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Holey Cow. It sure is getting difficult for me to maintain my bearishness. Starting to wonder if it is me that is Looney Tunes. Sure we all know there will be at least a 20% correction! But maybe the damn thing will come from 12,000 back to 10,000.
IN the meantime the goons are destroying my currency and forcing me to spend these worthless pieces of crap on something, anything, just don't save your money you fools!
HOLE BUTTS!
This morning when my radio alarm went off, I heard this statement from some Goon regarding the unemployment figure exceeding 10%:
"The unemployment number went over 10.2% becuase the job market is so strong right now that it's drawing people who had dropped out of the job market back to seeking jobs."
I could make so many sarcastic statements about the above quote, but I am sure these are just too obvious.
Yea I could see a double top as well being likely. I tell you the thing I really undersetimate is the stupidity of the masses. All these people blindly listen to these so-called "financial advisors" who all have the same desire, which is too just get assets under management. The advisor must tell people to "get in", "stay in" and "never get out" to keep their fat paycheck. The masses are a combination of dumb, gullible and just too busy to do anything but listen to the advisor, who is thought to possess some sort of knowledge about the future. Over the last 30 years it has been shown that profits at financial services firms have increased significantly, while average returns for the investor have stagnated, and adjusted for inflation, in real terms are simply flat. Normalized long term returns have simply been redistributed to Wall Street.
A rational person understands this and therefore struggles with the insanity of buying into this hype, however, if insanity is the word of the day, then the sane become the insane for not following along with the herd. There is safety in numbers even if the herd is running in the wrong direction.
Clearly what is happening now is just another carry-trade, this time using the US dollar. Borrow at 0% and buy risky assets. My problem and most of main street for that matter is that I/we can't borrow money this time. The ones who can borrow are the ones who were either bailed out, or don't need to borrow and therefore are allowed to borrow all the free money they want.
Thats my rant.
Will this be the right shoulder? Or will it just be another roll down followed by a higher high? If we don't make a higher high, then I will get short and see what happens.
You mentioned testing the bears resolve. Damn Straight. I am coming to loathe the market. I can no longer bring myself to consider going long due to my pessimistic bias. However, I am being tormented daily by these rallies which I view to be insane, but how can they be insane when so much money believes the inverse?
Schwab just announced they are offering NO commission Schwab index ETF's if you trade through your Schwab account. Right now they only have broad indexes, but I would think the day is coming where they will offer a pretty good line-up, maybe even some inverse ETF's. I would like to see Schwab buyout Pro-Shares and offer their ETF's for no commission!
Hopefully these things will trade with enough volume to make them tradeable.
thansk I'll check it out. I got to say, and maybe I'm too bearish, but I think 8000 will be seen in 2010. I really think this move from about 8k to 10k has been nothing but over-hype. There is no job growth, and the earnings are only there because the TARP. Once that is gone, its going to be downward escalator back to reality. HOWEVER, I don't think the March lows will be broken in 2010.
If we are going to see any bigger downside in the next couple months, Dow needs to crack and close below 9600. I think that would be enough to cause some technical damage plus get a little fear that its over.
Can you recommend a board that is fairly active on the T/A of the major markets? One that is free?
What do you think about this pullback here? Start of something bigger or just another tiny blip and then another move up?
I'm kind of thinking there won't be much downward pressure until after the first of the year. I think lots of people will book their gains under the assumption that 2010 is going to be sideways at best and potentially down big if a double-dip occurs.
Is it only two people on this board? DOW fighting to not break its 50 day ema.
First time SP go below the 50 ema since July. I think at minimum a test of the 200 day ema is in order, which would be a 12% correction. If break below the 200, then you might see a little panic from the bulls fearing to give up huge gains to rapidly.
SRS still struggling below its 50 ema. I need a break up thru to give me confidence to buy.
PSQ looks to be breaking up through...tech is clearly overbought.
SEF has broken thru 50 for first time since MARCH!
But you are 100% right about it not being just a flush. Must punish the shorts on this too.
I did the same thing. Actually I was out of pocket almost all day yesterday doing "in-processing" paperwork, however, I thought your SRS idea to be a good one. If I had access to a computer I would have bought some. Oh well. Snooze you lose!
Today is the reason you can't short anything right now. BS market is what it is. Unreasonable, unrealistic hype. We should be in line for some sort of 10-15% pullback, no traction.
It will never happen. The goons make the rules. Why would we let you in?!?! Somebody has to pay for the largesse.
You should all know that I am now officially a "GOON". If I get any worthwhile insider goon information I will make it available to you here on tis board. Please don't tell the goons I have infiltrated their network. It is a lengthy, sticky and convoluted maze I have entered. Once inside you never leave. But it pays well and the benefits we goons give ourselves are quite favorable.
Yep. If it can bust up thru the 50 day ema looks damn good to me for at least 20% before hitting some resistance around 13.
I like.
Looks like we need to break thru the 50 day ema, and you will be proven correct. Check out the little head and shoulders top and subsequent failure on X. I'm not playing this short, but I sure should have been. I was long on this thing for 3 days up around 45-50, right when you called those other little steel stocks. I hadn't looked at it until today and it was set up for the perfect short after that right shoulder was formed. If you happen across any of these post on this board!
I start my new job in 3 weeks. Back on the payroll for me. This time its a govt job. If you can't beat the goons, join em.
Any of you blokes trading geniuses?
http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/107984/site-lets-investors-see-and-copy-experts-trades?mod=retire-planning
No reason to be sorry. I aint feelin sorry for myself. It is what it is. I think we have some fundamental problems that are finally being exposed. For too long people in this country were making lots of money by not producing anything or doing much of anything to create value anywhere. In my case I was able to leverage debt, buy property and live a nice life on the cash flows. As long as my property values were rising, I had no troubles. But as soon as they plunged, then the bankers wanted me to reduce the leverage. I couldn't do it when my tenants stopped paying me or were late all the time. So I got the bank breathing down my neck and I am breathing down the neck of some unemployed family. We're all looking for cash and it just aint there. Hose Bag city for everyone!
Well. In 4 weeks I am going back to real job. I had been able to live a reasonably cushy existence on rental income from several apartment buildings I bought before the West Coast real estate crash. Tenents were stable and steady payors. For the last 2 years I have been dealing with nothing but headaches, evictions, and people trashing my places, because they are po'ed at the world and have no money so they don't care about anything. I got out of my last building and took a big ass hit on it, but I just don't want to deal with being a lord anymore.
So now I got 4 weeks to trade like a mo-fo, make some scratch back and then its back to the grind for me. And a grind it shall be! Unfortunately, my scratch pile has once again been rendered so small as a result of trying to sell my last building, I am down to the nub.
There are tons of people like me out here who have had it too damn easy for the last 6-7 years. REALITY BITES.
do you guys have "paycheck" jobs or trade full time?
I've just been sitting on my ass smoking this crack market. I can't bring myself to buy long and shorting is a waste of effort and $$ it seems right now. So while I sit, the value of my freaking US Dollar denominated holdings erode slowly before my eyes.
This is the desired effect the goons are driving for. No one wants to hold any cash right now, you got to buy simething, anything. Stocks, gold, bonds, RE, anything BUT US DOLLARS. I underestimated their ability to force this upon us.
I think the market will keep rallying into the end of the year now on lighter and lighter volume. Correction of worthwhile magnitude will occur sometime in 2010 when reality starts to bite again.
This is not a statement that gold is in a bubble or going to a bubble. It is a statement about those who say the price is going to $Xxxx.
I still remember back in early 2000, when I read that many analysts were saying that Qualcomm was going to dominate the wireless space for years to come and the price was going to $1000, perhaps even $1500 (the price at the time was about $400). These were supposed to be smart guys who knew more than the average bear.
If anyone followed these geniouses, after almost 10 years they are still down 35% on their investment.
But I get the impression that this is predominantly a technical board and doesn't get caught in hype (near as much), but rather tries to play the hype. Ultimately it matters not what is a bubble. We all hope to find bubbles and ride them before they burst.
Just my daily rant. And I found some Goons trying to monitor my frequency yesterday. Tin foil hats are no match for their machinery they have today.
Don't be messin with the Goons! I seen em! HAHAHA. Just funnin man. Got have a sense of humor to play this game. I spent too much time in corporate America around REAL LIVE GOONS making dummass decisions every day based on they own greed and stupidity.
I am tellin you some of the crap you see being done right now is by the same idiots who caused this mess in the first place.
You see them GOONS come out this morning. Should have bust throght the 50 day ema and tanked. But the goons they be watchin this too.
oh yes.. Goon fed and goon hyped rally, at least for the last 20-25% or so. When the goons leave the room we will all know it.
This whole market is being led by the Goons. Don't underestimate their power or meddling capability and ability to manipulate. They stay in the "shadows".
The goons have been workin overtime. They might be runnin out of gas.
Hey Mr. Prophet? you thinks the goons are done for awhile? Or they gonna keep primin the pump?
steel to pharma! I think I like AGEN best of these, at least the chart, me thinks. know nothing about the company.
freakin goons
I think you should hold to 30!
agree
Dude, I hears ya. With them goons out this thick right now. They got free money to do it with. As long as that is the gig...what can you do? Join em I guess, only my money aint free. It's like a bad carnival is in town and there is no other entertainment other than an old hooker with a woorms in her snatch, so you go to the carnival.
I sure do like the weekly chart of MEA. What you think about it?
Yo Prophet? You still like them steel stocks? I am particularly looking at buying back into GNA and also buying USAP here abouts. charts be lookin interestin to me after they pull back from that pop last week.
Maybe next couple days get some more sellin and then they be primed for anothe go. what you think?
Up 1/2% almost daily. How bizarre. It's like a programmed mechanical rise. It appears to be emotionless. Only goons function without emotion because they have nothing to lose.
I have put on a tinfoil hat to keep the goons from knowing my thoughts...If I go into the sun too long, my head may turn into a baked potato. Anyone got any sour cream?
Do you ever look at fibonnaci's? If so, I note that the market has retraced 50% of it's drop from the recent high. It did the exact same thing in 2003 into 2004, 2004 started the year with about 6 months of drift down after hitting 50%. This was during the go-go years of merger mania and house flipping flim flam riches.
I expect the next 6 months to be similar to the first 6 months of 2004, only this time there won't be any turn and run-up. This time I think it will be stagnation for months and years that bleeds it down.
Yes, I think this matches what you say.
Mr. Prophet? Do you like any sectors this week to probe into?
I'm outa shorts, all cash at the moment, generally favoring that market is down for the week. But the goons are still running the show, so it will probably end up. I might do nothing this week unless I see something really enticing.
Is trading your full time gig?
I'm tempted to short SPG again. Burned the last time, fortunately I cut losses fairly quick last time, as this bitch exploded up on me.
Mr. Prophet, that was such a great call on not only one stock but 4 just before each one popped majorily. Here is a question which of course I know is very difficult to answer and each situation must be evaluated, however, generally, do you find that after you have hit on one or perhaps a couple 10-15% pops in a day or two, do you suggest selling into that and letting go, or do you to try to stay on for a few more days to see for follow-thru?
It is, of course, very tempting to take fast gains off the table, but letting winners run can also be lucrative. Do you have any types of rules you follow or just go with a gut feel on each one?
That was a great timing on that list of steel plays. I looked at USAP and just didn't go for it because the volume seemed to thin, but it was definitly a nice mover, and in hindsight was probably the best looking of all 4 of the charts. Kicking myself over not going with that one as well.
However, this steel trade salvaged for me, what had been a terrible past 4 weeks.
Thank You again Mr. Prophet. I took yor advise and bought GNA and CPSL. Theese picks you presented also caused me to look into the bigger name steel stocks, and I also bought a bunch of X. All have presented me with me a nice PROPHET this morning, of which I took half and will let the other ride a bit longer. My hat is off to you for keying on this sector.
This gain helped me make up for some of the blunders I have made of recent. I also like very much the type of flag and pennant patterns you seem to favor.
Where and how are you finding these?