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Totally agree. Strange that everyone here has been saying for months "well Q4 isn't going to be that great with impairment charges and the production not taking off until January" and then seems bummed when they turn out to be exactly right.
If it's too much risk, then I totally agree, don't bother with an investment in this state of flux.
However, the fact remains that NOBODY really knows what's going on here. Everything people point out and say indicate BK is also extremely common during restructuring, especially a retirement plan blackout.
In my opinion, the problem with SUNE has always been that it's finances are overly complex, and investors can't really interpret their financial statements easily. I think that the company is undergoing major restructuring in order to create internal systems that make things like debt and ongoing revenue streams easier to interpret.
When they come out of this it won't be in BK (largely because none of their debts are due for two years), but they probably won't look anything like the SUNE of 2015.
But none of their loans are due until 2018.
Over/under on when we find out what the hell is going on: April 15
I'm not understanding what you're saying here...the company's last PR was about a scientific paper that was correlated to their license programs. How is this different? Are you agreeing or disagreeing that this means Pfizer wants to move forward with ponezumab for CAA?
Try again. Go to the paper and click the button by "author information" and tell me who the first two authors work for.
Mystifying that there's no PR about this. Looks like the Phase II for cerebral amyloid angiopathy was successful. Not sure about the meaning of the multiple dates, but it seems maybe the research was submitted in October and published in February.
So, possible reasons for the absence of a PR:
1. Waiting for announcement of Phase III
2. Waiting for buyout offer from Pfizer
3. The best possible case, FA trial from Shire was successful and the company is entertaining competing bids from Pfizer and Shire...
When was this published and why no PR?
Glad to see the .084's dried up.
Glad to see the .084's dried up.
Any particular reason?
Being long on SUNE is one hell of a roller-coaster ride.
This is interesting. I didn't expect to break that resistance organically.
Sadly, that's a great sign for SUNE.
Does this give them the excuse they've been looking for to walk away?
Good morning! Everyone feeling vindicated today?
Any idea why the last two filings haven't made it to the board?
Very interesting. On paper the deal doesn't really necessarily solve any problems for SUNE, but it does free up their leadership team to focus on some of the other issues. They've been tied up with this deal (and its impending deadline) for a while now. Lots of investors feared that they simply wouldn't be able to get everything managed in time to avoid dire straits. This is one step in the right direction...now they have some problems to solve in South America and should probably get a couple of assets sold to free up cash.
There is some good news, though. The deal has been amended to a reduced share price and the yieldco is paying less cash, so they were at least able to make it more reasonable. However, with stock and other things included in the transaction, it looks like it's still not great for SUNE, but at least it isn't disastrous.
The reason no one is talking about it is because it isn't news. Of course Vivint wants to deal to happen, they get $15 per share and they're only trading at $5. But the deal sucks for SUNE, both because they overvalued Vivent and because the yieldco resisting the transition makes it really hard for them to come up with the cash. If you were paying any attention you'd known that this deal, along with a handful of other legal issues, is the main reason we're trading this low. You should be rooting against it.
No, I think the only outcome insiders are looking for is a complete sale of the company. Nobody wants to operate the company, manage the portfolio, ink licensing deals, etc. I think they want to sell the thing and hand it off to a big company, and they can't do that without the commons being bought as well.
The analyst reports quoted here are a little old, don't you think?
Most recent ponz trial not for AZ.
I'm guessing this means your perspective is that the ponezumab Phase II trial was successful and the recent activity is a result of that?
What news are you expecting?
What do you guys think is the most likely news? SHP-622 to Phase II with a milestone payment? Shire buyout? Pfizer Phase III? A research breakthrough?
While I think there's a good case for BAA to stay on the NYSE, I'm also not sure this is a stock that would really be affected by delisting. The institutional investors and major funds that own BAA are already the type who play in OTCs. It would only be smaller private investors who get scared and drop off, and we've all seen the impact that low volume sentiment changes have on the price here (none).
The questions for Banro is no longer whether or not their value will skyrocket, but when. They now have multiple flywheels of revenue, gold prices are reversing upward, and they have the foreseeable future well-funded to manage the debt. As an investor who plays pretty much exclusively in small, undervalued companies, I don't think there's a single investment I'm more confident in that BAA. The only question is how long I have to hold to start seeing it pay off.
I think Einhorn has made it clear that he disapproves of the deal and the debt issues that they've gotten themselves into.
Agreed. Even if they have to pay a ridiculous sum of money to back out of the deal, it would be HUGE for their long-term value.
That's two major investors increasing their holdings within a week. Considering that absolutely nothing has happened here in many months, I'd be very surprised if this weren't signaling something important.
While the volume is obviously still minuscule here, there is an unusual amount of activity here today in terms of number of transactions. Twelve buys and one sell today. Usually we get maybe one or two.
Why is their 10-Q not showing up here?
If you believe that the stock is worth $11, then it's easy money at all of those. The thing about being a long and being a value investor is that you have to ride out the short-term disappointments in the name of a long-term win. If you're a daily or a weekly trader, though, yeah, lots of bad decisions made here.
Seventeen shares traded today. Seems about right.
How many more shares do you think Einhorn has bought today?
Shire earnings report released today. SHP-622 still listed in the pipeline.
I'm digging the feeling that an investment I wrote off so long ago as a complete bust now seems to have some potential to actually pan out.
Wealthy people don't get that way by viewing their money as disposable pocket change. I'm sure if he's investing money then he thinks there's a good chance it will pay off.
Longs will have the last laugh. Eighteen months from now this will be unrecognizable.
I don't understand it either. The thing about debt is...you can buy your way out of it, and BAA is going to do just that.