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Advanced Monkinar Review
Disclaimer:
All of the stuff below is simply my opinion based on my attendance of the PHX Advanced Monkinar in March of 2010. While there is a significant amount of controversy surrounding Monk (aka Jerry Williams) and some of the companies he chose as stock picks, my goal is to ignore that as much as possible and provide an objective review of a Monkinar. If you’re interested in my personal opinions of the whole FLD idea and how Monk handled the whole thing, you can read them here (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56176616) and here (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56388350). Suffice it to say that I no longer consume the Koolaid.
The PHX Monkinar was the first advanced one held (before the basic Monkinar became a required prerequisite), so I have attended only the advanced. The primary extras provided at the advanced (compared to the basic) are a day of “live” trading and focus on faster time frames (e.g. 1 minute charts as opposed to just 5 minute and above charts).
Finally, given that people are paying their hard earned money to learn what is taught at a Monkinar, I will not reveal any details of Monk’s system.
What you will Learn
I estimate about a quarter of the time was devoted to hearing stories of how people discovered Monk and why they were attending a Monkinar. Another quarter of the time was devoted to looking at the stock charts of various hope stocks that individuals in the group had invested in (i.e. stocks that you hope go back up some day but probably never will). Probably only an hour or so was devoted to a discussion of the infamous FLD picks and answering questions about them. The remainder of the time was devoted mainly to two things. The first was basic chart reading (e.g. things like what is a candle, what does open/close mean, etc.) and the use of a small handful of basic indicators and how Jerry uses them for swing trading in various time-frames (e.g. 5 minutes to days). I won’t get into the details of Monk’s system (as that is what you’re paying for if you go), but I will say that the system is fundamentally a moving average based system subject to the same pros and cons as all moving average based systems are. The one appealing aspect of the system Monk teaches is that it is extremely simple and easy to follow. The bigger question is if it actually works (more on this later). The second thing you’ll learn is how to daytrade (or swing trade) leveraged ETF’s like FAZ/FAS and QID/QLD in both 5 minute (and above) and 1 minute time frames. You’ll also get to see Monk trade a live market using a 1 minute chart.
Aside from the above stuff, you will get to meet a lot of nice people and get to know some of the faces behind the names on the message boards.
What you won’t learn
You won’t learn about more than 3 or 4 basic indicators. For those of you interested in the math behind these indicators, you won’t get that either.
You won’t learn how to do anything with indicators besides use them for Monk’s system (e.g. you won’t learn how to detect bullish and bearish divergences, etc.).
You won’t learn about basic chart patterns (e.g. head and shoulders, flags, pennants, double tops, etc.) nor will you be taught how to draw a correct trend line or channel.
You won’t learn how to conduct scans or search for your own plays.
You won’t learn about level 2 quotes or how to read and use them.
There is no discussion of different order types beyond market and limit (e.g. trailing stops) nor is there any discussion of money management (e.g. enter or exit a trade in pieces as opposed to going all in or all out at once). There is no real discussion of limiting losses (e.g. when to exit a failing trade or how to use a trailing stop).
There is no discussion of how to use basic put/call options to trade the ETF’s to achieve even additional leverage beyond what you get with the 2X and 3X ETF’s (or for protection in longer term trade).
One other thing worth noting about the live trading day is the following. The concepts of slippage and bid/ask spread cost is never really addressed during the live trading. Monk would simply call out that he was entering or exiting a trade now, and someone would note the price. Unfortunately, this ignores the fact that the entry would have been at the ask and the exit at the bid, and the spread as well as a roundtrip commission would have been lost on the trade. So trades that were considered break-even or small losses would actually have lost a bit more in real life. This tends to obviously bias the results some.
Does it the system work
Monk claims that his system produces winning trades over 82% of the time (if you follow his rules) and can make 3%-5% a day or more trading a 3X leveraged ETF. FWIW, here is my opinion: I have a degree in engineering and use NinjaTrader for trade strategy development and back testing (although not for actual trading). I coded up Monk’s ETF rules and back-tested them against the FAZ/FAS, TNA/TZA, and QID/QLD for the past year. If you just use Monk’s rules as is (in a 5 minute time-frame and close out everything everyday), his system does about break-even (the 1 minute version is worse). Like most moving average based systems, it tends to do fairly well during trending markets and very poorly during range-bound , flat, or choppy markets. In my opinion, to make the system work, you’ll need to enhance it in some manner to get more reliable entry/exit signals or to filter out trading during non-trending markets (either via additional indicators or personal discretion from looking at the chart).
Conclusion
One thing I’ve learned in my short stint so far as a part-time trader is that making money consistently in the market is very difficult at best. Most successful traders are wrong a lot (sometimes as much as they are right). They make money by controlling the loses on the wrong decisions and maximizing the gains on the good ones. If you really think you can go to a weekend seminar and learn some magic trick that will have you making 5% a day every day, you’re most likely just setting yourself up for failure. Monk made the claim at the Monkinar that he’s never had a losing day while day trading. While that is probably impossible to refute, it seems difficult to believe.
Anyway, that’s my take on the advanced Monkinar. I actually don’t have big regrets about going. If I had it to do all over again, I would, however, invest my money elsewhere. My suggestion to you is this: Like you should before investing in anything like this, do a little shopping around and some due diligence before plunking down a few thousand dollars. There are other options.
Wow, Neil,
Thanks for sharing. I’m sure that wasn’t easy. At least you’re learning something from the whole experience. I too had a wake-up moment a while back (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56176616).
The worst part about this was that the whole idea played not only on our greed but also on our dreams and sense of family. I told Jason (who now works for Monk) at the end of the PHX Monkinar that probably the best thing about the experience in PHX was not so much learning something about trading but getting to know the people behind the message board aliases in the FLD’s and developing trust between all of us. The Den had my back, and I had theirs in these plays. In looking back, I’m struck by two things: my gullibility and greed (both of which are hard to admit) and the insidious brilliance of the FLD scam (take people’s sense of family and build it into something called the Den so that people will hold a stock to let others sell regardless of how ridiculous the story is/becomes). This last one I resent most of all, and to see people here still holding on to that idea and still believing that EIGH will come back, that they haven’t been lied to and taken advantage of, truly breaks my heart.
I genuinely wish you the best.
Some thoughts from an ex-EIGH believer…
I posted some thoughts on the C board, but they apply to EIGH as well...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56176616
Some thoughts from an ex-CDIV believer…
I discovered the FLD’s back at the start of the year and invested some in both E and CDIV back in Jan. I gradually sold other stuff and invested a bit more in E and a lot more in CDIV as it started to move up. I became so convinced that the FLD idea was legit as CDIV moved from .06 to .40 that I signed up for the PHX Monkinar. I actually don’t regret going to that. It really wasn’t about the FLD’s. It was mainly Monk’s techniques for reading charts and day trading. It was, however, pretty basic stuff that you could pick up from reading any decent webpage on charting (and most of it I already pretty much knew). It was also nice to meet a lot of the people behind the aliases. I have to say that I still believe most of the people involved in these things are good people that genuinely mean well and care about each other.
In PHX, we did discuss CDIV and the FLD’s briefly. A few things bothered me about the discussion. The first was that there was no one who was involved with the supposed EV** short squeeze that was still around. They were all rich and retired and in hiding now. The second was that Dr. Jerry could never really give a compelling reason why the MM’s would dig so deep a hole to create such an amazing squeeze or what would be the catalyst to trigger it. The third was the fact that Jerry said he wasn’t going to teach us how to screen for chart plays as he didn’t want to distract us from putting our money in the FLD’s. I know. I know. Big red flags. However, it was easy to ignore all that when my .10 average price CDIV shares were running up several 100 percent.
Like a good team player I hit the ask much of the way up as I watched CDIV reach 0.70. I didn’t sell a share even though I knew selling some on the run up to lock in profits was just good common sense, but I didn’t want to hurt the team. I watched CDIV trickle all the way back down into the teens, again never selling a single share. It was when the G stock also ran up to 0.70 and started a similar fall at the end of the summer that I started to really question the whole FLD idea. When the FLD hype got pulled from the den ibox and the Monk was too busy flying his plane to support his troops, I really started to worry. I did some digging into Monk’s old posts on the hub and into the EV** story. I discovered that EV** was not a short squeeze but a pumpfest galore during its crazy run up (try googling “riding hype to the moon” and check out the first result from Canada that shows up). I soon became convinced that the whole FLD idea was nothing more than wishful thinking at best and an outright, if not illegal, scam at worst.
In early September, I decided to exit both E and CDIV. It was just a question of when. I got lucky with E and was able to ride the hype up before I got out. I started selling both of them the day after the absolutely ridiculous E divi PR. It that didn’t convince you the FLD thing was bogus, I don’t think anything will.
So why I am saying all this now? I just think it’s the right thing to do. I wish I had done it sooner before everything had completely collapsed. I’ve met many of you in person and think you’re decent, honest people, but I also believe that a squeeze is never going to happen. Some of you have risked your entire savings and even mortgaged your home in the hope of making it rich off of this crazy idea. If this post ends up saving even one person from flushing what’s left of their money down the toilet, then it’ll be worth it. We’re all grownups, and each of us must make our own decisions, but if you’re going to stay in this thing at least think through some of the stuff that has happened in the past couple months. Look at how Monk has handled this. Look at how these stocks have behaved, and consider what people like XB are saying. Not everyone who questions what is going on is a basher or an MM plant (do you seriously think the MM’s have time for message boards?). Some of the people around here have a lot of experience in the wild west of the pinkies and seem to be straight shooters with believable answers.
I’ll admit that part of me wants to believe this whole FLD thing is just a sincere but misguided idea that went bad (no harm, no foul), but given everything that has happened, that seems as likely as CDIV actually squeezing one day. I genuinely hope it’ll work out well for those of you still holding and buying, but all the evidence indicates that these things will be sub-penny soon. I’ll confess that it’s hard to admit I got taken in by the craziness, but I suppose admitting I got taken in is the first step to not getting taken in again.
It seems there are two options as far as Monk and his FLD’s are concerned.
The first option is that Monk is a scammer extraordinaire who preyed on both people’s greed (it’s going to $5, $10, whatever) and people’s dreams (“you can quit your day job when this squeezes”). He may have very well managed to financially ruin numerous people over the course of these FLD’s. If so, let's hope he goes to jail.
The second option is that Monk is as sincere and decent as he seems, and he genuinely wanted to help people. He actually believed the FLD concept could and would work, and he (like many people) has lost a huge amount of money in last few days. If so, let's hope he's vindicated in some way at some point.
Unfortunately, for anyone still holding EIGH or any of the other FLD’s, it just doesn’t matter. There is no way a squeeze will ever happen at this point (if it was ever even possible). Other than a very few remaining die hard FLD believers, no one will avoid profits next time they have them (nor should they). I’d love to see a miracle for those still holding this, but I really believe the FLD died today.
Do I win something? I guessed 52.5% long before the numbers came out.
See this post: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53066097
Sure, no worries. Hopefully CDIV will start the next leg up soon.
My guess (just for the heck of it)...52.5%
Don't get me wrong, I own CDIV and am not flipping it. I've met Monk and Jason and many others from the Den in PHX. They all strike me as good honest people interested in helping others.
With that said, I have yet to hear a refutation to my short number explanation that I think makes sense. I'm happy to be corrected on that if you have information I haven't seen.
Trust me. I want to see an FLD work as much as any of you.
I keep posting this every so often, but the finra short numbers really tell you almost nothing. See my post from a few days back.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52893844
Concerning the finra numbers, below is a post I made on the den a while back explaining how completely meaningless the daily finra short numbers are. You either believe in the FLD concept or not. The finra numbers will tell you nothing about whether it is working or not.
Posted by: Ninja7 Member Level Date: Friday, July 16, 2010 8:36:49 PM
In reply to: hermon munster who wrote msg# 265687 Post # of 274999 Send a link via email Share on Facebook Tweet this post
Actually the finra numbers are almost completely useless. It is theoretically possible to have 100% legitimate sells show up as 100% shorts in the daily numbers...below is an explanation of the meaning of the finra numbers I posted a while back...
Unfortunately, the finra numbers are never really going to tell you anything useful about what is going on. For one, naked shorts will often not show up in the numbers. Market makers have many ways to hide what they are doing and manipulate the finra numbers. Clearing outside of the DTCC is one example. Another is the fact that where and how a share is counted in the numbers varies. For example, both "real" buys and "real" sells can show up as shorts in the count depending on where they are counted.
Consider someone selling shares through their broker, there are two legs to the transaction, the MM selling the shares into the market and the MM taking ownership of the shares from the broker. There is also a third case in which the MM just buys the shares from the broker to complete the sale and holds them (MM's can take both short and long positions in a pinkie stock and often do). In this sell case, if the leg of the sell transaction from MM to eventual buyer (the market) is counted, the sell will (somewhat surprisingly) appear as a short. If the buy from the broker to MM leg (or the buy to hold by the MM) is counted, the sale will not appear as short. Only one leg of the transaction will appear in the daily numbers.
Buy transactions are equally confusing as they also have two legs. The leg from the market to MM and the leg from MM to broker. If the leg from market to MM is counted, the buy not will show up as short (as the MM bought shares). If the leg from MM to broker is counted, it will show up as short (as the MM sold shares to the broker). There is also a third case in which the MM sells its own inventory to complete the buy (which will probably not show up as short) and a fourth case in which the MM sells shares it doesn't have (naked shorts) to complete the sale. This last case is what makes the FLD possible (and also why MM's are legally allowed to naked short to make a market).
In general, the finra numbers are supposed to tally only the "consolidated tape" transactions, that is the transaction legs between the MM and the market (not the legs between MM and brokers). If this is true and the MM's behave accordingly (lol), legit sells should always show up as shorts in the counts.
In other words, the daily numbers really tell you nothing useful (longer trends can be a bit interesting but are often still very misleading).
You either believe in the FLD concept or you don't. The finra numbers really won't help much to tell whether it is working or not.
Anyway, that's my two cents on the finra numbers and what they mean.
Hi Rich...just wanted to say thanks for recording the F data. I just recently discovered that NinjaTrader has a market playback mode that one could use to practice day trading on. It's really very cool (as you obviously already know), so thanks for recording and making available the F data--very cool.
One question: Have you ever tried recording the L2 data for the F's as well? Is it just too much data? I ask because I use an MB Trading demo account for practicing on a live market and find the L2 useful at times to detect peaks and bottoms. Just wondering.
Anyway, thanks again. By the way, I was at the PHX Monkinar as well. I believe you were there taking pictures, right?
Also...hermon munster's video intro is very helpful, so thanks to him as well.
Actually the finra numbers are almost completely useless. It is theoretically possible to have 100% legitimate sells show up as 100% shorts in the daily numbers...below is an explanation of the meaning of the finra numbers I posted a while back...
Unfortunately, the finra numbers are never really going to tell you anything useful about what is going on. For one, naked shorts will often not show up in the numbers. Market makers have many ways to hide what they are doing and manipulate the finra numbers. Clearing outside of the DTCC is one example. Another is the fact that where and how a share is counted in the numbers varies. For example, both "real" buys and "real" sells can show up as shorts in the count depending on where they are counted.
Consider someone selling shares through their broker, there are two legs to the transaction, the MM selling the shares into the market and the MM taking ownership of the shares from the broker. There is also a third case in which the MM just buys the shares from the broker to complete the sale and holds them (MM's can take both short and long positions in a pinkie stock and often do). In this sell case, if the leg of the sell transaction from MM to eventual buyer (the market) is counted, the sell will (somewhat surprisingly) appear as a short. If the buy from the broker to MM leg (or the buy to hold by the MM) is counted, the sale will not appear as short. Only one leg of the transaction will appear in the daily numbers.
Buy transactions are equally confusing as they also have two legs. The leg from the market to MM and the leg from MM to broker. If the leg from market to MM is counted, the buy not will show up as short (as the MM bought shares). If the leg from MM to broker is counted, it will show up as short (as the MM sold shares to the broker). There is also a third case in which the MM sells its own inventory to complete the buy (which will probably not show up as short) and a fourth case in which the MM sells shares it doesn't have (naked shorts) to complete the sale. This last case is what makes the FLD possible (and also why MM's are legally allowed to naked short to make a market).
In general, the finra numbers are supposed to tally only the "consolidated tape" transactions. That is the trqansaction legs between the MM and the market (not the legs between MM and brokers). If this is true and the MM's behave accordingly (lol), legit sells should always show up as shorts in the counts.
In other words, the daily numbers really tell you nothing useful (longer trends can be a bit interesting but are often still very misleading).
You either believe in the FLD concept or you don't. The finra numbers really won't help much to tell whether it is working or not.
Anyway, that's my two cents on the finra numbers and what they mean.
Good for you for admitting that Alan. I'm sure that wasn't easy. From looking at the chart and watching the L2 in CDIV back at the peak, I'm pretty sure you weren't the only one dumping shares, but you are the first to admit it.
Besides how it financially affected many of us on the team (at least in the short term), the worst part about this is that it's given some validation to all the negative claims that an FLD will never work because the team will just dump shares to the new buyers.
Anyway, I appreciate your admission. I tell my 10 year old son that we need to be accountable first to God and then to each other for our actions. I also tell him that when we mess up, repentance doesn't just mean saying we're sorry. It means trying to turn around and not do the same thing again. It sounds like you're trying to do that. Consider yourself forgiven in my book.
skimming through posts...exactly right ExB...those guys calling STHG a FLD is almost comical if it weren't so sad since a bunch of people are going to end up getting burned in the process (not to mention it potentially giving a bad rep to the legit FLD's Monk calls here in the Den).
I mean seriously, just do some math...you're talking probably close to $6-10M to lock up ~2X the float for a squeeze of STHG. Do the people on the other boards have that kind of money and would they really be willing to invest it in a company that is in debt and needing money ASAP (e.g. dilution being one realistic way of getting it)? If you flipped it on the run up, good for you. If you're holding it expecting a squeeze, get out before you lose all your money.
I say this for anyone looking through the Den posts that might be tempted to dump money into these other so called FLD plays outside the Den.
If you want a real FLD to invest in, there are only four that I know of: CDIV, EIGH, PNTV, and GRNO.
Yes, you do. However, TDA does not support level 2 for pinkies (only big boards and OTC).
That took me about 15 seconds. lol
Cool, glad it helped. I think the only number that really means anything in these FLD's is the Den share ownership relative to the float.
I agree. I don't even know why finra publishes the numbers. At best they mean nothing, and at worst they are completely misleading.
Hey Ryan, you already got some great responses to the questions about the finra numbers (I think ExB's response kind of sums up all the important stuff).
I think you either believe in the FLD concept or you don't, and I believe in it. Unfortunately, the finra numbers are never really going to tell you anything useful about what is going on. For one, naked shorts will often not show up in the numbers. Market makers have many ways to hide what they are doing and manipulate the finra numbers. Clearing outside of the DTCC is one example. Another is the fact that where and how a share is counted in the numbers varies. For example, both buys and sells can show up as shorts in the count depending on where they are counted.
Consider someone selling a share through their broker, there are two legs to the transaction, the MM selling the shares into the market and the MM taking ownership of the shares from the broker. There is also a third case in which the MM just buys the shares from the broker to complete the sale and holds them (MM's can take both short and long positions in a pinkie stock and often do). In this sell case, if the leg of the sell transaction from MM to eventual buyer is counted, the sell will (somewhat surprisingly) appear as a short. If the buy from the broker to MM leg (or the buy to hold by the MM) is counter, the sale will not appear as short. Only one leg of the transaction will appear in the daily numbers.
Buy transactions are equally confusing as they also have two legs. The leg from the market to MM and the leg from MM to broker. If the leg from market to MM is counted, the buy not will show up as short (as the MM bought shares). If the leg from MM to broker is counter, it will show up as short (as the MM sold shares to the broker). There is also a third case in which the MM sells its own inventory to complete the buy (which will probably not show up as short) and a fourth case in which the MM sells shares it doesn't have (naked shorts) to complete the sale. This last case is what makes the FLD possible (and also why MM's are legally allowed to naked short to make a market).
In other words, the daily numbers really tell you nothing useful (longer trends can be a bit interesting but are often still very misleading). This is also without even considering clearing transactions outside the DTCC (often used to hide naked shorts from the FTD numbers).
As I said, you either agree with the FLD concept and act on it or you don't. The finra numbers unfortunately won't necessarily give you much assurance whether it is working or not.
Hope this helps more than causes additional confusion.
just read through more posts only to see that you already knew some of what I said (like detaching windows)...guess I should catch up on posts before responding...it might save me some typing. lol
$5 trades would be great I agree...unfortunately I didn't have the cash to actually get the offer. I'm hoping it won't be an issue after C squeezes and that the offer will still be available.
You can get your position info by going to the Monitor tab and under that "Activity and Positions." There is a "Position Statement" area that you can customize to show different things. I'm not sure you can get all the details you want. There is also the "Market Watch" tab that can be customized.
One other feature that I didn't realize existed for a while was the ability to detach any view into its own separate window instead of clicking between tabs (the detach icon is in the upper right hand corner of the thing you want to detach).
I've also found emailing tech support usually has good results if you have specific questions.
I know you can't PM me back, but I'll PM you my contact info as I'm not sure the rest of the Den cares about all these details for ToS.
Hi Mel, if you didn't see my reply to Maestro208, you might check it out as I really like ToS for trading the F's (although still on paper for now).
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52098479
Thought I'd chime in here as I've been using ToS for my paper trading of the F's (it's got a cool paper money mode).
I think the active trader ladder is a very cool trading interface. Once you get it set up, you can enter market sell and buy orders with a single click, you can also enter stop and limit orders with a single click. The other cool thing about the active trader ladder is that it shows trade volume for all the price levels as well as effectively L2 in one display in which you can also do the single click order entry.
The best way to learn it is to go to the help tab in ToS and click on the "Use the Active Trader Ladder" link under Walkthroughs & Demos.
My only gripe with TDA for the F's is the commission schedule ($9.99). However, I know they'll negotiate that as they offered me $5 commissions for life if I transfered in $150K to my account. Unfortunately, I didn't have the $150K.
FYI...
20100708|CDIV|84392|191902|O
~44%
Hi Monk...FWIW, I have a great deal of respect for how you handle all the character assaults you've suffered recently on the various message boards around here and elsewhere.
If people want to disagree with your trading ideas or not buy the FLD concept, that's fine, but to attack your character given how publicly and selflessly you help people out is incredibly lame and just shows what their character is made of.
Thanks for the response. I've heard good things about Zecco from a couple different people.
I have most of my stuff in TDA and Scott. I really like TDA's thinkOrSwim platform for trading. It has a live market paper trade mode I've been using to practice which is very cool. I just don't like the commissions, although I hear they'll negotiate if you have enough money and number of trades. Maybe after C or E squeezes...
Hi Sidney, I have the $25K equity because of my FLD holdings, so I'm not qorried about the pattern day trading. I just don't have much free cash to trade.
What are Just2Trade execution speeds like on the F's? Do you pretty much get the price you expect?
Hey all...been a while since I posted on the Den but I'm still around and holding my C and E shares. The C board seems to be degenerating into Yahoo-like posts recently. Wow.
Anyway, my question is this...my trading cash is currently all locked up (pun intended) in C and E, so I have no cash to trade the F's for real right now (which is killing me, by the way). However, I will have about $8-10K in another month, but it's money that I'll need to use to live off of starting a couple months after that. I was thinking, however, that I could trade the F's with it and make enough to pull some out as needed while still trying to build up the core amount. I'd also only be able to trade the first 60-80 minutes of the day before dropping the kids off at school and heading into work.
I've been trying this scenario on paper (using the 1 min charts), but the problem is that the commissions are killing me with such a small principle amount as in that first 60-80 minutes I may make 6-12 round trip trades on the 1 min charts which is ~$200 in commissions (at $9.99 a trade). Since it's a percentage game, that $200 dollars translates to 2% a day (or 10% a week). On paper, I've been managing around 8%-14% a week only trading that first 60-80 minutes depending on what the market is doing. That would be great if I didn't have to give up 10% of it each week in commissions.
Has anybody else tried anything similar (e.g. smaller principle amounts or only trading a small part of the day)? Any suggestions? I've tried going with the 5 min trades to reduce the number, but that first hour often isn't enough time to get in and out of a 5 min trade.
I also found a broker (MB Trading) that was rated very highly by Barrons for day trading. They only charge $4.95 a trade and seems to have very good execution times and tools. Does anybody use them? Obviously, slashing the commission in half makes a huge difference with the smaller principle.
Any ideas are welcome. Thanks.
Of course, if someone could just induce the CDIV squeeze in the next month, that would also solve my problem by dramatically increasing the principle amount I could use to trade the F's. lol
Wow, Sir. Sorry to hear that.
finra numbers for today...
20100701|CDIV|35755|48524|O
~73% short
My last reply...and then you're welcome to the last word...
Yes, inventory does imply not short...maybe a poor word choice on my part...my point was that MM's do take positions in pinkie-land (both short and long positions). They also make money on the spread.
The problem with your volume comment is the following (assuming for the moment that the MM's are short and we own all the shares): volume will follow price and they need "sell" volume--not "buy" volume. If they move the price up to a level at which the team starts selling, they will get the volume, cover their shorts, and can make a boatload taking it back down after we all exit and the unfortunate but real bag-holders take over.
They could indeed try taking it lower to generate sell volume. That have had some success around the .71 area with this approach, but it no longer seems to be working and seems, in fact, to work less and less as they go lower.
You're right. Time will tell. If you believe in the FLD concept (which is simply about a favorable share structure and MM/market behavior--not fundamentals), you should indeed buy as patience will be greatly rewarded. If not, you shouldn't. GLTY
20100629|CDIV|81056|184893|O
~44% short
Yes the 10K was a trade, but the interesting question is who was on both sides of the trade: retail exchanging shares with retail, MM selling to retail, MM buying from retail, or MM exchanging shares.
You can write the following comment off as hearsay, but I used to know a guy who was a MM for many years, and he said that (unlike the big boards), MM's generally hold positions (sometimes small and sometimes large) in most pinkie stocks in which they make a market. They are more realistically considered dealers. It's permitted in their charter to make a market. He also said that much of what they do in terms of price action in pinkie-land is designed to unload excess inventory or load up inventory if they are lacking or short. Depending on what they want to do in terms of their positions, they may fuel a run, stall a run, start a run, stop a drop, fuel a drop, etc.
Many of us on this board would argue that our friendly CDIV MM's are desperately trying to load up inventory to offset a large short position.
No...right now we own somewhere around 105-110M, which (using the 165%-200% range) means we likely need somewhere between 0M and 22M shares. In other words, it could happen anytime or it might take a bit longer.
CDIV is not a play for the impatient.
Hey, LG...nice job holding the fort down. I should get back to work now, but the float squeeze math brought me out of hiding for a minute.
Oh, and go CDIV to be on topic.
Just to clarify a bit further...the team needs to own somewhere between 109M to 132M shares to trigger the squeeze (i.e. 165%-200% of the 66M float)...hope that clears things up for anyone still wondering about the math.
LG is right. 65% over is not an exact magic number. When I heard Monk answer this question (in person), he said the squeeze typically occurred around 65%-80% over the float but could even approach 2X the float before they cover.
The point is we are close. It may still take a bit of time. It may also depend on how much success the MM's have getting shares without squeezing.
Patience...
lol
Wow, that makes three of us (although I don't have the lifetime membership to his fan club like EX does...just kidding, EX)
Just trying to spread the wealth around (Wait a sec, that sounds a lot like one of ExB's favorite public figures )