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Re: LD-AIM spreadsheet
No problem Pedro.
Let me know if any questions.
Hi Pedro
RE: LD-AIM Spreadsheet
I've sent it along and other than a few wording changes, the mechanics are the same as back then.
The workbook or cells are not protected, so please be mindful that you enter only in the spaces provided.
Let me know if you have any questions.
RE: I tried ChatGPT...“How does Automatic Investment Manager by Robert Lichello work?
Holy AIM-Brain Batman!!!
Perfect Description and Disclaimer!
And it only took 3 seconds?
We've been discussing it over the last 25 years plus!
A little scary though.
Interestingly, the last few pages of the TA A-Z doc cover both Williams %R and ZIG-ZAG...
A few Excerpts:
WILLIAM'S % R
Overview
Williams %R (pronounced "percent R") is a momentum indicator that measures
overbought/oversold levels. Williams %R was developed by Larry Williams....
...An interesting phenomena of the %R indicator is its uncanny ability to anticipate a
reversal in the underlying security's price. The indicator almost always forms a peak and
turns down a few days before the security's price peaks and turns down. Likewise, %R
usually creates a trough and turns up a few days before the security's price turns up.
ZIG ZAG
Overview
The Zig Zag indicator filters out changes in an underlying plot (e.g., a security's price or
another indicator) that are less than a specified amount. The Zig Zag indicator only shows
significant changes....
...The Zig Zag indicator is used primarily to help you see changes by punctuating the most
significant reversals.
It is very important to understand that the last "leg" displayed in a Zig Zag chart can
change based on changes in the underlying plot (e.g., prices). This is the only indicator in
this book where a change in the security's price can change a previous value of the
indicator. Since the Zig Zag indicator can adjust its values based on subsequent changes
in the underlying plot, it has perfect hindsight into what prices have done. Please don't try
to create a trading system based on the Zig Zag indicator--its hindsight is much better
than its foresight!
Be careful out there!
Done and Don Ken.
Let me know if any questions or comments.
RE: Volatility as selection criteria/trigger within AIM.
There have been many discussions here regarding Volatility and it's use within the AIM process.
One of them took place at our first gathering in 2000 when Mark Hing was discussing how his software (in development at the time) would 'optimize' AIM results which did take volatility into account, but I do not recall the specifics of that.
I also recall during that session that I proposed that we might be able to establish what I termed as 'An Efficient Volatility Index' that could possibly be used to that end.
Further, I believe Tom mentioned Zig-Zag Analysis during that session as well.
I mentioned that another one, William's %R, could also be valuable.
Zig-Zag, William's %R, along with many other measures is part of the Technical Analysis side of investment metrics.
Fundamental Analysis is the other side of that.
Many investors/traders use Fundamental Analysis to select the issues in which they intend to invest.
Then they use Technical Analysis to time their entry and/or exit points.
To that end, here's a little light reading to help us understand volatility (or to help us fall asleep).
It's only 231 pages!
http://freetradingdownloads.com/Technical%20Analysis%20from%20A%20to%20Z.pdf
Re: Sell on PLTR, Buy on SLV
Yesterday at the open, PLTR and SLV triggered my next Sell and Buy prices respectively.
My GTC Sell order on PLTR filled near the open @ $9.30 / Shr for a very nice 25% LIFO gain on shares purchased last September.
I do not use GTC orders on the Buy side and actually didn't see the SLV notification until last night.
So I took a look this morning and was able to to make my Buy for 11 cents less per Shr than my I would have with a standing Limit order.
Sometimes I get Lucky!
Hi Will.
Didn't realize you were across the pond.
It will be interesting to see how my settings work in practice.
8% Sell SAFE and 0%Buy SAFE for a very steady mutual fund.
Looks to me like you're intent on net accumulation. All well and good as far as that goes. But AIM by itself tends to accumulate even with balanced Safe settings. Especially with a 'Steady Eddie' mutual fund. So I would caution that you should expect relatively frequent Buys and could likely put your Cash Reserve at risk without some type of 'Pump the Brakes' methodology such as 30 days between sequential buys, or Tom's 'Halfway to the Wall' method of protecting Cash Reserve.
I wonder if there has been any software developed to optimise the settings based on a backtest?
Oh Yes!
Mark Hing out of Vancouver introduced us to Automatic Investor back in 2000 at our AIM gathering in Vegas. He quickly built an actual business with his suite of software!
He also has an active A.I.M. board out here.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Advanced-Automatic-Investor-1172
Also, 2 other fellows from back then (names escape me at the moment) from Fernandina Beach on Amelia Island, Florida developed a pretty big business with their version of AIM.
Both of the software packages had some types of optimization built in.
Has anyone suggested volatility as a filter to select stocks / funds?
Absolutely. Hard to find really high Vix in mutual funds or ETFs unless you use leveraged ones.
But that can be a double edge sword because there is always a reason that a stock or fund is relatively volatile. Sometimes OK, sometimes not.
Definition from Google: Volatility is how much and how quickly prices move over a given span of time. In the stock market, increased volatility is often a sign of fear and uncertainty.
Finally, if you want to study AIM in depth, start here:
http://web.archive.org/web/20120830055133id_/http://www.aim-users.com/index.html
The FAQS section is very informative,, and you may find most of your questions already covered.
Will:
Your 1st request actually did come into my primary folder.
But since you sent it at 3:56 AM, it was Waaaaay down the list.
I did send the Excel sheet just now, so let me know if you have any questions.
BTW:
It was fun for me to read through my approach and play with it again.
Took me back to 2003 when I spent many of a lunch hour with paper, pencil and calculator figuring out how to 'reverse engineer' Lichello's simple subtraction approach and still accommodate Safe, Min % and Min $ settings.
So thanks for asking your original question.
Hi again Will.
Would you like a copy of the Excel hold zone sheet I described?
If so, just send me an email.
Thanks, Steve
Hi Will
Re: Hold Zone Calcs
I took a page from my LD AIM Excel Sheet and made up a workbook with it which explain the various formulae in each cell which I 'reverse engineered' from standard Lichello calcs.
Basically a step by step calc as if you were doing it with a hand calculator; only it's done for you!
The Hold Zone is the next price and quantity to Sell or Buy based on your settings.
Current Price is not needed if you're predicting the next transaction on either side, which this simple sheet does.
If you want it, drop me an email to
biggrabbergrabber@gmail.com.
This is an older snap of it.
Good Morning Jon.
Regarding AGQ:
I didn't know that AGQ existed.
But now in looking at it briefly, I'm likely to stay away because it's leveraged.
Had a great runup post financial crisis, and held for a while, but note the 1:4 reverse split in 2014. Has been kind of steady to trending down, albeit volatile enough since then.
Probably a Contango issue like I had with VIXY that Toof pointed out to me a while back.
Thanks for the idea though!
Have a great day!
Hi Will.
Regarding using AIM with GOLD...
I've been AIM-ing SLV for almost 10 years.
Currently it is my largest holding.
Look at Post # 46288
Good luck and welcome to the crew!
Good Morning Crew!
Wanted to report that I was able to get my first Sell executed on AMZN.
AMZN is my newest LD-AIM program, started in September last year.
I had been anticipating their 20:1 split since it was announced early last year, and even though I didn't buy in until a few months later, I did get in at $120 which was lower than the close on the June 6th split date (albeit not as low as it fell a few months after the split and before I got in).
Since then, I had 3 consecutive Buys with my first Sell on 2/2.realizing an 18.7% LIFO gain.
And amazingly enough I got a Buy 5 days later, replacing those shares plus a few at a discount of 10.1%.
Currently, my Actual shares are worth 7% less than they cost, but the stock is down 17% from my initial position.
It's a great example of how quickly AIM reduces average cost.
Hi Tom!
Ahhh.....Your annual Figgie Pudding post. This one may be the prettiest so far. You must be watching HGTV.
I also noticed you posted it to LinkedIn this year.
So in honor of your long term commitment to this dish...
He posts it each year
Figgie Pudding Recipe
It looks really good!
You're Welcome John!
Our fried turkey was fabulous, as usual. '
My SLV program has been successful as you noted, but a lot of that is likely due to those covid related sales.
My thinking going in was that SLV would not be as volatile as most other holdings, but I felt I needed to have a 'Hedge Holding' vs my other programs. So it has at least provided that.
I should probably have set the min/max setting closer to accomodate for that, but the actual history of the program shows numerous same side sequential transactions, both Buy and Sell.
Looking at the dates of those transactions, some of that can be attributed to poor sequential timing discipline on my part (Sorry Tom)
So this conversation has me thinking through the "Efficient Volatility Index" concept I mentioned at the original AIM gathering in 2000. In essence it would add another transaction trigger using W%R's. 20 & 80 % exit crossover points.
It's a nice thought experiment too!
And BTW: W%R is a great way to trigger the initial Buy for a new program.
Have been spending most of the last few weeks on Christmas decorations outside, and now inside. We always do the inside immediately after Thanksgiving. Tree goes up today!
Have a great day!
Good Morning John.
I've AIMed SLV since 2013.
9% Sell Min, 11% Buy Min. 0 Safe.
This ETF generated 32 Buys and 25 Sells over the 9+ years (~6 trades/year).
And notably, 7 of the Sells were consecutive from March through August, 2020; depleting my actual shares by 47% (obviously pandemic related).
Those 7 Sells were followed by 6 Buys and 4 Sells -- Seq. B-S-B-S-B-S-S-B-B-B
It is currently my largest holding having added 4x to my initial Buy of actual shares.
Program to Date:
Buy prices ranged from 11.60-24.50 with a share weighted average of 18.46
Sell prices ranged from 14.90-27.42 with a share weighted average of 19.62
Realized Gain of 35.4% (LIFO)
Unrealized Loss of -8.5% (at current price of 19.81 vs 21.65 of cost remaining)
Have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Hi Tom.
I recently told this story, but in summary:
Early 80's I had just stuck my toe in the investment world via an investment club with some work associates. Left it after a year when we moved to Texas.
A few years later, I caught Lichello's infomercial, middle of the night, and was intrigued, but didn't want to invest the ~$300.
Not long after, Andy, my father in law visited us here in Texas from our hometown in Milwaukee and he asked me 'to find the fatal flaw in this AIM thing'.
He had spend the $300 and gave me photo copies of the entire program.
Never found the flaw.
I found Tom's original site and reached out to him. Andy and I subsequently visited with Tom in Port Washington and the rest is history. We go back home to the lake house every year and have visited with Tom a few times over the years. We also went to both AIM gatherings in Vegas.
Sadly, Andy passed away 6 years ago. But it was so nice to see Tom again at Andy's Memorial Service.
Hi Tom & Jon
I don't recall 'Husky' as a term used by Don, but you're probably correct as usual.
I do recall the 9.09/11.11 combination though. Have been using them for a very long time.
Getting old sucks.
Hi Jon.
Was that the 'Husky' Version?
??? Not sure what you mean so can't answer your question.
Hi Tom
0 Safe and Sell/Buy settings of 9.09 & 11.11
These are from Don Carlson's 'Magic Formula'!
I searched the board for the context of the conversation around these, but didn't find it. Maybe it was on the old board.
These 2 above effect a 10% Price Move either side.
Divide each by 2 for Split Safe/Minimum approaches.
I dug out my old spreadsheet for the actual formulas.
I think reciprocals are involved.
(The PM% defines Price Movement)
Buy Side
=(1/(1-PM%))-1
Sell Side
=1-(1/(1+PM%))
Hi gang.
GIEW had its first Sell Friday on the new LD-AIM program for DRLL.
Nice 10% gain on shares purchased exactly 1 month ago.
This program has 0 Safe and Sell/Buy settings of 9.09 & 11.11 respectively.
LOL!
This calls for a Haiku!
If shirt was off, would
you really look like Rambo?
Definitely NOT!
HI Tom.
It's nice to receive a raise once in a while.
It must be my good behavior!
Right! Take the credit when you can.
BTW:
I just executed my first AIM Trx on my new LD-AIM program with AMZN.
It was a Buy. Added 28% to my Actual shares, (11% to the Total w/ Virtual incl).
Got them at a 10% discount to my initial buy.
FYI. Just announced:
Amid record high inflation, Social Security beneficiaries will get an 8.7% increase to their benefits in 2023, the highest increase in 40 years.
Thanks Ken. It's good to be back.
I retired at age 56, congrats on your retirement! I'm 65 now
OOF!
At 56, I had just started my last gig (2007).
Was there for the next 11+ years.
Big commute. 33 miles each way.
Retired a few months before my 68th birthday.
71 now.
Hi Jon.
Did not attend the dinner, just the presentation
That explains it!
Of course now we need to ID that 4th person from the right, standing!
The dinner was great (albeit somewhat on the spendy side).
But what the hell. You only live once.
Thanks
Hey Old John
You are more than welcome!
Hi Jon.
I attended Steve. And it was informative, fun and some really interesting people.
Apologies Jon; my forgetful side must showing. Which person are you in the pic Tom posted last year?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=161002103
Post 44997
I am 69 so not a good choice.
But I would like there to be a meeting before we are all gone.
Well you're the Youngling so....
As for a gathering, the 2 we had in 2000 & 2001 were in Vegas because we gathered during the same days as The Money Show ran. So there were other sessions folks could also attend.
Our meet was at the hotel where many of us stayed, but did go most of the day.
It was also a great social gathering as was obvious in Tom's pic.
Hudson Valley sounds good, but we might consider somewhere more centrally located (Like Dallas!) .
Regardless, it could be a lot of fun, and it would be great to meet all y'all.
I think Tom and I are the only attendees still active in this specific group.
Hey Gang!
I'm officially all caught up!
Feels good.
Now I gotta go and help the missus do a little work in the gardens.
Hi Tom,
Who's going to take over when we Chairpeople retire?
Right!
We need a Succession Plan!
Hey Toof! What's your 2 cents?
Aim Gathering...
When we took a poll on where people wanted to have the meeting they chose Las Vegas!!!
2 Years in a row!
Hi old_john.
Re: Using GTC orders.
I have every one of my next Sells in as a GTC (plus extended hours when available), good for 4 or 5 months.
I rarely use GTC's on the Buy side.
But I set Alerts for for both prices and as soon as it gets there, I get a text.
If it's at my Buy price, I take a look and decide.
If I go for it, It might be a GTC at or a little lower if that seems to be the trend, or if it's 'waffeling' around my price, I'll execute as market. Typically not more than a few pennies difference.
Been doing this for years at TD-Ameritrade.
Works well for me.
Hi Tom.
OAG Tom
Chairman - OAGEW (Old AIM Guy Equity Warehouse)
How the hell do you even pronounce that?!
I liked 'VIEW' better.
Best Regards,
Steve (The Grabber)
Chairman - GIEW (Grabber's International Equity Warehouse).
Hi Tom.
This is from a post you made near the June bottom as all y'all were noting all the recents Buys.
I tried to listen to CNBC this AM for a while and have to say that I got nothing of value out of it.
Try Fox Business if it's available to you.
It is one of our channels we stream on Hulu Live. It is also available to listen to on Sirius/XM.
Maria Bartiromo at 5 AM and Stuart Varney at 8. Mon-Fri
Both CNBC alums if I'm not mistaken.
The rest of the lineup is also very good IMHO.
Also...
I returned from a 2592 mile tour of the deep South last Saturday.
You didn't happen to swing through the DFW area did you?
Yep, you did.
several people were suitably impressed, too!!!!
One can't argue with a good entrance!
And I didn't even mention your cape!
Hi Tom.
Trying to remember if you had the Wizard's Hat on during your intro...
AIM 2000 Meeting..........
May, 2000
Intro - Expectations and Reality
-You expected someone 6'5”, 210#; The reality is 5'8”,190#
-You expected someone with six-pack abs; The reality is more like a twelve-pack!
-You expected “Ask Jeeves”; The reality is “See if Tom knows.”
-You expected a SuperHero; The reality is you got a family man from Wisconsin.
-You expected James Bond; What you got was Austin Powers!
-This is much like the world of investing. Expectations and reality need to be understood together.
Is AIM a Successful Plan for Investing? YES!
Is Robert Lichello's Model based in reality? YES!
Are there other ways to be successful as investors? YES!
Is there a Safer, more Responsible way to be successful as an investor than AIM? NO!
Hi byculla.
I realize this is months ago, but...
Do you mean stop loss orders?
If so, then I can't help you.
But TD Ameritrade allows GTC Ext orders, Buy and Sell for almost any stock except OTC stocks, but they do allow GTC regular hours for it.