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Re: BUGGI1000 post# 26996

Monday, 02/23/2004 11:06:20 AM

Monday, February 23, 2004 11:06:20 AM

Post# of 97565
BUGGI1000 UBS and most of the other analysts are just playine games trying to knock the stock down, because if UBS believe their stated theories on Flash and CPU's they are really stupid. Those of us who know what's happening know that Intel's first 64 bit Xeon Nacona is likely to underpeform AMD's chip rather significantly because they are not as far along on their X86-64. Granted Intel should have something on par with Opteron in 12 to 18 months, but till then AMD is going to pick up server share, because they have much greater support from Sun and IBM, as well as Fujitsu. Businesses buying servers will see Intel's initial offering (Nacona) and how it will likely lose out on 64 bit benchmarks by even a larger margin than 32 bit applications, and this will make AMD that much more appealing. I really don't expect Intel to have anything competitive on the CPU front in Servers or Desktops for 12 to 18 months. Now UBS talked about Intel using 90NM in Flash to get back share from AMD, I don't see that happening because Intel has been loosing money on Flash as well, And we know Intel was the first one who tried to raise prices on Flash last year. The bottom line is Intel can't control pricing and squeeze AMD when AMD is the performance leader. I don't see Intel being able to regain the performance lead till at least next year so what UBS says is meaningless, and it will be funny to see if they pull a Merrill Lynch and are buying at these levels.
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