full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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11:36 FXEN: FX Energy reported gas shows during coring of the top level of Rotliegend sandstones in the Company's Lisewo well (now at $8.07, up 11.5% today)
Co reported excellent gas shows during coring of the top level of Rotliegend sandstones in the Company's Lisewo well. The gas shows were observed on the mudlogging unit during coring of the interval from 3810 to 3846 meters. The remaining schedule is to core and drill to a total depth of 3945 meters, run electric logs to estimate reservoir properties and the gas water contact, and then conduct a production test. At present, the Lisewo well has cored a total of 33 meters of porous Rotliegend sandstone. The well will be drilled to 3945 meters, with additional cores and logs to help determine the full extent of the pay zone and other reservoir parameters. PGNiG is the operator of Lisewo and owns 51%; FX Energy owns 49% of the working interest.
VST.v/VSTFF.pk(Vast Exploration) acting B A D L Y today.
Anyone have a hint of a reason for today's selloff?
Are the Kurds not gonna be able to sell their oil?
Gravity sucks! Everything seems to go down faster than it goes up.
S-8 filed doesn't seem to be so ominous to me, as it is a formality that establishes mgt's desire to sell shares over time, not all at once.
Somewhere it mentions that there is only a certain percentage of the shares that can be sold per qtr, but I don't know what that percentage is.
OGC.to/OCANF.pk says Didipio Mine on track for 2013 operation. Says they are committed to meeting human rights of local community.
MANILA | Thu Jan 20, 2011 2:35am EST
Jan 20 (Reuters) - Australian miner OceanaGold Ltd (OGC.AX) (OGC.TO) said on Thursday it was committed to pursuing commercial production of its Didipio gold-copper project in the Philippines by early 2013, as it declared compliance with all local laws.
The company also said it upheld "ethical, responsible and sustainable" mining, in reaction to a recommendation by the government's human rights body that Manila take back Oceanagold's mining rights for violating rights of indigenous people.
Australia's fourth-largest listed gold miner said in a statement it was concerned the human rights agency did not formally notify the company of its recommendation before the report was made public.
"The company insists it has met, and is committed to continuing to meet, the human rights of the local community," it said.
Company Chief Executive Officer Mick Wilkes said in the same statement: "The company is firmly committed to building strong and enduring relationships with our community in the development and ongoing operations of the Didipio project for the benefit of all stakeholders."
Loretta Ann Rosales, head of the human rights commission, said on Monday the agency found OceanaGold had violated indigenous people's right to adequate housing, freedom of movement and manifest their culture and identity.
The Didipio mine in Nueva Vizcaya province north of the capital has a reserve life of 20 years and holds 1.41 million ounces of gold and 169,400 tonnes of copper, based on a report released last year by OceanaGold.
In October, OceanaGold said it would restart work on the project in the first half of 2011, with initial capital cost estimated at $140 million. The firm did not give a final capital spending estimate on Thursday but said it was on target to begin production by 2013.
It halted construction in late 2008 on high cost estimates for Didipio's development, initially seen reaching $320 million.
Manila wants to promote mining to lure more foreign money and boost jobs, but opposition from the Catholic church and indigenous people due mainly to the environmental impact of the projects have resulted in slow investments in the sector.
(Reporting by Erik dela Cruz; Editing by Rosemarie Francisco)
OT: Days like today make us all feel like your proverbial "Gold Bug on the Windshield of Life".
Could you turn this boat around, or is JPM still driving?
Let us know when you are done.
Thanks,
'peeker
Re: CFO/Auditor report
I agree that the (5-yr old) report "sounded" worse than it really was, and I found Ms. Keeton's response letter sufficient.
Regards,
'peeker
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk: I was disappointed at initial UMU-6 production of less than 3000bopd from only one zone. Was expecting commingling of multiple zones and production over 6000bopd minimum. There had to be some mechanical issue that wasn't resolved quickly. Well, sellers today seem to have expected more, too.
I like your point about 2011 being a year for ongoing positive announcements. Things should move on up thru the year as UMU-6 begins production from multiple zones (commingling up to 4 zones) and UMU-7 gets underway.
Big issue seems to be pipeline volume limitation, which is being addressed, but more slowly than we would all like, I guess.
IMHO, Mart mgt needs to assure pipeline thruput for increased UMU-6 and allow for similar production from UMU-7, even if they have to contribute to pipeline mods or build their own.
ot: You're not paranoid; it's real; the shorters are out to get you.
Regards,
'peeker
ps> Holding AGM and wishing it were CCME
GBG update:
Co reports progress on exploration, development and production activities at its Hollister trial mining operation in Nevada, USA and its Burnstone Mine in South Africa. The Nevada operations reported an increase in production related, mainly, to higher tonnages from trial mining and improved operational performance of the Esmeralda mill, resulting in ~31,000 gold equivalent ounces (Au eqv oz) being sold during Q4 2010. This is a substantial increase over the 11,000 Au eqv oz sold in Q3 2010. Cash costs were also lower at ~$680/oz, a 20% QoQ improvement. Additionally, 3,500 ounces were delivered to the refinery; these will be recognized as revenue in Q1 2011. At the Hollister Project, initial trial mining in the newly discovered Blanket Zone yielded 500 tons at a grade of 15 Au eqv oz/ton (510 g/t), containing an estimated 7,500 Au eqv oz. A short 15-foot section of the 180-foot length of the high grade stope has been trial mined for 50 feet vertically to establish the vertical extent of the Blanket Zone in this area. Activities are focused on opening up the stope to determine the southern and northern limits and to establish a platform to trial mine the total payable zone, including the high grade centre and the surrounding lower grade halo.
AGM deal with CFC for 1.5billion loc:
CFC, Farmer Mac Announce $1.5 Billion Revolving Credit Facility
HERNDON, VA--(Marketwire - 01/18/11) - The National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (CFC) (NYSE:NRU - News) (NYSE:NRC - News) and the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) (NYSE:AGM - News) (NYSE:AGM.A - News) announced that they have entered into a five-year, revolving credit facility under which CFC may borrow, repay and reborrow up to $1.5 billion through January 2016. This draw period is extended annually for an additional year unless notice of non-renewal is given by Farmer Mac.
"I'm pleased to continue to build on CFC's relationship with Farmer Mac," said Sheldon C. Petersen, CFC governor and CEO. "Together we are providing electric cooperatives a stable and reliable source of credit, as well as liquidity and lending capacity that will help stimulate economic growth and job creation in rural communities across the country."
The new facility is in addition to CFC's existing note purchase agreements and whole loan sales with Farmer Mac. Any borrowing by CFC under the facility will be secured by eligible distribution system or power supply system loans as collateral in an amount at least equal to the total principal amount borrowed by CFC.
"This facility reflects our continued efforts to support partners like CFC by providing another source of capital needed to finance the rural utilities infrastructure," said Farmer Mac President and CEO Michael Gerber. "We are excited to work with CFC and others who see the value of a strong secondary market in rural America by providing needed capital and liquidity to finance growth in rural utilities as well as agricultural producers."
EMAN down about a dollar since you mentioned it.
Shhhhhhush! hweb doesn't need the kudos.
cl001, OK, I assume you meant the Cannacord note on Niko which totals 290mmbbl unrisked, which is same share that VST gets.
The Cannacord note stated:
The third-party resource estimates point to an unrisked (i.e., success case) recoverable resource potential of: 80 mmbbls net to Nikoin the Shiranish 34 mmbbls net to Niko in the Kometan 176 mmbbls net to Niko inthe Qamchuqa.
The simple math: 80+34+176=290mmbbls
cl001, is the following published by Scotia Capital the "resource note" you were referring to, or is there something else I may have missed? That would be a knock your socks off discovery. The delays have hurt the stock price, but I guess we'll know by end of February whether VST.v flies or just gets plucked.
The following, posted on VST board back in September, shows net to VST of 108.4 mmbbl net.
_______________________________________________________
Analyst CoverageBY: Scotia Capital
Base NAV of $2.38 per share.
We estimate Vast’s base NAV at $2.38 per share as at October 31, 2009, based on a sum-of-the-parts approach. Assuming gross OOIP (P90) of 1.7 billion barrels over three prospects, we have incorporated a 50% chance of success and a 35% recovery factor, which yields gross recoverable reserves of 293.0 mmbbl (108.4 mmbbl net). We forecast that a commercial discovery in calendar 2010 (F2011) of this magnitude could result in initial volumes of 10,000 bbl/d (gross) being trucked in late 2012 (F2013) before reaching peak field production of 75,000 bbl/d (27,750 bbl/d net) in F2016. Our base case assumes all volumes will be trucked to Kirkuk or Taq Taq and no pipeline development. Our NAV is based on a 12% after-tax discount rate and a long-term escalated (2% per annum) crude oil price of US$85/bbl in F2013 and beyond.
Ready to shoot the moon – unrisked NAV of $5.05 per share. On an unrisked basis, we calculate Vast’s potential NAV at $5.05 per share, which applies a 55%-80% chance of success (depending on the
prospect) and a recovery factor of 35% to its P50 OOIP estimates of 2.7 billion barrels OOIP for the Qara Dagh Block. Under this scenario we forecast initial volumes of 30,000-50,000 bbl/d (gross) in F2013/14 and peak production of 150,000 bbl/d (55,500 bbl/d net) in F2016 following construction of a pipeline to an existing offloading station, such as Kirkuk, or a future central export line from Kurdistan. Our unrisked NAV carries upside of 112% and 260%, respectively, compared to our base and risked NAVs.
cartonet, diggg & cl0001, here's a VST.v question: Didn't this statement about depth of potential hydrocarbon-bearing zones make anyone question whether this well risks NOT being a high producer after all?
The Qara Dagh well in block 10 was spud on May 12, 2010 witha planned TD of 3600- 4000 meters to target multiple zones of interest in theCretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic. The well has encountered an uphole sectionthat was thicker than expected, thus shifting the actual depths of thepotential hydrocarbon-bearing zone deeper than prognosed on seismic. As aresult, it is unlikely that the Jurassic or Triassic zones will be tested withthis well.
Bloomberg article about heavy shorting of commodities:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/commodity-options-traders-make-record-bearish-bets-after-u-s-etf-advances.html
Commodity Options Traders Place Record Bearish Wagers in Rally's Aftermath
By Cecile Vannucci and Jeff Kearns - Jan 14, 2011 12:01 AM ET
Commodity options traders have increased bearish bets to a record against an exchange-traded fund tracking energy and metals prices after a rally to a two- year high.
The open interest for puts to sell the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust doubled this week to a record 18,797 outstanding contracts, lifting the ratio of puts per call to a three-year high of 3.28-to-1. Traders betting on a 5.4 percent drop in five weeks lifted put volume to a record 7,915 contracts yesterday, 720 times the number of calls to buy.
“Investors see the potential for downside,” said Paul Justice, director of ETF research at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “You’re going to see less investor interest in commodities as the economy continues to recover and people feel more comfortable getting back into stocks.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the benchmark measure of U.S. stocks, is poised for a seventh straight weekly gain, the longest winning streak since May 2007, amid growing confidence in the economy. Commodities led gains last year as stocks, bonds, the dollar and raw materials rose together for the time since 2005 after the global economic recovery proved resilient. Oil and corn have climbed to two-year highs and commodities such as copper and cattle have risen to records.
The ETF lost 0.7 percent to $34.35 yesterday, retreating from the highest closing level since November 2008. The fund has advanced 6.5 percent from a year ago and is up 30 percent from a one-year low in May.
Two-thirds of the ETF’s assets are invested in energy commodities, according to the iShares website. Seventeen percent are in agriculture and the remainder industrial metals, precious metals and livestock.
16 Times Average
Put volume was 16 times the four-week average yesterday and topped the prior record of 7,463 contracts on Jan. 11. Almost all those bearish trades were concentrated in the ETF’s February $33 puts, which had an open interest of 15 existing contracts before yesterday.
“It’s a bet against commodities,” said Etai Friedman, head derivatives trader at MKM Partners LP in Stamford, Connecticut. “The customers who bought these options are betting on a larger-than-5 percent drop in the ETF.”
February $33 puts on the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust closed at 50 cents yesterday and traded 7,900 times, which if exercised would give the right to buy 790,000 shares. A buyer paying that price starts to profit if the ETF falls at least 5.4 percent to below about $32.50, surpassing the strike price by more than the cost of the contract, before next month’s options expire Feb. 18.
Crude, Corn
Crude oil climbed to a 27-month high Jan. 12 after U.S. inventories declined more than forecast. Prices gained 3.8 percent this week through yesterday. Futures fell 0.5 percent to $91.40 yesterday in New York.
Corn and soybean futures rose yesterday, extending a rally to the highest prices since July 2008, on signs that inventories will be lower than expected in the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter. Hog futures fell from an eight-month high on signs of rising U.S. pork supplies, while cattle prices dropped from a record in Chicago. Copper futures fell for the first time in three days. On Jan. 3, the metal’s most-active contract rose to a record $4.498 a pound.
“All these markets are due for a correction,” said Michael K. Smith, the president of T&K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida. “The commodities story is a very sexy story right now because you have the dollar coming back down again. I think the smart money is waiting for a pull back in prices before they’re going to buy.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Cecile Vannucci in New York at cvannucci1@bloomberg.net; Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net.
Hi Sam Dan, we should simply keep in mind that TRGD and TARM are an arbitrage play at this point, that is, the LOI that set a price of 2TRGD/TARM share will probably be modified (at least somewhat) in future before presentation to shareholders for approval. We cannot bank on any other TARM promises or future deals until the TRGD financials are pushed out the door and the final agreement between TRGD and TARM is drafted for approval. We can also not expect TARM price to stay at the current level til the final agreement is reached. It could go up or down (with TRGD following TARM as the arbitrage play).
Best of Luck to all TARM and TRGD shareholders.
'peeker
Thanks for update, but keep in mind that when TARM consumes TRGD, TARM shares may fall a bit, which is why TRGD shares are not actually going to reach TARM price before the merger.
Caveat: My understanding is that the current "agreement" is nothing more than a LOI at this point, and the final "agreement" has yet to be defined in final form for TRGD and TARM shareholder approval.
Looks like the PM "correction" we've been fearing is now upon us.
IAE.v/IACAF.pk: Ithaca (lifted from Stockhouse)
Experts who have talked about Ithaca Energy Inc.
TOP PICK 2.800 Andrew Cook (A Top Pick Jan 20/10. Up 94.96%.) North Sea oil/gas producer. Was extremely cheap at 1X cash flow. Did a funding last year so have capital to execute their program and are on track to triple production over the next couple of years. 2011-01-12
BUY 2.610 Bruce Campbell Is a recent purchase of his just before it ran. Still buying on this little dip. North sea oil producer. Pretty big production gains coming late 2011-13. Stock is very cheap. Could still double from $2.40. 2011-01-06
Comment 2.300 James Hodgins A North Sea play. Had a major disappointment last year when decline rates in their fields where a lot faster than expected. 2010-11-15
TOP PICK 2.390 Michael Decter One of the great plays in the North Sea, not far offshore. Wonderful management team. Strong balance sheet. Very smart. Will be a significant beneficiary when BP has to start shedding assets after the Gulf disaster. 2010-11-11
TOP PICK 2.170 Michael Decter Wonderful energy company in the North Sea. Terrific management. Will be increasing reserves substantially in the North Sea through the drill bit. Also looking to acquire some North Sea properties from BP (BP-N). Speculative. 2010-10-04
BUY 2.070 Irwin Michael, B.Com, MBA Disappointed the company did a financing it $1.70. An excellent balance sheet and didn't need the money but have pre-funded all of their major developments for the next year or two. Good management. 2010-10-01
DON'T BUY 1.830 Mason Granger Very cheap at about 1.9X Debt Adjusted Cash Flow basis. Did large equity financing at inopportune times over the last couple of years. Recently did a substantial equity raise. Fully financed until about 2013 for the 2 North Sea projects. Would like to own it when it reaches full development. 2010-08-31
BUY 1.840 Eric Nuttall Was negative for some time and then started buying it a month or so ago. The outlook on the company is very, very good. No exploration – it is pure development. 2010-08-24
HOLD 2.470 John Stephenson A little bit gassy but otherwise it is okay. 2010-05-28
BUY 2.890 Andrew Cook Loves this stock. Story just keeps getting better. Just got financing to help develop more of their properties. Can double production over the next few years. 2010-04-26
Comment 2.250 Laura Lau One of the cheaper stocks as it has been a turnaround and is in the North Sea, which has a very short reserve life. Next 2 weeks should give news on their Stellar well, which should tell whether the stock goes up or down. 2010-04-05
BUY 2.040 Peter Hodson Great balance sheet and strong management. Prospects and acreage are very good. As appetite for risk increases in the market, stock will do very well. (Optimistic on the economy for this year but not forecasting beyond 12 months.) 2010-03-30
BUY 1.620 Michael Decter Did a brilliant job of surviving the meltdown. Likes their North Sea projects but can they take on bigger projects without taking on more debt or a partner. Feels they will have to make a deal but doesn't think it will put the company at risk. 2010-03-08
DON'T BUY 1.620 Bill Harris, CFA He tries to stay away from these types of things. He waits for predictable, stable and cheap enough. 2010-03-03
VST.v/VSTFF.pk: Thanks for mentioning Vast Exploration was having a nice move today. I got some at .62 and now at .68, so thanks to you and DIGGG. Like you say, could be interesting if Qara Dagh well flows are announced soon.
'peeker
AUMN continues slide that started with their last PR. I guess the slow assays are pushing out expectations on AUMN. With no major short-term catalysts, AUMN could probably drop below $20 (and then some, it they don't start updating proven resources soon).
'peeker
SKILLZ1, nice trade on AGM.
I bought yesterday after you sold (ooops, paid $16.50).
Wish I'd bought SSN now instead.
Thanks again for all the work you do for us here on VMC.
'peeker
10:10 CCME: China MediaExpress announced that it has signed three new long-term agreements, adding a total of 774 express buses to its network (18.89 +0.43)
Specifically, CME signed the following contracts: -- A long-term framework agreement with a media company to purchase exclusive rights to supply entertainment programming along with paid advertising on 623 inter-city express buses originating from the Henan province, for a period of five years and commenced on January 1, 2011. A framework agreement with a media company to purchase exclusive rights to supply entertainment programming along with paid advertising on 101 airport express buses originating from the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport in the Sichuan Province. The third agreement was with another media company to purchase exclusive rights to supply entertainment programming along with paid advertising on 50 airport express buses originating from the Shijiazhuang Zhengding International Airport in the Hebei province.
URG: Kipp, that was a G R E A T trade.
Congratulations! Always fun to see one move like that.
'peeker
ps> I own no URG, or SSN or SDCJF, but I do own GORO (gold stock) which had a nice move today when their CEO rang the opening bell and was interviewed on CNBC.
GORO rings opening bell today on AMEX.
Question: How many Reids does it take to ring a bell?
Actually it should be somewhat affirming seeing some GORO management bodies on TV. Other than that it looks like the open will be a little bit down for GORO.
Cheers!
'peeker
OT: So I guess that means it's just funny.
CCME (up about $.50 premkt) is rated strong buy with consensus target of $29 on Nasdaq site (only 2 analysts though, and Wade could be one of those):
http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/analyst_summary.asp?symbol=CCME&symbol=CBI&symbol=MSTR&selected=CCME
IAE.v/IACAF.pk: Ithaca NEWS today (great update on 2011 plans)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?date=20110112&archive=ccnm&slug=201101120665723001
Ithaca Energy has announced that the Sedco 704 drilling unit is now being anchored on location over the Athena field ready to commence an approximate 180 day campaign to drill a fourth production well and a water injector well and complete the three existing wells on the field as producers. In addition, modification and re-certification of the Floating Production Storage and Offtake (FPSO) vessel (BW Athena) is well underway in a Dubai shipyard.
The Sedco 704 drilling unit will initially drill one water injection well, followed by a fourth production well (three suspended appraisal wells are to be completed for production as part of this campaign). The four production wells will be installed with downhole submersible pumps to maximise field production rates. Initial production from the field is estimated at a gross rate of 22,500 barrels of oil per day (bopd) (5,062 bopd net to Ithaca). Applied Drilling Technology International (a division of Transocean Drilling UK Ltd) will manage the programme on a 'turnkey' basis which is anticipated to last approximately 180 days. Subsea work will follow in Q3 2011, to install field pipelines and subsea manifolds. The Company will update the market as and when drilling and/or completion work reaches key milestones.
The FPSO 'BW Athena' is at dockside in Dubai and preparation works have commenced to re-certify existing equipment and install new equipment. In Q2 2011 the vessel will be 'dry docked' for the installation of a turret mooring section amidships, extending the FPSO by approx. 65ft. Steelwork for the mooring section is being prepared alongside the dry dock. All work is anticipated to be completed in Q3 2011 allowing the vessel to return to UK waters and arrive on location at Athena at end Q3 2011. Installation of the FPSO vessel to the mooring buoy, as well as, hook up and commissioning will be completed in anticipation of targeted first oil in Q4 2011. Both BW Offshore's Site Office and the Ithaca Representative's Office in Dubai are manned and operational.
John Woods, Ithaca's Chief Development Officer, commented:
'The drilling programme at Athena has commenced on schedule enabling the rig to complete its scope of work ahead of other field construction activities. Work on the Athena field remains very much in line with targeted first production from the field in Q4 this year at a gross rate of 22,500 barrels of oil per day. Work on the FPSO in Dubai and the other project construction activities have also all commenced on schedule and within budget giving the project team an excellent start to the New Year.'
The Athena Joint Venture Partners are Ithaca (operator, 22.5%), Dyas UK Ltd (47.5%), EWE Aktiengesellschaft (20%) and Zeus Petroleum Limited (10%).
LoL... thanks for the lessons on how to behave.
Good luck with your TRGD investment, but please don't try to tell me how Mr. Biscuit deserves to be denigrated with class. He has jerked his shareholders around (lied, that is) for years and deserves no benefit of the doubt (from me) at this point.
Regards,
Steve
That was ridiculous. Based on history, I do not believe my comments about Mr. Biscuit were morally reprehensible.
I've been disrespecting Mr. Biscuit for a long time because, as a stockholder, I have been lied to repeatedly by Mr. Biscuit and disrespected by him for longer than I care to recall.
Anonymity doesn't breed aholes; aholes beget aholes.
Freedom of speech allows us (thru IHUB) to voice our opinions about stocks and management. IHUB does not tolerate attacking other posters. We do not have to say only good things about companies and management when we believe they are not doing a good job.
Mr. Biscuit is a liar; there's no doubt about it; I can only assume that my experience with Mr. Biscuit is much longer than yours.
Best Regards,
'peeker
AUMN results sounded positive, so now it's off $1.24 ... maybe somebody decided they wanted the economic assessment earlier than mid-2011 ???
Sounds like the slow assays are hurting them:
"Golden Minerals is experiencing a significant backlog of assays from the outside laboratory. To date there have been 16 drill holes completed at the Carmen target with assays pending for 10 of the drill holes."
Yet, Paradigm increased target from C$36 to C$40, meaning the resources are being proven (even if it's taking a little longer than expected). Of course the assay backlog makes it hard to speed up a drill program, so they need another assay lab to crank things up rather than more drills, or so it seems. But they are smart enough to look for other assay labs AND go ahead a build an assay lab of their own and pretest samples so they won't send as many samples to the labs.
'peeker
OGC.v/OCANF.pk: Yesterday ... Cormark Securities updated their existing BUY recommendation to increase their target to C$6.00 from C$5.50
'peeker
Being somewhat optimistic about TARM future based on their assets (not their operations) ... TRGD has nearly completed filing of their questionable financials, and should soon be merged into TARM.
What are the benefits of bringing TRGD into TARM?
1. Substantial loss carry-forwards from TRGD will offset TARM's future profits (whether TARM is eventually taken over or by the grace of God or they actually do execute a JV agreement with a company that can operate the existing mill). It would be interesting to total up all the losses accrued by TRGD over the last few years, but I haven't tried. I would assume that the JV agreement is not going to happen prior to TRGD merger into TARM.
2. The other benefit is to TRGD shareholders. Of course given the realities of human nature (and that of the CEO), TRGD's most important shareholder is Mr. Biscuit (who seems to own many more TRGD shares than TARM shares). After his TRGD shares are converted to TARM shares, he will then focus his efforts on making TARM profitable OR sell assets one by one, b]OR just sell TARM lock, stock, and barrel as a way to get the hell out of the business of operating a mining company.
IMHO, TRGD financials are more than likely "being constructed" so that TARM will be able to take advantage of the significant LOSSES that TRGD has finally filed. These loss carry-forwards will help offset TARM gains in future. I would imagine that TRGD booked some losses so that TARM's filings looked better over the last couple of years.
As you can tell, I don't like how Mr. Biscuit has treated his loyal TRGD shareholders over the last couple of years, but I'm still holding some TRGD and hoping the sh*t doesn't hit the fan before he can capitalize on the significant assets of TRGD and TARM. When he does, I'll get some benefit from his "efforts", but you can bet your aXX that I'll never buy into anything associated with Mr. Biscuit (or his perpetual lies) ever again.
TRGD is up a penny, so have a nice day!
Oops, it's now off 4 pennies, so forget the nice day thing!
'peeker
Ithaca Energy - IAE.v Union Securities Reiterates Strong Buy
Q4 2010 Operational Update
Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 wverbonac@union-securities.com
10-Jan-11
Stock Rating: Strong Buy Target Price: $3.50 (was $3.00)
Company Description
Ithaca is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company, with all of its assets in the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea. Ithaca is headquartered in Aberdeen, Scotland and trades on both the Toronto and London AIM markets.
Source: Bigcharts.com, Union Securities and Company Reports.
Developments
Ithaca released production details for the fourth quarter of 2010.
Comments
Ithaca’s production averaged 4,148 boed in Q4 2010, down 15% from the prior quarter.
? Production Averages 2010, boed
? Q4 4148
? Q3 4862
? Q2 4914
? Q1 4193
Considering the latest quarterly production included some minor amounts from the recently closed acquisitions of the Anglia and Topaz fields, the drop in production may be somewhat disappointing for the market. Oil prices held up relatively well, at US$83.83/b in October, and US$89.86 in November.
Our previous cash flow forecast of US
.11 for Q4/10 was based on a slight increase in production to 5,000 boed; with the lower production, we expect the Company to report cash flow of US
.09 for the quarter, and US
.45 for the full year.
The Company’s cash flow guidance for 2011 is US$100-115 million, or approximately US
.42 per share.
Recent strength in the stock price reflects the large increase in production that is anticipated towards year-end 2011, when the Athena oil field commences production and contributes 5,000 bd net to Ithaca’s 22.5% interest. Workovers in the Beatrice field will also sustain production for 2011.
Ithaca’s production is forecast to more than double to over 12,000 boed in 2012 from the addition of the Athena oil field, and gas from Carna (16% interest), Stella and Harrier.
Cash flow in 2012 could increase to C
.65 per share, and we believe the stock can trade as high as $3.50 based on the upcoming growth, and more or less maintaining the current cash flow multiple.
The 2010 year end reserve report will also likely support an asset value well in excess of $3.50. Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 | wverbonac@union-securities.com EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT
Valuation and Recommendation
The stock is trading at 6.3 times our 2011 cash flow estimate of C.43, and at 4.2 times our 2012 estimate of C.65.
We are maintaining our Strong Buy recommendation and increasing our target to $3.50.
Ithaca Energy Inc. Fourth Quarter 2010 Production and Operational Update
TIDMIAE
Fourth Quarter 2010 Production and Operational Update
FOR: ITHACA ENERGY INC.
TSX VENTURE, AIM SYMBOL: IAE
January 10, 2011
Ithaca Energy Inc. Fourth Quarter 2010 Production and Operational Update
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM and CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 10, 2011) -
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES
Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX VENTURE:IAE)(AIM:IAE) and its wholly owned subsidiary Ithaca Energy (UK) Limited
("Ithaca" or the "Company"), an independent oil & gas company with exploration, development and production
assets in the UK sector of the North Sea, announces that combined production in the fourth quarter averaged
8,754 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boepd") gross (4,148 boepd net to Ithaca). This figure includes a
minor contribution from the recently acquired Anglia and Topaz fields, the transaction for which completed on
December 17th 2010.
The Company's average daily sales volumes for the period are summarised as follows:
Gross (boepd) Net to Ithaca (boepd)
Average Q4 2010 8,754 4,148
October 9,191 4,426
November 8,040 3,881
December 9,009 4,129
Nervous gold investors, Cam Hui wants you to relaxxxx ... he provides a comparison of gold price vs. Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index of commodities
http://seekingalpha.com/article/245202-is-it-time-for-gold-bulls-to-panic?source=email_watchlist
OT: Wow, this is crazy stuff. The Commodores couldn't make it today. Too much sweet harmony.
IDLM: I'll stay away from this (snoop) dog ... due extreme dissonance.
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk (Mart Resources) is back down below .60/share again today. Not a happy time for us Mart shareholders. The news about their partner in Nigeria sounds like it is not damaging to their development of UMU wells, but the stock price shows "uncertainty" (market hates uncertainty).
I have decided to try to stick it out, but my balls are not made of steel. How are others dealing with the recent correction?
Selling some shares? Buying more? Googling for ideas here ...
Others' thoughts appreciated...
'peeker
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk: Mart Resources is having a really tough time today, down 11%. Anyone hearing a reason for the correction/selloff?
TIA,
'peeker