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Jinx.
OK, see Gym Gravity already posted a link here.
What about this: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore
According to the FT earlier this week, iron ore demand remains strong: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/684ab62a-c277-11e0-9ede-00144feabdc0.html
That said, if the sh*t truly hits the fan globally, Chinese iron ore demand could drop off.
The real estate in Indonesia is about 8x as large as the real estate in Australia, so if the mills are the same size, and they have two in Australia, presumably they could build 16 in Indo. Or maybe one big one, I don't know.
Good finds, but if I'm reading that right, PT Arcoplate Indonesia is distributing Arcoplate that's been manufactured in Australia. Really good news will be when they are selling Arcoplate that was manufactured in Indonesia. That will mean AYSI has finally resolved whatever issues are keeping it from expanding its capacity.
Seeking Alpha article on AYSI
SA posted my recap on AYSI (I've asked them to add an "s" to the word "pick" in the title, which they wrote): http://seekingalpha.com/article/275442-alloy-steel-international-a-pick-and-shovels-play-on-the-mining-industry
Good links, Swick.
I'm planning to write a follow up article on AYSI for Seeking Alpha tonight, and I'll bring this up.
Consider hedging the naz.
More details on that: http://seekingalpha.com/article/274732-hedging-the-20-most-active-nasdaq-names
Congrats on your imaginary sale over $3.
AYSI didn't break above $3 until February, 2010. And on January 23rd, 2010, you wrote:
AYSI's current price: $1.45
AYSI's price last time you posted about it here: $1.08
AYSI's price the previous time you posted about it $0.46.
$0.46 < $1.08 < $1.45
If I didn't own any AYSI, I'd definitely open a position here (if I didn't buy at ~$1.20 first). But it's already my largest stock holding, and I decided after last summer not to buy it for over a buck a share again, so no.
Holding here.
Maybe the problem was splitting the chairman/CEO roles...
...but the current chairman isn't willing to take on the CEO role?
My SA article on buying puts on JOE after getting stopped out of my short earlier this year: http://seekingalpha.com/a/5thr
This remains my largest long position, though I'm holding about 50% cash, plus shorts & hedges.
AYSI's potential remains huge; the company wouldn't have bought the Indonesian site if it didn't think that was the case. Remember that in addition to wear plates, the Arcoplate process has applications in chutes, pipes, etc. It may take a while for the company to realize its potential though.
Step one seems to be to perfect the manufacturing process used in the second mill. Maybe Dr. Mofflin, the engineering Ph.D., and new addition to the board, can help with that.
As the company noted last summer, they're wary of expanding capacity until they can be confident in producing quality products consistently at higher volumes. There's a saying in business, "I'd rather turn you down than let you down", and that seems to be AYSI's approach.
As I mentioned before, I wouldn't expect a strong Q2 based on this commentary. Maybe we'll get lucky and see a strong quarter or two in the second half of this fiscal year.
The good news in the interim is that the company remains profitable and its balance sheet has continued to strengthen. And its got a strong leadership team now instead of being a one- or two-man show.
Guessing Q2 wasn't great either, since the new CEO added that reminder about the December and March quarters.
Also, this part,
I don't know.
They never updated their initial claim that they were planning to build additional mills in WA, but if I had to guess:
1) They put any expansion on hold early last year when production problems with the second mill arose.
2) Judging by the Q4 numbers, those production problems have been resolved.
3) Given that they've completed payments on their Indonesian manufacturing site, which is several times larger than their WA facilities, I would expect any further expansion of manufacturing capacity to happen there. When that happens might depend on whether they decide to build one big mill there, or expand in modular fashion, with several smaller mills, built one at a time.
Thanks for that cogent analysis, Brig.
That's true, he did post warnings when the stock was below $1 as well.
OK, I'm off. Enjoy the weekend.
Just sharing the info, in the event someone is interested in reading it. If someone had a detailed, negative comment about a company I owned, I'd want to read it. But I don't have a dog in this one way or the other.
Signing off of iHub for the weekend. Have a good one.
I'm not knowledgeable about either co.
But I do remember he raised warnings about JBII when it was trading at over $5. And he posted about another stock last week that has since had its trading halted.
Until they post news or earnings, nothing.
Yeah, saw that yesterday.
Definitely continuing macro tailwinds for AYSI. Now it's a matter of them executing (and letting us know how they're doing).
I wouldn't read too much into it.
Take a look back at the price action before the last earnings release: the stock dropped from 80 cents to 64 cents before the 2010 earnings were released.
In the meantime, you should enter this contest to win an iPad: http://steamcatapult.com/2011/03/21/short-screen-posting-contest-update/
Yes, when they announced their de-listing: http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1127454/000114036110038626/ex99_1.htm
For those who might have missed it, Avoidthegarbage's latest post on JBII: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/280-jbii-pk-if-only-it-could-be-meaningfully-shorted--jbi-inc--jbii-pk
And for those who don't remember, recall that Avoidthegarbage made his first bearish call on JBII last year when it was trading at over $5 per share.
My post on why I opened a position in this: http://steamcatapult.com/2011/03/10/new-long-position-wireless-xcessories-group-inc/
Do you anticipate winning an iPad?
If so, you should enter this contest: http://steamcatapult.com/2011/02/25/short-screen-posting-contest-update/
What does that mean?
In this at average cost of 94 cents.
Agreed.
Remember seasonality: AYSI's fiscal Q1 is typically weaker,
because pretty much no business gets done the last two weeks of the calendar year.
Delay due to bring on a new CEO?
That would be my guess. Given the delay with the fiscal 2010 Q4/annual numbers, I'm not surprised we haven't seen Q1 numbers yet. Would be nice to see them within the next couple of weeks though (i.e., within a month and a half of the Q4 numbers).
Apples and oranges.
Your links are to investor presentations. The AYSI link was to a product brochure.
Agreed.
Another thing I'd like to see is the company get back on the "Current Information" tier of the Pink Sheets.
It's decent writing as far as business goes.
I've seen a lot worse, that's for sure.
I'm not too worried about that.
The biggest risk with executive comp is an agency conflict, when execs reward themselves with high salaries at the shareholders' expense, and pay themselves lavishly regardless of how the company performs. I doubt that Gene, as the majority owner of the company, is going to let that happen.
AYSI earned $4.9 million last year. Maybe they'll spend 10%-12% of that amount on base executive/board comp next year?
Also, bear in mind that the reason Gene (or anyone) would hire someone for $X is because he thinks that employee will add >$X value to the organization. The new CEO and board members should be able to tap into their networks to open doors to new clients for AYSI's salesmen.
We'll see though.
More new content on AYSI's website.
I like this Arcoplate brochure: http://www.alloysteel.net/media/pdf/mobile-plant-applications-brochure.pdf
Agreed. Just mentioning it so no one acts surprised later. Still bullish on AYSI's prospects.