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Sums up current state of affairs....
By dallas_bbq . 29 minutes ago . Permalink
The Trial is progressing. From the "sources" that are reporting, the evidence for Vringo is being presented and admitted in a favorable manner. Once Vringo is done with its affirmative case, Google will ask for a directed verdict from the Judge, saying Vringo has not met its burden of proof. This will be denied for the same reason summary judgment was denied. Then Google will put on its defense. Vringo will put on a brief rebuttal. Both sides will close. The case will go to the jury.
There is no leaked news that would favor Google that would cause a massive drop in price.
The drop is probably due to traders who were hoping for weekend settlement and weak longs who expected a settlement and do not want to ride the binary event of a jury verdict.
That is it. Only huge news that can come out would be good for Vringo. Everything else is just noise until the trial is over and the jury reaches a verdict.
I couldn't have said it any better than this guy did.
Received this email today.....
Vringo (VRNG): A Perfect Technical Retracement
A Perfect Retracement
This chart is about as pretty as it gets.
Until otherwise notified, I'm just following two small stocks- The import from Down Under- Barfresh (OTC: BRFH), and the David vs Goliath story on Vringo (AMEX: VRNG).
David began his fight with Goliath Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) this week with the trial commencing on Tuesday. It is well into the testimony phase.
Early reports suggest the Vringo attorneys did a good job in the opening- boiling the issues down to simple English, while the Google guys were far more technical- trying to confuse the jury.
The trial is well into the testimony phase already, and reports also suggest witnesses for Vringo who were involved with the development of the technology way back in the Lycos days have been very credible.
More importantly, as I pointed out in the last edition on this company, the stock fell back this week as the hot money that was hoping for a settlement before trial came out of the stock.
Recall the company recently raised $45 million by selling 10.35 million shares at $4.35. The stock was just under $4 at Friday's close, so you can now pick it up for less than the sophisticated funds who put in $45 million hard cash.
Moreover, technically this chart sets up perfectly for a rebound:
The giant four day surge you see in October was the result of VRNG getting favorable rulings on several motions related to the legal process.
The market was hoping for a $100 million plus settlement at that time. The trial started- so no settlement. With the trial underway, the market will try to guess the outcome as it moves through its various phases.
Even some of the most skeptical followers are starting to believe VRNG could have a big pay day here.
Technically, the stock completed a nearly perfect 61.8% retracement of the big move up in October. The perfect 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement was at $3.89- which is almost exactly where the stock traded to.
Another feature I like about this chart- there was much greater volume taking it up than there has been taking it down. It suggests there's a short term buyers strike, but a lot of current shareholders are choosing to wait it out. Supply will be harder to come by when buyers come back in.
At the $4 level, you can own it lower than the guys who just invested $45 million. In a jury trial there's no way to predict the outcome with certainty, but a $45 million bet is not made without the benefit of a little homework.
If the trial goes against VRNG, this stock will collapse instantly- you won't have time to get out with a minimal loss. That eventuality will be a few weeks out.
At the $4 level, you can definitely take a shot for nothing more than a trade if you are inclined. Since it's completed a perfect 61.8% retracement, it should bounce now. If it wants to go lower, it's likely to go a lot lower, so you can put in tight stop.
More likely, I'll bet the stock is back to the $4.25 to $4.50 range in a few trading days, poised for another massive surge if the market believes the trial is going well.
If you like the story and want to take a risk- $4 is your number. I've been calling this one right for 18 months starting at $1.25. Hopefully, that trend will continue
CNBC Just said Google moving down on an FTC probe regarding search?
This part of your link is interesting
"We would expect VRNG to receive a 0.75 percent royalty payment or $500 million payment for the trailing years and at least $100 million annually through 2016," D'Agostino wrote in a note to clients.
Notably, Vringo holds the upper hand in the dispute as a district judge denied Google's motion for summary judgment in the patent dispute. The judge ruled that summary judgment would be inappropriate as there are genuine issues of material fact in dispute.
"We contend that this ruling only strengthens VRNG's patent infringement claim against Google with the trial commencing on October 16, 2012, in our opinion," D'Agostino noted.
Another Post In response to Mr. Kim Quite interesting From Seeking Alpha site
The Court's Order is to 'produce revenue from properties'. This would appear to be an additional sum to be added to the Claim, thereby boosting the Total Amount. Let's give Google some credit: they likely did supply correct Sales Revenue numbers for it would not be their own interests not to do so. Kindly remember 'triple damages' are a distinct possibility if and when the case goes to Trial which is looking more likely and the final Award could be startling, as was the case with the 'Blackberry folks'. Mr.. Stout, perhaps the finest Patent Lawyer in the Land did offer 'Blackberry folks' a very reasonable settlement before Trial. Just like in that Case I expect Google to turn it down and suffer severe consequences including follow-on law suits against Google Customers. Google no doubt is also thinking about protecting their Customers, so they are in a bit of a pickle from all sides. Maintaining good relationships will also be on Google's mind. After all Vringo has 'other Patent stuff' that Google may well want to license. The Case get's ever more interesting. Mr..Stout, Patent Attorney par excellence is not someone you want to face in Court! Google has a great opportunity to show the World that people like Andrew Lang, Inventor par excellence are rewarded directly or indirectly for creating massive wealth. It's looking more like Trial as time-frame narrows, just like 'the blackberry case'. And $revenue+property revenues plus triple-d are moving up!
Great post from Yahoo
I have followed this daily like it was a second job though it actually feels like my main job. Steve Kim makes a good point point in his review but here is the playing field if you're analyzing the two sides given all we know at this point. For background, I have consulted with a relative who is a corporate lawyer in a big city law firm who in turn invested based upon further consultation with various patent attorneys. I am a holder since $1.72 for sake of the record. I have not traded in or out once. Number one, despite any updated, supplemented damages numbers, settlement talks are by necessity ongoing. There is still a great likelihood that this gets settled Friday or Monday. It could be a straight settlement or a buyout. Many previous authors have offered legitimate reasons for either. Be assured also that regardless of any updated damage number put forth two days hence, VRNG will be asking for at least 50% more than that figure, perhaps double. I'm guessing damages are no less than $500M so that puts the number at $750M. They will argue to Google that that number is a mid-point between expert damages and treble damages and therefore fair. VRNG is also likely asking for a 3% or better royalty. Stout and Cohen are negotiators and know full well you can always go down but never up. Given that 3-5% seems to be in line with the averages in these cases I am using the low end. I am not saying they get 3% but I am saying they certainly get 1-1.5% or they go to trial. I have maintained all along that for various reasons Google does not want to go to trial. If people on this board are thinking, they know there is a reason Google did not give VRNG the correct numbers to analyze damages. It wasn't just to trip them up in court by disavowing their expert. Google is a highly secretive company. From their standpoint they feel they have to be and many would not argue with them. However in this case, where information is being sought that they would rather not cough up in addition to numerous motions that will bare them even more in court, they are going to have to do just that or settle. A bruising court battle will affect their brand in ways that may be incalculable. There will also be much press and sympathy for Ken Lang who will be framed as the underdog. Having the inventor in the courtroom WILL tug at the hearts of the jury, who are now also allowed to hear just how big a behemoth Google is (how did they get sooooo rich). The judge has reserved the battering ram of having the jury hear about Google's antics pretrial. That is a very big stick. For these reasons and more this settles no later than Monday. The judge has clearly signaled he doesn't want to try this case and at this point the signs are many that Google is the antagonizing party right now. Who is the judge likely to take that out on if this does go to trial. Think that doesn't happen in American jurisprudence...think again and read a little history.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
WALL STREET " VRNG PREVAILS TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGES. WELL PAST 1 BILLION. LINk
Wall Street Journal
Wall Street 24/7
(((( To Verify Put In Name Of Article Into Google )))
Google Must Defend Itself in Vringo Lawsuit (GOOG, VRNG, NOK)
Posted: October 9, 2012 at 8:05 A.M.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) was denied a motion for summary judgement in a patent case file by Vringo Inc. (NYSEMKT: VRNG). The denial means that the judge found that there are issues of fact in dispute that are material and that settlement talks should proceed as scheduled for October 9th. At issue are patents related to search technology, and the judge’s refusal to toss Vringo’s suit is very likely to result in a settlement between the two combatants. Vringo acquired the patents, originally granted to early search company Lycos, when it acquired intellectual property firm Innovate/Protect earlier this year. Vringo also purchased a portfolio of patents from Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) in August.
Vringo stands to gain significant damages if the company prevails or GOOG will buyout VRNG. By some estimates damages could reach into the hundreds of millions and a 3x penalty for deliberate infringement could push Google’s total payout to well past $1 billion
There is no indication they will sell these shares
Why do you assume those shares will be sold immediately?
They make too much sense for many to handle...I can't invest in a company with this business model.
Not at all...if you can't invest here go somewhere you can. Why post comments when you have no stake?
Your comments are irrelevant, nonsensical at times and totally contrary to what VRNG is all about. Give your head a shake you might actually make some money here
New 52 Week high coming....
Altucher Says VRNG Could be Worth $30 -$40!!
Well, the cards have been dealt. The chips are on the table, and we are all waiting for the final card. Like in poker, we are dealing with a hand that has imperfect information. We know some things and we don't know others. Using this, we can help determine what value the cards in our hand have.
What things do we need to determine a value for in order to determine the value, today, of Vringo (VRNG).
- We need to know the outcome of the Vringo/Google (GOOG) lawsuit. This is the most important thing but it is not the only thing, as will be discussed below. There are several possible outcomes:
o Google can buy the company
o Google can settle. In fact, the judge has ordered that settlement meetings begin tomorrow, October 9.
o Google can lose a trial
- Vringo can win a trial but the US Patent Office might re-examine the patent validity on the 420 patent. This would effect damages but my guess is not so much. Also, the judge just ruled that this cannot play a role in the trial itself.
o Vringo can lose a trial
I put these in the order I think of greatest likelihood. As mentioned in Steve Kim's excellent article on Friday, the judge has ruled on various motions in limine mostly in favor of Vringo. The Markman hearings have also worked out in favor of Vringo. Google's motion of summary judgment was dismissed. And perhaps most importantly, the judge has requested that the two parties meet and see if they can settle. This meeting is tomorrow.
For a review of the MILs and what they mean, please refer to Steve's article. Steve and I had a chance to talk on the phone the other day. I thought his knowledge of the case was excellent and, when combined with his legal background, his article was an extremely informative summary of what the latest rulings of the judge mean for this case.
Anything can happen in a court trial. However, I think it is in Google's best interest to buy the company.
1) They get the search patents which they can then use to sue Microsoft (MSFT) and all of Bing's customers, a strategy I also expect Vringo to do if Google settles or loses.
2) They protect their customers from being sued. This also makes it likely that Bing customers will move over to Google.
3) They get the Nokia (NOK) patents (see below for my discussions of what that value is)
4) It will be cheaper for them than settling or, god forbid, losing a trial. Losing a trial is the worst outcome for Google. They will pay a bigger amount, triple damages, and their customers will get sued. This is the disaster scenario. But even settling is no good for Google. They will simply hand over cash without benefit. Buying Vringo actually has strategic value to Google. A buyout can happen in the range of $10-15 a share.
5) They, of course, avoid all of their customers being sued, like how Target (TGT) is being sued right now by Vringo, for instance.
Settling is a better outcome for Vringo shareholders, which is why I think they will get bought instead of have a settlement. Why is it better?
1) Although the lump sum they get will probably be lower than a buyout sum, they will still have the opportunity to sue MSFT's and MSFT's customers.
2) They will trade at a 5-10x multiple of a settlement. Let's say they settle for 500 million dollars (I am pulling this number out of a hat.) If they trade at a 10x multiple and they have about 120 million shares outstanding then that's a $20-40 stock price. It's too good to be true, which is why I think buyout is a more likely option.
3) They will be able to use the cash they get in a settlement to buy other patent portfolios and also to more quickly prosecute the patents they currently have in the Nokia portfolio. This would drive up my estimate of the value of the Nokia patent portfolio (see below).
4) Winning in a trial is a possibility but I don't think Google or their lawyers( Quinn-Emmanuel, who just cost Samsung a billion dollars in their Apple (AAPL) lawsuit) will not want to do it. Depending on egos and what Larry Page had for breakfast this morning, it may happen. But if it does I've already listed the reasons why I think Vringo will win. If Vringo wins, sky's the limit on the stock price. Good things like that don't usually happen to me, which is also why I think settlement or buyout is more likely.
5) Every investment must include an analysis of the worst-case scenario. While I think it's unlikely Vringo loses, it's worth seeing what other value Vringo has that can support the current stock price or higher or lower.
What is Vringo Worth Without the Google lawsuit?
Whatever price for Vringo you came up with above, depending on what scenario you think will happen, add the below scenarios and prices to to it.
What is the Cash Worth and Why Did They Raise It?
- They have $55 million in cash thanks to astute fundraising. While daytraders have been shorting this stock below $4, institutions have been buying significant blocks of stock ($45 million last Thursday) at higher prices than Vringo is used to seeing. $4.35 was the secondary price.
The big question asked is, "why?" Why raise this money if they are going to settle or get bought out. Why suffer the dilution? Do they have no confidence?
When confronted with several choices always choose the simple answer rather than the sinister answer.
In just about every outcome, having more money is better. It's that simple.
For instance, let's say they are in settlement discussions with Google. Google can say, "Here's 100 million. Take it or leave it you goddamn trolls!"
When Vringo has $10 million in cash, the judge might've said, "you guys really should take it." And shareholders might insist on that also. But now with $55 million in cash (on a lawsuit that has, so far, only cost them $4 million in legal bills) Vringo can say, "screw that, we're taking this to trial! See you in the courtroom."
As everyone knows in their personal lives: having more cash gives you more leverage in every situation. The Vringo/Google lawsuit is no exception. Congrats to Vringo for strategically raising this money.
So what is $55 million worth? On the one hand it's worth $55 million, or about 46 cents per share. On the other hand it's worth more than that.
We already know how Vringo has been using their cash. They used $22 million to buy Nokia's portfolio, which as we will see below, is worth a lot more than $22 million. Up to 10 times more.
So given that Vringo management knows how to strategically use their cash in an accretive manner, I'm going to be conservative and say the cash is worth $1 per share to them.
What is the Nokia Patent Portfolio Worth?
- On the one hand you can say, "it's worth exactly what they paid for it" which is $22 million. But this would be inaccurate. Nokia had strategic reasons for letting Vringo have this portfolio at a cheap price:
o Nokia didn't want to use the portfolio to sue their own customers and vendors. Now they don't have that worry.
o They get 35% of all revenues that come from this patent portfolio and they no longer have to lift a finger to exploit the portfolio.
o Their top litigator in the US, David Cohen, is now Vringo's top litigator. So they knew the portfolio was going to the one place that would maximize Nokia's future revenues.
So Nokia was incentivized to give Vringo a deal on the patents.
What are the patents worth?
- Unlike when this case started, we also need to know what the value of the Nokia patent portfolio is. On the one hand you can say, "it's worth exactly what they paid for it" which is $22 million. But this isn't true. Because of Nokia's 35% stake on any revenues generated y this portfolio, and because of the leap of chief Nokia Litigator David Cohen from Nokia to Vringo, there is a lot more value than $22 million.
I'm not a patent expert on an expert engineer. So it's a good thing a team of expert engineers were hired to independently assess what the patents are worth. You can find their results here.
They conservatively suggest that VRNG can bring in $30mm a year in revenues from the litigation, minus what they owe Nokia, taxes, etc. They don't really do a value analysis but suggest that over the next four years Vringo can bring in $172 million in revenues from the Nokia patents.
Since Vringo can obviously generate revenues over a longer than four year period I will do a more standard analysis.
Let's say the 2016 number becomes their annual revenue number (a conservative assumption on top of an already conservative assumption). They owe Nokia a little more than 1/3 and let's say they pay the max in taxes: about $10mm. So $10 million falls to the bottom line. Intellectual property companies in the telco space (I'm thinking IDCC(IDCC) and Qualcomm(QCOM)) seem to trade at about 20 times earnings.
So that would value the NOK patent portfolio long-term at about $200 million in the most conservative assumptions.
Roughly about $1.90 - $2.50 a share, depending on how conservative you want to be.
So with just their cash and the NOK portfolio, I'd make a strong case for $3.50 a share being added to whatever a GOOG settlement is. It should also help GOOG figure out what to pay if they were to buyout the company.
Google wants to save face. They don't want to do business with terrorists. Buying the company for $10-15 allows them to say, "we will strategically use the Nokia portfolio to generate at least this much value for Google, and will continue to use the search patents to prosecute all infringers. We feel this company is worth a lot more than what we are paying for it." And they would be right.
What is the Value of the Facetones Business?
Oh wait, I totally forgot about Vringo's original crappy business.
What's it worth? I have no idea. So let's assign a value to it based on the worst price of the past 52 weeks. Long before there was a Google lawsuit, $55 million in cash, and a Nokia portfolio.
68 cents. So the market probably knows better than me what that business is worth. But let's say it's worth at least the 52 week low.
Now, even without the GOOG lawsuit, we can argue a value of $4.10, give or take.
I like good risk-reward. In the worst-case scenario, this is still a company worth over $4. Any buyout or settlement will value the company significantly higher, which is how I come up with the seemingly ridiculous numbers above. Since I think this case going to trial AND Vringo losing is the least likely of all the scenarios, one can justify a price that is a significant multiple over the worst, most conservative estimate.
By the way, just across my email a few seconds ago: Maxim raised their price on Vringo from $6.50 to $10, based on similar analysis to the above. Given that I think the base business is worth at least $4 in a conservative scenario and given that I think a buyout or settlement is likely OR a trial win by Vringo is more likely than a loss, I think Maxim is being conservative and a $10-15 is a more likely short-term range, with outliers in the case of a settlement or Vringo win.
Extra reading material:
- Read Steve Kim's article here from Friday on the MILs
- Read the Vringo Analysis link I provide above that discusses the value of the Nokia portfolio
- For fun, get a hold of the Maxim analysis although it's similar to what I have here.
- Watch this September 11 clip of a Google VP on Bloomberg admitting that Google was slow to the patent game:
- Vringo files lawsuit against zte in UK. Press release was this morning. Read it here. This shows how aggressive they are going to be on the Nokia portfolio, which makes me think the analysis done above was way too conservative.
I'm long Vringo. There's already significant profits here since I first wrote about. The most important thing in investing is to make sure you can sleep at night. If you need to take profits off in order to sleep, do so. The purpose of this article was just to answer some questions (why did they raise this money? What is the value of the NOK portfolio? Etc) and provide my own views on where I think the stock can go and why.
Vringo Alleges Infringement over Handsets, Base Stations and Base Station Controllers
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 8, 2012-- Vringo, Inc. (NYSE MKT: VRNG), a company engaged in the innovation, development and monetization of mobile technologies and intellectual property, today announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Vringo Infrastructure, Inc., filed a patent infringement lawsuit against the UK subsidiary of ZTE Corporation (ZTE). ZTE describes itself as "a leading global provider of telecommunications equipment and network solutions," with recently reported annual revenue of US $13.7 billion (RMB 86.254 billion), according to filings with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to ZTE's public filings, the company generates its revenue primarily from the sale of telecommunications equipment and handsets.
"The filing of this action in the United Kingdom is an initial step in Vringo's global licensing and enforcement program in the telecommunications sector. ZTE has elected not to take a license to patents in Vringo's portfolio relevant to certain international standards, despite manufacturing and selling devices and equipment for a number of years that are said by ZTE to be compliant with those standards," said David L. Cohen, Head of Licensing, Litigation, and Intellectual Property at Vringo. "We believe that ZTE is aware that it requires licenses to all patents that are essential to relevant standards. Further, we believe that ZTE is familiar with systems for declaring patents to standards-setting organizations and the relevant intellectual property rights policies for those organizations, having itself declared hundreds of patents to international standards."
The lawsuit, filed in the UK High Court of Justice, Chancery Division, Patents Court, alleges infringement of European Patents (UK) 1,212,919; 1,166,589; and 1,808,029. Declarations have been filed at the European Telecommunications and Standards Institute (ETSI) that cover the patents. ZTE's cellular network elements fall within the scope of all three patents, and ZTE's GSM/UMTS multi-mode wireless handsets also fall within the scope of the '029 patent.
According to the complaint, Vringo is seeking a declaration that its patents have been infringed by ZTE's activities and that the court use its full legal, equitable and injunctive power to stop ZTE's activities as may be appropriate in the circumstances.
"ZTE's liability will continue to increase as long as the issue remains unresolved. We hope that ZTE will work with us to resolve this matter in a positive and productive manner," said Alexander R. Berger, Chief Operating Officer at Vringo.
Vringo, Inc. (NYSE MKT: VRNG), a company engaged in the innovation, development and monetization of mobile technologies and intellectual property, today announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Vringo Infrastructure, Inc., filed a patent infringement lawsuit against the UK subsidiary of ZTE Corpo
Price target raise to $10 by Maxim Group
Monday, October 8, 8:25 AM Vringo (VRNG) has its price target upped to $10 from $6.50 at Maxim Group following last week's legal victory against Google. "The company now has about $50M in cash and is well-positioned to enter negotiations with Google," writes Maxim (via Notable Calls). Shares +7.7% premarket.
From Yahoo Steven Kim Law Comments on Insider Sales
Vringo Insider Sales
By stevekimlaw . 12 minutes ago . Permalink
A few of you have asked my thoughts about the Vringo insider stock sales that occurred yesterday. Basically, does this worry me? Well, the answer is no, and here's why.
1. Sales are Preplanned and Nondiscretionary. On 8/31/12, Vringo filed a Form 8-K with the SEC, disclosing that Vringo's execs, except for Don Stout and H. Van Sinclair, had been released from their lockup agreements, but in an orderly way. In lieu of the lockup agreements, the Vringo execs have established a pre-arranged trading schedule, that allows them to exercise limited quantities of warrants and sell limited quantities of resulting stock, at various escalating price levels (i.e., as the stock price hits certain PPS benchmarks) between $4.25 and $30. Here's the language in the 8/31/12 Form 8-K:
"The trading plans are designed to align the interests of directors and officers with the Company's investors by allowing them to monetize a portion of their equity positions when the market prices of the Company's common stock are between $4.25 and $30.00 per share, in a systematic, nondiscretionary manner with the goal of minimal market impact, and compliance with federal securities laws and regulations adopted by the Securities and Exchange Commission."
Did you see the word "nondiscretionary" in there? These sales are preplanned, and they are not discretionary, but lockstep at specified share prices.
Here is a Nasdaq link to the 8/31/12 Form 8-K.
2. These Guys Deserve To Get Paid Too. The warrants that the Vringo execs are exercising are compensation to them. When they received the warrants, they were basically a promise of future compensation, in return for work they were doing back then (and are still doing now). I am at a baseball game this weekend. They are working.
I am glad the Vringo execs' nondiscretionary stock sales kicked in, because it means our stock went up. The insider transactions reported yesterday would not have kicked in for them if the stock had not hit the specified benchmarks.
3. Vringo Execs Want What You Want. I don't think the Vringo execs got into this company in order to have the chance to get out at $4.25 per share. If hitting that benchmark allowed them to sell an allocated portion of stock so they could have a bit of cash breathing room themselves (I don't know their situations, but I imagine they are like a lot of us, but maybe at a different level, i.e., extra cash always comes in handy).
I don't know what PPS they are looking for. But it looks from their Form 8-K filing that they have to hold on to some of their stock until it hits $30. It sounds to me like their interests are in fact aligned with ours. If this hits, will they make out better than we do? Sure. Did they do more than we did? Sure. In fact, they conceived and created this crazy carnival ride that we are all enjoying so much.
So in short, I am not worried about these types of sales. In fact, I am glad that the Vringo execs are going into Tuesday's settlement conference with some personal money in their accounts, so they can bargain from a position of financial strength not only on the Company's balance sheet (remember that's what the $45 million did), but also their own.
Aloha,
Steve.
Disclosure: I am long VRNG.
Why Google will Not go to trial.
Google can only "control" the outcome by engaging in serious discussions with VRNG. This is beyond the point of a nuisance case. The courts have ruled in VRNG's favour at Markman and in many of the key rulings. Now the question is does Google risk going to a trial where the outcome is uncertain or do they acknowledge that they should arrive at a compromise. They can manage this risk now and settle a case which impacts the core of their business. They can see the quality patent attorneys on the
other side. My opinion is they DO NOT roll the dice on a trial when the Judge has ordered settlement discussions. Google could settle with VRNG for $1 billion plus an on-going royalty without really impacting their cash-flow. However a loss in a trial and they could face multiple of this scenario. Is Google reckless ...I say NO. This is why I believe a settlement is in the works next week!
GLTA...
Alexander Berger owns 1.85 mill shares and options for 200,000 more
Seth Siegal owns over 350,000 shares and options for 150,000 more...
Andrew Perlman owns over 740,000 shares and options for 96,000 more...
Andrew Lang owns over 5.7 million shares and options for 400,000 more...
and so on
What exactly is your point? They hold substantial positions in this company. It is only prudent to sell some shares after a big run isn't that why you sold?
April 30th short interest will be reported on May 9th ..Wednesday....should be interesting to see if the numbers are higher than the last report.
In addition the float is not 10 million SHARES. We have discussed this already. Insiders own 6 million plus, Cuban owns a million that leaves about 2.5 million minus all shares from shareholders who don't have stop losses and are not selling. I estimate the true float is 1-2 million. If the next numbers show anywhere near this then we could have the beginning of a massive short squeeze...
Hi Rainmaker I have the information for you..sorry it took so long , got busy doing other things.
April 4/13/2012 4/17/2012 4/24/2012
4/30/2012 5/02/2012 5/09/2012
According to this schedule we will have the April 13 numbers on 4/24 and the 4/30 numbers 5/9. The key date you are looking for is this coming Tuesday.
Cheers
It was almost 400,000 shares March 30th, and with the high volume as you mentioned I suspect that number is 3 to 4 times higher 1.2 -1.6 million is my guess.....If I am right and these shorts persist there will be a severe short squeeze....
That's right, so when you add them all up the float is really tiny. The mm's need shares to do their job. Sometimes they short and sometimes they don't have enough shares. When that happens usually they run the stops. They can see very stop loss on the board and if they are looking to increase ether share position you will see the stock suddenly drop without explanation, sound familiar?????
Actually its less that this because your figure assumes every person who owns shares, puts them up for sale every day. I have well over 100,000 shares again and my shares on not for sale until the milestones are executed.....
I use "alleged" because the case is not until October....
THis part of the article is not exactly true. The discovery process and in patent cases the Markman hearing are part of the case they narrow the issues considerably and many cases never reach a trial because during discovery it becomes plainly obvious one the the parties has a major advantage, usually the plaintiff as in this case .
Just thought I would clarify this point....
Big news Coming based on trading
Cuban can let expire worthless.
That is a ridiculous statement obviously biased from a basher who has shorted or is shorting. These Seeking Alpha articles both good and bad are basically worthless. Check out who the writers are. They are not trained analysts but investor/speculators who submit stories , they don't even have to disclose their names. Trade on this type of info at your peril
No I don't agree. Anyone can wrote a post on Seeking Alpha. I know that if I wanted to buy a stock I wouldn't write a post and say you can buy the stock now I would say what the writer said, buy it lower. He has no more insight than anyone on this board. Every article does not have the same weight.
One ,more point about investment hedging rather than insurance as you mentioned. I regularly hedge my long positions with instruments such as TVIX etc...I expect this to go up in value if my longs decline in other words there is a direct financial benefit. This is what Cuban is saying in my opinion. He or his advisors , the Altucher article has convinced him that VRNG's patents are legitimate and the courts are bearing that out......
That's not how I read it. But you are entitled to your opinion.. An investment hedge is not the same as an insurance hedge. Investment hedges seek to offset losses with gains. Insurance only come into play in a disaster that's not his strategy here...
The author is wrong, he wants to buy this cheap but won't get that opportunity VRNG is going over $5 today....opened @ $4.25 on the Forbes article. Cuban's comments are very interesting as it implies he fully expects Google to settle with VRNG for a huge number and their patents protect him from possible losses in his other patent cases....
Why would Lycos sell something worth billions for $3.2 million dollars? That's a legit question that needs to be figured out.
With patents sometimes you don't really know what you have until someone uses it in a clever way....remeber that when Lycos sold these Google was a babe..Stout who has worked for the US Patent office and is now with VRNG had a private company called NTP. They sued Research in Motion for patent infringement even though they did not utilize the patent themselves. Mr. Stoudt secured a $612 million victory from RIM before they got to trial. Most patent suits are settled before trial. The reason is simple. Frivolous suits are thrown out by the courts, but those that proceed to Markman herrings and trial proper always have merit. I expect a settlement by Google et al before October....possibly before June 4th the Markman hearings which are very important. Once they get to that point it has the effect of crystallizing the case for the judge, if the hearing goes for the plaintiff (I/P Patent (VRNG) then Google and company are screwed, their options have been severely limited.,
I know a lot about patent issued, my brother -in-law is a patent attorney
You might want to bookmark this site:
http://dockets.justia.com/docket/virginia/vaedce/2:2011cv00512/271949/
You can follow the discovery process here, more up to date than the site you mentioned....
But we may never get to October, then there is the Facebook IPO which will boost this stock. This story is just getting started IMHO. Cuban arriving on the seen now is not a coincidence, he is a smart trader/investor and his 1 millon shares will not be sold for a $ 1 or $2 gain, more likely $10 plus at a minimum. If I am right then you want to own this now, trade some sure but always keep a core position because no one really knows the timing here. I came on board at the merger announcement and that's what I have been doing trading, buying back and always keeping some on hand ...Its' worked really well for me.
I disagree. How much is VRNG worth if the patents hold in the court system or more likely Google decides to shorten the process because they don't want the risk of losing? According to your analysis its a few hundred million I say if the patents hold its more likely billions. That is why people who take your position will sell and people who take my position will accumulate, trade and always have a core position. Twice now news has come out of the blue, this stock has rewarded the patient not the greedy.
P.S I am not calling you greedy , those that flip for a few pennies don't understand the magnitude of this story, luckily Cuban does.
This part of that story peaked my interest.....You know at some point he will comment on his VRNG purchase. It will be interesting to see what he says...
"It's unclear what piqued Cuban's interest. He was not immediately available to speak Monday and the company declined comment."
Seeking Alpha note:
8:33 AM Mobile phone ringtone maker Vringo (VRNG) +22.7% premarket on news that billionaire investor Mark Cuban has taken a 7.4% stake in the company and is now its largest shareholder.