Great post from Yahoo
I have followed this daily like it was a second job though it actually feels like my main job. Steve Kim makes a good point point in his review but here is the playing field if you're analyzing the two sides given all we know at this point. For background, I have consulted with a relative who is a corporate lawyer in a big city law firm who in turn invested based upon further consultation with various patent attorneys. I am a holder since $1.72 for sake of the record. I have not traded in or out once. Number one, despite any updated, supplemented damages numbers, settlement talks are by necessity ongoing. There is still a great likelihood that this gets settled Friday or Monday. It could be a straight settlement or a buyout. Many previous authors have offered legitimate reasons for either. Be assured also that regardless of any updated damage number put forth two days hence, VRNG will be asking for at least 50% more than that figure, perhaps double. I'm guessing damages are no less than $500M so that puts the number at $750M. They will argue to Google that that number is a mid-point between expert damages and treble damages and therefore fair. VRNG is also likely asking for a 3% or better royalty. Stout and Cohen are negotiators and know full well you can always go down but never up. Given that 3-5% seems to be in line with the averages in these cases I am using the low end. I am not saying they get 3% but I am saying they certainly get 1-1.5% or they go to trial. I have maintained all along that for various reasons Google does not want to go to trial. If people on this board are thinking, they know there is a reason Google did not give VRNG the correct numbers to analyze damages. It wasn't just to trip them up in court by disavowing their expert. Google is a highly secretive company. From their standpoint they feel they have to be and many would not argue with them. However in this case, where information is being sought that they would rather not cough up in addition to numerous motions that will bare them even more in court, they are going to have to do just that or settle. A bruising court battle will affect their brand in ways that may be incalculable. There will also be much press and sympathy for Ken Lang who will be framed as the underdog. Having the inventor in the courtroom WILL tug at the hearts of the jury, who are now also allowed to hear just how big a behemoth Google is (how did they get sooooo rich). The judge has reserved the battering ram of having the jury hear about Google's antics pretrial. That is a very big stick. For these reasons and more this settles no later than Monday. The judge has clearly signaled he doesn't want to try this case and at this point the signs are many that Google is the antagonizing party right now. Who is the judge likely to take that out on if this does go to trial. Think that doesn't happen in American jurisprudence...think again and read a little history.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
