Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[golfho]

Just some ruminations…

All of the following was written in the evening after a spectacular dinner and copious quantity of fine wine…

Well…What about the Reverse Split…

We’ve spent over a year with a SP under $1.00 and had two 180 day extensions…

The company stated that it was not in the best interest of the shareholders to initiate a RS and that they would appeal for an additional extension. We will hear about NASDAQ’s decision between now and 7-2-17 at the latest.

What is the company’s plan…???

1 - Expand AVID with the goal of achieving overall profitability by mid-2018. To that end they are expanding the Myford facility with two 2000L bioreactors. Per recent AVID PR the reactors are installed already. What’s needed is the completion of the supporting infrastructure and then a series of tests for certification from the FDA and the customer. NOTE: This facility has already gone through a rigorous certification process…Once that was achieved any further re-certification will be less arduous. Through the fabulous DD of several members of this board we can reasonably deduce that this expansion was to address a serious customer need for increased production. You know who… This is clearly not a case of “Build it an they will come” It is most likely a case of… We have an agreement that “If you build and get certified we will provide a minimum contract amount and if for any reason we decide to back out there will be forfeitures of deposits.

2 – The obsession of some shareholders with the ATM… I think that selling shares at the current price is very painful. But what are the alternative…??? They needed to expand the production capacity of AVID quickly. What were the alternatives…??? Do nothing…??? Or sell shares to expand AVID…??? That to me was what happened after the end of 3rd quarter and the March report during the CC where a significant number of shares were sold after the end of the last quarter. I predict a significant increase in capital expenses related to the construction of…”AVID II on Steroids”
Off Topic Aside: I take personal pride in copyrighting The Big Enchilada © and now… AVID II on Steroids © as the assumed AVID III space is now re-purposed.

3 – Exosome technology and the POC. I don’t recall where I read it but a while back I remember someone posting a second university that was investigating the use of PPHM’s Exosome assay for another cancer type. That implied to me that PPHM is looking to have independent verification from several un-affiliated peers to confirm the POC…Adding value to the technology.

4 – Bavituximab…Steve made a strategic decision years ago that implied that he was so confident in the ultimate success of the PS platform and having limited resources that he embarked on a strategy of validation through peers. These IST’s drove everyone crazy…They took forever to complete. In my View…Cynical as I am, I assumed that there was a risk that everyone that tested Bavituximab was also looking to find a way around the patent. At the end of the day we are where we are and that is that there is a very significant amount of validation from a wide field of renowned leaders that it is near impossible to deny the technology.


OK the wine is wearing off…Gotta Go…

Regards
golfho