thanks RockQQ. Just what I think all of us were looking for.
Based upon your price thoughts it would appear that the 300M+ share boat anchor is on the bottom and buried deep. As soon as revenues break into a respectable amount it would seem reasonable for reverse split.
Given the current developing market in Kryron, as a material, and BI's limited production and personnel capability, I would expect ramp up of sales to be slow but increasing at an increasing rate. The increasing rate is going to be problematic for BI unless they will outsource what they do not have the capability in capital or personnel to produce. My expectations include a EWAG of $10M in sales next year. This could be an order of magnitude one way or the other but not much more than that.
RockQQ, do you have any thoughts (SWAG or EWAG), based on your analysis experience, how much in sales would be appropriate for a 300M+ share company to realistically expect to have a PPS of, say, $10/s? We can scale it from there. I realize the question is on sales and not about profits. The expectation of profits is after the dust settles from the increase in sales. My thought on PPS is that the initial significant rise will be based on initial orders, not sales or profits. This should be a relatively short term period. Depending on how bumpy the ride, we shouldn't have too much of a dip down because BI's time from contract to revenue is relatively short. Suppliers get paid shortly after they deliver not when the end product (i.e. vehicles) are delivered. I expect a "consolidation" following the rally from increased revenue to a steady rise as profits increase.
The risks I see in the near term are BI's capability to negotiate profitable contracts. The is no risk on availability of nano-tubes for the Ultra customer. This is either genius on the part of BI or extremely good luck. As this business expands, the near term customers will also provide BI with the availability of nano-tubes. Hopefully, the nano-tube suppliers can ramp up enough to meet demand as BI's sales move into areas where they have to compete for nano-tube delivery. With the increase in nano-tube applications world-wide there is most likely to be some tight supply lines.
So, RockQQ, it would seem that your thoughts on a third test of .09 may occur after the financials come out, assuming that they are good, when people "sell the fact", and before announcement of a significant contract. The PPS may rise immediately and then perform the final test of .09.
The best we might do the short term is a "letter contract" (LC) (which I detest) from Ultra before year end. I think UA and BI may go that way just so BI can get the raw materials. In this case, an LC might be OK to get the ball rolling.
Contract announcement should get us into .19-.30 range. It will probably be a relatively small contract but a very significant opening into that specific market. I think "busting through the 0.30s" will come with a follow-on contract that is of significant value. This will be confirmation of BI and Kryron as a viable product and business. My guess is first or second quarter next year.
My thoughts on the business development timeline have not included any customers other than the Ulta potential because it is the only one that seems near-term realizable. If BI announces significant progress in any of the other possible markets (aircraft, electric, armor, etc.), I only see this timeline getting shorter.
That's the extent of my tea leaf cup of business development - all subject to change due to cup change. I always liked the question of whether the cup is half full or half empty. I believe the cup is just the wrong size!
RockQQ, does this sit anywhere close to your thoughts on PPS analysis?
Flatcat
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