acmefirewoodis...(put something here)
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It's quite possible that the share price could go below a nickel before the end of January.
Gerald will get the cash he needs. The share price is irrelevant to the extent that the lower the share price the greater the dilution.
Anyone thinking of buying additional shares may want to wait until more is known about where Gerald will obtain the needed funds.
Patience is a virtue.
p.s. Any talk of the company up-listing without a reverse split is ludicrous. IMHO.
I think your assessment is pretty much on target.
If the LymPro data isn't substantially better than I expect it to be I expect the share price will drop towards the .05 range.
Questionable LymPro data and the impending dilution for the ESS deal will take it there.
Waiting to see if Gerald can pull it off.
p.s. Best place to hide the financing/dilution p.r. was Christmas eve.
Added more shares today at $16.80.
At or near the bottom. IMHO.
It seems to me Gerald issued the "LymPro launch" press release without having the final data available and not knowing which version(s) of the test would be used. Then the company announces additional financing/dilution after the close on Wednesday.
Appears that Gerald was trying to "hoodwink" the market.
Just saying!!!
Expecting JDST to hit $50 within three months.
The Fed is going to raise sooner than expected.
IMHO.
p.s. Merry Christmas to everyone!!!
Amarantus Receives Orphan Drug Designation for MANF in Retinitis Pigmentosa
http://bionapcfa.blogspot.com
From the article:
Companies that are marketing drugs targeting ocular diseases include Regeneron, Sanofi, Novartis/Alcon, Pfizer, Roche, Bayer, and Santen. We believe any one of these companies may be interested in an early-stage research collaboration with Amarantus around MANF. Beyond Orphan indications, MANF may also show utility in Glaucoma. Glaucoma affects approximately 4 million people in the U.S. alone. It's a $3 billion market. Data presented at AVRO and TOD provide the basis for moving MANF into human clinical studies in 2015. This creates a very interesting development pathway for Amarantus and a potential development partner - i.e. secure market exclusivity and aggressive pricing with Orphan Drug indications such as RP and RAO, then expand the approval to blockbuster markets like Glaucoma.
The company is currently wrapping up translational development and preclinical toxicology work on MANF prior to filing the first investigational new drug (IND) application to being human clinical studies next year. If Phase 1 clinical studies go well with MANF in RP, we expect the company to expand research into new indications and seek a larger development and commercialization partner that would come with a handsome upfront payment and backend milestones and royalties.
F.D.A. approves O.D.D. for "MANF" for Retinitis Pigmentosa:
http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/opdlisting/oopd/OOPD_Results_2.cfm?Index_Number=457514
After today's press release which was designed to notify the market that LymPro is launched except for not having the final data and not knowing which version of the test will be used I'm more confident than ever that the share price will go below .06.
I think anyone buying here thinking they're going to miss a major move higher is grossly mistaken.
Gerald blew another opportunity. To those that continually defend Gerald after each subsequent screw-up I can only say "Get A Clue"!!!
Anyone who was anticipating a major media campaign to accompany the LymPro launch just observed how well the company is prepared based on today's press release.
Pathetic!!!
On January 12 of this year the share price was .12. It's currently at .0795. Congrats on holding through the down trend.
You have to admit that wasting the "LymPro launch press release" this week without having the final data and not knowing which version of the test will be used was another "Gerald's stupid moment moves".
Makes Gerald and the company look unprepared and a bit incompetent.
Please provide a rational case for defending today's news. I'd like to hear one.
The market is tiring of "puff" press releases.
How can the company launch LymPro without the final data and still not knowing which test will be used?
Appeared Gerald was desperate and wanted to "lock in" the LymPro launch bonus.
Buy below .06 in January.
p.s. The situation is getting worse instead of better. How pathetic.
Another "puff" press release that doesn't say anything. Nothing has changed:
LymPro is the only Alzheimer's blood diagnostic with two independent peer-reviewed published articles (Stieler et al, NeuroReport, 2001 and Stieler et al, Neurobiology of Aging 2012). Amarantus announced further replication of this original work in October 2014, when the company reported interim data demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity in identifying Alzheimer's vs. non-Alzheimer's under two separate assay conditions. Amarantus anticipates reporting final top-line data of its LP-002 clinical study to assess LymPro's predictive value in diagnosing mild to severe Alzheimer's disease patients by the end of 2014. Amarantus intends to publish data from this study, as well as previously reported data, at prestigious scientific congresses and in peer-reviewed journals throughout the course of 2015. This additional data will then be useful in making a determination regarding which version of LymPro (Version 1 or Version 2) Amarantus will launch under the CLIA designation for marketing to the broader medical community in the United States in 2015.
It's unfortunate that there are so many posters here and on the other stock boards that claim to have a substantial number of shares (many in the millions) of share purchased less than a nickel who claim they have never sold a single share because they believe in Gerald and the long term success of the company.
It's unfortunate that they missed out the opportunity for 300-800% profits on their investment if they had sold on some of the runs and bought back in at a substantially lower price.
Now it's quite likely that an investor buying in January will obtain the same level of future gains as the long term shareholders and not have incurred the opportunity cost of holding shares for two to three years. Such is the land of penny stocks.
If traders can make 5-10% by holding a stock for a day or two they are perfectly content to so so because they can repeat the process several hundred times in a year in one stock or thousand of times over multiple stocks.
The leveraged gold stocks are currently making runs of 15-25% a day.
There was a time when the stock was below a nickel that I thought it could go to .40-.50 in six months based on Gerald's statements. Reality and dilution pretty much put a damper on that happening.
Best of luck with AMBS. I hope my assessment is incorrect but with Gerald selling shares at eight cents I just don't see the upside any time soon.
p.s. Didn't International Infusion previously obtain 66,000,000 shares from AMBS at .0285/share? Just asking.
I expect a 1:100 reverse split to be announced in 2H2015 with the share price in the .08 range. I expect the number of shares "in play" by then will be in the 1.4 billion range or higher.
I would think that AMBS would start trading on the NASDAQ in the $6.50-$7.00 range and then move higher or lower due to current catalysts.
Obviously no one, including Gerald, knows where the stock price will be in six to eight months.
On January 12 of this year the share price was above .12. It currently is at .078 having hit a high of .198.
The only thing certain is that the dilution will continue and that Gerald will do whatever is needed to obtain the cash to keep the company operating without regards to how it affects the existing shareholders. Remember as C.E.O. and Chairman of the Board Gerald can award himself free or cheap shares pretty much at he desires. The 2014 Stock Plan allocated over 153,000,000 shares that could be used for that purpose.
Selling 70,000,000 shares to Lincoln Park Capital at .05/share will give Gerald the $3,500,000 needed for the ESS deal.
More shares will have to be sold to raise operating capital.
Gerald has enough shares to fund the company over the next twelve months. I expect he'll use all of the additional one billion shares over the next 12-14 months.
It wouldn't surprise me to see $NUGT end the week back above $17.00.
As always the market will tell us who was correct in their call for a higher or lower share price.
Gerald needs a lot of cash over the next two months and I see L.P.C. as the only source currently available. If that doesn't change I expect the share price will be below .065 by the middle of January if not sooner.
The company's operating loss was almost $4.5M in the third quarter and I expect a greater loss in the 4th quarter which could mean more than a $10M operating loss for the last six months with the "cash burn rate" expected to increase in 1H2015. How much cash will the company need?
Interesting months ahead.
Best of luck to everyone and I hope you make a lot of money with your AMBS investment.
p.s. It becomes more evident every day why Gerald needed the additional one billion shares.
Note: I just found this new site:
https://www.twitteraudit.com/
Checkout: @AmarantusBio
"Green" week ahead for $ABX.
"Krugman Says Fed Is Unlikely to Raise Interest Rates in 2015"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-14/krugman-says-fed-is-unlikely-to-raise-interest-rates-in-2015.html
"Oil Prices Go Down, Russia's Gold Buying Goes Up"
http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/12/13/370339610/oil-prices-go-down-russias-gold-buying-goes-up?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social
Buy a few shares of $ABX before the Fed meeting. It's going higher this week.
"Krugman Says Fed Is Unlikely to Raise Interest Rates in 2015"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-14/krugman-says-fed-is-unlikely-to-raise-interest-rates-in-2015.html
"Oil Prices Go Down, Russia's Gold Buying Goes Up"
http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/12/13/370339610/oil-prices-go-down-russias-gold-buying-goes-up?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social
Buy a few shares of $JNUG before the Fed meeting. It's going higher this week.
"Krugman Says Fed Is Unlikely to Raise Interest Rates in 2015"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-14/krugman-says-fed-is-unlikely-to-raise-interest-rates-in-2015.html
Buy a few shares of "NUGT" before this week's meeting. It's oversold here.
Why The Share Price Is Headed To A Nickel - IMHO
The company's operating loss was about $4.5M in the 3rd quarter. I expect a similar number for the 4th quarter.
L.P.C. knows that they will soon have to buy possibly $5-$7M worth of AMBS shares at a price equal to the closing price at the time of the purchase. They are still obligated to purchase about $17M worth of AMBS shares. The lowest price that they can purchase is .04.
If the share price is .07 at the time of their next purchase L.P.C. could be purchasing 100,000,000 shares. If the share price is .05 they could obtain 140,000,000 shares. In either case they still know that at some point in the future they're still obligated to purchase more shares beyond the next purchase.
Obviously L.P.C.'s long term goal is to obtain as many shares as possible for their $17,000,000.
I would expect that L.P.C. will make every effort to have the share price as low as possible prior to their next buy. It would be very easy for L.P.C. through an affiliate to sell/short the share price lower which they could easily accomplish considering the current low daily trading volume.
Gerald's primary goal as C.E.O. is to insure that the company has sufficient cash to continue operating. The deal with L.P.C. has assured him of an additional $17,000,000 and I think that he isn't concerned about the accompanying dilution that will occur as long as the company continues to operate.
I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a 1:100 reverse split to up-list at some time in 2015.
If this scenario is different from that which actually happens then so be it. I'll be watching from the sidelines
States in her "bio" that "She is also the publisher of ZephyrScope, a weekly report that distills global investment activity in the life sciences into actionable information."
If you go to the site you find that nothing has been published. Very interesting.
http://zephyrscope.blogspot.com/
p.s. Why not be the first to sign up.
I'm Out
Sold my last 155,000 shares today.
Expecting too much dilution over the next 2-3 months which I think will take the share price back to the .05 range.
Best of luck to everyone here. I hope I'm wrong and all of you make a nice profit.
Do you recall Gerald's tweet to Adam on July 17:
Gerald Commissiong ?@G_Commish
@adamfeuerstein Why don't you come to #C4CT, sit down with management & advisors. You can make informed decision with fact. We're ready now
Fortunately Adam chose not to accept Gerald's invite because it subsequently became obvious that the company wasn't ready then.
Best to "let sleeping dogs lie".
From the following Twitter "tweets" it's obvious that A. F. doesn't care for Rubinfeld but I was surprised that Napadano wasn't more supportive:
BiotechWill ?@BiotechWill
Joseph Rubenfield joining the $AMBS board was a very nice move. The co-founder of Amgen brings a lot to the table.
Adam Feuerstein ?@adamfeuerstein
@BiotechWill Um... Joe Rubenfield is the kiss of death. He leaves a wake of destruction. Huge red flag for $AMBS.
Jason Napodano, CFA ?@JNapodano
@adamfeuerstein @biotechwill I don't think its a "red flat" but he did zero productivity for RGIN with ESS, so can't believe he helps AMBS.
Adam Feuerstein ?@adamfeuerstein
@JNapodano @biotechwill Just offering some historical perspective. Use the Google to look at small-cap cos. associated w Rubinfeld.
Jason Napodano, CFA ?@JNapodano
@adamfeuerstein Fair points. @biotechwill
Obviously the LymPro data and the sell of additional shares to raise the $10-$15M that will be needed for the ESS acquisition will also impact the share price.
Until the information is known no one can be certain where the share price will be in two months.
Place your bets.
You posted "at a $700k/mo + burn rate".
Didn't the company incur an operating loss of over $4,300,000 in the last quarter?
Wouldn't that be a "burn rate" of over $1.4M/month?
Just asking.
p.s. I'm not an accountant and have never been really good with numbers so please excuse any ignorance that the question might convey.
Note; You are aware that Gerald's stated goal is to minimize dilution and preserve shareholder's value. One of the ways to accomplish this is to obtain grant funding which the company continues to pursue.
I think you are correct that the LymPro data "could" take the share price lower if it's not any better than the previous data.
If that happens I think the share price will bottom in the .06 range and stay there in lieu of the anticipated dilution to raise cash for the ESS acquisition. It won't be a "buy on the dip" opportunity.
The next catalyst will be the F.D.A. decision on the O.D.D. for MANF for Retinitis Pigmentosa. If the share price is in the .065 range a positive decision could bounce it back towards the .095 range. A request for more information takes the share price to the .05-.055 range.
The LymPro data starts everything in motion.
The next three weeks should be very interesting as "tax loss" selling may be a factor. There are millions of shares being held from the last run-up that could potentially be sold now to take advantage of the tax loss and re-purchased in January at a lower price especially for anyone who paid .11 or more for their shares.
Excellent sources of information regarding the F.D.A.'s O.D.D. program:
http://www.irdirc.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Katherine-Needleman.pdf
http://www.fda.gov/ForIndustry/DevelopingProductsforRareDiseasesConditions/default.htm
Let's hope Gerald has some "substantive" news today.
If not I expect the share price will be retesting .073 before the close today or tomorrow.
p.s. I have no control over the share price.
I'm waiting for the F.D.A.'s decision on the O.D.D. for MANF for Retinitis Pigmentosa to determine if I continue to hold my shares.
Yes = .12 -.15
Requests additional info = .06 or lower
The dilution continues to be a major concern. I expect Gerald will eventually use all two billion shares.
Good luck in the market.
I don't think it was a coincidence that the company just happened to open its European office in the same location that Roche is headquartered.
"Best Wishes for A Happy Thanksgiving To Everyone"
Looking forward to a very Merry Christmas.
Expecting the share price to be above .15 by then.
Have a great day!!!
p.s. Too many new retail investors arriving every day for the sellers/flippers to create significant downward pressure. Every new contact that is made in an attempt to market LymPro to drug companies creates potential new retail investors.The word is getting out about the company and its potential.
Everyone wants a cheaper price.
Don't be on the sidelines when this bounces 50%.
Napadano says it's worth .20 but I think he's underestimating the value that the O.D.D. for MANF for R.P. will create.
Market is overlooking Gerald's "Ace In the Hole":
F.D.A. granting the O.D.D. for MANF for Retinitis Pigmentosa.
I expect it will happen and AMBS will ink a development deal that will yield a substantial up-front cash payment and put "MANF" on the bio-tech map.
Stay tuned for news.
Twitter: @AmarantusBio .... 10,200 followers.
p.s. If someone wants to sell shares for under eight cent there will be buyers. Possibly Gerald will be one of them as under eight cents is better than .086.
Support for Swiss gold referendum proposal weakens as campaign heats up
* Support for gold proposal slips to 38 pct from 44 pct in Oct
* Opposition at 47 pct, up from 39 pct in Oct poll
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102199693#.
Back above $20.00 by Friday.
"Sell gold, brace for tanking oil, and a rocky ride for stocks in 2015"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sell-gold-brace-for-tanking-oil-and-a-rocky-ride-for-stocks-in-2015-2014-11-13?siteid=yhoof2
"Sell gold, brace for tanking oil, and a rocky ride for stocks in 2015"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sell-gold-brace-for-tanking-oil-and-a-rocky-ride-for-stocks-in-2015-2014-11-13?siteid=yhoof2
"Sell gold, brace for tanking oil, and a rocky ride for stocks in 2015"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sell-gold-brace-for-tanking-oil-and-a-rocky-ride-for-stocks-in-2015-2014-11-13?siteid=yhoof2