full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Sam Dan, yes, you've got it right. I've definitely lost faith in the management of TARM/TRGD for many reasons.
Regardless of the timetable originally mentioned in the LOI (not an agreement, just an LOI, thus nonbinding) for TARM to pay a share of TARM for each 2 shares of TRGD, it has still not happened. However, the price of TARM has come down a lot since the original LOI.
I've held TRGD for a very long time, and they've definitely had problems making my dream$ come true.
Who is your source for anything that may be "in the works"? Is David Barefoot still the guy to ask? I've been unable to get him to call me back.
I honestly hope you are right, that TARM will buy TRGD shares and TARM will sign operational partner for the mill (since they could not make things go smoothly at their own facility).
Without a doubt, all things always take longer than promised by TARM/TRGD.
Regards,
'peeker
Buyout target seems overly optimistic. Why would somebody pay 300+% premuim for a run-of-the-mill outfit like TRGD/TARM? They'd have to have some legitimate resource estimates to justify a hefty premium.
It's clear that TRGD/TARM do not have the operating cash or resources they'd need to be tough at any negotiating table.
'peeker
09:03 CCME: China MediaExpress trading sharply higher; Hearing Global Hunter defending CCME after meeting with mgmt
TGB has big volume spike today on plans to expand Gibraltar mines.
Price up only 1-2% though.
CCME: Glen Bradford's latest piece on CCME in SeekingAlpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/252623-china-mediaexpress-holdings-28-days-later
Funny first paragraph:
"In the movie 28 Days Later, cycle courier Jim awakes from a coma in the deserted intensive care unit of a London hospital. The rage virus has caused zombies to take over London."
MMT.v comment about Nigeria's tax rates (lifted from StockHouse) contains link and quote from that link.
RE: RE: Expected Price to Cashflow Ratio
JustforFun7
2/15/2011 11:04:49 PM
Hey Milsey
I am just looking for explanations as to why the market would only be giving us what we are getting. If our expectations are 3.5 (Vernbonac) but we are only getting 1.9 from the market perhaps there is a reason and maybe our expectations are too high. I am not specifically thiking about now but later because there is so much good news to follow. I was trying to determine my exit point (share price) based on price to cashflow ratio expectations.
here is a link and excerpt to the tax rates for oil profits in Nigeria.
http://www.nigeria-oil-gas.com/doing_business_in_nigeria_-_tax_system-109-1-2-art.html
"The rate of tax on oil profits (Petroleum Profits Tax) for companies undertaking their business as a Joint Venture (J.V.C.) and with a Risk Service Agreement is 65% of taxable income on their gross exports during their first five years of production. Thereafter the rate rises to 85%."
Near as I can tell Mart started production on April 2008 from UMU-1 so we are getting close to year 3 of the first 5 years so we should have another full 2 years and a bit of paying 65% corporate tax rate before moving to 85% tax rate.
I don't believe we should be comparing oil companies on P/Es but I think it reasonable to assume that the amount that hits the bottom line would impact the price to cash-flow ratio that is achieved. I would expect a company paying 55% tax rate to achieve a better price to cash-flow ratio than a company paying 85% tax rate (all other things being equal).
JFF
MMT.v, yes, that's what we were all saying a month or so ago when Bob started the horserace to $1 between MMT.v and SEA.ax, and SEA.ax has already been to a dollar and come back to look for MMT.v, so to speak.
I love MMT.v, but the high expectations of last month have now given way to some disappointment this month, as measured by total BOPD and stock price.
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk: Not disparaging your pick, just trying to explain why it's correcting today. Based on the initial production measurements from four zones (with two that were yet to be tested), one might have expected at least 6-8,000bopd steady state production from UMU-6. That was my point. Long-term winner here. Short-term sinner here.
'peeker
IMHO, MMT.v/MAUXF.pk is down today (after the very positive news release yesterday) because the news release of about a month ago stated, "The UMU-6 well flowed at a stabilized combined cumulative rate of 14,319 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") from the four sands tested on choke sizes ranging between 22/64 to 32/64 inches."
Current production of UMU-6 is currently only about 4000 bopd (much less than we were expecting a month ago). Though the latest news release stated they hope to increase UMU-6 production shortly, it has become clear that UMU-6 will not reach the 14,319bopd mentioned a month ago. Many buyers bought after that very positive pr, but now some must be selling due to disappointment that total UMU-6 production will be significantly less than previously implied.
Regards,
'peeker
ps> I am already heavily weighted in Mart and am NOT SELLING. Whether this turns out to be a great buying opportunity for those convinced of MMT's great future remains to be seen. Speaking only for myself, I've decided it is less risky to buy some SEA.ax (which has dropped over 10% off its recent high) instead of adding to MMT.v at this point in time. I'll be ready to buy more MMT.v when the pipeline situation is cleared up and UMU-7 begins production.
VST.v: Anyone hearing any details about Vast Exploration drilling status in Kurdistan? Their partner Niko seems to hold all the cards. kachungachungachunga... why do drillbits turn so slowly in Kurdistan? Hopefully they hit a rich pool of crude (vs. gas) and get the pump$ $tarted, but nothing is assured here.
High Risk / High Reward.
ps> This gets me thinking about James Dean's last movie "Giant" ...
11:50 am ET AAA.v/ALLRF.pk ___ Farhad Abasov
CEO, Allana Potash
Commodities
Canada may be home to the biggest potash producer in the world, but it's not the only country in the business. BNN interviews Farhad Abasov, CEO, Allana Potash, about the company's pursuit of mining for potash in Ethiopia.
Here's the schedule of all today's programs and guests.
http://www.bnn.ca/Schedule.aspx
Pretium has indeed had a great run for the last week. However, it appears to have topped today. I'd guess it hits high 7s tomorrow and could continue to tail off. Jay Taylor's recommendation is now a couple of weeks old, so some of his readers may have started to take some of their profits off the table.
The online conversation with the new CEO was impressive, and all stockholders should listen to see what they think of the new CEO. My takeaway about his approach is that he intends to just drill for a couple of years and see what they can prove up while promoting the company along the way. I have to assume he and the BoD have determined that their best exit strategy will be to sell the company as it appreciates with additional drill summaries.
'peeker
ps> Oops! I bought at $8.47 earlier today.
CCME: Should get that bounce that helps you and hurts the shorts tomorrow. Cross your fingers, and get up early.
CCME: Credence MuddyWaters Revival!!!
Sorry, couldn't help myself ... music of the seventies ...
'peeker
CCME is too volatile for amateur traders here.
Who wants to hold overnite at this point? I'd expect it to close back below $12, but "only the shadow knows".
Tomorrow morning, I'd expect additional selling at the outset as people review their CCME price tonite when they get home from work. They'll see it, not believe it, and try to sell it tomorrow morning so it doesn't go down another $4 or so while they're at work tomorrow.
Rule #1: Survive to play another day.
SSN: Excerpt from today's IPAA conference presentation:
OIL ASSETS HAWK SPRINGS
• The Niobrara how good is it?
• Early days so a wide range of estimates
• Robert Coskey says:
• 10 to 20 million barrels generated per square mile
• Assuming a 5% recovery
• That is between 0.125 to 0.25 million per 160 acre well or
• 781 to 1,563 recoverable barrels per acre
• That translates to 10.9 to 21.9 million bbls net to SSN
• Samson says:
• 413,000 barrels per 160 acre well
• 2,581 recoverable barrels per acre
• That translates to 36.1 million bbls net to SSN
• CHK says:
• 6.25 billion barrels recoverable from 800,000 acres
• That is 1.25 million barrels per 160 acre well or
• 7,813 recoverable barrels per acre
• That translates to 109 million bbls net to SSN
Observation: CHK thinks there's 10x what Robert Coskey thinks. Pretty wide range for estimates, so time to get those fricken frackers frackin.
SSN: Started correcting after this article that asks whether SSN has gotten ahead of itself. He does some computations but highlights value per acre over production income to be expected. Still, the article is fairly convincing w/o considering the other aspects that should add to NAV.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/250179-samson-oil-gas-stock-s-gotten-ahead-of-itself?source=qp_article
OT: OT: OT: Whoa, Wade! No reason to go hostile back at KiK. You two have vastly different trading styles. It's only to be expected that you would have differences of opinion occasionally. Glen Bradford is quite positive on CCME, but he is positive on ENHD as well.
You've made your point well by posting your DD on CCME. I own some but will not risk losing much on it. If shorts take it down, I will get out of the way, not stand in front of the train and say, "Go away train, you are immoral and mean and you have no right to persecute CCME!"
Different strokes for different folks.
Your "balls to the wall" approach works sometimes and loses sometimes. So does KiK's, but he doesn't take as big a risk as you or enjoy the gains you do when things work out well for a stock you own.
Still, you need to keep the passion out and trade CCME according to your standard methodology, not break your methodology just to prove a point.
Good luck to all the manly men, including both you and KiK.
'peeker
ps> I guess I'm in a Jimmy Carter mood.
Thanks, Sam Dan, much appreciated!
'peeker
What percent of Adit does TARM currently own?
As I recall Adit did a PP some time back but I'm not aware of how many Adit shares are authorized or outstanding or owned by TARM.
Does anyone have these numbers handy?
TIA,
'peeker
ps> Only a small volume of shares traded for TARM or TRGD since the news release. Though the cash infusion is much needed, it's hard to understand just how much dilution is involved to TARM and TRGD shareholders by the newly-issued shares promised to AUY.
Karl, thanks for the news.
Those of us who have owned TRGD for an aeon have much to be ungrateful for, but I am delighted to hear that some progress appears to be underway for TARM.
At this point, however, I would like to make the point that the established trend has been for management to overpromise and undeliver. Hopefully the trend will change, but we have yet to see proof that the slope of the "promise vs. deliver" chart has changed.
That said, it seems that any Yamana involvement should help TARM over time, though TRGD shares have not been converted to TARM shares yet. According to the agreement Yamana can own up to about 20%, so when TARM issues new TARM shares to TRGD shareholders, Yamana will probably have the right to increase their ownership at that point. Maybe that's what the additional $3million investment in a few months is referring to.
Best Regards,
'peeker
MMT.v ... don't get me wrong, Matt, I think they have a blockbuster oil prospect, but production volume appears totally bottlenecked by pipeline service. If they can gain access for 20-30,000 bopd, this will be a home run, but right now the (shared) pipeline service has been inadequate to meet their needs. They can only gain the benefits of greatly increased oil production with UMU-7 and UMU-8 after they have arranged some way to get their oil to the market. The issue IS pipeline service. At one point there was a rumor they would even build their own pipeline, then the last we heard there is just an effort to add a pump to the existing pipeline.
Gotta solve the puzzle in a way that assures the market they can get that crude to market.
Regards,
Steve
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk appears to have great PROMISE, but their management needs to put out some NEWS that will assure the markets they can arrange pipeline service to get their oil to market. Thus far, they've been held down by pure unadulterated uncertainty (and slow execution to boot).
'peeker
Marc Faber negative short-term on emerging markets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/66163222/
"...Chinese market is sending you a message that something is wrong..."
He, being Swiss, doesn't care much for the Fed or most US politicians.
Negativity aside, he does have a good record of predicting economic situations.
He also thinks gold correction will be about 20% off its high ... )
Article on SSN - HAL deal...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/248786-samson-s-deal-with-halliburton-crucial-for-moving-ahead-in-the-niobrara?source=yahoo
I'm thinking of buying SSN if it drops closer to $2.
'peeker
ps> glta
15 undervalued gold stocks based on analyst targets:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/248821-top-15-most-undervalued-gold-stocks-by-analyst-target-price?source=yahoo
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk Uncertainty made me sell a few this morning.
Management needs to get out there and get those grasshoppers hoppin' in Nigeria rather than trying to grant themselves cheap options for the year.
'peeker
Wade, re: CCME
Glad to see this China stock working for you today. Regretting that I don't own a single share, as I sold back around 16 or so.
I do own some AGM though, so glad to see that one move up today.
Have you started lightening up on your CCME now that it has made a SWEET 16(%)move today?
Regards,
'peeker
I use this site for realtime gold and silver price.
Nasty drop today.
http://magyver.com/metals.htm
09:35 CCME: China MediaExpress early strength attributed to newsletter mention with short squeeze potential (20.92 +1.36)
Vast Exploration (VST.v/VSTFF.pk) is just not working out well thus far. Anyone hearing anything about drilling activity?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59199344
'peeker
Was that Kurdistan or Turdistan? Sorry, couldn't resist given the drop in stock price today.
A duster or not a duster; that is the question!!!
'peeker
cl001, are you sticking with OGC.to, regardless of recent price downturn and bad news about Didipio, or are you reducing your OGC.to and other gold stocks, focusing on oil & pulp?
Regards,
'peeker
AGM, imho, just moves mostly with financials, but its operational and derivative-related earnings are always hard to predict, so there's not a strong support level that keeps it moving higher than other financials. The last two news releases don't really allow a simple computation to see how much earnings and revenues will be impacted.
Thus, when BAC is down, I generally expect AGM to be down. The primary time that AGM seems to move is just before and just after earnings (and after SKILLZ1 sells).
Regards,
'peeker
AGM/Wade, care to comment about AGM purchasing $500million of debt already secured by AGM? Hmmm???
See yesterday's news or #130960 for details.
AGM: Farmer Mac purchases $500 mln funding agreement under its AgVantage program (14.82 -0.22)
Co announced that it purchased a $500 mln 5-year agricultural mortgage-backed funding agreement issued by Metropolitan Life Insurance Company. The transaction is part of Farmer Mac's "AgVantage" program, in which Farmer Mac purchases general obligations of rural lenders that, in turn, are secured by Farmer Mac eligible loans. This transaction coincided with the maturity of a series of AgVantage securities issued in 2006 that had been secured by a MetLife (MET) issued funding agreement and guaranteed by Farmer Mac, but held by third-party investors.
????
Form 4 shows one of the Directors (not a Reid) sold about 12,000 shares on the 20-21st of Jan. Chances are we will see other Form4's later this week showing others taking some off the table.
Tough time holding onto GORO today. Dropped about 20% near the low of the day (capitulated with fear).
Nuts. All Au and Ag miners seem to be suffering sell-offs due in large part to the recent drop in Gold and Silver.
Gee, UF, there's really no need to document your stream of thought.
Just buy it, sell it, no need to comment on your every thought.
Thanks,
'peeker
ps> That's my perspective only, as based on the fact that I still own most of my GORO that hit over $30 a couple of weeks ago. O U C H !!!
Technical Analysis: Stock Indices rally into afternoon trade
A mixed start to the day with the first hour marked by choppy trade at slightly higher levels for the S&P and Nasdaq Comp. The outperformance of the Dow, amid a rotation into more defensive large caps, noted last week has dissipated to some extent but it has been able to establish a new multi-year high. More flows today have been noted into big cap technology as the Nasdaq 100 is the top performing index. Technically the averages held in the vicinity of Friday's lows during the early choppy with the breakout of first hour ranges extended into the afternoon. Specific sector leadership has come from: Paper +3.5% (M&A chatter), Solar TAN +2.8%, Semi Equip XSD +2.3%, Steel SLX +1.9%, Mining XME +1.8%, Semi SMH +1.8%, Materials XLB +1.5%, Auto Parts +1.5%, Housing XHB +1.3%, Biotech IBB +1.3%, Technology XLK +1.3%, Computer-Hardware +1.3%, Chemical +1.1%, Disk Drive +1.1%, Telecom IYZ +0.9%, Machinery. Weaker sectors include: Crude Oil USO -1.7%, Bank KBE -0.9%, Reg Bank RKH -0.7%, Healthcare -0.2%. Last week's mixed/divergent action (Dow higher eight weeks in a row, small-cap Russell 2000 finished under previous six weekly closes) reflects weakening leadership after an extensive surge off Nov lows. However, given that the S&P has essentially formed a loose trading range over the last seven days as earnings are digested, inflicting no chart damage, a short term case can be make for upticks here and a bounce attempt in the small-caps. Initial resistance of interest for the S&P if able to work through Friday/today's high (1291) is in the 1294/1296 area (congest, multi-year close/intraday highs).