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Let me see if I got this right...
1- There are serious questions concerning the transfer/sell/disposition of the IP
2- There is now another serious question as to what our CEO said at a conference.
3- There is now another call for letter writing concerning #2 above
I just finished packing for a vacation that was planned many months ago. We will be leaving for the airport tomorrow morning at zero dark thirty. I will have limited WIFI availability for the following week. I will be returning AFTER the ASM occurred. What will be will be…
I must say that I’m a little bit disappointed that only 29 people affirmed, writing a letter, that is in their own best interest. And now a second apparent reason to write.
So…
Now I will re-name the list…
Honorable Crusaders of an apparent lost cause:
1. golfho
2. eb0783
3. trader
4. peregr
5. biopharm
6. Mauiziomh
7. unpathedhaunt
8. Wernaaa
9. sunstar
10. Jerry200
11. patientlywaiting
12. rjurko
13. atonewith PPHM
14. swg_tdr
15. bfiest
16. shipbuilder
17. JJ1223
18. Mmignot
19. zoom22
20. revenue_monster
21. goodplenty100
22. keep_trying
23. serene (1)
24. serene (2)
25. JCNJ
26. PGG76109 (maybe)
26 is not enough…
FWIW
Why the semi-rant…
Because the questions you raised NEED TO BE ANSWERED…
And more…
Everyone attending should press for answers.
I wish I could be there.
Regards
golfho
CP…
You, as one of the original advocators of letter writing to the BOD have not indicated whether you and your associates wrote your letters yet. Have You? Have your associate? How many?
Latest List of Letter Writers:
1. golfho
2. eb0783
3. trader
4. peregr
5. biopharm
6. Mauiziomh
7. unpathedhaunt
8. Wernaaa
9. sunstar
10. Jerry200
11. patientlywaiting
12. rjurko
13. atonewith PPHM
14. swg_tdr
15. bfiest
16. shipbuilder
17. JJ1223
18. Mmignot
19. zoom22
20. revenue_monster
21. goodplenty100
22. keep_trying
23. serene (1)
24. serene (2)
25. JCNJ
25 is not enough…
Regards
golfho
Born on Friday evening...
Congratulation...Number 33
Regards
golfho
Hi North40K
I’m not familiar with the Amylin process but it appears that they succeeded in receiving multiple bids. Selecting the highest bid without considering other factors such as fit, synergy, competence in the acquirers’ skill set & compatibility among other factors, is not the best answer as well.
My concern was and still is…That we undergo the most rigorous process to extract the best deal.
That should be intuitive to everyone on this board…
Why many have chosen to do nothing is most amazing to me…!!!
patientlywaiting:
Hello my friend…
I would like to think that everything will work out well in the end…
But I have my reservations…
Latest List of Letter Writers:
1. golfho
2. eb0783
3. trader
4. peregr
5. biopharm
6. Mauiziomh
7. unpathedhaunt
8. Wernaaa
9. sunstar
10. Jerry200
11. patientlywaiting
12. rjurko
13. atonewith PPHM
14. swg_tdr
15. bfiest
16. shipbuilder
17. JJ1223
18. Mmignot
18 is not enough…
CP, have you and your friends written your letters yet? You were one of the advocates for this.
Regards
golfho
Interesting...
Roger Lias on 12-2017 CC
Latest list of letter writers:
1. golfho
2. eb0783
3. trader
4. peregr
5. biopharm
6. Mauiziomh
7. unpathedhaunt
8. Wernaaa
9. sunstar
10. Jerry200
11. patientlywaiting
12. rjurko
13. atonewith PPHM
14. swg_tdr
14 is not enough...!!!
Regards
golfho
Hi north40000...
Every approach is valid. There is no wrong or right way to express what we all desire and that is...A thorough process that assures that we get maximum value for the IP.
If you thing that what you suggest would be effective, send it to them. I know that you will be at the ASM, perhaps you can question them directly.
I wish I could go because I thing this one will be trans-formative.
Regards
golfho
I’d like to clarify some things…
I have confidence that the new board is independent. That’s not the point of any of my posts. My concern is their focus. Their focus is on growing AVID. I’ll say that again. Their focus is on growing AVID. The IP is something that NONE of them were familiar with prior to coming aboard. Their only source of information would come from the remaining staff and perhaps some of the already departed individuals. If a nucleus of a deal was agreed upon prior to there arrival, if they were told that “after an exhaustive search this is the best offer we received.” Most reasonable people will quickly review it and agree to the terms because again the focus is on AVID.
It is that review that I want them to focus on. I want them to be aware of the need to extensively review any previous process, to question every aspect.
We now have 10 business days left before the ASM. We now know that Stephanie was on a vacation and had not read or opened her inbox until yesterday. She stated that the e-mail she received were passed along. I don’t doubt her. However, if you don’t trust that path, you have the other 2 avenues, certified mail or direct e-mail.
Latest contact information:
Board of Directors, c/o Joseph Carleone, Ph.D.,
Chairman of the Board of Directors, Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
2642 Michelle Drive, Tustin, California 92780
E-mail option:
boardofdirectors@peregrineinc.com
NOTE: Communications may be addressed to the Chairman of the Board, an individual director, a Board committee, the non-management directors, or the full Board.
All other discussions on this board about sleazy former BOD, incompetence of the previous management, maleficence by outside agents is of little importance. We can only influence today and tomorrow. History is important to learn but, what we do with the lessons learned is the only thing that counts.
As I stated in a previous post:
FWIW...
I received the same response today as well...
Thanks for sharing.
In My Humble Opinion...
More shareholders need to reiterate the message.
By the time the ASM occurs, our message must sound like an on-coming Tsunami.
Thanks to all and, note the new signature.
I don't intend to hang alone.
Regards
golfho
Dear fellow Ihubers…
We have 11 business day’s left before the ASM. I know that several of you have sent e-mails to Stephanie over the last week. It’s possible that she might have taken a holiday vacation and has not read or opened her inbox. It’s equally possible, that she forwarded the e-mails to the intended recipients but not informed the sender. And, it’s also equally possible, that she received them and did not forward them.
In any case, if you think that sending a letter or e-mail to the Board & CEO will increase our changes of getting a fair deal for the IP, if you think that sending a letter or e-mail to the Board & CEO will increase our changes of a more open, transparent process. Then you need to write it NOW DIRECTLY.
Latest contact information:
Board of Directors, c/o Joseph Carleone, Ph.D.,
Chairman of the Board of Directors, Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
2642 Michelle Drive, Tustin, California 92780
E-mail option:
boardofdirectors@peregrineinc.com
NOTE: Communications may be addressed to the Chairman of the Board, an individual director, a Board committee, the non-management directors, or the full Board.
As I stated before. “If they get one single letter nothing will happen. If they get some letters something might happen. If they get a bunch of letters there's a good chance that something good will happen.”
Regards
golfho
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL...
A little help please. It was stated that the Ronin group and the former BOD signed a non-disclosure agreement. Can anyone point me to the document that states that?
Thanks in advance
Regards
golfho
FWIW…
This morning I mailed my 7 letters to all board members via certified mail to the address that 4OurRetirement supplied. It may not be necessary to send mail to all of them but, at a minimum, letters to the Chairman Joseph Carleone Ph.D. and Roger J. Lias, CEO & board member should be sent. The cost is minimal $3.84 per letter. I can’t say this enough times…Everyone should write to the board. If only a few write, nothing will happen.
Regards
golfho
I cannot tell you how...
valuable that information is to us and it was right under our noses...Kinda...!!!
Letters will be flying out tomorrow morning by me...And I'm sure by others.
Thanks again.
Regards
golfho
Thanks for the reply & info...
My response to multiple posts:
Because I’m fundamentally lazy…
I’m going to respond to several posts at one time. North40K, WRT your post #321290
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.
biopharm;
I'm responding to this post of yours from a while back because it seems that no one else took up the call. I wrote a draft copy that I intend to send to the BOD & senior management. I wrote to Stephanie Diaz a few days ago requesting contact info on our new BOD. her response was that there is no corporate contact info that she could provide and that if I wanted to communicate with them I should send my letter to her and she would forward it.
Here's my draft letter. Before I sent it out I would like comments/corrections/additions/deletions from all. If anyone can find a better way to communicate with the individual BOD please provide.
If they get one single letter nothing will happen. If they get some letters something might happen. If they get a bunch of letters there's a good chance that something good will happen.
Letter to BoD
The upcoming Quarterly:
What do I expect…???
In August they issued a PR announcing a workforce reduction. “The Company expects the workforce reductions to result in a net cost savings of between $3.7 million and $4.3 million in fiscal year 2018” Because I expect that there will be one-time charges that must cover severance pay, unpaid vacation, etc. I expect the overall cost saving will not be reflected in this quarterly report. But, going forward it will reduce the annualized operating expenses by ~$4M over the remaining 2 quarters.
If they are on track to hit their projected revenue target of ~$50M to $55M they should report around $12.5M to $13.75M this quarter. However, knowing how choppy revenue can be per quarter, I’ll be looking at backlog, unshipped inventory and of course, any change in projections and most importantly cash on hand.
From the last 10-Q
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the first quarter was $ 37,256,000
NET DECREASE IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: (9,543,000)
I do not expect anything earth shaking. But, perhaps something uplifting.
Current Market Cap. for AVID:
As of the close of trading we have a Market Cap of ~$238.M.
I wrote the following a while back:
“What does one of the most prestigious sources (NYU-Stern Business School) say about this?
pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html
Industry Name:
Drugs (Biotechnology)
Number of firms:
426
Price/Sales:
5.82
Net Margin:
15.45%
EV/Sales:
6.57
Pre-tax Operating Margin:
27.89%
I know we’ve been over this several times before but, it needs to be reviewed again.
Projected annual revenue = ~$50M to ~$55M let’s use the average = ~$52.5M
Using Steve Kings very conservative multiples you get the following for Market Cap (EV = Enterprise Value = MC):
At a multiple of 2 = $105M
At a multiple of 3 = $157.5M
At a multiple of 4 = $210M
At a multiple of 5 = $262.5M
Now using the NYU-Stern Business School AVERAGE multiple of 6.57 you get:
6.57 X ~$52.5M = ~$344.9M”
The last reported number of outstanding share was ~45.2M and no shares were sold by the company as there is no ATM in place.
At a multiple of 6.57 (THE AVERAGE) the current share price should be ($344.9M/45.2M shares) = ~$7.63 per share.
This extensive database from NYU-Stern Business School contains data from 426 Biotechnology companies whose AVERAGE gross margin is 27.89%. AVID’s gross margin is ~45%...Doesn’t that merit a premium? Isn’t that above average?
I have independent confirmation from someone that I consider a very knowledgeable person, state that the multiple should be higher than 6.57.
The recently reported WSJ projection of $10 a share is well within reason NOW.
EXOSOME-BASED CANCER DETECTION & MONITORING TECHNOLOGY:
Liquid biopsy POC completed and negotiations occurring as I write in an industry that has been estimated to be huge. Cowen & Co, Piper Jaffrey and others have reviewed and provided estimates that range from $10B to $200B. I would like to turn everyone’s attention to swg_tdr’s 4 part assessment of EXOSOME pricing starting with post #295706,8,10 & 12 back in April/May. He hypothesized that the liquid biopsy market can reach ~$67B annually in ~3 years.
Just a quick question...
How do I view my ignore list?
golfho
That's my understanding...EOM
Just some ruminations…
All of the following was written in the evening after a spectacular dinner and copious quantity of fine wine…
Well…What about the Reverse Split…
We’ve spent over a year with a SP under $1.00 and had two 180 day extensions…
The company stated that it was not in the best interest of the shareholders to initiate a RS and that they would appeal for an additional extension. We will hear about NASDAQ’s decision between now and 7-2-17 at the latest.
What is the company’s plan…???
1 - Expand AVID with the goal of achieving overall profitability by mid-2018. To that end they are expanding the Myford facility with two 2000L bioreactors. Per recent AVID PR the reactors are installed already. What’s needed is the completion of the supporting infrastructure and then a series of tests for certification from the FDA and the customer. NOTE: This facility has already gone through a rigorous certification process…Once that was achieved any further re-certification will be less arduous. Through the fabulous DD of several members of this board we can reasonably deduce that this expansion was to address a serious customer need for increased production. You know who… This is clearly not a case of “Build it an they will come” It is most likely a case of… We have an agreement that “If you build and get certified we will provide a minimum contract amount and if for any reason we decide to back out there will be forfeitures of deposits.
2 – The obsession of some shareholders with the ATM… I think that selling shares at the current price is very painful. But what are the alternative…??? They needed to expand the production capacity of AVID quickly. What were the alternatives…??? Do nothing…??? Or sell shares to expand AVID…??? That to me was what happened after the end of 3rd quarter and the March report during the CC where a significant number of shares were sold after the end of the last quarter. I predict a significant increase in capital expenses related to the construction of…”AVID II on Steroids”
Off Topic Aside: I take personal pride in copyrighting The Big Enchilada © and now… AVID II on Steroids © as the assumed AVID III space is now re-purposed.
3 – Exosome technology and the POC. I don’t recall where I read it but a while back I remember someone posting a second university that was investigating the use of PPHM’s Exosome assay for another cancer type. That implied to me that PPHM is looking to have independent verification from several un-affiliated peers to confirm the POC…Adding value to the technology.
4 – Bavituximab…Steve made a strategic decision years ago that implied that he was so confident in the ultimate success of the PS platform and having limited resources that he embarked on a strategy of validation through peers. These IST’s drove everyone crazy…They took forever to complete. In my View…Cynical as I am, I assumed that there was a risk that everyone that tested Bavituximab was also looking to find a way around the patent. At the end of the day we are where we are and that is that there is a very significant amount of validation from a wide field of renowned leaders that it is near impossible to deny the technology.
OK the wine is wearing off…Gotta Go…
Regards
golfho
About this recent run…
Some history:
From the first trading day of this calendar year to 2-2-17 we were trading in the range of $.28 to $.30 with an average of ~1.4M shares traded daily over the last trailing 30-day period. Over the next 9 trading days we went from $.30 to $.44, an increase of $.14 representing a 46% increase in price. Volume increased from ~1.4M shares daily to ~3.78M shares daily. And then came Friday…Friday…!!! The day of the week where short term traders close their positions. We traded in the range of $.45 to $.66 and closed at $.55 with 27M shares traded for the day. Is this the long (very, very, long) awaited signal that something is afoot…?
In My Humble Opinion…Not Yet…!!!
Why…? Or more bluntly…WTF are you talking about…!!!
Market Cap.
At of the close of trading we have a Market Cap of ~$141.4M. Let’s think about that for a moment. What does that represent in its simplest form?
1- Income stream now
2- Potential future income stream
That’s it, in a nutshell. Sure, there are many subtleties…But distilled to the most basic…The company’s value is based those two parameters…That’s it.
So, let’s start with number 1, income stream now.
Many of us have tried to determine what the value of AVID is; even Steve King threw out some numbers recently about the valuation of AVID. He implied that the ratio to use is in the range of 2 to 5 times sales.
What does one of the most prestigious sources (NYU-Stern Business School) say about this?
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html
Industry Name:
Drugs (Biotechnology)
Number of firms:
426
Price/Sales:
5.82
Net Margin:
15.45%
EV/Sales:
6.57
Pre-tax Operating Margin:
27.89%
I know we’ve been over this several times before but, it needs to be reviewed again.
Projected annual revenue = ~$50M to ~$55M let’s use the average = ~$52.5M
Using Steve Kings very conservative multiples you get the following for Market Cap (EV = Enterprise Value = MC):
At a multiple of 2 = $105M
At a multiple of 3 = $157.5M
At a multiple of 4 = $210M
At a multiple of 5 = $262.5M
Now using the NYU-Stern Business School AVERAGE multiple of 6.57 you get:
6.57 X ~$52.5M = ~$344.9M
The last reported number of outstanding share was ~257M. Let’s assume that some ATM was used since the last reported number, and estimate outstanding shares to be around 275M.
At the following multiples, the share price should be:
At a multiple of 2 = $.38
At a multiple of 3 = $.57
At a multiple of 4 = $.76
At a multiple of 5 = $.95
At a multiple of 6.57 (THE AVERAGE) = $1.25
This extensive database from NYU-Stern Business School contains data from 426 Biotechnology companies whose AVERAGE gross margin is 27.89%. AVID’s gross margin is ~45%...Doesn’t that merit a premium? Isn’t that above average?
That means that IF everything else is valued at 0; PPHM(AVID) should be valued at over a dollar TODAY…TODAY…!!!
REALLY? ZERO value for all aspects of the PS targeting technology…ZERO for:
EXOSOME-BASED CANCER DETECTION & MONITORING TECHNOLOGY:
Liquid biopsy POC completed and negotiations occurring as I write in an industry that has been estimated to be huge. Cowen & Co, Piper Jaffrey and others have reviewed and provided estimates that range from $10B to $200B. Let’s just calculate using the lowest estimate and apply a mere 10% market penetration…That’s $1B annually…Split that with a partner and estimate only a 25% share…Assume a 3 year development time and take any discount you like, let’s use a silly 25% annually. That very anemic valuation yields $105M. Let’s further assume a one times multiple only. That’s still $.38 a share…ZERO…??? REALLY…???
DISEASE TREATMENT:
In spite of the SUNRISE PIII failure, PS-targeting is not dead. There has been a steady stream of validations over the years from many different quarters. The MSK (Wolchok’S lab), NCCN and AZ collaborations, the KOL’s (Gabrilovitch, Birge, Brekken etc.)…PS-targeting will find NO application in the future…??? Really…??? NO application…??? No Partnership…???
ZERO…Really…???
I salute those who have been able to buy at these historically low levels. If I had any powder left, dry, wet or otherwise I would be buying more…And most likely immediately following; catch several bullets with my head…I’m also sure that my wife would succeed in a justifiable homicide defense.
CONCLUSION:
This recent rise in my view is much overdo. We should not have dipped below $1.00 even after the SUNRISE termination. A very large boot has been stepping on our throat for some time. It appears that it is now gone. Perhaps thing will return to normal. If ANY of the potential collaborations come to fruition; prior to any announcement we will see huge volume & price spikes and we will get back to $5.00 very quickly. This recent move IMHV is not that yet…It’s just getting back to where we should be.
On a personal note…I’ve returned to sleeping on the TOP of my bed not under it. I no longer sleep in the fetal position…However…I do on occasion still suck my thumb…!!!
Regards
golfho
Sorry, I thought I explained that in an earlier post...
The end of the 180 day extension is 4-10-17, this is a Monday. The requirement is that the stock must close over $1.00 for 10 consecutive business days. That brings us to my Drop Dead (D.D.) date of 3-24-17 (10 business days before the end of the extension)
Regards
golfho
Liquid Biopsy Companies and PPHM potential
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/five-companies-to-watch-liquid-biopsy-field
“A recent report by financial services firm Cowen & Co. said annual sales for the tools could surpass $10 billion”
The author of this article cites five companies that are pursuing this new and exciting field.
RainDance Technologies: A start-up that raised $60M in their IPO to pursue this field and is a DNA type analysis based technology claimed to be able to “detect mutations at a lower price.”
Qiagen: An established company that is in it already: “Qiagen ($QGEN) already has a handle on the liquid biopsy market, with kits that screen DNA and RNA from circulating tissue and purify RNA from exosomes to find abnormalities. But in the past year the company has carved a different path for itself in the field, striking deals with pharma companies to pair its technology with cancer drugs.” Is teamed up with AstraZeneca and Tokai Pharmaceuticals
Trovagene: “San Diego, CA-based Trovagene ($TROV) is taking a different approach to liquid biopsy, using urine to detect and monitor systemic cancers in patients. While the company offers blood- and urine-based molecular tests to measure cancer-related gene mutations from circulating tumor cells,”
Biocept: “Biocept ($BIOC) has not wasted any time developing its liquid biopsy technology since launching a small IPO in early 2014. The company raised $19 million to fuel commercialization of its OncoCEE-BR breast cancer test, a diagnostic tool that captures and analyzes circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) from a blood sample to evaluate a patient's cancer, treatment options and prognosis. In March, Biocept launched a diagnostic for non-small cell lung cancer that identifies EGFR mutations to help doctors find suitable treatments for patients”
Genomic Health: “Genomic Health ($GHDX) already has a track record of innovation, pioneering a multigene assay for cancer that looks at patients' tumor tissue at a molecular level to provide personalized information for treatment planning.”
A more recent article (1-14-16) featuring eight companies in the field:
http://www.nanalyze.com/2016/01/8-companies-developing-liquid-biopsy-cancer-tests/
“While over 38 companies are actively targeting this space, the below chart from Piper Jaffrey shows 6 key players that we’ll take a closer look at:”
A Balanced article from Bloomberg (4-6-16)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/cancer-blood-test-is-either-200-billion-market-or-a-pipe-dream
Of interest is the chart noting some of the investors involved and “An even bigger prize may be on the horizon: a simple-to-administer yet all-encompassing blood test that would screen for every kind of known cancer in the human body even before a person showed or felt any symptoms. Bezos, Gates and others are investing hundreds of millions of dollars to make such a super-screening test a reality. If they’re successful, the market opportunity may reach $200 billion a year in sales, according to the technology’s boosters.”
Also from a line in the above article:
“Grail is aiming to start a large-scale clinical trial in 2017 and a test for a single cancer condition in the same year. The pan-cancer test will be on the market in 2019, according to Illumina. It should cost less than $1,000, Flatley said”
And from the NCI:
https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/cancer-currents-blog/2016/asco-liquid-biopsy
So, from this brief intro we have the following info:
1 – Most of the current technology is centered around DNA sequencing
2 – The technology/development is still in its infancy
3 – BIG players are in or entering the field. Grail (Bezos & Gates), AstraZeneca, Abbott, Roche, Quest Diagnostics…There are at least 38 in total, pursuing this goal.
4 – The estimated annual market for liquid biopsies range from $20M to $200M within the next 10 years.
And..? You say…
Well the “And” is…
Now that PPHM has completed its proof of concept and published it, we can reasonably conclude that management is in negotiations with some or most of the above players.
That begs the question…When and how much?
So, let’s look at the “When” first and more importantly the process.
I think we can reasonably assume that management had drafted a proposal and sent it to as many prospective partners that they felt would be most interested in, or capable of, moving the technology forward; most likely that proposal was send out a few weeks ago. The business development departments of those prospective partners would need to discuss and then present the proposal to their management, which would then produce either a negative response or a “It sounds interesting…We have some issues…Blah…Blah…Blah…Let’s get together and talk.
At this point I will break away from my discussion on the process itself too address the reality, that management and us shareholders must deal with. The possible reverse split that must be instituted on or before 3-24-17. That leaves ~41 calendar days to complete this process (A signed agreement).
Now…If you are on the other side of the negotiation; would you be inclined to slow play these negotiation or fast track it?
I added that in for those posters that think that OUR management is slow playing this for some personal gain or some secret un-announced deal.
The point of the above is that this process will take months. The original announcement stated that they hoped to conclude a deal by mid-year. Can they conclude a deal before 3-24-17?
I wouldn’t bet on that. The odds are not in you favor.
So what would be the consequences? Up to a 7:1 reverse split. What then?
If they successfully conclude negotiation to partner their liquid biopsy technology by mid-year, the negative phycological impact of the RS would be gone and so would much of the financial doubt.
What about the “How much” part?
Well…I just realized that it’s after 2:00PM and I’ve been writing this post on and off for several hours. I think that this is an avenue that should be explored but not by me today.
Would anyone like to take a swing at it? It would be better and more productive than bad-mouthing and grousing about management…
No…???
Regards
golfho
Wook...
If you will...
Please post your entire e-mail to Stephanie. It seems like there is a lot of speculation about what the specific subject was and what the reply was referring to.
Thanks
golfho
Hi Wook…
WRT your friend's statement and the possible miss-understanding.
I am shocked...
That there was only one response to this post. I just returned from playing golf and got caught up with reading this board.
In my last two posts I stated that there was only one out of the four possible price movers that could be analyzed and possible be reported prior to the drop dead date of 3-24-17:
The four were:
Update to the SUNRISE biomarker analysis
A deal/partnering of the liquid biopsy effort
News on the AstraZeneca collaboration/partnership thing
Increased AVID revenue
The one evaluate-able price mover was the potential for and update on the AVID revenue. Additionally I hypothesized that the liquid biopsy effort would not be completed by that same drop dead date.
Leaving the potential of a RS a very real possibility.
There were and still are questions about the Bavituximab clinical trial collaboration/partnership thing. Are we in discussions with more than AZ?
Is AZ still a potential collaborator/partner?
We now know one thing…
PPHM and AZ are still planning to advance the Bavituximab/durvalumab CT for multiple cancers. THAT’S HUGH…!!!
Will they be able to conclude negotiation before 3-24-17? No one knows.
However I’ll be looking for that familiar pattern of increasing volume and price without news…
Regards
golfho
Hi patientlywaiting...
From the 7-14-16 PR:
Hi All;
Thanks for your replies and inputs.
I’m lazy…So I’ll respond to 3 posts at once…
eastcoastguy:
My bad, I was using an accountants term incorrectly and way to loosely. What I wanted to say was there will be bills & invoices associated with the purchase of equipment, material and construction cost that will require upfront deposits, possibly progress payments and final delivery payment that must be paid during the estimated 11 month construction period. How the balance those payments will become somewhat more apparent with the next quarterly.
eb0783:
Thank you again for your informative post; in particular the ASM reports. For several years I hoped to go. However, the timing never seems to work out. We are Snowbirds and leave NYC for Florida mid-October. Adding a trip to California would make things very hectic.
The three points (Opportunities to increase revenue) you bring up in your post; Water Purification Plant, Fill-n-Finish capability and double size and increase the number of the larger reactors did not go unnoticed by me when you posted your initial ASM report.
That is why I will be scanning for the quarterly PR and zeroing in on the backlog of orders. If the business is their they will build.
From your recollection what is your estimate of how much empty space is unused at AVID?
Tradero:
My friend and Excel partner…
How are you?
You wrote:
I got bored curled up under my bed…
So, I decided to review the last few years’ worth of 10K’s & 10Q’s.
And contemplate the future…
We are all hoping that management will conclude a collaboration/partnership sometime before the drop dead date of 3-24-17. That prospect looks dimer and dimer as days go by. So, at this point a RS is looking more and more likely. As CP pointed out, the RS will initially have zero impact on the market cap of the company other than a phycological impact. But let’s face it folks at a market cap of ~$74M how much lower can it go…??? By all reasonable assessments, the company should be trading around or above $1.00 just on AVID alone. If I had additional money I would be buying at these levels hand over fist…But I don’t…!!!
So, what do we have?
A prolonged period of time with no information; frustration and bashing on this board building to unseen before levels.
As ku and many others have stated repeatedly…The Boot that is stepping on our throat will not be lifted until there is a money producing deal…END OF STORY. DEAL WITH IT.
Management has three stated goal post SUNRISE failure:
1 – Overall profitability via AVID by June-July of 2018
2 – Partner the liquid biopsy assay technology and initiate partnering discussions for the program in 2017
I decided to stop sucking my thumb…
Un-curl from the fetal positions and crawl out from under my bed and take a look around.
WTF…Is going on…???
No update to the SUNRISE bio-marker analysis…
No deal yet with the liquid biopsy partnering effort…
No news on the AstraZeneca collaboration/partnership thing…Whatever that might be.
Only one of the three clinical trials sponsored by the NCCN has started and is not expected to be complete until 2020…
THE strangest quarterly conference call I ever heard in my entire life… WTF…No…No…No…??? What…??? Goodbye…
I could go on…
But why…???
Then there is AVID.
We had the first quarter report that had a hiccup and then the second quarter that reported very good revenue numbers.
At the beginning of the FY management guided expected revenue of between $50M and $55.
We now have an average for the first 6 month of this FY of $28,979,000, that would imply an annual revenue of ~$57.96M
What else…
In the first quarter PR the company stated that there was a backlog of orders to the amount of ~$71M. At the second quarter PR they stated that there was a backlog of ~$73M. Implied is that after delivering ~$23M in the most recent quarter there was a significant signing of new contracts that more than equaled the current contracts.
What else…
Inventory increased…
Differed revenue has increased…
What do I expect…???
More like what do I hope for…
I HOPE/EXPECT…That management will upgrade their guidance for revenue higher at the third quarter CC this March…
How higher…???
Pure speculation…
Assume that…per management guidance, each facility can produce about $40M each. Implied is that at full capacity both facilities can produce ~$80M annually. Maximum full capacity output for the next six months is ~$40M. That’s ~$20M per quarter…
So…Something between the current rate and the maximum capacity is a potential target. That’s…
Between ~$14.49M and ~$20M…Quarterly
We will know definitively around the second week of March.
Will that raise the PPS above the coveted $1.00 requirement…???
I have no freaking idea.
Under most reasonable standards we should be there already.
One of the sources of the headwinds is the fact that management is still selling shares on a regular basis. In my opinion part of that selling was prompted by the new rule on “Going Concern Clause” requiring a quarterly evaluation. But at the end of the day the reason is not important…The point that it is happening is key.
The Following are some interesting statistics (From intro):
Shares outstanding:
7-31-16: 241,456,721 -0- (7-31-16 10Q iss. 9-8-16)
9-2-16: 242,381,850 +925,129 (“ “ “)
10-31-16: 251,765,279 +9,383,429 (10-31-16 10Q iss. 12-12-16)
12-8-16: 257,141,534 +5,376,255 (“ “ “)
Shares sold:
Sold 9/9/16-10/31/16: $2,513,000gr. / 6,432,439sh. = $.39/sh.
Sold 11/1/16-12/12/16: $1,174,000gr. / 3,788,346sh. = $.31/sh.
Sold 9/9/16-10/31/16: $1,283,000gr. / 2,988,086sh. = $.43/sh.
Sold 11/1/16-12/12/16: $496,000gr. / 1,587,909sh. = $.31/sh.
NOTE:
After first quarter 10Q they raised $5.466M by selling 15,684,813 shares
So…Starting in September they dumped ~15.7M shares…Between $.31 to $.43…
From the 10Q
HI CP...
My biggest fear...
Management just discovered that someone spit into the vat of purified water and contaminated the entire quarterly output from AVID...
Yet more Fargo.
Curled in the fetal position under my bed until the second week in December...!!!
Regards
golfho
Please forward to Amy directly...
Thanks
golfho
Hi Biopharm...
Has anyone established who or what department in the SEC & Nasdaq gets this letter? I remember someone posting a well written form letter but other the PPHM recipient; who at the SEC & Nasdaq gets this letter? If it's not to the correct recipient it will end up in the circular file...!!!
Regards
golfho
I grieve with thee…
The world has lost a beautiful soul…
golfho
In response to your statement below: