I agree with your strategy. I have been trying to do the similar. You are correct about avoiding bearish plays if anything economically sensitive is going to come out as the current political/media hacks will trumpet anything and everything as absolute proof that their schemes are working.
I have now 1/3 of my portfolio into bear plays (which is my max for broad-market direction strategy) I should have been long with this strategy, but now can't feel to switch it to bull side. I dink and dunk with 10-15% for short term day/week trades. And the other 50% I trade into and out of the Long Term treasury (TLT). I went fully into TLT today at the close with my max there. I've been running this allocation strategy since mid 2007, when I sensed the massive financial collapse being much bigger than just S.Cal. The lunacy I observed here trumped anything I have ever seen in my life. People with no money and no viable income being able to purchase $500k homes and condos. In my neighborhood, which is very old, very tiny houses, they have bars on the windows, but 2 or 3 $40k SUV's in the driveway they bought by taking all the equity out of these little shacks. These are people with little to no education who can't shift to different kind of jobs when their labor jobs get eliminated. Now they are foreclosing and the repo man comes as often as the mail man for those SUV's.
