I normally don't venture, but I will give it a shot against my better judgment. In any case I am not sure if you will get any satisfaction as my position is fairly "loosey goosey." I roughly think in terms of three time frames: 1) to shortly after the TLD (and publication), 2) from then until some short while after approval for GBM et als. and commercialization 3) Thereafter, on the road to approval and commercialization of DIRECT for solid cancers. This last could take us up to a decade out.
It is my belief (and hope for period 3) that by and large we will witness multiple gains in each of these periods followed by retracements depending on the flow of facts and the flow of news provided. I only tend to think in vague much rounded numbers for each of these periods, getting much fuzzier the further out we try to project. I can not even attempt to guess the timing of peaks or the amount of the retracements (Sojo claims to help on that) and my vision is largely based on my attempts to understand the basic fundamentals, the basic science, the market, and the competition, and the ability of the company to deliver.
My number predictions are not going to satisfy, but if I were to try to get more specific and detailed this far out, it would be more of a wish than a prediction. So for period 1 (a little more detailed as it is almost upon us) I think anything from $6 to $12 maybe a little more if the BLA is issued shortly there after. For period 2, I think it could go from something about $15 to $30 depending on how many areas of GBM and rGBM they are approved for and if any other gliomas are included and how much off label use develops over time. The last period is most sketchy for obvious reasons, but given that I believe the platform is basically the same, all we need is the time to run the clinical trials to prove the point. So I hope that depending on how many indications prove out we really could be into triple digit billions for market cap and maybe even multiples of that if the results are really great and this eventually proves to be the SOC for solid cancers in general. I have only provided numbers for the overall peaks but have no vision about how deep the various retracements that are sure to come may be.
The major variable on the cost side will be how well the Flaskworks device will be able to reduce the cost of production of the vaccine.
Sorry, but that is about all I have to offer. Notice, I nowhere said anything about what if it does not work, because I believe it will.
