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Sojo, I am always happy to hear positive predictions!
Hi Sojo, this chart you posted is very good in explaining your method of choice of lines. I appreciate your effort to bear with my questions. They make your methodology quite clear and is an excellent example. It is also very good jumping off point for my further questions.
You have here a series of three lines chosen after the dates of their lowest lowest lows at the time, the first determined about June 21, the second determined about July 14, and the last by the low on about Aug. 2 or so, as best as I can eyeball. (btw, was the second line drawn a little inaccurately, as it seems to have slightly missed the peak of the lowest minor high on about July 10, or am I still not really understanding the method to draw this line? Doesn't really change the line by much.)
So let's take these lines one at a time and see what they "predict" and at what point you would be comfortable in issuing your prediction.
Following the first line we get a breakout for several days with what we no know as a minor high on about June 28 or so. But when you were on June 23 or 24, you did not yet know that this would just be a minor high. The upward trend could have continued far beyond the minor high of June 28 for all you knew at the time. It could have been the start of a huge and lengthy uptrend? Can you predict that the next movement upward would just be a minor high that would end on June 28 to become a short minor high instead and rise no higher than about $1.65 which of course we now know with 20/20 hind sight.
Similar questions would apply to line 2 and 3. In particular wrt line 3, how do you know that this is the beginning of the major trend higher, rather than perhaps soon turning lower to yet further continue the larger down trend since the peak on about May 15 at $2.15??
At any point in time, we do not know whether the current high (low) is minor or not until some time in the future needed for confirmation. It is with 20/20 hind sight that we are able to determine the "minor" status of any critical point in the chart. How is this predictive?
Hi Sojo. Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions on the terminology and the lines. The formalism you have chosen seems to be an interesting way to organize ones understanding of a random chart and does a pretty good job of that. How to choose the lines of interest with the minor highs an minor lows is really quite interesting and intuitively seems to do a good job of getting to the essence of the trends in the chart which can also be seen intuitively but with less rigor.
However I am still at a loss to understand the claim for why these lines are predictive. At any point in time, you will still be depending on confirmation of the lows and highs etc which means that any current line is contingent on what might happen later to be confirmed or not. That is not a prediction, that is a contingent guess now, to be confirmed or not by later future events on the chart of the next period of time. I can do that too, I can predict a buy today for example, but contingent on the events of the next days or weeks. So what exactly have I told you now if it is all contingent on future events and not dependable? I am investing money now and will not be happy if the confirmation does not happen or is overturned.
Every hundred mile trip starts with the first mile.
But that would leave you cleaning you own toilets and mowing your own grass.
Anders, I think the difference comes from how far out you take the valuation. You seem to assume a sale of co in the period of a year or two so you come up with a buyout on the order of $22B, those talking 3 digit billions or even a Trillion considering a period as long as a decade where the success of DIRECT in many cancers could take it way over the top. Of course with a BO there is no long term horizon except for the BP that does the BO.
Thanks. The instructions on how to draw the line sound pretty specific, but I need a bit of translation. What exactly is a "highest minor low point" as opposed to a highest low point, or what is a "lowest minor high point" as opposed to a lowest high point?
I will be glad to have that answer from you which I am sure you will find a trivial (simple) question. The next question really goes more to the heart of the issue.
I can see intuitively that the line drawn as you do tends to be a good estimate to the trend of the chart, be it up or down. I grant you this. But why should this historic length and slope of this line be predictive? The line captures the essential features of the chart pattern (that has already happened), but why should this predict what that slope and length will be down the road in future trading? The slope can change at any time that should be unpredictable if the trading on the stock market is a random walk?
This thread is starting to produce heat, not light - so lets drop it here. You got the last word.
Reaching a Trillion, is a real possibility in my third period if they become the solid cancer SOC. Just I am not sure if they will be the first to get there.
Give me a break, that is not a reservation. NO ONE KNOWS!! If we are longs, we all believe, as it is obviously not certain. But I believe this without the need to resort to disclaimers about the tiny incertitude.
I do not agree. While it is true that at this time this is the case, but this will change EVEN WHILE ON THE OTC, beginning with the positive TLD and publication and growing with the BLA and become bigtime after approval by the RAs even if they have not yet had the opportunity to up list. But it is true, at this time that is a hurdle to pass.
I normally don't venture, but I will give it a shot against my better judgment. In any case I am not sure if you will get any satisfaction as my position is fairly "loosey goosey." I roughly think in terms of three time frames: 1) to shortly after the TLD (and publication), 2) from then until some short while after approval for GBM et als. and commercialization 3) Thereafter, on the road to approval and commercialization of DIRECT for solid cancers. This last could take us up to a decade out.
It is my belief (and hope for period 3) that by and large we will witness multiple gains in each of these periods followed by retracements depending on the flow of facts and the flow of news provided. I only tend to think in vague much rounded numbers for each of these periods, getting much fuzzier the further out we try to project. I can not even attempt to guess the timing of peaks or the amount of the retracements (Sojo claims to help on that) and my vision is largely based on my attempts to understand the basic fundamentals, the basic science, the market, and the competition, and the ability of the company to deliver.
My number predictions are not going to satisfy, but if I were to try to get more specific and detailed this far out, it would be more of a wish than a prediction. So for period 1 (a little more detailed as it is almost upon us) I think anything from $6 to $12 maybe a little more if the BLA is issued shortly there after. For period 2, I think it could go from something about $15 to $30 depending on how many areas of GBM and rGBM they are approved for and if any other gliomas are included and how much off label use develops over time. The last period is most sketchy for obvious reasons, but given that I believe the platform is basically the same, all we need is the time to run the clinical trials to prove the point. So I hope that depending on how many indications prove out we really could be into triple digit billions for market cap and maybe even multiples of that if the results are really great and this eventually proves to be the SOC for solid cancers in general. I have only provided numbers for the overall peaks but have no vision about how deep the various retracements that are sure to come may be.
The major variable on the cost side will be how well the Flaskworks device will be able to reduce the cost of production of the vaccine.
Sorry, but that is about all I have to offer. Notice, I nowhere said anything about what if it does not work, because I believe it will.
I tend not to stick my head out very often and make my predictions public, but I do at times have some feelings on share price usually based on fundamentals and other relevant info, but tend to keep them to myself. and more often than not, I am right about 50 % of the time. (I don't really count, but I am right more or less as often as I am wrong). I suspect your average is probably similar. Nevertheless, I enjoy reading your posts but wish you would explain more of the terminology you use for the uninitiated and how you choose to draw your lines on the chart. There are other points one can choose to draw lines through on these charts. Which lines are meaningful, and which are not - which lines are just lines and nothing else. You never know, you might convert me yet. Even if I were inclined to take TA more seriously, I am never sure which of your posts to follow, and which are more in the sense of just a possibility rather than solid advice where to place your money.
Sojo, I would have predicted the same merely based on the approaching Labor Day at the start of September, and the past history that things tend not to happen in the vacation doldrums of late August. Same result but no charts needed.
When this comes in, you can have the entire cow!
Who says it doesn't work, you?
Yup, the exchange rate can make a significant difference for our investment in NWBO for those of us in Canada. Always watch it, but rarely is it key in my decision to buy or sell. But ultimately it will make a difference on how many Cad$ I end up with.
We may invest in USD, but we live in Cad$.
Like I said, there are many ways to divvy up this pie!
Yes. of course. I never suggested that what I posted was the only way to do this - just one of many alternative paths - some better, some worse.
Jerry, I think you dropped several zeros on your number for outstanding warrants.
But to do a share offering they may need to increase the share authorization which they didn't do at the last ASM. Anyone know how many shares they have left before a higher authorization. This may limit the next share offering in size.
Anders, do not forget that we are now a Billion dollar market cap company and not just a couple of Hundred Million market cap any more. So say a Ten or Fifteen Million dollar loan or so may be a "substantial loan" for a smaller market cap, but now with over a Billion dollar MC it may no longer be, and may get done without the need for an 8K.
AGREED!
I have no in formation on what is actually happening at this moment. Just IMHO.
I think loans are the expected short term path forward.
As in IDH wild type?
I know, everyone is thinking TA, but my view came from basic news expectations, you might call that fundamental drivers when you are talking a news driven corp rather than a revenue driven corp.
I suspect that even if you have decided to sell some or most of your shares after the TLD and publication announcement, I would not rush in too quickly to sell, as I believe that when they finally do make the long awaited announcement, it won't be just the one. IMHO, over the next several following weeks there will be a whole series of announcements over a relatively short period of time, so the share price action IMHO will be up a lot, then a small slide back, and then with the next announcement we will hit another new peak and IMHO this will be a rinse and repeat. When this period is over, (hard to tell when that will be), there may be a larger slide back as we wait for approval, which may be a good time to reassess what and when you want to sell and then buy back lower to wait for the approval announcement. etc.
OK minions, if you still want to hit it today, NOW is your moment, just before close!
So much for minions!
UNTIL NOW!
Heck, if Marzan's minions can do that much fire power, and they do it in a controlled but CONCENTRATED fashion, we can be at $1.50-$1.60 in a couple of hours, especially on such a low volume day like today. But they need to retain a little fire power to protect the position so that it is not pulled back down when they quit buying.