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Thursday, February 19, 2004 2:03:26 PM
The Intel faithful are in a stage of denial. Itanium will be lucky to remain a niche product. And I must refer to the Rambus situation as a fiasco. Intel thinks they can make people buy whatever they want them to, wrong. Now Intel is left to scramble and try and paper launch an answer to Opteron. So far we have seen Prescott runs very hot, and underperfroms Northwood, which as we know gets beaten by A64 on 32 bit applications. The problem for Intel is the gap is likely to be even more in favor of AMD at 64 bits because of Hypertransport and the on chip memory controller. Intel won't have anything that can really compete with AMD until at least 12 to 18 months from now. It's going to be funny to see what the first benchmarks are going to look like for Nacona. My guess is Opteron is taking Nacona to the woodshed. All these brokers talk like AMD is in trouble now that Intel is entering X86-64. What they fail to mention is the fact that they have to play catch up, it's not like just flipping a switch and being up to speed like AMD is. Sales will tell the story as AMD revenues grow rapidly while Intel's don't. It will also be obvious as Opteron takes bigger chunks of marketshare from Xeon. And AMD will maintain the desktop crown indefinitely on either 32 or 64 bit applications since Intel won't be out with desktop X86-64 till next year going by their own statements. Time to start loading up on AMD calls for April and July.
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