Is throwing matches into plato's cave.
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when is the PEA expected? eom
relax guys. We got what we wanted.
DG shouted settlement for 3 years now, and you have to credit that he was right. It is still in flux till approved...
- cancelation is off the table
- we get 95% of reorg (30% to commons)
- we get 1.4bn assets
- we get the Boli/coli
- we get the NOL
be patient, it may be a long wait to see dg's numbers but it will probably come through the NOL and the LT Trust.
Important now is that commons get not more diluted by DIME
and remember: Sargent also said some details are still unclear. In this WAMU case, details usually amount to millions.
satisfaction is relative. it does not necessarily mean face value.
I also doubt that the May deal left prefs out in cold, if it is that the article seems to imply.
I think we are talking bones here: big dogs (pref) get larger bones than small dogs (commons). We are not saying big dog gets nothing, while small dog gets sth..
Whatever gonna happen Monday or on the 22nd. Equity will get sth., and that is more than nothing. And it will be distributed fair, meaning prefs will probably see higher overall return than commons.
If no return for either equity class is part of the deal, i dont see a new DS coming.
that statement is a WAG. the report just reiterates what we hear for 3 years now.
In may the settlement announcement drove commons to 0.16. That was before we had colorable claims acknowledged and the SNHs prosecution motion granted/stayed.
It is illogical to expect a lower offer than the may offer. It is not impossible, but illogical since disgorgement/disallowance is in play now, gun powder we didnt have in may.
forget reuters they are not into the case as people here are. In most of the time those news are just one new sentence, while the rest is copy&paste out of old news.
Peg claimed today that 7 billion prefs will fight tooth and nail to keep commons from reaching anything before they are satisfied. It does not even address the difference between TPS and Prefs, that probably TPS denied the last deal, that DIME is still out there etc... What i want to say is dont take Reuters or any other news serious unless it really adresses the complexity of the issues at state here. The rest is dust in one's eyes...
2 Week DELAY!
12 millions as stated in the EC objection
Just recall our history here:
sept 08 BK
march 09 lowest pps
dec 09 - mar 10 settlement speculation
delay examiner requested, denied, seal motion, delay by extension
july 10 examiner
Dec 10 1st conf
Jan 11 denied
wrap wrap
Mar 11 IT claim
may 11 to june 11 settlement talks with up to 3 delays for depos
july 11 2nd conf
sept 11 denied
oct 11 mediation
2 delays so far
my point is that the more delays the better for EC so far. Last time the delays of the depositions lead to a settlment that finally imploded, but was at least announced.
This time I expect one more delay max. No press announcement but in the end a settlement presented in court (whatever that's gonna look like)
And last but not least: Due to Rosen's statement that we have to exit BK as soon as possible in 2012, I think this time we will see a turbo confirmation hearing if a settlement is in place that everybody is ok with.
ok thanks! so no new order equals no new parties, roger that.
the appeals issue settlement is speculation so far so we can rule that out too.
Any guess why Aurelius specifically asked for JPM/FDIC to be a party?
and since i got your attention now, i need your help understanding the recent MOR (if you can help me that) It states
Assets 6,7 bill + 0,9 bil WMi Investments
(is the 4b. deposit here included already? please give me your insight cause nobody seem to can answer that for me)
Liabilities 7,9 bil.
thanks in advance
thanks Catz, good points.However, despite what it may seem from my previous post, I still think from a neutral perspective one can not deny the possibility of info either being leaked to parties outside mediation or that one party may act as a proxy for a party that is not directly involved. Both would lead indirectly to participation of those parties. I may be wrong here, but as we heard last hearing the mediator decides who is up when. He then informs the debtor.
The point of my first question still is not clear to me. Do mediation rules require that it has to be disclosed, or not? Is it the rules of this case or is a there general mediation code in bk law?
(sorry, overseas shareholder with very different judical background, mainly int. law, thats why I ask)
If a settlement is reached, i think it will lead to a slight change of the GSA. If so it might affect JPM/FDIC. I remember Aurelius specifically asking the judge to include them, because they wanted to avoid parties to overthrow the deal in the aftermath of mediation. Aurelius reason may have been egoistic ones, but still they imply that any deal reached will affect those parties that are outside of mediation and it implies that they will have a say in one way or the other.
Additionaly, if the appeals issue is touched upon in mediation it probably requires the inclusion of JPM/FDIC at a later stage, since they are parties to the GSA as well, and may have an interest to keep the F&R ruling alive.
just some thoughts
EDIT in bold
Catz, would the judge or mediator have to disclose to the public if any new parties enters mediation?
I think due to negociation strategy issues the mediator might involve JPM and FDIC as soon as he deems it necessary (a door that was actually left intentionally open by the judge when she stated JPM and FDIC not part of mediation "not at this time", probably meaning not the first round.)
Its third quarter now, i guess substitutions were made...
anybody any info on that pls?
man IP must be worth something
http://wamutheater.com/
they even use the wamu logo.
AEG Live, one of the world's largest live entertainment companies, and Seattle-based First & Goal Inc.
Rosen spoiled it:
"equity left the settlement, even though 3rd curcuit does not allow gifting anything to commons"
in the PR they said they tried hard to give sth to commons
Folse stated, that it was not the EC but the debtors that crushed the deal by changing it.
ergo, absolute priority rule was already used flexibly in the first settlement deal. I think now it will go on from there probably giving more to equity, both Prefs and commons.
EDIT
Yet AKIN Gump said that he sees now way that commons will see anything
1,7 x 10 = 17 billion
i think commons will get something, and that sth is in the 2-4 $ range, either as cash or stock in WMRRC
fasten seatbelt... fall/winter 2009 2010 seems to be repeating
lots of volume the last days
come on ENZR you should give us the news we are waiting for...
another pattern I noticed. The 2 listing loth started with a drop, then a consolidation and later a nice run
i think this is the absolute bottom...
we've seen ENZR aka URST going to the 0.55 0.70 range from here...
let's see what this fall/winter brings
the 2,6 out of the 5,8 as stated in the GSA.
my premise is that we are part of GSA in the next round
according to the MOR they are not part of the assets stated.
according to MOR
we have 6,724 bill assets.
of those:
4,5 are the deposits
1,4 investment in subs
0,475 income tax
plus some minor other assets
"Under the settlement, Washington Mutual will establish a liquidating trust that will distribute about $7 billion to creditors, including about $4 billion of previously disputed funds on deposit with JPMorgan.
That $7 billion includes about $2.6 billion that will come from tax refunds. JPMorgan is expected to get about $2.4 billion in tax refunds under the settlement."
includes? not according to MOR that is my question
oh must have missed that in the opinion.
but even without NOL. Tax returns bring equity in the money according to MOR with FJR applied?
(check my answer to Catz)
yes true. I know. i did this just to show the potential value we have right now at our disposal if we are to get the newCO.
thats why i put the * on the $ numbers. noting that it might be shares not cash.
As you surely also noted i didnt include equitable disallowance into the equation, yet.
I just wanted to offer that for discussion since
a) with the tax refund equity is in the money by 1,6 bill.
b) potential further value is present through the NOLS
c) even more value is there from JPM/HFs/FDIC/clawback in negotiations.
now my question... to you in particular actually
is the calculation for a) correct? or did i do sth wrong somewhere?
Some math
correct me if i am wrong...
Assets MOR JULY 2011:
6724 mio.
Liabilities MOR JULY 2011:
8397 mio.
----------------
6724
-8397
-------
= - 1673 million
+ 750million FJR ruling
= -923 million
---------
+ 2600 million Tax returns
= 1677 million
---------
+ 5500 NOLs + 100 million more value WMMRC
= 7277 million
----------------
Prefs paid full (TPS out) means commons get = 3,6 bill. or 2,11$*
Prefs and TPS paid almost full, commons out of the money by 223 million.*
Now how to get some more value for commons if TPS is not taken care of by JPM ....?
full tax returns
+ 3000 miilion
full
boli/coli
+ 5000 million
etc...
one of those and everybody gets good value. Prefs and TPS made full and ....
with taxes commons get 1,63 $*
with boli commons get 2,81 $*
with both commons get 4,57 $*
* Note cash or stock in new CO
I might add:
"Because the Court is denying confirmation for other reasons,
and directing the parties to mediation..."
We can say for sure it was not IT that killed the plan. IMO IT just brings in more value for equity. It seems to me that the judge would have killed the plan anyway, because of releases or undervaluation of WMMRC or because creditors are getting more than they should.
What is crucial is that she is not really stating 100% clear what brought down the plan. That might add leverage to EC's position, although my pick would be the releases.
Well after crosschecking the opinion again.
There are only two mentions of mediation
"Because the Court is denying confirmation for other reasons,
and directing the parties to mediation, the Court suggests that
the parties consider a means to avoid negative tax consequences
to creditors." 101-102
and
"Therefore, before the Equity Committee proceeds with its
claim any further, the Court will direct that the parties go to
mediation on this issue, as well as the issues that remain an impediment to confirmation of any plan of reorganization in this
case." 139
IMO this means all the parties. And it means more than IT, since she states " as well as the issues that remain an impediment" (Releases, stock/NOLs distribution in newCO, maybe Role of TPS (the reason for POR7 imploding) etc...)
in the order she also states ALL PARTIES.
To me it looks like this:
Judge says,look, i keep GSA intact if you guys find a solution that pays everybody. Otherwise EC action will start probably bringing down the GSA and not just the plan. Also TPS is on the horizon so be quick.
what you guys think are the chances for my 3 scenarios?
any WAG?
I'd say
1) 40%
2) 55%
3) 5%
thanks Catz! not eom
i listened in during the closing and I had the same impression about the arguments and the facts being offered by both sides.
I have relistened to many parts (sometimes 4-5 times, like Art) to get every detail straight. What i lacked was a summary by someone present. Someone that can put the voice and sound into context.
Incredible thanks for that!
On the basis of both i see two scenarios and one very unlikely possibility.
Scenario 1: (best case)
Plan and GSA denied, Hedgies ousted, EC prosecution allowed...
(basically meaning the Debtors are out of the game, EC runs show)
Scenario 2: (JPM's wish)
Plan and GSA approved, some claims removed though. Hedgies ousted and EC gets to them in other court.
Possibility (unlikely or unexplainable)
Plan and GSA approved. IT allegations denied.
Art's rhetoric skills match his first name:
- "Debtors shoot themselves in the foot"
- "If i was a shareholder i'd throw up at such statement"
- "Gifting stuff to JPM for no value"
wow! He is gonna carry it home for us pals!
Parker gave them a bloody nose and Art is really sending them to the emergency room.
timeline:
written closing argument due 3rd August
oral arguments 15th August hearing
opinion/ruling probably end august/sept.
in between TPS will issue 10p. summary on PSI report / Debtors will reply
debtor and CC will also reply to EC motion to prosecute claims
do you remember at what time in the hearing she said it...?
after 7 days of listening the level of concentration was not permanently high. If you have the exact time on today's hearing mp3 or remember in which section she talked about releases please point me to that point in time.
i think Ed sargent. He did the depo and said he will need 1.30h max.
1:30 pm
omg... not even one word about Aurelius nailing JPM and debtor.
only the stupid info about soundproof office. Reminds me of smart bombs that dont kill civilians....or santa claus.
Please somebody email that donkey journalist, that GSA got smashed, EC now nailing Aurelius Goofy and that Aurelius employees suffer from amnesia.
I hate journalists. Bought and manipulative it seems.
And they will give an UPDATE 1 hours later adding nothing of substance.
Only:
"Counsel for WMI did not return a call."
"TIVO did not record hearing...."
we knew it all along...
JPM is getting paid twice for WAMU. First with assets and then with additional cash. And they have the balls to state in their objection their contribute 7B to the 7B settlement.
I remember a TPS lawyer in late 2010 stating:
"it is easy to settle with other peoples' money"
If this BK does not end well for commons as well, i dont know which BK could...
the fun part is that aurelius actually is relitigating the GSA sth we are supposed to be barred from according to the hedge funds.
aurelius actually helps our case with critizing JPM's stance on the litigation and negotiation.
6.5B transfers
5.8B tax refunds
4B deposits
WAKE UP Walrath
thank you... these NOL issues sure are fuzzy.
EC probably needs to convince that 382 tax rule is better than 269 (and that IRC wont bite) and that financing/fund raising/capital injection to WMRCC is not that far fetched to ultilize the possble larger NOL ranging from 10-23 billon
dude sometimes posting less is more
can you elaborate? or post excerpt later. listening in for hours i missed that
it was december and judge's "no" saved christmas, although her "fair and resonable" created some black snow.
draging her opinion till january brought the 2010 NOLs into the estate, so lets hope she serves us as good this time as well.
think about it ppl.
2.5 years we are considered an "out of the money" party.
suddently we are offered a NewCo that might be able to utilize billions of tax breaks/NOLs/ cough up hidden assets etc..
now they actually believe they can start over again, selling us the old story we are completly worthless. Thats nuts! The first settlement talks mark a point of no return. Seems EC had enough leverage to to force them in the first place. So dont worry all we see on docket now is misinformation and sabre-rattling before a real solution will be drafted.
"If the towel goes down you see who is not wearing a bathing-suit" (Warren Buffet)
And boy i tell ya, we are there in diving gear.
L2 pls anybody!? man, if I recall correctly 1 year ago on this day i was stil licking my 3/12 wounds...
one has to figure: hoffman, UIE and Nate saved us. The EC used them all as diversion front and seems to have made the final kill by going after the weakest link in the GSA.
beware tho, these crooks of Weil are capable for another 3/12 anytime.