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Des90,
That is just about the best insight I have heard regarding this case yet! Again, I do hope that there have not been road blocks or dead falls set up for this exact type of investigation (Rosen n SS are the type who played the chess game so many times they can see the whole board 15 moves ahead) Do not count out the the angles we don't see, there are many and the one that worries me most is the political risk in regards to the outcome of this BK. Who knows who is behind that curtain? JMO
JT, the trust but verify thing, naahh not me. I grew up n live in NY, I trust nothing but my long time friends and my fam. Show me some numbers n I trust 1+1=2 thats it. you are correct though, the vol wont lie, more important than the price is the vol. I really hope SS ended this in that sealed Doc or really has the smoker cause I wish mr UST the best but something not right here. He leaves now?!?!?!? ahhhhh, i feel like Wiley Coyote after he hits the canyon floor, then looks up and gets smashed by the 50 ton bolder following him down. Just fkl;djkgjking weird!
Maybe Mr UST didnt leave in the middle of the case maybe he did see it through and the case is done just no one knows about it yet. What would he say " ya I am leaving now cause the case is over, congrats"!! probably too thin but hey I have heard crazier here.
Hi OIL thanks, !!!! I have been here watching and when I have 2 cents i throw it in. The realitly is we need a cusip change. !!! That is hhow we will see who is swimming naked when the tide goes down. It will be hard to find via paper trail. jmho thanks again OOIL stay stron bro PS no PM sorry
OK, so what I have been thinking is this. taking some major assumptions into consideration, if JPM was in dire straits when the credit crashed happened ie. wamu take down (and many others) considering the roomers of aprox $15 trillion or so in derivatives and all sorts of mort backed securities (JPM exposure to the market)as we know they were to some extent, what would you do as a CEO/BOD? great, work this deal, "take it all (WAMU) and make them fight us for it." We have no liquidity and we are on verge of being insolvent! JPM was circling the wagons, taking back collatereal from everywhere they could call it in to sure themselves up. They probably could do the Bear Sterns deal at 2 but was tougher to swallow for them at 10, being a great d3eal anyway they swallowed. So now JPM can sit and stall and wait and stall while they recapitalize. Even I knew It was just time before the market went back up but if you weren't liq and didn't have TIME you could be 1. not taking advantage of the asset fire sale or 2. broke because you have the exposure and at some point you will be deemed insolvent. I am not sure if anyone watched the CNBC 1hr spec on "Leamann Last Days".The guy who portrays Hank Paulson (dont know his name but familiar and good actor) he walks into the board meeting when all the ceos are called to the Treasury on like a Fri at 5 pm. The CEO's of all the top banks and Inv banks are their except Dick Fuld. Paulson walks in and all the CEOs are chatting, Paulson sits down and the first thing he says to them to get their undivided attention was thier is no money for Leamann. Monday morning open of Japan markets they will file bankruptcy! Dimon has a kanipshiat cause they have big exposure to them. Paulson, to shut Dimon up says "THE WEST IS DONE, ITS OVER, YOU WANNA CALL IT A GAME.. THIS IS THE GAME.... THE DOLLAR IS GONNA GO!" JPM needed the time to recapitalize but had no money or was deliriously short on it, so they take WAMU and give it to Dimon knowing this will take time to sort out. That is exactly what everyone needed, time and money. WAMU got them that and now confidence is back and they had some tremendous earnings to prove that. They had a choice, possibly go under (25B tarp money was a drop in the bucket, they needed much more, but just for a little time, just to build confidence and make it look like they didn't need it. My guess is Dimon did pull wool over FDIC, JPM knew exactly what they were doing with the FDIC and scared the hell outta them. JPM had an unbiased view from studying their portfolio's and wamus books to make a offer to buy them months ago, they knew exactly what they were worth. How it will end up I really don't wanna say. Its a big fight (DAVE N GOLIATH type fight.) I like the odds but I was always a grand slam // underdawg type personality. My gut is they play partially nice in the end, everyone gets whole and commons get a bit they can live with. HEADLINE will be JPM REVALUES WAMU ASSETS AT 20B, REORG IS DONE! Stock halts the $s end up in the accounts (commons canceled) and unless you do the math, nobody will bat an eye lash at the $/shr. 20B is fictitious number. Dont know what the number is but either does anyone else. I think the examiner will find enough to let the judge throw out the POR and SS will bring strong argument to possible damages, they will want this outta bankruptcy and find buyer for the left overs of WAMU or JPM?FDIC will anti up some to take it whole and move on. JUST MORE SPEC SORRY IF YOUR SICK OF IT. Gonna make a great movie though.LOL AJMO GLTA. Lotta people watching this one.
that is a broad stoke of possibilities. I am sure the board can and will give you more focused outcomes. I am off line in a few but will put my idea of where we are at later tonight. (not that I have any new revelations but I do have a diff point of view here.) GLTA
HERE IS ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THE FIGHT!!!(cant take credit for the find) but dam good find
Why WaMu Bond Prices Reveal a Greater Truth
by: Troy Racki July 28, 2010 | about: JNK / JPM / WAMUQ.PK
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back to yahoo finance add to my yahoo back to cake
While attorneys involved in Washington Mutual’s (WAMUQ.PK) bankruptcy spin varying stories, the greatest truth teller appears to be the bond market.
On Tuesday three senior WaMu issues struck new 52-week highs, each representing debt in WaMu’s bankrupt holding company which has now ground into its twenty-second month of court appointed existence. As the company continues to accumulate tens of millions in professional fees each month, WaMu’s defaulted debt continues to ride inexplicably higher. All the while attorneys for the estate predict the possibility of impending doom unless an immediate global settlement is reached.
At WaMu’s most recent July 20th hearing, Walter Curchack of Loeb & Loeb stated:
Our recoveries are shrinking every day.
Several minutes later, Thomas Lauria of White & Case reiterated:
Every dollar of our recovery is at risk in this case. The risk here is that in the absence of a settlement the estate's recovery could go to zero.
Despite these statements of catastrophe WaMu debt continues to climb daily, reflecting a reality that does not appear to translate to the courtroom. One such senior note, WAMU.JC has risen 4.2% for the week alone and is up 28% for the year. WAMU.IL and WAMU.IS, which also hit their 52-week highs, are up 21% and 13%.
WaMu Incorporated debt – not to be confused with WaMu Bank debt – is a curiosity for those who track distressed securities. Where many issues in default sell for 10 to 20 cents on the dollar, or even less, WaMu’s debt currently trades between 92 to 112 cents as reported by FINRA. The yields for these issues, which do run a risk of zero recovery, are exceptionally low. The average WaMu senior note provides a mere 6.22%, while its subordinated debt just 6.28% if held to the maturity of the company’s chapter eleven proceedings (assuming 24 months interest).
Senior:
Coupon
Price
Recovery
Differential
YTM %
WAMU.IE
4.00%
104.8
108.16
3.36
3.2061
WAMU.JB
2.95%
92
105.99
13.99
15.2065
WAMU.IL*
4.20%
106
112.36
6.36
6.00
WAMU.IM
3.09%
99.062
106.28
7.218
7.2863
WAMU.JC*
5.50%
109.125
111.3
2.175
1.9931
WAMU.IP
5.00%
107
110.25
3.25
3.0374
WAMU.IO
3.50%
98.75
107.12
8.37
8.4759
WAMU.IS*
3.22%
99.125
106.54
7.415
7.4805
WAMU.IT
5.25%
107.25
110.78
3.53
3.2914
Subordinated:
WAMU.HE
8.25%
111.689
117.18
5.491
4.9163
WAMU.IH
4.63%
102.61
109.47
6.86
6.6855
WAMU.JG
7.25%
107.246
115.03
7.784
7.2581
*52-week high
By comparison, Barclays Capital High Yield B EFT (JNK), which holds a wide range of non defaulted medium grade bonds, yields 12.15%, nearly double that of WaMu’s no grade defaulted securities. Oddly enough, JP Morgan (JPM) has several securities that could be considered “more risky” than WaMu’s based on their yield; November 01, 2039, notes, and October 01, 2037, bonds with YTM of 6.724% and 6.715% respectably.
(Click to enlarge)
Typically, reward mirrors risk. As yields climb so does the chance of default and or loss of principle to inflation. From the prices currently attracted by WaMu’s, debt it would appear that the market is stating that WMI’s defaulted debt is a better investment than most S&P 30 year corporate A grade issues. This comes in direct opposition to what is being stated in the courtroom.
Why then the disconnection? Why are over par prices being paid for such high risk securities? The efficient market model demands that there be a reason. While there is no definitive answer, the seemingly inefficient prices likely indicates that there is a knowledge known by the debtors but not by the public.
One possible explanation is the current rights offering, which is buried within the six hundred plus pages of WaMu’s most recent disclosure statement. In the plan certain creditors will be able to exchange their debt for equity in the new WaMu. The plan hints that the new WaMu will likely reorganize in Delaware as a merger, but provides little other detail. The statement also hints at consideration by the debtor regarding WMI’s $26.3 billion in capital losses from common stock held in Washington Mutual Bank. At a 35% federal corporate tax rate and an 8.7% corporate state tax rate, WMI’s capital losses could be worth up to $11.5 billion in tax deferrals to an acquirer. Such an asset, if passed through to the creditors, seems sufficient enough reward for the risks at hand.
Given $6.4 billion of debt, swapped creditors would be able to access an immediate yield of over 82% on their investment. An 82% YTM answers the efficient market model and gives good reason for the over par prices on WaMu’s debt. The question remains though, should WMI creditors receive this benefit or should it pass on to WMI’s current equity holders? Unfortunately for the attorneys, this will be up to the judge.
Disclosure: Author is long WAMUQ.PK
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216989-why-wamu-bond-prices-reveal-a-greater-truth
I am not sure if this helps the conversation but i do remember the judge saying I" I dont want to chase a moving target" referring to the POR. I believe she wanted to freeze the existing POR so Rosen can sink or swim (or choke) on what he put out there as fair and reasonable GS. Also for the the EX to have a "final" copy to go by.
Sorry, still catching up for the day. JMO
voodoo, I know its a bit late to answer this but I feel that if JH asks for docs, b-f and they only give him what they want JH to see or "withhold", then JH askes SS for same docs b-f lets say and SS gives him all of them, I believe WEIL has to be concerned what SS has and what UST has so it does get dicey for WEIL to lie to JH. Same with JPM n FDIK. I believe that SS has a few tricks up his sleeve that will have everyone biting their nails, rightfully so. JMO
this is the reason why Nelson (EC) had her put in as evidence or on record and named it exibit _____ dont remember but did sound like good idea at moment to me so SS can use it in future.
Ya Jes, roomers all day bout GS but this is very uncanny IMO
JSUT LIKE GS, JPM can not admit to fraud!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
INTERSETING.................Fingreg, GS, FDIC new power,WAMU SILENCE, BP (obvioulsy indirect and unforseen) all in 48ish hours. Could run w it but maybe just a really big coincidence. WOW
PLUS ALL BS with JPM earnings ,, yaaaa just a coincidence OR IS IT. ? Some house keeping going on by OBAMA! I DONT KNOW
Im not debbie downin (no offense debbie) I just have never seen such silence> Even the vol. is turned down, like not a peep from the meeting and chambers was leaked. This only leeds me to conclude for myself that the chambers meeting on the 8th was very very important n SS has ability to put some heads on his mantel next to the other achievements he has had. all my opinion
Actually maybe it was such an important topic in chambers that the mover/shakers do know but were told dont react cause "THEY" are watching n "you will be smoked out if you try to capitalize on the info I just gave you." JMO
Uz , I have to admit how odd everything is here w wamu. Feels like a dam quite period. I really dont get it more confused than ever. But thats just my view. Really dont know what to think , i have read every spec on the board, wonder if one of our many theories are correct or if we missed something, just weird.
yes vulc n trail I agree totally. Sorry no pm ability. GLTA
identify, vilify , nullify. That is the large game plan of this Govt. Very scary what the future holds. I truly hope there is a way for peaceful reacquisition of the govt for the people. GOVT GONE WILD wont fly with the people.....eventually!
fssh, have you ever thought about why they might be consolidating all the banks. For see a problem in the future with the tremendous debt we have and a communist county basically owning big part of American IOUs. I am not a conspirator but I believe we need to look behind the curtain for some answers. The govt has control of media and will play the game "keep your eyes on my assistants gorgeous chest while I swipe the Rolex off your wrist". Misdirection is the game and we all are falling for it (except a few who think outta the box. JM2cent
Sam, I hope we are in the ball park. you have a good grasp on this. one other thing that has been bothering me is this. if I have someone over a barrel then you will come to my office to play ball not tell me I can come to yours. You want a resolution n avoid the slew of possible bad outcomes, my office is on Park ave 75th floor. I will be there from 7-9am on monday morning, dont be late because my sched is filled for the next 10 days. O ya, Ive been to your office and it has always been a waste of my time, wanna talk in person make sure you bring me coffee, LOTS OF "MILK" 2 sugars. i am a bastard till i get my coffee "MILK" n sugars
Thats is one of the things that has been vexing me since the 8th. SS might just be so humble (columbo style) that he doesnt play those power games but it still is a power game. confused but feel more confident than ever, SS has taken all info from others who tried to help EC and put it all together with his own resources (think TPG would have info on wamu also, believe I read TPG was one of SS clients in a pass life). Gotta love the underdawgs, I do! One last thing that I cant get my head around nor find enough fact on to make sensible theory. I really feel that the NSS was one of the major take down tools including the CDS's (credit default swaps) that obliterated confidence in this stk on its death spiral to .03 cents. I feel strongly that there is still a very large unreg short position possibly offshore which might be the missing link here. If everyone was shorting WAMU wout a barrow in place and 2.8bill shares were short at one point (my guestimation) how do you cover 1bill shares if they dont exist to cover (buy back). The only way to do that is if you just cancel all common shares. we know this was the main objective from the start and now it is starting to look like it might not happen that way. I find it hard to believe they would leave that business "blow up" trade open to their demise but i still think it is a factor. Just silly speculation I cant figure out theoretically. This is all in my own opinion FWIW GLTA
In my personal opinion it is too late in the game to bluff. And yes you are correct, so is the board for that matter that this will be a certain thorn in Rosen's side if not an RPG (black hawk down). I believe that it gives substantial support to what SS is using to argue for Examiner. But, I really dont think SS bomb on the 8th was for discovery or examiner. I have no direct knowledge or even clever spec to back this up but from what I heard from Illens and some others (including the fact that TPS is getting down n dirty this late in the game) I really feel we are getting into valuation mode and huge lack of investigation and follow through on the part of Weil Rosen etc (which is hard to justify a guy on the case for three months pulls up with a damning piece of info and rosen and his 10s of millions in billable hours over a 2 year period didnt find enough so they dropped all charges and said sorry here is more cahs and taxes and please forgive me, take it all)). I really feel SS has something that gave rosen a really good reason to put him in the big chair in their conference room and talk turkey for real. I dont believe they will give him exactly what he wants but I believe they will give him something to go back to the EC with. If the EC rejects it he will happily make a call and say "sorry rosen couldnt get them to budge you missed the mark by a long shot have a nice day" and go forward with his plan of foot sweep to a reverse choke hold till he taps out (jus for visual purposes)
X, I believe we will hear nothing about the meeting today. I think we will have to read between the lines as usual. I really dont think anyone will be talking about the chamber discussions or meeting today because I do think they are of the highest level of importance to this case and I also think the 8th was a def game changer. TPS has something up their sleeve, the court doc they wrote was the tip of the iceberg in my opinion with the majority of the fight (90%) sitting below the water ready to sink a ship IMO. (i feel they are allies of our EC and will play nice with SS IMHO) Sussman will play all his card very close to his vest because he really want this to go to trial, that is where he will get the most value from the estate. This is what he lives for and is pretty much unmatched. I know everyone want a goodquick settlement and be done with this and I do totally undrstand this thought process, but if you were a pre holder you would want every penny you could get and I for one hope they get it. I would b willing to wait for that but selfishly I have only been in this play for little less than a year now. One day we should all tell each other why we came to believe or at least invest in this BK, I think it will be a funny conversation on what we knew and what we believed but we should save that for Vegas. Ill b the drunk one dancing on the bar at the Wynn resort making a fool of my self and laughing about it with lots of friends violating my Amex.
ya , if you owned a stock (which bubbas previous posts seem to imply) and had inside information would you shut your mouth and go buy the bar a drink hoping the info was true or would you come on to a public forum and admit securities fraud/insider trading? hmmmm... let me mull that one over.... ahhh ... ya at the bar I would be. JMO agin, dam,....really hope I am wrong, AGAIN and AGAIN LOL
ill giv ya 2 guess but you will only need 1
no priv mess ability but no prob, happy to help if I can.
BB , I believe the answer is yes. It is not her job to go after attorneys and as long as all parties were satisfied w the resolution of the BK then they would all release each other from wrong doings and sing 'cumbaya' and go to lunch. End of story. This is what I was told from my BK attorney friend. FWIW
looking back over it I guess you could b right. weird though!
as per SEQ out of order trade. Certainly interesting though.someone seems to have accumulated a block for someone else on the LD or needed to get rid of some stock because of Fdup situation. Still trying to fig out the illegal NSS position and if there is still huge amount out there still.
Uz , i believe that was negotiated by buyer and seller.
This seems to have the making of a "PELICAN BRIEF" type scenario. The brain trust here is remarkable on this board. Thankfully nobody has died in their sleep or unexplainable heart attacks and car accidents. I personally believe that there are still a few moves SS will need to make b4 you get a mercy from BR n Co. (JPM FDIK). I will say I am very baffled about the last court hearing. The $s that must have gone into prep and travel for all involved (aprox 25 liars, prob 50 jr liars and who knows how many legal asst to prepare at aprox 500-700$ per/hr avg.) not including the courts time that was blocked out for a list of agendas to be heard. The judge I would think would take all of that into account b4 she just scratches the day and jets off in her white suit for the day. The lack of volume doesn't surprise me as there would not b a leak if it was of major importance and I am sure she has the experience and ability or threat of that to ruin someones life who leaks chamber confidentiality. Could we see vol as we get closer to the 20th. DEFINITELY ! Rosen would just tell his hedgies to wait until there could be another reason for the stock movement and vol. Rosen jus needs to be able to say"IT WASNT ME, and IT WASNT IN CORRELATION TO THE JULY 8th MEETING YOUR HONOR" I still cant figure out how FDICJPM spin this if settle over 10$ . I understand that in the courts eyes all the lawyers will settle w what they are happy or willing to take and legally will give each other get outta jail free cards and sing cumbaya (sp?) but the public's eye needs to be lied to or else people will scream blairy muuddy and want to open a case about every take down by FDIC n BIG BANKS that do the taking. Sorry for the rant just having hard time envisioning the end game. I def do not want stock in a new co. going forward having anything to do w rosen and this BOD , they will find an investment banking tricckk to dilute the hell outta us when SS is gone and still end up winning. FN CROOKS, seen it happen. JMO again really luv to be wrong even though I usually hate it.!!!
GLTA and keep the pressure on, you people are the only reason there still is a game here, and I do enjoy playing it!!!!
No she is scared to rule , she is frozen because of the national attention this could get and implications that could follow for her. She has been known to like these kind of cases where she can set precedence and such but I think she wishes they picked someone else outta the hat for this fight. We need to keep in mind that she is not a RAIN MAKER type of judge that will do what it wants from that pulpit and say that's how it is its is the law. She has Admin. (O bam ya) , congress, regulators, etc etc etc watching this thing. O ya then you have the really scary monster in the room (JPM) who is basically part of the govt in unspoken ways. I truly believe she is frozen like a dear in headlights n is the real one losing sleep over this. Not only is SS our ace in the hole but hers too. She had to be partying her ass off when he got on the case knowing he will do her job for her. ajmo as usual, man never hoped im wrong so many times in one week. but again...
Yes in deed! We throw him a burger and he drags into court a cow, in a reverse choke hold.
again, I usually just hover around here but I am very familiar with the call signs on the board and know you are true blue. I have a big bet that this works out in our favor and we all have our reasons for being here but I know for a fact that anything that went on in those chambers will not b leaked. I believe they call it sacrosanct. Observations and deductive reasoning is going to be fine tuned by us in the coming days and weeks and one of the theory's on the board already could very well b right but I fall back on the theory of Occum's razor. SS seems to have leverage now ( gotta love this guy) and is going to use it to put someone on their knees until he gets what he wants. Your play by play was the best thing I have read in a while here. Really great insight ajmo
Please guys, the attorney who said that if it is even true could b fn w everyone knowing it will be the talk of the boards. I truly think if that guy was in "the know" he would have been busy doing his job instead of talking to strangers about inside information. Absolutely no disrespect to illene or what she might have over heard (she obviously is one of the many huge assets to this board)but I really dont think it is believable for one of these guys to b shooting off his mouth IN COURT about something so serious. JMHO
Really hope Im wrong but
I humbly disagree. The fact that nothing has moved in the stock prices is the tingly feeling I have. If this was a game changer the judge would have said in chambers "I will know if this leaks and I will find the one who did it and have you disbarred!" I believe each and everyone involved in those discussions will follow that to the letter. Do I think Rosen would tell his hedge fund buddy " quietly cover or blah blah) YES I DO but just the fact that we are hearing nothing and seeing nothing I think is big. Settlement? who knows Examiner ? again I have no idea but I do get the real feeling it was a very big day for EC which cant b confirmed until its on paper. GLTA JMHO
BR didnt hand over a smoking gun but he probably had no idea what SS had already so it might have just filled in the blank SS was looking for or as simple as something SS had already and now can say" this is something I got from my own DD and it is left out as very material and withheld b7y BR" JMHO
Hey bud I was thinking the same thing, might be jus a wierd feeling but don't understand why they are not crushing this on the low vol. as per SOP!.? Kinda spooky if you ask me, seems to be trading differently, cant really spec. as to why but it is diff.
sounds like you dictated that from a phone recording.!!! I would not b surprised in the least it went something like that but it was not Dimon it was his gofer. From what I read she is a big fat sell-out and shouold be bashed at will. What a fn joke she turned out to b. Wish I had her email I have lots to say to her, I think I will go find it on my next break. Best to all REAL WAMU'rs
mayb cause it was not jpm it was barclays who knows. I do think and believe our judge will step up at the right and most crucial time.
That makes two of us, was child of Army Dr. there and need to get back. Keep meeting people from there or who lived there, just met bartender in nyc last week who just left there. Think its a sign for me, gotta go back to where I came from. That place is truly spectacular. Best to all
right now nobody knows anything , all spec. A few I have spoken to in the industry believe 8-12 is not outta the question. Truth b told can go from nothing to 1200 dollars per share. The 1200 per share is a .0000001% pipe dream chance if their truly is a 2bill share naked short still on. That would be like if we took control of the BOD and changes CUSIP# then stock could go nuclear and what they would give us in settlement would b moot. The chances of that are so small shouldnt even talk about it but there is your whole answer, IMHO. Sorry I couldnt give you the powerball lotto numbers for next thurs and who will win the Super bowl next year.
bs where did the friut come from all of a sudden? fell from thew sky, they would b addmittin they were wrong dont thiink rosensquat will do that, we need to hav a gun to his head imho