the chart you posted is from nov 23rd...at that point the trin was suggesting the market was overbought and due for a correction, which it got in dec. The trin is not currently in a similar situation.

As far as it being the most overbought in 5 years, the previous low of the 21ema in this period was in mid 03, and the spx rallied another ~15% the next 4 months.

rcp it's a daytraders world out here, and that's not what I'm into...I can't call the day to day moves worth s@#t. I'd much rather try to identify significant bottoms and tops and ride the IT trends in between. No one wants to talk fundamentals anymore, or take a long term view of the markets and why they should rise significantly from here. To most people the fundamentals are last weeks jobs report and not much more...everything's backward looking. Not many folks want to look out 1-3 years and see why the markets could and should be much higher.

I've refined my WAG for this year to 3060 on the comp around mid july...but I still think we're much higher than that in 08 and 09...how much higher I'd say depends on the low we get this fall.

In the short term (next few weeks) I'd think we get near 2360-2410 and then possibly get some violent swings...then I think it's decision time as to whether we're going to get the huge run in 06...IMO we need to break that 2400 area and go nuts by about mid feb for 3000+ to work out for this year. I won't become bearish if we don't get it this summer, it would just be delayed until 07 IMO.

Good trading to you too.

Poker you were calling the dec highs a "top"...if the market then dropped from there and has now turned and gone higher, what would you call the point at which it changed direction and turned back up? Would the word bottom come to mind? You said "Bottoms are usually found at the end of a downtrend"...and you told everyone in dec to draw a line connecting the highs and tell you what the trend is...and you told everyone it was clearly a downtrend...so if we've now broken that downtrend by going to higher highs, by your definition, we found a bottom on jan 3rd.

You're right, when looking at a 3 year chart the jan low won't look like a huge bottom like the april or oct lows, but what point are you trying to make to rcp by arguing over whether the recent low should be called a bottom or not? Almost everyone here is a daytrader, and everything to them is viewed in the short term, so this would certainly look like a bottom to them. Bottom line is rcp has been right on since oct...and he said buy the dip into the jan 3rd low, so who cares what anyone wants to call jan 3rd now.

delete

fletch this one won't stop either...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NWRE,uu[r,a]wacanyay[d20000103,20060103][p][vc60]<i[J....

edit: dgin blasted back up again too...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=dgin,uu[e,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b50!c50!f][vc60][iub14!l...

OT well I see that after you read this post of mine from days ago where I said I thought we could pause around 2202, you now post the same thing on aj's board...top early this week huh...unbelievable.

You've got the guru thing wrong justa, a wannabe guru is someone who posts several times a day some kind of market forecast, and changes it over and over until he gets it right...then tells everyone that he nailed it...like you. How someone not posting targets in public is wanting to be a guru I really don't understand, but I think you're just trying to get away from all the questions people have sent your way this weekend.

Who da man justa? <g> oct 28th the top is in and we're headed down, nov 2nd you still have sell signals going off, on nov 4th your plan is coming together even though we've exploded since your drop calls, and nov 10th you're the man...wow <g>.

Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote msg# 64229
Date:11/10/2005 2:03:00 PM
Post #of 64625

Ndx bizarro buy in full bloom! Who da' man....lol. Does NDX 1630ish become support? Let's see if they can make it stick today. But, come on, Dell down and Csco down 3% plus and the Ndx is screaming. Impressive.

Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote msg# 63771
Date:11/4/2005 10:57:28 AM
Post #of 64625

Market: I love it when a plan comes together. Gap fill completing as predicted. Buy the dip. lol.



Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote msg# 63424
Date:11/2/2005 4:14:09 PM
Post #of 64625

On the close daily sells on the Naz and Rut. Limited upside ST on SPX but no sell quite yet. No sell on Ndx but one should use Naz as proxy for Ndx as it is carrying baggage.

Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: chainik who wrote msg# 63061
Date:10/28/2005 3:56:41 PM
Post #of 64625

C: I mentioned a few days ago that this period was a time of seasonal strength and to the rally is no surprise to me. It was this period potential that caused me to put off a better bottom from this timeframe out into the future before the rally even happened.

Note what has happened though. Spx and Dow have party fever while the Ndx and the Naz are being left behind this round by virtue of the Sox for one. In my mind, trend change on the Ndx from up to down is intact and like I said this morning ....they can dress this pig up anyway they want for the next few days (in light of the seasonally strong period) but the trend on the Ndx and Naz has changed from up to down and the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough. If this is correct, I don't expect the Spx and Dow will run away to the upside. Moreover, my weekly buys never lined up for these averages and I think they will eventually.





Before you decide to keep this going, just remember that you're the one posting these things publicly and telling everyone how you're nailing it, and I'm the one who realizes the day to day calls are at best 50%, and chooses to post privately about primarily longterm stuff. You've just really gotta get a grip on all that "who da man" and "bingo" stuff, you're really not right that often.

OT obviously everyone blows calls, but I've only seen one poster who responds after his blown calls with "who da man" or "bingo".

Ok, topic is over with...from the number of people who've pm'd me this weekend and responded publicly to justa over time about this same thing, it's obvious there are more than a few people who see it the same way.

well freep, I guess it's just in some of our nature to be bothered when some of these guys constantly tell everyone how great their calls are, and never acknowledge the fact that they blow about 50%. The same way it's in their nature to want to be recognized solely for their correct calls...just personality traits I guess.

justa was trying to avoid a tough question IMO, not trying to make wahz happy. My post was long, but it wasn't personal, I have no issue with justa as a person...I asked a couple questions and referenced some posts that I felt made a very clear point, that there are obviously many blown calls too, but those never get referenced in the "who da man" posts. Maybe I'm just looking to learn something and would like a better explanation of the "system" <g>.

As far as wasting bandwidth and time, well I could say the same thing about many posts on ihub including all the "who da man" posts, but I won't because really there's plenty of bandwidth here and people can post whatever they wish, and it's my time I'm wasting when I post, and justa's spending his own time when he posts. As ridiculous as some of the posts that I've read over time have been on ihub, I've never walked away saying "man that was a waste of a minute."

I thought it was funny just now that justa was saying this to lg...

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8481953

he's talking about how lg spends his "valuable life moments" and whatever...this coming from someone who spends so many of his own "valuable life moments" asking people "who da man" on the internet <g>. Look we all waste time here for whatever reason, and yeah we could just ignore every other person we come across, but then what fun would that be <g>.

This was a great quote freep, so true...

"Having been a longtime denizen of the net and these boards, I can say with certainty that it's impossible to save others from following someone they dub a guru. Those who follow blindly will follow blindly regardless of how many warnings they get from us well meaning posters."

Ok, time to go watch some football. Take it easy Mr Freep.

so how about this question then, what exactly does your daily sell mean? On nov 2nd you had a daily sell signal on the comp, it actually went off a few more times in the following days as well...but you can see from the comp chart below it just kept going up. And then you had a "bizarro buy" on nov 9th, a week after your daily sells, so you said we could keep going up...but that was after you had posted daily sells and the comp had gone up another 40 points. And on the ndx on oct 28th you said quote "trend change on the Ndx from up to down is intact and like I said this morning ....they can dress this pig up anyway they want for the next few days (in light of the seasonally strong period) but the trend on the Ndx and Naz has changed from up to down and the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough." Oct 28th was the low that led to this rally we've had since as you can see in the ndx chart below. It just seems like if you post a daily sell signal and the market drops you nailed it, and if instead it rises that turns into a buy, and again you nailed it. Why is it that after you say what I quoted above and the market goes into major rally mode, you don't come out and post something like...

On Oct 28th I said "the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough."

No Bingo, didn't nail it.


But yet you always do find a way to say that you nailed it, or "bingo", or "who da man" one way or another. I've seen dozens of posts of yours that say bingo or something to that affect, but never once seen one that said man I was wrong about that. I think LG's is a valid question for all of you guys that like to make the daily calls on the markets...it seems to most of us that don't bother with the day to day stuff that at best it's 50%, but for some reason all the daytraders want that pat on the back no matter what it takes to get it...so in many cases that's turned into people having so many open scenarios at once, that no matter what happens they always have the outcome covered and love to tell everyone how well they're calling the markets. The posts of yours I've pasted here are a perfect example, you were obviously bearish or saying sell when really it was a time to buy, but I'll bet you can point out posts of yours within a few days of those that said you had buys. So pretty much if the market had dropped like you originally thought, you'd have had it nailed, but then because you're posting buys just days after, you have that nailed too if we continue to rise. LG has a perfectly legitimate question about why you only reference the correct calls in your future posts and say that you nailed the call, whereas you never reference an incorrect call and say you blew that one. You don't have to be defensive about it and think it'll become a problem on the board, you could just answer the question honestly in a single post...it could be because you only want people to see the portion of the calls you got right, or it could be you think there's no point in referencing the incorrect calls because of the simple fact they were wrong and they're no longer valid, or it could be something else...but there is a reason. Maybe if you just stopped all the "who da man" and "bingo" stuff and just posted your day to day take like the rest of them it would come across a little better...that's the only reason your posts stand out...every time I read a "bingo" I think wait a minute, wasn't he saying the exact opposite just days ago, and sure enough I look back and there it is, just like the past couple weeks.


Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote msg# 63424
Date:11/2/2005 4:14:09 PM
Post #of 64524

On the close daily sells on the Naz and Rut. Limited upside ST on SPX but no sell quite yet. No sell on Ndx but one should use Naz as proxy for Ndx as it is carrying baggage.


Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: chainik who wrote msg# 63061
Date:10/28/2005 3:56:41 PM
Post #of 64524

C: I mentioned a few days ago that this period was a time of seasonal strength and to the rally is no surprise to me. It was this period potential that caused me to put off a better bottom from this timeframe out into the future before the rally even happened.

Note what has happened though. Spx and Dow have party fever while the Ndx and the Naz are being left behind this round by virtue of the Sox for one. In my mind, trend change on the Ndx from up to down is intact and like I said this morning ....they can dress this pig up anyway they want for the next few days (in light of the seasonally strong period) but the trend on the Ndx and Naz has changed from up to down and the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough. If this is correct, I don't expect the Spx and Dow will run away to the upside. Moreover, my weekly buys never lined up for these averages and I think they will eventually.

mvp, I guess the question is why would I want to spend the time to create a "public, verifiable record"...I'm not looking for "kudos" as you put it, as Pokersam and many others here obviously are. I rarely post in public anymore as I said, I choose to share my stuff with a couple people on ihub through pm who I consider to be very good at this. I don't really get the conversation you and Steve had after this, talking about how an offer to post in public usually shuts people up...no, I don't know how to make it more clear I have no desire to post publicly since I really don't have a single thing to gain from it...I wouldn't want to give away my work, and I don't get a thing out of these public posts, other than to use them as contrarian indicators 95% of the time.

Here's a pm of mine from a few days ago...I've Xed out what I don't want to share...first part happened as of today. Once we're at 3200+ on the comp in mid 06, we can look back on these and talk about them then.

Sent By: mjk Date: 11/8/2005 11:19:21 PM

well after a little review, I'd really like to see a little more up here to just over 2200. I mean we could drop just a bit more first, but I mean up to ~2202 before the drop to the XXX XXX.

So up to 2202, drop to XXXX, then explode to XXXX-XXXX.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8378204

I don't have an ego as large as yours, otherwise I'd be the idiot with the cocky bullshit attitude posting targets and trying to gain a following. In over 3 years on ihub, I've got barely 1000 posts. In 2.5 months, you've got 646.

If you want to get into a pissing contest with me, let's go...it's obvious to me from your time here on ihub you're absolutely clueless, leading your sheep right to the slaughter.

I'll stick with my longterm forecast, and you keep telling everyone to load up on puts right at the lows, it's been working out great for you so far.

there've been many times I've wondered if posters like PS are actually taking the opposite side of what they're recommending. You know it has to happen, there are just too many easily influenced people out here for it not to. I have to admit I thought several times the past couple months that he was just a smart guy trying to get a bunch of people to lean the wrong way...judging from the number of people defending him after he came across so incredibly cocky, it's obvious he's got some leader type quality people will do anything to support...he's like the David Karesh of the CS group <g>.

I'm an IT to LT investor, never play month to month puts/calls and don't daytrade...and would never recommend short term options to anyone. My stance for the last few years has been we're in a longer term cycle here that'll take us to 3200-3500 on the comp by mid to late 06. I had 2800-3000 by late 05 to jan 06 and all we've done is delayed the takeoff due to the slow pace of the fed...so where I had a first half 05 correction and second half explosion, we've gone sideways with a slight upbias since april due to IMO the fed. That's changing right now. I also stopped posting in public for the most part months ago, but here are some clippings from a few recent pm's...and one public from mid 04. Obviously you can tell around the oct low I was not looking at puts.

Sent By: mjk Date: 10/10/2005 9:00:43 PM

I've said this more than a few times but we have a lot of built up energy here, much like mar 03 after the two 02 lows and the mar retest. We could explode to 3000 in several months and it would not surprise me at all. Everyone's looking down now and dumb money shorts are insanely high, the fuel is all there.

Obviously the fed plays a big part in this, but they are going to stop, period...two maybe 3 more hikes at most, and we need to explode before that. Once they stop we'll go parabolic for months to finish the move off.

Sent By: mjk Date: 10/13/2005 10:34:36 AM

this is interesting to me, the low now at 2029, not that we can't even go a bit lower, but if this turns out to the be launch point of the next leg of the bull....

Sent By: mjk Date: 10/10/2005 9:09:12 PM

I don't know where the fuck this upper line is now, but we're going to hit it a few times in the next 10 months on the way to a mid 06 peak...


Posted by: mjk
In reply to: ajtj99 who wrote msg# 27047
Date:6/8/2004 9:09:52 AM
Post #of 43404

That's not outrageous at all. Though I think that 2800-3000 comes later in '05. And we may spend another couple months down here messing with this 1900-2000 area...perhaps all the way through summer. Speaking of patterns, you're exactly right, we're following something that's happened many times in the past (starting from '02), pres election and all...and it's not uncommon to go nowhere all the way through summer, which would mean almost a year of consolidation, then launch in the fall and after a short correction early in '05, have a huge rest of '05. Good suggestion not to short, the risk/reward is not there at these levels. Why not buy and hold for a year, we could have near 1000 points up coming.

sorry but I could pull up about 50 posts of his that said buy puts and hold on no matter what, "we're going down hard the next two months."

The one I posted was a day from the low...just because you were smart enough to trade in and out doesn't mean some other poor soul was. He had also said he put everything short "mostly in puts" leading into sept op ex and then rolled them out to oct two days before sept expiration since they didn't pan out either. I don't know how someone can continue to put everything into short term puts over and over and survive...and telling others to do that "or it'll cost them money" is about the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

I'm glad there are several of you that think everything is cool since he's now changed his stance, but there are several people who also think his cockiness came across pretty badly.

yeah but you have to admit, this is one of the best posts ever...had anyone followed this advice of loading up on puts, they'd be done now, broke. It'll be interesting to see next time he's this sure of something, if he says it in such an arrogant manner. One day from the low...

Posted by: POKERSAM
In reply to: FreeMarkets who wrote msg# 7578
Date:10/11/2005 10:26:54 PM
Post #of 10479

Bear Den - I would short the Q's., SMH, SPY. MRVL, KLAC. Go to a pattern scan sight and short all rising wedges. It doesn't matter what it is. Don't even look to see what they do. The only thing that matters is that it is in a bearish pattern. If it is it will collapse.

We are going down so fast over the next two months that it will not matter. Forget trying to play any bounce. It will not be worth it and will probably hand you your head. This is no joke. I have never been more sure of anything.

This is a huge opportunity to make a LOT of money. Opportunities like this only come along once in a great while. If it was me I would load up on all of the puts I could get my hands on without running the price up. Small blocks. The leverage is awesome.

The people on this sight who are playing around with going long and looking for a reversal etc. are stone cold wrong. They will be buried. Look back over the last couple of day,s posts at those who went long and at what price. Look at how those trades are working out. Pitiful.

This is not a drill. This is not a game. This is the real deal. You better believe I am right about this or it is going to cost you a lot of money. Period.

POKERSAM

the majority of posters on this board gave the bull case no respect...these posts within days of the low. You said NM is intolerant of opposing viewpoints, read these and tell me how they sound.

Posted by: sandman_co
In reply to: Burk who wrote msg# 8276
Date:10/16/2005 7:34:45 PM
Post #of 10680

Burk

With all due respect, refer to swenlin's chart update. We have had a very long-term bullish divergence followed by a big, ugly uptrend break. The bull market is overextended timewise, looking at history. What do you need, a dead bull falling on your dining room table?

Yes, we have had a bearish extreme. But you simply cannot compare a bearish sentiment extreme in an ongoing bull market (the situation in April) with a bearish sentiment extreme in a new bear market (the situation now). These are two very different beasts. You are going to see more nazis marching, more rioting in the streets, and the popular culture reaching new levels of depravity (think "Exorcist" but more so). You'll be seeing illness on a global scale (yes, pandemic). That's one way of knowing where you are in the vox populi. And it's really just beginning. Another is Swenlin's chart spotlight. What you'll see next we've seen on this board already, that is confused bulls looking to recapture the bullish feeling of a new high. There is about as much chance of that as a balanced federal budget. I cannot deny the possibility, but first we would have to recapture the violated trendline which happens to coincide with poker's target for the advance (1200 SPX). That ain't likely.


In a bull market, surprise technical resolutions tend to be bullish. In a bear market the reverse. Thus, it's more likely we don't even make it back to 1200 SPX and head down again, than the probability we'll break 1200 decisively. I'd say about an order of magnitude difference in probability.

JMHO,

SM.

Posted by: POKERSAM
In reply to: FreeMarkets who wrote msg# 7578
Date:10/11/2005 10:26:54 PM
Post #of 10479

Bear Den - I would short the Q's., SMH, SPY. MRVL, KLAC. Go to a pattern scan sight and short all rising wedges. It doesn't matter what it is. Don't even look to see what they do. The only thing that matters is that it is in a bearish pattern. If it is it will collapse.

We are going down so fast over the next two months that it will not matter. Forget trying to play any bounce. It will not be worth it and will probably hand you your head. This is no joke. I have never been more sure of anything.

This is a huge opportunity to make a LOT of money. Opportunities like this only come along once in a great while. If it was me I would load up on all of the puts I could get my hands on without running the price up. Small blocks. The leverage is awesome.

The people on this sight who are playing around with going long and looking for a reversal etc. are stone cold wrong. They will be buried. Look back over the last couple of day,s posts at those who went long and at what price. Look at how those trades are working out. Pitiful.

This is not a drill. This is not a game. This is the real deal. You better believe I am right about this or it is going to cost you a lot of money. Period.

POKERSAM

Posted by: husk
In reply to: POKERSAM who wrote msg# 7582
Date:10/12/2005 12:11:38 AM
Post #of 10681

Sam..you have patiently been trying to help those of this board for months..and you are to be commended. I understand your frustration when the train is coming down the track and deaf children are playing there...I have had to emotionally detach...

Almost all of these people who post here are good people, trying to figure the market out...there are a few from another IHub board who are trouble, and ziggy with his proprietary nonsense that tells him this is the time to be long....the market will clean his clock..and in his case I'm not sorry.

I am going to have to change my posting....letting the ones who want to go long now, just go without comment..or give them an "attaboy..you show them" type of sendoff.

It simply does not do any good to speak to those who will not hear.....on the other hand, there are a few more who now see the writing on the wall, and we can still continue to have civil discussions.

Finally...I will post the thoughts of David New...cogent stuff again, as it was yesterday.

"10/11 Closing Update....The semiconductor stocks which broke down yesterday ushered in a significant 200 SMA breakdown in the Nasdaq today. Our next key support is 2050 which is a potential bounce point then followed by 2000. One by one most indices are now below their key 200 SMA's and after the bell AAPL reported results that came in well below most expectations sending the futures and many stocks lower. AAPL itself was down in excess of 5 points after the bell. The brokers today also broke through a key long term uptrendline sending that sector down significantly. The banks are threatening to make a major breakdown out of a bearish head/shoulders topping pattern. Other than selected transports and the gold/silver sectors most groups continue to breakdown out of topping patterns some with significant downside projections. Volume as anticipated picked back up to the downside accompanied with very poor breadth trends. Our expectation is for a continued move lower in time with some expected earnings related volatility resulting in reflex bounces along the way."

namo was nearly -16 yesterday, I have it about +1.6 today...so nearly the swing you're talking about.

I don't think I made a mistake but we'll see...haven't used my calc in a while.

I have it up by a point+

yeah that was a nice close, and the nasi should turn up by a hair...let's see if we get follow through tomorrow.

I'll still feel better once the nasi is turned up, it still won't get there today but getting close, looks like down about 3 right here at 2138 on the comp.

The taking of monday's high may mean something though, we'll see in the next few days. A dow close back above its 50 day would be nice too.

if the nasi turns back up in the process, then I'd agree with that...we'd need slightly better than a 2/1 adv/dec day for that to happen today

QUALCOMM Increases Financial Guidance for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ending September 25, 2005

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050921/law044.html?.v=29

how about just an inv h&s with a perfect backtest of the neckline back in april...just happens to measure to the 2000 high.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7719708

National Semiconductor Reports 5.7% Sequential Revenue Increase, Record 56.2% Gross Margin for First Quarter FY06
Thursday September 8, 12:16 pm ET
- Q1 revenues are $493.8 million, up from $467 million in Q4 of Fiscal 2005
- Q1 GAAP net profit is $85.6 million and earnings are 24 cents per share
- Analog focus drives 1.5 percentage-point gain in gross margin for Q1
- Bookings increased 18 percent sequentially and exceeded billings in Q1
- Revenue outlook for Q2 of Fiscal 2006 is approximately 5 percent growth from Q1

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050908/sfth134.html?.v=2

JDS Uniphase to Acquire Agility Communications, Inc.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050908/sfth024.html?.v=26

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/semis/10241474.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

hey LG, I wonder if welles thinks it's ok that the looters are now shooting at national guardsmen and police...yep, I'm sitting on my soft couch and thinking they're absolutely pathetic human beings.

You see what happens, you give them a little and let them loot, and then they decide to take it even further with violence against aid workers, and setting fires etc...but hey, these are desperate times, I guess shooting at the people trying to help is perfectly normal. Absolutely disgusting.

Market Pulse: Ciena narrows Q3 loss as revenue rises 46.2%
Thursday September 1, 7:15 am ET
By Michael Baron

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ciena Corp. Thursday reported a third-quarter loss of $51 million, or 9 cents a share, narrower than a year-ago loss of $141.5 million, or 25 cents a shaer. Revenue reached $110.5 million in the three-month period ended July 31, up 46.2% from a year-ago total of $75.6 million. Excluding items, the Linthicum, Md., maker of networking equipment lost $41.9 million, or 7 cents a share, in the period. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a loss of 4 cents a share in the quarter on revenue of $109.9 million. Looking ahead, Ciena said its visibility for the fourth quarter remains strong and it expects sequential revenue growth of about 5% for the period. "On an as-adjusted basis, we expect our fourth quarter results will demonstrate continued progress toward profitability and positive cash flow," said Gary Smith, the company's president and CEO. The stock closed Wednesday at $2.25, up 5 cents.

Katrina seen hitting corporate profits

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050831/bs_nm/economy_earnings_dc

hey fletch, what about dgin, gnss, and jcom...let these run or time to trade for some cheaper stuff? TIA

dgin continues to move higher as well...attempting to break out of this recent consolidation...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=DGIN,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pc200!c50!d20,2!b200!b50!c20!c1....

can't argue with that...I can't believe some of the stuff I read around Ihub, now a 2% decline on the spx and apparently we're crashing <g>.

Where's syl to tell everyone how the bulls are getting slaughtered <g>.

it's about time for one of those string of up days...I'll call this one, 10 of 12 to a new high on the comp

2400 in oct still on track, this was just enough to get the bears confident, and even some bulls changing their minds

you might also notice csco had an almost identical gap down in aug 03 after earnings, and did ok after about a week of bottoming.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=CSCO,uu[e,a]daclyyay[d20030712,20040131][pd20,2!f][vc60]...

"BTW, I wonder why none of the clowns mentions the freaking Fed Model anymore? Here is my guess: because based on this "model" stocks are overvalued :)"

You might want to go through the numbers on your fed model...stocks are well undervalued actually. spx estimates for the coming year are now over 75 bucks, the 10 year is at 4.33%...based on trailing or future 12 month spx earnings, the spx is more than 20% undervalued.

edit: with an spx earnings yield of roughly 6%, and the 10 year sitting down here at 4.33%, it would seem to explain why stocks can rally significantly from here even while the fed tightens...but that's JMHO.

well ok I meant nutcase in a nice way <g>

you can't reason with a nutcase

I agree with wahz, we should be putting in a very significant low right here, with the start up coming within days. I think all the indices accelerate big time from sept to nov, and ultimately into feb, and they're all much higher. As for the rest of sept, I'd expect the bias to generally be up after this week, with maybe one more drop coming later in the month, but not this low.