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Calm down people. It is 1:00 am in Frankfurt right now. We still have couple hours.
booooooooooom!
Let me buy you one... or ten. lol
F YEAH
HERE WE GOOOOOOO!!!!
SHE'S APPROVING EC
CONFERENCE CALL WORKS AGAIN YOU CAN DIAL IN!
Pumper!!!
Pumper!!!
Revelation! What if Weil is taking a backseat, because their job is almost done. They are /were responsible for settling the claims of the estate. What if they are done and now that A>L is close or above, they are no longer needed, because everyone is getting paid and the company goes to the shareholders/equity.
HUM!
Revelation! What if Weil is taking a backseat, because their job is almost done. They are /were responsible for settling the claims of the estate. What if they are done and now that A>L is close or above, they are no longer needed, because everyone is getting paid and the company goes to the shareholders/equity.
HUM!
Hi 6wheel,
I read your post and you ask about significance of the 29th. Well IMO, let me explain why 29th makes it significant to me:
1) THJMW has to rule on THE $4 bil. question (who's cash is it) - So far we still don't know anything. It is still possible that she's gonna rule in favor of JPM/FDIC but that's only possibility not probability. I am favoring WaMu just because arguments of JPM are ridiculous and I don't think Walrath is going to believe it (listening to court hearings I don't think she does)
2) We have that extra cash from tax refunds reported in last monthly operating report as of Dec. 30th (that got preferreds moving because we have more cash for pay-out. Even though it is not official) which gives a little hope for commons too. I say it gives us hope not settlement. But it is a little step closer.
3) Motion of WMI to disband EC was very disturbing to me at first. All of a sudden you have feeling like there are three parties for the money but as some people posted before me (I believe it was uzualsusspect, thank you) this was expected from them. If you read the motion (about 20 pages) they go on and on and on about the whole case step by step to pretty much disregard the commons. Arguing that the stock is pretty much worthless and EC is gonna cost us extra money and time. Why would they do it, you ask? Well it actually makes sense. Why would company share the settlement money with shareholders that have probably between 1 and 2 mil shares each because they loaded up for couple thousand dollars? Few cents a share? As uzual said, it was expected and it only assures me that the money is there (probably closer than we think) and they want to keep all the money. And questions like pre- and post- shareholders are irrelevant because there is no law that would give pre- shareholders more rights than post- shareholders. You own a share = you own the right.
4) I haven't really confirmed it but it had been posted here before and if anybody could verify it, that would be great.
In BK if any changes in ownership, which in this case means canceling commons (I heard it many times to be a concern and very popular weapon for bashers) the company looses every right for tax benefits aka tax refunds which as reported in MOR in Dec. are expected to be over $5 bil. (even though if you check statements NOL is $20 bil. That is over $7 bil in refunds). That is significant money WMI don't want to loose and that is also the reason they want to disband the EC. They don't want to cancel the common and they don't want to give the common any money, so what do you do? Disband EC.
5) There is a very little chance the EC will be disbanded because of a simple reason. The EC was formed on a request of U.S. Trustee, not WMI, not JMP, not FDIC.
6) and finally IMO a little reason but interesting: if you look at all Omnibuses, Court hearings, etc. and the time they started, you'd be in a range from 10:30 am to 1:00 pm. Since this Omnibus is scheduled for 4:00pm, after market closes, I have just good gut feeling about this. That's all.
And now...
Jamie, wwwhat's happening?... How's the settlement? Yeah, 'bout that... Well, I'm gonna need you to go ahead and pay the money. And if you can do it as soon as possible..., that would be great! Alright... See ya!
P.S: Can anybody please verify common cancelation and tax refunds? Thanks guys
I wouldn't say it better desperado. Agree with every word!!!
To be honest, I don't have it written. I have read it on one of the "wamu" webs (I think it was wamuequity.com) that this would be goal for our legal team. But as I said, I don't have written proof.
$8.00 pps is the fair price that our law team is trying to negotiate. $8.00 is JPM's original offer for WaMu in April 2008 at the time when WaMu was in worse condition than what JPM is holding now.
I'm not really sure about that. FDIC already receive 1.9 bil from JPM and that's it
cicimici time to sell again
How many share did you get?
No, No and No!
Those banks you are talking about are the banks that JPM is holding (branches that are Chase now) and they should pay for those.
Hello Johny,
what does it exactly means? Sorry I don't understand these legal terms? Thank you.
HaHa, you're a funny guy chart...,
you're not even in first 100 on covestor.com. I am definitely gonna put all my money in your picks because I don't want to lose any more... Haha
It's exactly it NITE
RSI for last year...
buy at 30 sell at 90. This is not a recommendation!!! LOL
Nice Jest...,
looks like MMs like RSI... LOL
No idiots in this game Scott, you just hopped on the train after the run up and big hype like many people... Here is nice post from Y! message board by Wamuchen
How the Market should work
Imagine that a market really IS controlled by the laws of "supply and demand", and rises and falls due to the imbalance between external buyers and sellers (you and me) competing for, or shunning certain securities. In this wonderful la-la land, market makers really don't care what the market does, as they make their own money from the spread. And a nice profit is is too. But hang on - isn't there any way to make MORE money from these investing sheep? Of course there is.
How the Market really works
To lubricate their transactions, market makers need a supply, or inventory of the securities they support. This can either be real certificates, or via a process called 'stock lending' (don't worry about THAT one yet - it basically means they borrow stock or "pretend" they have it). Once you have an inventory of stock, and the concept of 'spread' (or 'edge'), a marvelous opportunity opens up. The average price at which a market maker accumulates a security and the average price at which he distributes it are going to be different. Add this to the fact that the market maker sets the price tick by tick, and boom! A license to print money. Observe closely, this is a good trick.
Let's play Chicken
I, as a market maker, decide (for no real reason, or perhaps because there has been some trivial news about them) that stock in ABC Corp is my plaything today. I don't have much of an inventory in that particular security, so what do I do? Mark up the price so external holders will sell me some? No. I mark the price DOWN. Oof. Some external parties see this as a buying opportunity, and as I am a market maker, I am obliged to sell them the security at the new, lower price, meaning I am even shorter on that security.
Sounds mad, doesn't it? But it doesn't matter, because I mark the price down again. And again. And I keep on doing it till I hit the stops of external parties who are long, but weak, or the limit orders of people who are short. As a market maker, I know where these stops and limits are. I own the book, after all.
Ordinary Joe Public mostly think the market follows the laws of supply and demand, follows trendlines or fibonaccis etc, which means they all tend to put their stops in similar places ('resistance' anyone? 'support'? That's right, it exists!). This is a game of chicken, really, and YOU will ALWAYS crack before ME (the market maker), because I can take the market to zero, or to the moon. You have to meet a margin call.
So now I am a market maker who has a LOT of supply of ABC Corp, which has fallen significantly in price. Looks like I'm holding a plum, doesn't it? What do I do next?
So what does a market maker do?
...That's right. I mark the price up. And I QUICKLY mark it up to the point at which the current price is ABOVE my average purchase price. So voila. I'm in profit. In a fairly big way. All I need to do now is unload this stock to you over a period of time at a price above my average, and I am rich. You, of course, sold it to me on the way down, and are regretting it because it is probably already way above where you exited (strange isn't it, how the market seems to 'hunt your stops', and then reverse?!) If I do this right (and it is an art form, for which successful brokers get paid multi-million dollar salaries), I create the illusion that the market is totally random, and is being driven by YOU, whereas I am simply a fee paid middleman, facilitating your activities. Even worse, I give you the vague impression that you are actually pretty good at it, and if you can only get your stops a little more accurate, you will stop losing money!
As I mark the price up, external parties start to worry they will miss out on this growth, and begin an ABC Corp buying frenzy, allowing me to unload. Everyone is happy. Most of the investing public are sitting on unrealized (imaginary) assets, while I am converting worthless shares into hard cash.
So, I have made a real, cash profit. You are sitting on an unrealized paper profit. We are all happy. Until I repeat the process and stop you out. Again. Are you getting the picture yet? In fact, once I have built a little momentum in a particular direction (long OR short) I can let you prolong it, settling simply for my spread profit. I know that eventually the run will peter out, and then I can force it the other way, easily dislodging those who took a position too near the end of that particular phase.
Let me paraphrase. When the market is zooming up madly, market makers are actually selling (usually stock they don't own!) in preparation for a subsequent managed fall, during which they can buy it back for less (i.e. make a profit). When it is crashing down, they are actually acquiring stock, in preparation for the process of selling it back to you at a higher price (i.e. make another profit).
Does it EVER behave according to supply and demand?
So how do you, as an external investor, determine whether the market is being 'sheepdogged' by the market makers, or is actually moving under the real influence of normal supply and demand? Slope. Key to a market maker being able to effectively set his average price is the speed with which he marks it up or down. For example, when squashing prices downwards, if the market maker lets the process take too long, he will accumulate stock at too high an average price, making it hard for him to reverse out at a profit. He needs to buy it at an average price nearer the low than the high. Speed is of the essence. That is why a typical day on the DOW (for example) consists of a wild rally or fall, followed by a gradual retracement, then perhaps another wild flurry of activity. Most action during the day happens in very short time periods. Now you know why.
Obviously, one of the reasons this is an art form to the market maker is that it requires a mind in tune with the thoughts of the general public in order not to 'kill the golden goose'. If a market maker is too blatant in these cash raids, the public, while not actually understanding the process, might stop playing due to the '5 times bitten' syndrome.
Long Term Rising Markets
The process works just as well either way, i.e. long or short. So why, I hear you ask, does the market generally seem to continue to rise over time (on average)? Economic growth, inflation, etcetera, undoubtedly play a part, but from a market maker's view, keeping the long-term trend up is important because it "keeps the public in the game". If everyone is convinced that long term the market will outperform property or other investments, they will keep trying to invest, no matter how often a market maker raids their account and smacks them round the back of the head with a wet flounder. This is the reason why stock markets will continue to outperform any other sort of investment over the long term - if it didn't the market makers wouldn't have anyone to suck on, and until other investment types also have a super class of manipulators, things won't change. From their own perspective, they would prefer it to wobble around a set middle, so they could cream you up and down, with little thought involved - this would enable them to hire less expert staff and cut their costs.
OK, so what about Bear Markets?
You just keep asking these hard questions, don't you? The phenomenon of bear markets is reasonably straightforward, and is basically a question of timescales. Markets are fractal - that is, without any time clues, the movements of price look remarkably similar at any resolution, from a single day up to yearly charts. Different players work to different timescales. A bear market just happens to be an occasion when a long-term element needs the markets to fall again, so they can re-supply. The more cynical among you might argue that extreme preceding bull phases mean that a standard bear jerk off is needed to restore any semblance of credibility to the game, and there may indeed be some truth in that. The more niave among you may argue that world economic cycles cause these phenomenon, in which case, the very best of luck in your trading!
Shorts covering...? Maybe? Exactly how you posted Fish... FBCR way far from best Bid/Ask
Hello everybody...,
hearing might bring something nice. Shorts are covering (this is pushing our price higher). Maybe they have reason to be scared?
Go Wamu
Haleluya... lol, great post. I'm with you pennyguy. Plain talking and opinions are nice but let's not forget guys only news, hearings and what's on paper really matters here right now.
...and the new symbol is $$$$$... LOL
I guess afternoon... usually.
Found it, thank you Jestiron! Sorry this doesn't display as a table but I just copy/paste it. But you can definitely read it in that 8-K.
Soooo, I don't know what JPMs attys are trying this time. Is it gonna be like "oh well, you were right, we just gain another three weeks. This time we have another crap for you to be a little bit busy for another two weeks before you rule, your honor"
Thanks again Jest
Account
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Deposit
Money Market
General
Deposit
General
Bank
WMB/JPM
WMB/JPM
WMB/JPM
WMB/JPM
Bank of America
Bank of America
WMB/JPM
Bank of America
Bank Account
xxx0667
xxx4234
xxx9626
xxx9663
xxx0658
xxx4228
WMI
xxx4704
xxx4231
WMI Inv Corp
Combined
GL Account
70 /10450
70 / 10441
70 / 10451
70 / 10452
70 / 12510
70 /10305
Total
467 / 10450
467 / 10305
Total
Total
Opening Balance - 04/30/2009
261,563,168
3,671,253,096
4,654
748,441
352,177,150
5,360,724
4,291,107,233
53,534,492
3,282,743
56,742,917
4,347,850,150
True! I haven't really see the receipt either... But common sense just doesn't make me believe that they are as innocent as they claim to be. Even if you listen to the hearings you know that WAMU is up to something good. Those lawyers would not start the case if they'd be bluffing. Just my opinion
Thanks Jestiron... LOL
Why do you think Infamous that they brought up $4B not being there after 13 months. My point is that it is one of their tricks to gain some time, right? What other reasons you could have to wait 13 months?
Maybe it will. What do you know that makes you so sure?
Not a bad news. Just no news on high expectations. A lot of investors were "IN" for quick profits (couple of weeks) and since the day WAMU has filed extension until Jan. 19th 2010 for Chapter 11 plan and with Judge Walrath taking her time with her decision it is pretty much 90-day period when these investors don't want to wait. So they get out, give shorts some time to make some profits and then (probably around December) we will see September spikes again. IMO
As it was published in one post earlier:
- big vol. and sell off is also indicative of higher than logical expectations and misplaced understanding what occurs after oral arguments on such an impt. SJ Motion. Maybe a week from now or so court should be ready to rule
FISH, DRRUGBY or anybody who understand legal filings...
this Notice of Service of Discovery Responses and Objections to Debtors had been filed yesterday...
http://www.ghostofwamu.com/documents/09-50551/09-50551-0166.pdf
I understand WAMU lawyers have started the process of Discovery and this is probably first of many notices and responses. My question is: Do you know how many times they can "just" be responding and appealing or how long it can take to get our case to actual court room with Discovery process from now?
Thank you very much to anybody who can answer
...and here is explanation of notice of service of discovery (for those who don't know or wonder what it means in legal terms)
http://www.dcejc.org/legal_ejc_app/docs/Discovery.pdf
What's the big news tomorrow?
Haha, this dude doesn't even know what is he doing! Judge had to correct him. How can he even keep his job with such a mistakes. "Oh, oh, I'm sorry your honor..."
HaHa
because you don't have buyers yet... they are waiting for "trigger" from judge. If she's gonna favor WAMU (doesn't have to rule just yet), shorts will freak out and run for cover... could push it up to 0.25+