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For 2 months I have been 100% wrong. That is painful world to be in. Any ideas? Like Give Up?
I thought this market was toast back in early July around 8400. The damn thing has run 1000 points on me. The 50 day moving average volume continues down. The buyers are surely retail.
Today has some signs of a top. early morning blow off to the top. Huge volume on shittiest of the shit. FNM and FRE. Why? But market gives it all back at end. Will I ever be rewarded? My patience is running out.
Day trading treasuries
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Day-Trading-in-US-Treasurys-cnbc-2756897981.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
guess I weren't the only one.
thanks will look into!
Yes. Mr. Molecule I believe the same. The shadow banking system has wrecked the system by levering everyone to the gills. And the attempt to keep the last few life boats inflated is just not going to be enough for everyone to pile into. The only way people are spending any mony on big purchases is if dramatic price cuts are given, which are being given jsut to dump the liabilty off the company balance sheet, aka deleveraging. It's making people think that shit is moving again. But this is like a stagnant pond having a rock thrown in to make it move, eventually if you stop throwing rocks, the pond returns to stagnant and the shit bubbles back to the surface to float on top. We are running out of rocks.
Is MO breaking out? 7% dividend plus breakout on chart?
Do you guys here know of a good board where people discuss the T/A of the broad market indices? Would like to get some perspectives. Am I the only one who thinks this froth has to come down?
I will say I am lost in my own little world it seems. Thanks for help to the man with the grip.
Ah. When is this market going to tank? Maybe it won't eh? The masses still believe everything to be cheap so they are gorging on stupid assumption and lack of awareness about reality. But one is only right if he is in front of the masses, not behind.
My shorts are slowly being squeezed and I have cut their positions down. Perhaps I will add them back at the end of this week, as I think they keep running wild.
Thank you. I agree. for a board that speaks of the broader market. But will keep eye open for sleeper stocks that show up here/. Yes I will be doing lots of rambling this week I think.
Well, well, now we are depending on ARGENTINA to come in and buy our failed banks. Now they got some good crack down south of the equator at least. We goonna need lots. But you watch the market go up on Monday. They goons are making this rise. Its fake. Now I see it. Don't fight them feds. they pushing this bubble back up until they can get they own asses to somewhere safe.
Volume move lower each day. Price move up each day. I don't know if this will end in some wild flurry of everyone just buying in like crack addicts on meth, or will it just finally implode like the load in my kamode.
Or perhaps I need to jsut get me a crack pipe and join the party!
pass me some more of that cactus juice!
I thought sp500 1000 was the lid. I am now moving that up 1050, maybe even 1100. I cut down my shorts the other day by 50% and went long TBT. I have no idea when, but interest rates must rise. That is inevitable, assuming we aren't in a deflationary liquidity trap. Are we going to inflate ourselves like Weimar Germany?
I simply can't bring myself to buy stocks into this rally at this poiint in its evolution. So I am trying to think what else is playable? shit maybe nothing for awhile. Maybe only cactus feed.
Maybe I will just sit and swing on the long bond trade and ignore stocks for awhile.
As for raging. That is what I am doing with this insane mkt. going up every day, day after day, as if there is no reason in. Aer these people not seeing through the haze of they crack pipes. The leverage is being pulled down and will continue to be pulled down.
At least I bought some chinese cactus hog food that is going up.
Hog feed made from cactus. I like it. Bought a little. They need to market their cactus hog feed in the USA, however, they need to say it will give you a raging hard on and/ or increase your breast size, while at the same time causing you to lose unsightly love handles. Then it will really take off.
I may be makeing mistake. But I sell my long term treasury today and swithing to shorting the 20 year treasury.
You see the goons want it to go up. They are too powerful. Shorts must be weaned down and I only will try that side of the table again after there are several confiming days. There should have been a goodly sell-off today. And something too big is standing in the way for now. Perhaps I will go away until the midlle of september.
So I need to finds some sleeper longs. maybe I will buy tobacco and sit on the div for the next 30-60 days.
I looked at this TRTN that was presented on this board. I like this board beacuse of the obscure stocks like this that were presented. I couuld not get past the low volunme for me needs. Perhaps it is just a rumor stock which to play can be very lucartive if you are in it on the day the rumors fly, but painful to hold and wait for them. The spread just too big for me. But I love to see these ideas come up from time to time.
Goons out today again...you can't be a bear right now. They won't let this bad boy start slidin. I must see it fo what it is.
This mkt shuold fall hard. butt that is only "should". WILL it is a differnt matter. The powers that be want it inflated. They want and need all inflated. Maybe we all need it inflated for our own sake. I just don't believe it possible to sustain this hot air environment.
defltion will kill gold along with everything else. Only safe place for deflation is cash money and treasury. But you are right, will the Fed be able to beat mother nature. If you know the answer to tht question you know it all!
Short gold, short equity, long dollar. Thats where I'm at.
This is a paper bull. Volume is declining day after day. But how much will the pooters run it up before they can no longer hold out.
Even so. It seems like every goon out there feels like he missed the boat on dis rally so will they buy every little dip?
Shat I dunno.
ah wel
Why is this over-hyped market continuing to go up. Who continues to load at these levels?
Two books I recommend:
If you are interested that is.
1) And Then the Roof Caved In, By David Faber
2) A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, by Larry McDonald
Suggest reading them in that order as Faber's book is very good at explaining how this whole debt fueled mortgage scam occurred. I saw it first hand with people right in my neighborhood, and the epicenter of the stink, Irvine, CA is not far from me. It was no different than the bucket shops of the early 1900's, only this time they were selling cheap debt.
So many bogus mortgage shops and businesses were popping up in the business parks over there it was phenomenal.
Two books I recommend:
If you are interested that is.
1) And Then the Roof Caved In, By David Faber
2) A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers, by Larry McDonald
Suggest reading them in that order as Faber's book is very good at explaining how this whole debt fueled mortgage scam occurred. I saw it first hand with people right in my neighborhood, and the epicenter of the stink, Irvine, CA is not far from me. It was no different than the bucket shops of the early 1900's, only this time they were selling cheap debt.
So many bogus mortgage shops and businesses were popping up in the business parks over there it was phenomenal.
fortunately....NO! I guess this green crap is just lip service.
Anyone see anything they like about JASO? chartwise?
JASO and LDK report earnings. Did these co.'s get any growth from teh green crwd in DC?
Anyone familiar with Prechter?
In late February, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said "cover your shorts," and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range.
With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."
"The big question is whether the rally is over," Prechter says, suggesting "countertrend moves can be tricky" to predict. But the veteran market watcher is "quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we've already experienced," and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.
Anyone else bearish? I am trying to not get caught up in only reading what I agree with. But I was reading something I agree with today. What you think?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/154024-why-another-stock-market-collapse-could-be-imminent?source=hp_mostpopular
I agree with your strategy. I have been trying to do the similar. You are correct about avoiding bearish plays if anything economically sensitive is going to come out as the current political/media hacks will trumpet anything and everything as absolute proof that their schemes are working.
I have now 1/3 of my portfolio into bear plays (which is my max for broad-market direction strategy) I should have been long with this strategy, but now can't feel to switch it to bull side. I dink and dunk with 10-15% for short term day/week trades. And the other 50% I trade into and out of the Long Term treasury (TLT). I went fully into TLT today at the close with my max there. I've been running this allocation strategy since mid 2007, when I sensed the massive financial collapse being much bigger than just S.Cal. The lunacy I observed here trumped anything I have ever seen in my life. People with no money and no viable income being able to purchase $500k homes and condos. In my neighborhood, which is very old, very tiny houses, they have bars on the windows, but 2 or 3 $40k SUV's in the driveway they bought by taking all the equity out of these little shacks. These are people with little to no education who can't shift to different kind of jobs when their labor jobs get eliminated. Now they are foreclosing and the repo man comes as often as the mail man for those SUV's.
Yes. Me and Mauldin are the last bear's standin. I cannot hope to continue to keep myself floating by getting lucky on putting lots of chips on day trade stock plays. I have basically tread water by hitting a couple of big short term movers. But that is fools gold. At some point I must be right on the major market trend, and I have been severely wrong for nearly 4 weeks.
I got 22% pop out of JOBS. But getting reemed by the (jobs report) on my short positions. Oh well, I check my accoutn and it is even this morning, so I guess I shouldn't complain. Hoiw much more this market can go up? I am scratching my head and my nuts but get no answer.
JOBS is up 17% in afterhours. If that holds to morning the chart will show a nice breakout pattern and perhaps attract more buyers. I think it could go anothr $2 p/s to $16.
taking a gamble on JOBS. a chinese staffuing agency. where yoo go if yoo want a job in china?
you were 100% correct on that theory. Very nice manuever.
Here is another blog talking about the anemic volume this rally has been running on. http://seekingalpha.com/article/153555-five-reasons-the-market-could-crash-this-fall?source=email
That is interesting blog. Is that your's? thank you for posting it. There is much out there to study about this market now for sure.
I am getting frustrated with my shorts. So could this mean that a top is nearing? Well, I suppose not, a top will be in when I throw in the towell in on my shorts! The buyers are just continuing thinking they are missing out. However, I maintain the volume is too weak and these are phony bulls. They will run the other direction quickly. Ok my two cents. Now I am going into the city today. Wish me luck, it is always an adventure.
That ZLC was a good one too. But I never would have thought abuot buying Zale Jewelry stores! I seen their stores in the mall and they always empty. The hoods in LA get their bling from the black market or steal it, how do Zale compete with that?
wow. you see what CNXT do today? I sold it last week at 1.67, saw it at 1.41 after I sell, think make smart trade, now today it go to 1.93. too bad for me. but I still make some profit on trade.