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I will do that (check otcmarkets.com). But I usually have a mix of OTC and NAS stocks to look at multiple times a day, and 7 times out of 10, the NAS will list AVXL and all my other OTC's. It is convenient. I can check insider traiding for all at once, institutional investment, pre-market or post-market quotes... etc.
Not surprised at all that the NAS does not list OTC's. Would not be super surprised if they did. But very surprised that they list them 70% of the time, not 0% or 100%. I am talking about the same OTC stocks being listed one day, then not listed the next, for months now, with no apparent pattern.
Anybody know why many OTC stocks show up intermittently when you input them into the stock list on the NASDAQ main site?
example
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/institutional-holdings
Today I could get no info on AVXL nor any of the other OTC stocks that I follow. It seems totally random as to when the NAS site will recognize them or not, but about 70% of the time it recognizes all of the OTC's that I follow, including AVXL.
On the other hand; Although the conference focus is on immunotherapy adjuncts, particularly chemotherapies, NW could be there as spoilers, with results indicating that they don't need no stinkin chemotherapies.
Or... Direct's secret sauce is certainly adjunct... but like blockade inhibitors, it is really more immunotherapy. A pure play, but perhaps viewable as added support to a primary immunotherapy, and thus sort of in line with the conference theme.
Or... there is a 4 day limit on witholding news that is relevant to share price, and this conference might just be the best available platform within those 4 days. Thus the presentations might not fit into the conference theme.
Note that there are all kinds of possible legitimate reasons to withold info that would otherwise have to be revealed in that 4 day limit. These shareholder lawsuites make no sense when they know full well the explanation will be provided soon. If the explanation is not good enough, then you spend the time and money to move forward with a lawsuite. But we have been here before, and there is always a reasonable explanation. The lawsuites are always frivolous. They certainly appear to be tactics to drive the stock price down.
However longs investigating such in the past have come back saying they believe the attorneys, that it is automatic to "launch" an action if there is a large SP drop and any possibility of impropriety.
I haven't been following closely, but the conference is focused on adjuncts with immunotherapy. LP has discussed using a blockade inhibitor along with Direct.
The PR says updates on trials, so I do think there will be info on both L and Direct. Hopefully L will be a positive clarification of what is going on... which could be huge positive, but I suppose not super likely.
For Direct, some kind of update on results seems due. Hopefully there is an update, the results are very good, and further, they now have a partner that is starting a new trial or new leg with a blockade inhibitor.
You don't know how many shares. Nobody knows. That is the point.
Reply Raja:
It's possible they think the full data set is their best option. But it's possible the full data set will be available in October (I think anyway).
But the conditions to PR such would be
1) Past the Fed Uncertainty. Anavex would want full, undivided attention.
2) Absolutely certain they have all their ducks in a row.
It might be right before the conference before they know if they have all the data, and properly scrutinized, and properly prepared for presentation.
Most things don't move as fast as expected. Maybe this will be the exception, but if not, seems December is fine too.
These pumpers scare me. They can't be working for Anavex, or an investor in Anavex, because they aren't very clever. I worry they are working for the shorts. Keeping the price up while the shorts fill up, in anticipation of everything going to hell after Thursday's Fed press conference.
So what if the world doesn't come to an end next Friday? They will have a series of bash PR's ready to try to hammer the stock price down long enough to escape intact.
I think the chances of big news do go way up after the fed issue settles.
No problem. It would have been nice.
The interview was "published" July 28, but Missling is clear that there are no results yet. So clearly, the recording was done prior to results; prior to July 22. I don't think it was a plot. Just worked out that way.
They don't state the day that it was recorded. I never like it when they fail to state the date. Often basher articles will have no stated author and no date. In this case it is not a basher article... but I still don't like it.
No. The data release Missling is referring to already happened on 7/22/2015. That video was published 7/28/15, but apparently recorded before 7/22/15.
You appear to be a professional pumper. I am long, but I don't appreciate your misleading input. You might fit in better on Yahoo.
TD Ameritrade. Seeing AVXL volume but no bid or ask. So I agree does not seem right. Possible something lined up and traded briefly... but seems unlikely.
Try IMUC. Things are kind of flat in general. Maybe there really are no bids or asks yet for AVXL or many other OTC stocks.
I know a buyout is not likely. Not enough data yet, and not Missling's stated plan, which is partnership(s). At this point, he would have to sell the company for $1B to $3B is my guess, and I agree he would not likely do that. Maybe $8B at this point, but not likely anyone would pay that without a little more data.
Missling did talk about aquisitions at least once, however. He spoke about other buyouts in the sector. But the purpose of that talk was probably just to scale the company value, ie, the proper valuation / sp. The market cap was so far off back then.
Aquisition or partnering would likely hinge on IP, depending on which drug(s) were in focus. IP for 273-plus appears to have moved forward some lately. Maybe a little forward. Maybe way forward. So news on 273-plus IP could come any day and would likely be quickly followed with news on partnering or aquisition.
Further, last year the Florida CNS conference was the big seasonal action for Anavex. They gave little notice last year, less than a week. More normal notice would be three or four weeks. The conference is Oct 8 -> 10 this year.
"Up to thirty six days" treatment is not very long for the early Phase 2A results.
Never heard of 6 month wait period from stock buying till buyout or partnering allowed. Where did you hear that?
I'm not that veteran in the markets, so hopefully others will still chime in, but wanted to balance out your assertion because it is a buzz kill, that so far has no basis.
Such a restricition would not make any sense. Once in negotiations, then you would have to stop buying shares. I believe that is the rule.
"1) NEW 52 WEEK LOWS RECENTLY"
That is a red flag for those that prefer to buy high and sell low, but for the rest of us... maybe not such a bad thing.
The NIH grant makes me feel a little bit more secure about the company, and specifically the stem cells they have stored. Either those stem cells and their history look good to the NIH, or Ocata has the ability to start new lines fairly quickly. This NIH nod+ put me over the top. I had been waiting. Always a cost to reducing risk... but it was not a huge cost.
They definitely want to partner the next Alzheimer's clinical trial. Maybe they realize that in the end, the partner will have a lot of say about that trial design. That might include whether it is a pivotal phase 2B or a Phase 3.
The Shanghai composite is down 1% but the Hang Seng is up about .1%. That is about as good a looking tea leaves as you could ask for, for tomorrow in the US. It bodes a normal day tomorrow rather than the wacky extremes we have been seeing.
Hopefully the lack of awareness of epilepsy potential will change very soon. I am guessing that there will be focus on epilepsy starting this week or so. That Missling wants to save his bullets for Alzheimer's until after the Fed related choppy waters, but hoping he thinks it is ok to PR epilepsy now. There is a September conference for Epilepsy. Hoping we learn soon that they will be presenting.
On the company website, under "Anavex Plus" in the pipeline tab, they say, "
Anavex initiated a Phase 2a trial with ANAVEX 2-73 and ANAVEX PLUS in Q4 2014.
Thereafter, the Company plans to initiate a potentially pivotal six-month Phase 2 trial with ANAVEX PLUS. This trial is expected to include up to 300 mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s patients."
http://www.anavex.com/pipeline/anavex-plus/
I'm not sure what the distinction would be between a large, pivotal phase 2, and a phase 3. Maybe whether it is double blind, or whether they have a "placebo" arm or not, where placebo would be donepezil alone.
Could be they just haven't spent a lot of horsepower on trying to keep the website updated. But a pivotal phase 2 is designed to allow approval. So, not a bad worst case here.
JB. I thought there were planned, current Ph2AA, then Ph2AB, then Ph2B. If not, that is great news! But I think there are others that thought the same. I don't remember where I or we got that from.
Having worked through these warrant numbers, it looks like it was planned that there would be few or no outstanding warrants etc by the time the stock starts to gain more attention later in the year. Ie by results time, and or uplist time, whichever comes first.
I believe less warrants than that at this point George. As Avitt pointed out in post #16367, the fully diluted share count went up 33.2M from that June 30 date to Aug 14. That might not have been all warrants, but it was relief of (Warrants + debentures + stock options), which I think is basically the same thing.
Total Warrants + debentures + stock options outstanding on June 30 was 78.3M, but subtract the 33.2M reduction since June 30 and you get;
Jun 30: 78.3M total (Warrants + debentures + stock options)
Aug 14: 45.1M total (Warrants + debentures + stock options)
Same time period, June 30 - Aug 14, total trading volume was 204M shares.
Relief from these liabilities then was 33.2M/204M or 16.3% of the share vol.
The percentage of share volume attributable to reduction of these liabilities has probably increased steadily as the share price has increased. So, 16.3% is probably a very low estimate going forward. But if you use that lowball estimate for the warrants (etc) exercised and likely sold since Aug 14, with a total trade volume of 36M shares in that interim, you get another 5.9M relief of warrants, etc., yielding an estimate of;
Aug 30: 39.2M estimated outstanding (Warrants + debentures + stock options)
However... I assumed in the beginning that all shares resulting from excercising warrants were sold... and that is not necessarily true. But it would seem likely that most were sold. No large advantage to excercising warrants before the expiration date unless you are going to sell them.
Duplicate message.
Thank you Avitt. I found where you are getting those numbers for OS at the most recent date of Aug 14, '15. There is a single line statement in the latest 10Q and the same number is posted on the company website under investors/data.
But I do come up with a different outstanding warrants (and debentures and options) count. To me, it appears they are about half way done with the warrants, etc.. If they get the volume back up they will likely have dealt with all the warrants before December, less a small number that are being kept for the big payoffs. If not... then there will be warrants left to deal with after the Ph2AA results, but less warrants than were dealt with recently. So... less of a limiting effect on SP. Basically, all normal stuff. No surprises.
In fact, the 10Q describes 7M warrants that are contracted to be excercised or lost if the SP exceeded $1.50 for 20 consecutive days. That probably set the $1.50 (approximate) threshold that we had a hard time getting past. By my estimates, they worked through most or all of those 7M warrants, so that $1.50 resistance should be gone or close to gone. Next significant good news should push through any resistance at $1.50. Not clear if there is going to be big volume before December, but I am hopeful. We will know more soon.
George: Where does one get the latest info on the warrant count? The recent 10Q only goes back to 6/30/15 which is 3 weeks before the big data release and associated jump in volume and share price. So the true number of warrants out there is much less than what one would infer from that recent 10Q.
My understanding was that at last count there were about 30M warrants outstanding, which does not seem like an outrageous number to me. But is that number from back at 6/30/15 (and therefore a huge overestimate), or is it based on some newer data?
"Recent filings show that not all warrants have been exercised yet by any means."
Are you referring to the recent 10Q as the recent filing?
Good. I hoped you were. So was I tootall. But a software interface on your own PC that would allow you to setup trading suggestions based on your algorithm with some huge array of inputs would be pretty useful. Maybe not as useful as finding promising biotech stocks based on DD, but useful.
I did work in an area of modeling that would lend itself to such applications. A Thesis. Never ended up using that knowledge in real life. Would be nice to be able to apply it to stocks. But I sure as hell am not going to spend a year writing a money machine algorith, and then hand it to TD Ameritrade. They wouldn't be interested... unless it worked. Then they would be very interested.
I like TD Ameritrade. As far as I know there are no platforms where your algorithm is not visible to the trading house. But there are people that write their own programs. There is a guy that has written such in Python, and he shares how he did it. It retreives data off the web automatically on a regular basis and spits out recommendations. I know nothing about Python or web interface, so it would be difficult for me. But I am going to have to learn Python soon for some unrelated project... so I will be a step closer to dabbling with such a money machine program.
They should do a line of hardware for those high end trade tools. Like X-Box or Sega Genesis. Maybe 3D.
I wanted some of those sw tools to develop trading algorithms. But when I found they get to see your model, I backed off.
I had been told that the concern was only in a margin account. Do you know if that is true TooTall? Are the shares sometimes available for shorting in a non-margin account or an IRA?
None of my business, but what?
I believe that the chances are very good that Anavex 2-73 / Plus will show great results in the remainder of the phase 2A studies
I know that is not what you asked, but due to my earlier posts I want to make sure my opionion on that is clear.
As for the remainder of the phase 2B study, we don't know that there will be a placebo in that/those studies.
The level of enthusiasm shown by patients and family and caretakers, as well as the Dr. in charge of the trials strongly suggest that the drug is doing something good. Presumably oxidative protection of neuron components and prevention of misfolding of proteins. Missling himself has stated that he is not 100% sure why the drug works so well... and that in the end, what matters are the results. I am personally buying at least a significant portion of the praise for the drug thus far by patients... etc.. That is the bottom line for me.
What is the data that proves that it prevents misfolding? There probably isn't any human data for that yet because it requires post mortem analysis. You would have to look at the animal studies.
We went through a very long analysis of patent issues on this message board about a month ago. I don't think anyone here wants to revisit that. But it sounds like you missed those discussions.
We are all long, understand the patent issues, and are satisfied with those issues. But it sounds like you aren't really informed in that area. Perhaps you should go back and read all of Wolf Wayne's posts on that issue.
Which patent is that?
Sorry, not true. They do have patients in this Ph2AA that are only on Donepezil. Whether that would work as the placebo arm depends on how many patients in that arm and the details of the drug administration.
It might not be double blind, but all you have to do is mask whether the patient is getting Anavex 2-73 along with the Donepezil or not. That shouldn't be that difficult. But you do have to make it impossible for the patient to tell which they are getting. That part is a big deal. Sometimes companies spend many months to a year or so trying to get a good enough placebo.
I guess I don't know exactly how they handled it here, but they did not claim it to be placebo. As "open label" they probably let the patients know what they are getting.
So if they tell a patient that they are getting the new miracle cure in addition to the old pill that doesn't work... the concern is the placebo effect.
What the FDA does is give an early marketing approval with a required Phase 3 "confirmatory" trial. The FDA retains the right to pull the plug on the drug based on the Phase 3 results.
In the mean time, the sponsor can sell that drug with full profit. I don't know if early approval makes getting medicare approval difficult or not.
Not saying that is going to happen here. No placebo. I don't think the FDA would take EEG tests as sufficient to bypass a placebo. It's one thing to use them to accelerate your dose finding in a 2 drug combo, it's another to approve the drug. But maybe phase 2B will have a placebo arm... rather a donepezil arm.
Rwings said he thought they would partner for Epilepsy. That probably means no cost to Annavex, or low cost. And they are looking to partner for Alzheimer's. Not sure when, but probably after the end of the year.
I heard an FDA senior member talk about early approval on phase 2 data with as few as a dozen patients. Then he corrected himself and said possibly much fewer than 12 patients.
And there is likely a mandate from all powers higher than the FDA to grease the skids for anything that might help with Alzheimers... might extend the period in which people can remain indpendant.
That said, it probably isn't going to happen here, particularly without a placebo. But... the numbers alone don't prevent it. And we do have 32 patients.
Maybe Phase 2AB will have a placebo or the equivalent, as Riding Bull and I discussed. If still cycling on and off the drug for some reason, they could use a placebo in the down cycle rather than not taking any pill at all... for example.