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DGAZ 26/27 before 23 if report is bullish. If report is bearish 27/28 and DGAZ moves up from there could hit 32/35 in shoulder have not done the # thingy but I bet if NG goes to 2.6 we hit 32+..
GLTU
nice, job im holding few weeks!
Bought more DGAZ under 24.15.. 29/32 cometh!
MHO
GLTA
Who knows they move spot up they can take it up a bit. Expiry on Monday 28th contango less than 3% w/x3 thats .48 cents at current UGAZ at 12.50.
I still say UGAZ is range bound no higher than 13.0 then back down!
spot up .09 to 2.98..hmmmmm
Nice entry could go to 29/32 or even more if they take NG to 2.50/2.60..
Thinking of getting in D tomorrow! Small position. Still tink there are better plays out there with quicker returns!
GLTU
Nice job Sendme, will look to short LABD at 7.70/7.90 area! looking for a 1.00/1.50.
Nice job!
Anything can happen, Im betting I can get in at 9 to low 10's...If Sept weather is hot they will run NG!
Thanks Guta, Agree with NG... I'm also looking at miner short JDST..
I need to learn how to trade options. Do you have any reading recommendations?
TIA
Yup Vix is the ticket these days. Sold those XIV 74's at 82 and 84.. Bought a bit more XIV Friday! If goes lower will buy more. Looking for Vix to head down and XIV up by Wednesday. Then I will short oil dwt!
NG will be range bound to down....Plenty of time to grab those 8, 9 or 10 before winter lift off!
GLTU
Thanks Money good to be back...Although I'm been playing the VIX more in the last 2 weeks. I'm still keeping my eyes on my baby NG...
Last 2 weeks COT report:
Summary:
Commercial short to long delta has increased. More shorts than last 2 weeks.
Speculators remain long with a large delta.
Banks data has not updated remains short with a large delta.
My Opinion: More down side coming for NG. Unless we get market changing news such as hurricane closing production or pipeline completion.
Next Weeks CDD:
No CDD (Minimal draw Mon and Tues) for 2 weeks will hurt NG. Getting close to shoulder season weather will not impact NG pricing as storage increases.
Weekly NG chart:
Downtrend continues until 3.00 is broken on the weekly: I think we revisit 2.70's and possibly lower~
GLTA
GS 100 Mill loss on NG summer long play...IF GS is getting their but kicked then can you imagine what others are doing! Wow..
Goldman Sachs FICC-trading income was an unexpectedly ugly blemish on what was already a poor Q2 earnings report. And while the FDIC-backed hedge fund initially blamed the decline on lower trading revenues, lack of volatility and depressed client activity...
there was more to the story. The Wall Street Journal has uncovered what really happened: A $100 million bet on regional natural-gas prices gone awry after production problems at a local pipeline sent prices soaring, decimating Goldman’s position.
“Goldman wagered that gas prices in the Marcellus Shale in Ohio and Pennsylvania would rise with the construction of new pipelines to carry gas out of the region, said people familiar with the matter. Instead, prices there fell sharply in May and June as a key pipeline ran into problems.”
More specifically…
“Goldman’s key miscalculation last quarter was betting that natural-gas prices in the Marcellus Shale would rise relative to the national benchmark price in Louisiana known as the Henry Hub, the people familiar with the matter said.”
The quarter was the worst ever for the bank’s commodities unit, which, as WSJ notes, has been one of the firm’s most consistent profit centers, and a training ground for many of its top executives, including Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein. The trading loss “extended a broader slump at a company once known as Wall Street’s savviest gambler.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/real-story-behind-goldmans-q2-trading-loss-how-100m-gas-bet-went-awry
nice gltu...
Enjoy the vacation wz. Im out with family also...Looking to buy back in dwt Monday morning. I think first leg up to 32/34 is coming next week.
Not selling til 90. Think she closes at low of day. Peeps scared to hold over weekend. have another order in at 72.00. RElief rally next week!
Not selling till 90
Bought XIV @ 74. Will buy more later when it goes to 68-70. Relief rally next week. will then get in D at under 22.00 for shoulder!
GLTA
Looked at UVXY 2 days ago at 28.40~ was not compelled due to is erratic behavior it possess! Which I had the cojones to buy her. Anyways, eyeing XIV the issue here is we are in for good 4 to 6 weeks of market gyrations...
Almost feels like trump is cahoots lol!
Got a small lot of DGAZ hoping for a bounce tomorrow, then who knows for Monday. Think D may go down a bit more. (22.00sh)
Made a nice coin with DWT today im out. May play UWT tomorrow for a scalp.
GLTU
take the pink colored glasses off so you can see reality .0025 is next then trips! geez~
Step away from the pipe!@
sure it is! buy more CEO needs a new pair of shoes!
No need to respond, I know who you will be... Baggy?
Nothing but news names on board with 1 or 2 exception (bagholders?. This POS is toxic CEO should be in handcuffs! Nuff said.
Looking at xiv should get a nice uptick when this fear is over! back to 96
started buying D @ 24.20 have more powder will scalp today. Im in oil
2.97/2.99/3.05 if it moves pass that then im out with loss and wait for real shoulder risky business
NG 2.96 resistance
waiting for right time to pounce on D
Great article: Bearish bias though!
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/this-hard-hit-commodity-could-drop-another-30-percent-trader.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Too Many rigs out there: is the skinny!
"We think there's reasonable risk down to the $2.20 to $2.30 range," noted Raymond, who added there's additional risk for nat gas falling to $1.75 before the end of the year.
From current levels, a drop to $1.75 in the next three to six months would represent more than a 30 percent decline in price.
"Ultimately, the issue becomes the associated gas production that's going to come out of places like West Texas and Oklahoma, which is probably enough to satiate the demand curve," warned Raymond.
"If the dry gas guys keep drilling, at some point you're going to have to bid gas prices down to a level to get some of them to stop drilling."
Before this call, Raymond had been waving a red warning flag on natural gas prices. In February he reaffirmed his bearish outlook for nat gas on "Fast Money" noting that "it's hard to get constructive on gas."
Within a week of the call, prices tumbled 10 percent en route to 2017 lows. Now, despite a slight recovery in March, nat gas is down 24 percent year to date.
Futures Now: SEGMENT 2 More pain ahead for one of 2017's hardest-hit commodities: Hedge fund manager
Tuesday, 8 Aug 2017 | 1:05 PM ET | 08:08
One of Wall Street's most closely followed commodities watchers says natural gas bulls are about to get stuck.
"The supply curve is on the cusp of really starting to take off in response to a dry gas rig count in the U.S. that's gone from 80 rigs to 189 rigs in the last 12 months," Robert Raymond said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now" when discussing oversupply in the market. "People are underestimating how much associated natural gas is really going to come out of a lot of the 'oil shale wells' as well."
The founder of RCH Energy explained that these factors will continue to spur overproduction in the market. From here, Raymond believes this action will serve as a lead balloon for the price of the commodity.
"We think there's reasonable risk down to the $2.20 to $2.30 range," noted Raymond, who added there's additional risk for nat gas falling to $1.75 before the end of the year.
From current levels, a drop to $1.75 in the next three to six months would represent more than a 30 percent decline in price.
"Ultimately, the issue becomes the associated gas production that's going to come out of places like West Texas and Oklahoma, which is probably enough to satiate the demand curve," warned Raymond.
"If the dry gas guys keep drilling, at some point you're going to have to bid gas prices down to a level to get some of them to stop drilling."
Before this call, Raymond had been waving a red warning flag on natural gas prices. In February he reaffirmed his bearish outlook for nat gas on "Fast Money" noting that "it's hard to get constructive on gas."
Within a week of the call, prices tumbled 10 percent en route to 2017 lows. Now, despite a slight recovery in March, nat gas is down 24 percent year to date.
"In the back half of the year, you're going to see supply grow by a [billion cubic feet of natural gas] per day each month between now and Christmas," Raymond said. "The demand just can't keep up with that."
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tia
should be, still watching D for entry. They tend to take what ever is down down until report. You should get pop end of day. Then they will keep her around here till report. I dont think NG bottom is in yet!
Nine Natural Gas Facts That You Should Know:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2017/08/06/nine-natural-gas-facts-that-you-should-know/#3376b7587e44
Natural gas is now our main source of electricity, and thanks to the shale production revolution prices collapsed from $8.86 per MMBtu in 2008 to just $2.52 in 2016. Prompt month September prices are now below $2.80, a shoulder month and blue weather maps for the next two weeks mean a bearish market. So far this summer, although hotter on the low demand Western coast, we simply haven't had a prolonged heatwave to increase prices.
Gas is not just cleaner but also has unmatched versatility: no single sector accounts for more than 35% of all gas usage - utilized in electricity, industry, heating, transportation, and more. Gas is the most interesting and talked about major fuel market these days and in future, so continually arm yourself with some gas knowledge:
1. FERC now finally has quorum for the first time since early-February, and with a huge backlog of unapproved pipeline projects at least 6 Bcf/d of new takeaway capacity projects are scheduled to come online throughout the critical Appalachian Basin between now and the end of First Quarter, 2018. Although don't expect significant volumes flowing through the troubled Rover pipeline until next year - a 3.25 Bcf/d line carrying PA and OH shale gas into eastern Michigan and up into Dawn Hub in Ontario.
2. From 2016-2018, U.S. piped gas export capacity to Mexico will double to nearly 15 Bcf/d. The country now takes about 4.2 Bcf/d from the U.S. and needs more U.S. supply because gas is 60% of Mexico's electricity and domestic production is rapidly dropping. But, bear in mind that the 2013 Energy Reforms have been progressing and upstream auctions for more foreign investment have been successful. Mexico's de-regulation is about producing more, not importing more from the U.S, with a $640 billion investment required (here).
3. By 2020, more than 150 new natural gas power plants are scheduled to come online in the U.S., concentrated in or around our shale basins. There's at least 90,000 MW of new gas generation currently in development, 70% of which is located in the PJM and ERCOT regions. This represents nearly a 20% expansion of our gas capacity, as gas is surging toward being 50% of all U.S. power capacity - given coal and nuclear retirements and the requirement to back up wind and solar.
4. We've been lucky: we had the warmest winter ever in 2015-2016, and 2017 has brought the warmest February ever. Let's be clear: a normal cold winter could bring $4 or even $5 natural gas. This is especially true since low injections in the past month (a 20 Bcf gain reported last week) should equal just 3.7 or 3.8 Tcf in gas storage to start the winter withdrawal season in November. This would be below average and well below the more than 4 Tcf we had last year. As a declining surplus, inventories are now 9% below last year’s level and just 3% above the five-year average for this time of the year. To reach 4 Tcf, the average weekly injection over the next 15 weeks until the heating season will need to average a very unlikely 66 Bcf.
5. As likely our most vital incremental gas producing state, Pennsylvania's GOP-controlled Senate has passed a volumetric fee on production designed to generate an estimated $100 million annually. This severance tax will be a very tough sell in the House, where Republicans have a strong majority. PA's Commonwealth Foundation details the full proposal on its website. Make no mistake: anything that disrupts PA gas production impacts ALL natural gas users around the world. The Marcellus is probably the world's largest gas field and now produces nearly 20 Bcf/d of gas - more than double the second place Permian in the U.S.
6. Mexico is doing all its can to increase competition and efficiency in its still very young gas market. State-owned PEMEX has a gas release program to reduce its customer portfolio by 70%. With 20% released in January, there are two more auctions coming over the next 13 months. On July 1, Mexico launched the pipeline capacity reservation contract model as the next step on its way to a fully competitive natural gas market. Mexico has also eliminated its maximum price for natural gas, known as the first-hand price, or VPM, abolished to help increase production and help PEMEX finally realize the true market value of gas. A liberalized gas market in Mexico is now emerging.
sold 29.48
bought D 29.12
Hoping all is well with you and family: Nice article! hedging at 45!
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Shale-Producers-Hedge-At-Much-Lower-Prices.html