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BUGGI1000 UBS and most of the other analysts are just playine games trying to knock the stock down, because if UBS believe their stated theories on Flash and CPU's they are really stupid. Those of us who know what's happening know that Intel's first 64 bit Xeon Nacona is likely to underpeform AMD's chip rather significantly because they are not as far along on their X86-64. Granted Intel should have something on par with Opteron in 12 to 18 months, but till then AMD is going to pick up server share, because they have much greater support from Sun and IBM, as well as Fujitsu. Businesses buying servers will see Intel's initial offering (Nacona) and how it will likely lose out on 64 bit benchmarks by even a larger margin than 32 bit applications, and this will make AMD that much more appealing. I really don't expect Intel to have anything competitive on the CPU front in Servers or Desktops for 12 to 18 months. Now UBS talked about Intel using 90NM in Flash to get back share from AMD, I don't see that happening because Intel has been loosing money on Flash as well, And we know Intel was the first one who tried to raise prices on Flash last year. The bottom line is Intel can't control pricing and squeeze AMD when AMD is the performance leader. I don't see Intel being able to regain the performance lead till at least next year so what UBS says is meaningless, and it will be funny to see if they pull a Merrill Lynch and are buying at these levels.
Intel X86-64 bit not up to challenge.
Intel's first X86 entrant later this year is likely an underperforming chip which is Intel's way to save face. AMD is going to have it's weay with the Xeon Server market for some time because Intel's first entrant is only in it's infancy in terms of development. The Intel Fan boys are in denial because they are hoping for a miracle, becuase Intel screwed up in a big way. Now it's AMD's turn to turn the screws on Intel by offering better chips in desktops and servers. Intel has nothing that can even come close to the Opteron 800 series even on 32 bit, let alone 64 bit. Intel will be lucky if it even shows a gain this year in stock price while you can bet AMD will double. I have been loading up on AMD call options and I will be luaghing all the way to the bank.
So greg, you are an Intel employee, it all makes sense know. You better start unloading that company stock because AMD is going to outperfrom Intel again this year, but by a much larger margin. You must be scared to death of what will happen when AMD takes a significant chunk of Xeon's market. All those dollars are going to fatten the AMD reserves to the point where Intel will have no leverage. If AMD reserves get beyond 2 billion Intel will have very little leverage on AMD unless they can create a better product, and right now, AMD dominates intel on CPU's.
picking fights again Greg?
You can't even discuss how Intel has fallen behind AMD, the technology leader because it breaks your heart. Intel Fan boys sure are looking foolish these days. Cha-ching.
Must see: http://www.theinformationminister.com
If it doesn't show the Iraqi Information misister talking about how great Intel is then go through the link given at http://www.amdzone.com
A must see link for AMD fans
http://www.theinformationminister.com
If it doesn't show the Iraqi Information misister talking about how great Intel is then go through the link given at http://www.amdzone.com
chiper, subzero is gone because he realized that Intel following AMD on X86-64 is a confirmation that Intel screwed up and now AMD has a large lead in terms of X86-64 technology. That to go along with superiority on 32 bit applications. He was unable to spin it like you and knew that trying to say AMD following AMD is suddenly an advantage is ludicrous. Thatis because I will guarantee you that the initial Xeon productwith 64 bit extensions is going to be nothing other than a "try to save face stopgap". The problem will be Intel is not far enough along in the architecture, and 64 bit benchmarks are going to prove it. It will be like Itanium trying to run 32 bit applications, not very good. AMD is dominant at both 32 and 64 bits and when people see the benchmarks on Nacona they are going to laugh at Intel and will opt for Opteron instead. Intel poses no threat to AMD in the next 12 months at least when it comes to X86-64. Intel would have been better offf taking more time to try andget things straight, but their pride will end up costing them a lot of moneyin terms of server revenue, as well as desktop revenues. The bottom line is Intel putting out a lousy version of X86-64 only will drive more customers to AMD. I'm glad I was able to expose those Intel Fanboy fantasies for what they are, and that is pure fantasy.
Greg face it Intel screwed up badly
Intel's 64 bit chips are likely to initially be very slow on 64 bit applications because Intel does not use hypertransport or an on chip memory controller. From what I have heard their is very little in the way of a true X86-64 architecture for Intel yet. Xeon 64's performance on 64 bit applications is likely to be like Itaniums performance on 32 bit applications, which is a joke. AMD is going to be able to turn the screws on Intel for quite some time because Intel is at least 12 to 18 months from creating a chip that could really challenge Opteron on 64 bit applications, let alone 32 bit applications. It's funny watching Intel have to lie and stay mum on how they screwed up and underestimated AMD on X86-64. ANd when Intel finally brings out X86-64 on the desktop which will likely come before 2006, they will be getting another serving of crow pie.
AMD cutting into Intels margins
ALl this talk about lowering the cost of Itanium means that Intel is really planning to can P4 because it can't keep up with AMD's A64/Opteron on either 32 or 64 bits. On top of the Intel screwed up last year trying to raise prices too much, too quickly, and now Spansion which is 60% AMD owned has more Nor marketshare than big bad Intel. AMD is going to take Intel to the cleaners this year because it's obvious by Intel's statements that they are not as far along on X86-64. justing adding 64 bit extensions isn't going to do much. The initial result is that when the first Xeon 64 bit chips come out, they will be as poor perfroming on 64 bit applications as Itanium was/is on 32 bit applications. Bottom line AMD is tops already in 32 bit performance, look for an even bigger margin when it comes to 64 bits. And as far as the Intel executive saying he doesn't see the practicality of 64 bits in the desktop until 2006, but he won't rule it out earlier. What this really means is if the uptake in desktop, is like the uptake in servers on X86-64, (once AMD volumes take away most or all of the desktop high end) Intel will have to follow, but will not admit any messtep. Intel has fallen and can't get up. AMD is going to suprise a lot of people this year so don't be suprised in MAy when AMD blows away the earnings expectation.
Intel's 64 bit plans pose no threat to AMD. Thesy can't even get Precott right and the next stepping of Prescott which will supposedly have better thermals isn't due out until May. If Intel comes out with it's glorified Nacona which is supposed to be nothing but a dummied up Prescott by the end of June, I would expect it not to do very well against Opteron on 32 bit applications, or 64 bit applications, thanks to Intel's antiquated FSB and lack of an on chip memory controller. AMD EPS are going to soar this year while Intel will be lucky to keep their numbers up. AMD will no doubt make more EPS in 04 than Intel which meands sometime later this year AMD's price will surpass Intel's.
chipguy, AMD will be selling plenty of socket 754 A64's which will get premium prices and take more of the high end in desktops from Intel. It's a shame you guy's forgot about this but I figured I would remind you, and bring you back to reality. Hey isn't the next stepping of Prescott not due till May. I guess Northwood is going to have to keep getting whipped by A64 until then. Then Prescott becomes the whipping boy. Because bottom line a socket 754 A64 dominates Intel's offerings. Long live the performance king AMD.
Intel won't be able to deliver Nacona by then Elmer. That's laughable to even suggest that.
DougSF30
The Intel faithful are in a stage of denial. Itanium will be lucky to remain a niche product. And I must refer to the Rambus situation as a fiasco. Intel thinks they can make people buy whatever they want them to, wrong. Now Intel is left to scramble and try and paper launch an answer to Opteron. So far we have seen Prescott runs very hot, and underperfroms Northwood, which as we know gets beaten by A64 on 32 bit applications. The problem for Intel is the gap is likely to be even more in favor of AMD at 64 bits because of Hypertransport and the on chip memory controller. Intel won't have anything that can really compete with AMD until at least 12 to 18 months from now. It's going to be funny to see what the first benchmarks are going to look like for Nacona. My guess is Opteron is taking Nacona to the woodshed. All these brokers talk like AMD is in trouble now that Intel is entering X86-64. What they fail to mention is the fact that they have to play catch up, it's not like just flipping a switch and being up to speed like AMD is. Sales will tell the story as AMD revenues grow rapidly while Intel's don't. It will also be obvious as Opteron takes bigger chunks of marketshare from Xeon. And AMD will maintain the desktop crown indefinitely on either 32 or 64 bit applications since Intel won't be out with desktop X86-64 till next year going by their own statements. Time to start loading up on AMD calls for April and July.
yourbankrupcy, but 4.2G Prescott won't be available this year. Intel can't even get a 3.4G Prescott out with the C0 stepping.
It must really burn the Intel folk when they see AMD chips get better on IPC with new generations while theirs don't. I especially like these folks who post just to say DELL isn't using AMD, no kidding I say. But you can bet Intel is having to give more concessions to DELL do to AMD's pressure. This means shrinking margins at Intel. Meanwhile AMD's margins are improving. Something else of note is the improvement in Flash pricing. AMD could see significant gains in Flash the rest of this year which could propel earnings much higher than expected. I would not be suprised to see AMD come close to $1.00 EPS in Q4 of this year. If and when that happens, AMD's stock price will leave Intel's in the dust.
Intel isn't recouping Itanium costs this year. That's got to be one of the must unbelievable comments I ever heard. Because Intel is still pouring money into Itanium. Intel will likely never recoup costs on Itaniums development. Intel will be lucky to break even just on what it is spending on Itanium this year. And when you figure in fab costs and all other expenses it is unlikely. But then I forgot Intel folk don't usually like to include all the expenses in when determining what it costs to make a product.
chipguy, barret confuses 110K shipped with sold.
Everyone knows that Intel has had to give away many Itaniums just for people to take a look. In 2002 almost all 3000 shipped went to IBM and HP for free. This latest promotion with getting to test out Itanium for free for a couple months only inflates the Itanium numbers again. Bottom line is more Opteron Servers shipped in Q303 than Itanium had in the first 3 quarters of 03 according to Gartner Research. Barret 's problem is he confuses the term shipped with "given away" or "sold". Now if you go back and nail him down on it he would likeley use the term shipped to be vague and avoid getting caught in a lie. Bottom line Opteron is already more successful than Itanium, and opteron is mopping the floor with Xeon on 32 bit applications, and thanks to hypertransport, and on chip memory controller, it's likely to be an even bigger lead at 64bits. When people see how AMD beats Intel at both 32/64 bits, server buyers are going to shift to AMD. So enjoy losing money on Intel while AMD makes it's shareholders large capital gains, I am laughing all the way to the bank. By the way, AMD up 2.7% this year, INTC down 4.5%. Cha ching.
Thanks BUGGI for the Flash info EOM.
Hailmary, AMD should have the lead for at least 12 months. Intel fans think that just because Intel will offer 64bit based on X86, that ist's magically going to be better than AMD's. This is highly unlikely. First off, AMD beats Intel on most benchmarks on 32 bit applications already. Going to 64 bits for Prescott will just create larger bottlenecks as Prescott with it's 800 FSB is going to have problems keeping up with Hypertransport which is also be upgraded with version 2 which will allow even faster throughput. Throw in the on chip memory controller AMD chips have and this is just another advantage AMD holds over Intel. Now throw in the 30+ stages to Prescott's pipeline and you have Intel facing additional Latency issues. Let's also not forget the first 3 steppings of Prescott have been rediculously hot in terms of thermals. AMD was smart going to SOI, and Intel fumbled the ball on this. For Intel to move to using hypertransport, on chip memory controller, or SOI it will take significant time. AMD in my book has at least 12 months on Intel on X86 and this is likely to be one of AMD's 2 best years in it's history. AMD is going to be able to raise CPU ASP's which means more revenue and greater profitability. Throw in the fact that Flash pricesare going up and that business is also likely to be profitable going forward. Meanwhile Intel has to scramble to try and catch up with AMD, knowing that performance is key and AMD has the lead. AMD will likely be able to sell as many server chips as they can make at the price they want for the rest of this year. This means rapidly growing server marketshare which will take away from Intel's high margin Xeon business. Also look for AMD to keep taking waya high end marketshare from Intel in the desktop space as well. AMD will likely end the year between $30 and $40, quite possibly in parity with Intel, so AMD is by far the better investment over the rest of this year.
Windsock Intel gave away many Itaniums.
There was an article on the Inquirer back in October how more Opteron Servers shipped in Q303 then Itanium systems in the whole first 3 quarters of 03. I believe it was Gartner Research. This shoots holes in your theory. Everyone in the know knows Intel has been giving away Itaniums in bunches to try and get people to switch. That means they didn't sell that many. Intel just wants to make it sounnd better than it really was. Itanium is a dud and that is a fact. And as far as AMD is concerned they are ramping up volume on Opteron and A64, and if you had been paying attention you would realize AMD is rapidly taking business away from Intel in the high end of desktops, as well as the server market. Cha-ching. Oh yeah, when Intel has to start really dropping prices on their server chips Intel's margins are going to bleed, cha-ching. And a overpriced behemoth like Intel with no growth prospects is going nowhere. Cha-ching. So when AMD finishes the year up over 100%, and Intel is lucky to be up 20%, I will have one thing to say, cha-ching.
sonic, bottom line A64 beats Prescott on 32/64 bits
We already know AMD wins the vast majority of benchmarks against Prescott on 32 bit applications. It's only going to be a larger margin for AMD on 64 bits because AMD uses Hypertransport which blows away Intel's FSB, and also AMD chips have an on chip memory controller. Intel chips will have bottleneck problems compared to AMD because of these 2 factors and Intel chips will fall even further behind AMD's at 64 bits. Throw in the latency penalties for Intel Prescott's having a 30+ stage pipeline and their use of L3 cache and it only gets better for AMD at 64bits. Cha-ching.
Yeah Nacona in Q2, no chance
The first 3 steppings of Prescott were failures, and the fourth one is due out in May. How do you figure Intel will get Nacona out a month later? That's funny to think how people could actually believe that. Intel will be lucky to muster a paper launch in late June, sort of like the Paper launch of Prescott, which is still hardly available, and still is capped at 3.2G .
Xeon 64's will underperform Opteron
That's what the Intel faithful seem to forget, Xeon and Prescott both underperform Opteron and A64 on 32 bit, it is likely they will underperform even more on 64 bit because of Intel's antiquated FSB which pails in comparison to Hypertransport, which by the way is getting even faster thanks to version 2. Also AMD chips have an on chip memory controller. And the bottom line in servers is performance, and with AMD 's offerings so easily beating out Intels in the server area on benchmarks, why are businesses going to pay more for Intel products that underperform, the catch is most won't. So Intel is going to see margin pressure in the server business and AMD is going to significantly grow it's server chip revenue at Intel's expense. Intel screwed up bad with it's comments about people not being ready for 64 bit, and now they have DELL screaming at them to do something about it. 2004 is the year of AMD, and Intel must scramble just to try and and stay close on performance. Cha-ching.
tecate nancona is a non-existant product that likely won't be out till welll into the second half of this year, and even then how do you think it's going to beat Opteron without Hypertransport and an On Chip Memory Controller. Is there going to be as many stages in Nacona's pipeline? If so I doubt it will be able to muster much of a challenge to Opteron due to latency issues. Also, if Intel can't straighten out Prescott, how are they going to miraculously make Nacona work. All you can do is hope that Intel does a better job with Nancona, but hoping that it will be on par with AMD's offerings is pie in the sky. Case in point, Hypertransport 2.0. This means even faster throughput for AMD. What speed is Nacona bus going to operate at, cha-ching.
imho I sound happy, isn't that very clear
Itanium is a joke and will be lucky to sutrvive as a niche product. You also seem to forget 3 or 4 years ago when the Intel faithful where claiming Itanium would be brought to the masses, such as desktop and even notebook, boy how that was a farce. the bottom line is AMD is ramping up it's volume of A64 and Opteron which means more high end bucks going AMD's way and not Intel's. There is also the fact that AMD domiantes the benchmarks on 32 bit, if anything it will be even moreso on 64bit because Prescott has a slower bus than AMD's Hypertransport, plus AMD's on chip memory controller also is a big advantage. Intel is likely to only be further behind on 64 bit which is great for AMD. Throw in all the thermal problems Intel is having with Prescott and it shows Intel has hit a major pothole. Intel must hope the D0 stepping of Prescott is much better or AMD is going to take the high end away from Intel all together as volume ramps. As far as MSFT in Intel's pocket, dream on, MSFT is far more dominant than Intel. Case in point, MSFT told Intel that they would have to follow AMD's standard on X86-64 since they were not interested in doing multiple Operating Systems. So now your theory on Intel bossing MSFT around has been torn to shreds. I predict the Intel faithful will probably post less as the year goes on because for Intel it's not going to be pretty. For AMD there could be some very significant profits. Cha-ching Cha-ching Cha-ching.
Greg S Itanic dead long live King Opteron
The masses have spoken and Intel must ready X86-64 because AMD turned up the heat on them. That segmentation comment makes no sense. You better hope Prescott gets better because Opteron already mops the floor with it, even though there is no volume to speak of with Prescott, and Prescott runs awfully hot. AMD is turning the screws on Intel and Intel Fans are trying to spin it because the reality is they are SOL for the foreseeable future as they scramble to improve the thermals on Prescott. Intel just haing X86-64 capability doesn't mean it's going to outperform Opteron. Case in point, Opteron which is a 64 bit chip mops the floor with Xeon on 32 bit applications. You think they can flip the switch and suddenly those same Xeon chips will outperform Opteron on 64 bit, highly unlikely. The reality is that Intel's 64 bit chips are likely to underperform AMD's 64 bit chips on either 64 or 32 bit applications for the foreseeable future. Intel has a lot on their plates right now and probably bit off more than they can chew, thus Prescott being delayed by 6 months and still will horrible thermals after the C0 stepping. You better hope D0 is a lot better. cha-ching
morowwinder it means Xeon MP gets cheaper or loses share to Opteron. This time it's AMD that wields the pricing power because Opteron is clearly better than Xeon. read the Inquirer article from yesterday on why would anyone buy Xeon 4 waysystem for $8000+ more just for the CPU's.
Tecate Intel gets squeezed on Servers
That's right, look for Xeon MP to have to lower prices or AMD will eat Intel's lunch, cha ching.
Intel forced to follow AMD on X86-64
The truth is Dell and HP told Intel to get their act together or else. Itanium is not the answer businesses are looking for. Intel spent billions on Itanium and have nothing to show for it. Now Intel must try and get Prescott in order in terms of thermals and performance and 64bit so that it can compete against Opteron and A64. That price cut yesterday on Opterons is going to put pricing pressure on high end Xeons, hello shrinking server margins for Intel. I think it's hysterical how Intel management downplayed Opteron, almost like it doesn't even exist, like they are doing something ground- breaking, rather than the reality that they must follow AMD on X86-64. The answer is can they get it right, or is that why Prescott has been nothing but vaporware so far with a 4th stepping coming in May?
greg s "Intel has to follow AMD"
Get used to it because it's AMD's time now. It must burn you an the Intel Fanboys up that Intel had to loose face and follow AMD. Crow pie for all the Intel Fan boys, death of Itanium coming.
morowinder don't fret about Intel. The bottom line is AMD is going to stick it to Intel the rest of this year because Itanium is a joke and Prescott runs too hot. Nobody is going to buy one oif those Prescotts till the next stepping comes along in May. And it better have better thermals then the paper launched 3.2G version that is only slightly available now. As far as performance the A64 wins hands down. The only tasks P4 wins are at tasks that most people don't even use at work like media encoding. It's funny how Intel overweights their benchmarks towards what very few people use. AMD is putting the boots to Intel so it doesn't matter how many Prescotts Intel sells because the high end belongs to AMD other the P4EE. And Xeon is losing sales every day to Opteron, cha ching. More high end bucks going away from Intel to AMD. It's going to be a great year for AMD and it's shareholders, and the Intel scrooges are getting taken to the woodshed.
$1499 per year for 3 years isn't free, or did you forget the bit about the subscription fee. The only company that has to give server chips away is Intel with Itanium because Itanium is overpriced junk that will be lucky to survive as a niche product. I guess you just didn't understand what the term subscription fee means.
tecate nobody said that from SUNW and you know it. Desperation is setting in and you have to make things up because you have nothing left to throw at AMD. Nobody said that from Intel and the proof is that you gave no proof. I am done wasting my time on you so welcome to my ignore list.
tecate can you say rising ASP's for AMD and falling ASP's for Intel. I can and that is what is happening as AMD takes the high end from Intel. Those extra dollars help AMD exponentially while not really hurting Intel. But the botoom line is increased profitability for AMD but not Intel. And oh Yeah, rising AMD flash prices will return AMD to profitability in that segment which boosts AMD that much more. Cha-Ching.
morrowinder Prescott close to Northwood not better says article at Anand. See below an excerpt taken from the conclusion:
Final Words
The only goal of testing three different Intel 3.2 processors on the same reference motherboard was to establish benchmark results for future motherboard testing. However, it is hard not to compare the CPU performance differences in these tests. What perhaps stands out the most is that for all the negative press Prescott has received at launch, it is really a decent performer that is very close to Northwood, at least at the 3.2GHz speed.
-----------
This means it's almost as good as Northwood at 3.2G, and A64 or Athlon FX beat that so long live the king AMD.
Tenchu
It's obvious that you don't know th investing game or simple math. 100% to 200% easily beats 20%. Posting links to nonsense further illustrates my point. You are in denial so I am done wasting my breath on you because you aren't worth the effort. Welcome to my ignore list.
sgolds
So basically Intel will not see any increases in speed through May when the D0 stepping becomes available. This will allow AMD to cushion it's lead with FX-53 and A64 3700+ while Intel still can't get a functioning Prescott above 3.2G. This will definitely benefit AMD ASP's during that time frame which should help in Q2 which is typically the weakest for CPU. Till then Northwood EE is the stopgap Intel has for AMD's lead. The Intel folks won't be happy, but it works for me. thanks for the post/link.
Tenchu, I just listed Intel's delays and failures of late which are well known. yet you can't seem to deal with the fact that AMD has the advantage and is already benefiting from it. Tell me how Prescott is going to magically overcome the thermal issues and performance problems. The higher the clockspeed, the worse the thermals are going to get and the more motherboard makers are going to have to do further redesigns. This will create major problems in getting product out. That's why Northwood has been extended to 3.4G or had you frogotten. Prescott is very late, February 2004 instead of October 2003, and there is very limited availability. Throw in the fact that you can't get your hands on a Prescott higher than 3.2G which underperforms the same speed Northwood and you have major problems. That talk about rising tides lift's all boats, well I would rather be in AMD and see my stock price double or triple this year than have Intel and be lucky to see a 20% increase over the $32.05 YE03 price of Intel. It is obvious I understand the investing game but you don't. So I will double or triple my money this year while you get your 20%. Somehow I don't understand how you think 20% is greater than 100% to 200%. Are you using some new kind of math?
Duke of Earl Itanium will never recoup costs, Opteron will. You seem to try to talk about Xeon but you fail to address the failure that is Itanium, or as I like to refer to it, "The pipe dream scheme". The Pipe Dream Scheme involved Intel putting AMD out of business by bringing Itanium to the masses, away from X86. This has not happened and will not happen and now Intel is left to have to chase AMD on X86-64. As far as 75 biilion is concerned I think you need to revist your numbers or clarify how many years you are talking about because that number is laughable. he big iron market is high end servers and there are not 75 billion a year spent on high end servers. Itanium is a niche product that will never recoup costs and never will generate a billion in a year of revenue. So it appears you are the one who likes stretching the truth and maybe your name should be DukeofIntelFanBoys. And I sincerly mean that.