I am updating my staus.
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SGZH - could also be a chance to get english speaking CFO in time for the uplisting?
Perhaps she's just more talkative
rich
cclwf - try this
China's negoitations for Coking-Coal Target $200
Talking about $200 target... blimey.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/195302-why-china-is-ready-to-pay-a-premium-for-metallurgical-coal?source=yahoo
rich
PUDA - interestingly they sold 7% more by volume Q/Q but the ASP went down. At least the amount of iron produced is going up - even if the margins are under pressure.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Metric Tonnes 456,000 440,000 498,000 535,000
ASP 109 109 123 113
PUDA GP looks in line with Q3. so $5.4M Q3 vs $5.3M Q4. Wouldn't go as far as bad just that the core business was disappointing - I was expecting a Q/Q improvement. Goes to show that coal washing isn't a good business.
Bring on the mining operation...$113 MT for coking coal sounds attractive.
rich
CC Notes from Global Gains Boards
Guy named Swede - he's followed the company for a year or so... he okayed I could copy and paste his postings on the CC.
rich
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I listened to a replay of yesterdays CC this morning. Link to the telephone number below for anyone interested in listening.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Yongye-International...
Notes from the Q & A part.
Cap Ex. They have 55mm in bank and will use 35 for the coal mine and up to 15 for the manufacturing expansion. They may also buy the distribution rights to their product from a few of their large distributors, but it would not be a large expense.
COGS. They expect a significant drop in cogs when their new plant goes on stream at the end of third quarter. It will be near their mine, and they will hire a third party to extract the coal. No significant cap ex required for the mine as it is surface coal. Just dig it up and ship. They weeren't able to give exact numbers of the cost reduction at this time. Margins should show inprovement in 2011.
Market penetration. Their product is currently used on less than 2% of the arable land in China, so their is a lot of room for future growth.
Ability to achieve the stated goal of at Least 50% growth with their current plant running at full capacity. Their YE inventory will support approx. 80mm in sales (their total sales for 2009 were 98mm). With the opportinity to possibly increase inventory further during the slow 1st qtr, It looks to me like they have the ability to do 50 to 100% growth this year.
Need to go back to the capital markets again. They stated this would be their last resort, and had no plans to do so at this time. Their terms with distributors have been 3 to 6 months in the past, but they are in a position now to negotiate shorter periods. This should help with cash management. They are in a much better position now to negotiate loans with local banks than they have been in the past, if the need for additional capital arrises.
They also mentioned that they would be giving guidance for 2010 revenue in a few weeks. Don't know if a few weeks would be with the 1st qtr report in mid May or before. They have a history of exceeding guidance, so it will be interesting to see if their first 2010 numbers will be over their previously stated 50%.
YONG - nothing wrong in ER... suspect it's just people playing with the stock knowing Q4 and Q1 are weak. It might change before but certainly I don't think anyone will stand in it's way come the growing season's results of Q2 & Q3.
CCME, IBD - I don't think so. They have figures where they compare Y/Y Q/Q etc and CCME doesn't have the history. At some point it migh change but certainly for now it won't.
Still, I think it will do alright without this promotion
EPS % Chg (Last Qtr) N/A
P-E Ratio N/A
3 Year EPS Growth Rate N/A
Debt % 0
EPS Est % Chg (Current Yr) N/A
Market Cap $333.00 Mil
Sales % Chg (Last Qtr) N/A
Dividend Yield NONE
3-Year Sales Growth Rate N/A
Profit Margin N/A
Composite Rating 45 Fail
EPS Rating 9 Fail
RS Rating 70 Fail
Group RS Rating A+ Pass
SMR Rating N/A N/A
Acc/Dis Rating B Pass
Cheers for the link... essentially they are known for building a WIMAX network but they have equipment to do LTE.
cheers
rich
CCME - if they miss the guidance then there are 7 Million fewer shares. It's difficult to lose unless they really miss their numbers. As others have pointed out they still have 100 M to buy their growth.
rich
CNAM - interesting announcement - as it boosts core earnings while we await for ramping up of the recycle facility.
Contract
Rev 180 M
Contract time 16 Months
Months in year left 9 Months
Rev in 2010 101 M
Margin 6% (From memory Glenn had interview that suggest this was higher but keep it here for now)
Income 6 M (Compare to their core net income in 2009 of between 4.5 and 5 M)
EPS booster for remainder of year $0.41
EPS booster per quarter $0.14
CNAM seems to have chunky orders - so it just feels like another one of those all be it a huge chunk. The company had a net income of around 5M in 2009 but this is 6M in 2010 alone. Without knowing how much these chunks make usually (my ignornace) my guess is 9M - 11M is quite possible from the core this year, so $0.61 - 0.74 - (once again emphasising that's a guess without knowledge of chukyness per year!).
Sooooo, a great announcment but I don't know if the core business is going to grow or not. Compare this to the sismic sea change in the company after the previous announcement. That said it's will harden the company's Q2 and Q3 as we await full capacity run rate in Q4.
rich
I thought DRWI were neutral on wimax / LTE - as long as people are thinking of using wireless backhaul they have a product.
rich
There is reticence on the part of buyers because the company walked over the shareholders with the last major deal they did - they doubled the companies O/S for getting 30% more of their business - I think that was the details. They would have been better, whatever the management think, not to have done the deal.
Shareholders will forgive when they think that management "get the message" that you don't give the company away with bad deals.
Ironically, the company would be worth more if they hadn't been so unfriendly to shareholders.
Lets be honest greed trumps most investors fears.... if they think the management are going to be fair this stock will do very well - if not it will have to wait until faith is restored, if ever.
rich
(former long)
YONG, trader - don't disagree
Now, if the analyst that ratbranco's read can give us some details - I don't mind looking it over.
Yong - analysts increased estimates, forward P/E now 5.41.
rich
YONG, Trader - Yeah 50% sales growth... the margins might improve through scaling up but I'm just using the figure to get a finger in the air cacluation - tax is the same. Don't see it's P/E 5 but, hey, I would so love to be wrong.
I own some shares and thinking about taking options... but if I take options I want to be really sure it's stupidly priced. Clearly P/E 5 would be a dumb price! (P/E 10's pretty dumb but we've seen with Rhino... it's necessarily given higher multiple till it can earn more money)
Personally, I think it will do more than 50% inc in sales but I'm going with management until they say otherwise.
rich
YONG - hows he calculate that then?
I've got them down at 26M net income ignoring non cash charges for 2009
50% growth that's 39M net income.
Outstanding shares (took of front of 10-K) 44.5 M
Forward EPS of 0.88 ish...
So around P/E 10 for company growing at 50%.
They have shown more ability at keeping cash but possibly they might need a raise.. but it's the last thing they would do (at the CC).
Margins will improve with the new mine and plant but that won't be open till Q4.
I'm getting cheap but not that cheap...
rich
PUDA - yes, I wasn't very clear... 900K of potential coking vs 600K of potential coking. Whatever the % is we'll have to wait.
rich
PUDA - I had them down as having 600K from Jianhe - once fully expanded. So we are talking another 50% increase here of coking coal to 900K for the other 3 mines?
rich
SGZH - I think this one just needs a little patience... if not Q4 then Q1... that's what I'm figuring..
That or an IR firm... anyone anyone?
rich
LLEN - looks like $1.10 for FY is very possible.
They used "27,850,355" shares but, from memory, was more like 30 Million with all warrants dilluting. Even with 30 odd million it's 31 cents a share. Sounds like a $10+ stock to me. The $1.28 run rate by End of April looking good.
Hurrah, finally, an excellent number. I need a wee.
rich
LLEN - smokin. - We going to have a good coal day?
It was 2 cents above the analysts prediction Well, I say prediction... stuck finger in the air is better description - $1.28 / 4
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=47695150
rich
CCME, Mike (IOH),
My simplistic take on the matter reading someone whose clearly more knowledgable [1] is:
Adjusted net income = Net Income + One time charges (well, mainly plus)
After all we care about the long term profitability of the company not the short term (no scoffing traders ). Since the company is doing a number of deals and doing listing and the like it's very possible they have some one time charges.
We've also seen other results affected by warrant non-cash charges - the answer is we don't really know till we've seen the 10-K. The most likely scenario is there's a few million here or there and managmenet make their numbers.
[1] http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=47859181&txt2find=ccme|adjusted
rich
Yup... I'm here for the 50% organic growth all right They have so many ways that they can enharnce their core busienss.
Anything else I'm hoping doesn't, at least, destroy value.
rich
We also have a nice wildcard, an acquisition announcement, in the pipeline and that could send PPS much higher as well. I am very comfortable with where we are, which in my opinion is on our way to $20 in the near future.
It's the only thing I don't like about this company. I don't see how they are going to get a company of the same quality as CCME. I don't want them to just buy any old advertising company and end up with a patchwork of companies like VISN did - this is exactly how they failed. They bought a going concern with the expectation that they reach some targets. They did reach targets. Then the acquired owners bailed and then they missed their next estimates.
Much prefer organic growth and I'm keeping my fingers crossed over the inorganic growth.
rich
CNAM - no idea also about margins but I prefer to have people speculting about higher margins than I've been using rather than lower
I'll file the street article under interesting....
rich
CNAM intersting they were giving net margins of 8 - 12%
This ties in with Bradfords talk with CNAM and them expecting higher margins.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=47780898
rich
PUDA - no I hadn't seen that but I think it's a fair introduction piece.
rich
Ah... I see... no wonder people don't trust pinks!
rich "Only now do you understand" e-rich
Your allowed to dilute a small % without mentioning it then?
rich
LLEN - they reaffirmed at the start of March with a quarter that ended Jan. With some of the coal companies you could at least imagine they might have supply line problems in the harsh winter... but LLEN is Southern China... must have been fine.
Given price of coal I just don't see how they could do poorly - perhaps more to do with a sell off on a stock that's done well recently?
It's not like all the other stocks are up 5%.
rich
BFAR - ah that was a trading abberation... someone had an order in above 45 cents and it wasn't filled. There's some rule about the MM can do what they want in the first few minutes including I guess scooping up a market order on a thinly traded stock
rich
BFAR
They all seem to be interesting stocks that are under pressure - which is partly why they are cheap I guess.
Red candles means that it's down for the day... I'm guessing that white filled means it's come off the bottom for the day?
rich
BFAR - ok... cool graphs.. so obviously I'm still clinging to the anotated remarks I hope that others would benefit more.
I don't know if it's a redchip.. it's a recent reverse merger and I think it's the previous shell owners selling out their free shares... I think they could have a lot of them, millions.
rich
BFAR - yes I believe it's one of the previous shell owners selling out like bandits. Though, I don't know if they would be adding shares? Do you mean adding shares or increasing float?
rich
Have they done a bad deal yet? Bring on the dilution... I say.
rich
Yes, I can see further raises are very possible. Obviously, this will be matched against new mining assets. I think the question was more directed at 2010's numbers as an idea for valuation.
Still, it's interesting that they seem to be subcontracting with the intention to buy - a little cash goes a long way. If this continues then it's going to take a lot of new properties before they run out of cash.
rich
In this update.. they talk about warrants being exercised and taking them up to 30 Million. You'd have thought that most would already have been counted? Oh well.... wonder what 10-Q says...
http://www.lnlinternational.com/files/LLEN2QFY10Update.pdf
rich
RHGP - yes indeed, however, that should be the test. That should not be allowed to be sold over the counter if BSPM are telling the truth.
rich
BFAR - any TA people watching it? Clearly there's a big seller at the moment - can TA give any insight into what happening - distribution etc? Assuming it's a legitimate company clearly there's a lot on money to be made, also, a lot of shares to be bought
rich
BSPM - always possible that it's lost in translation... However,
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/company.aspx?g=posts&t=1652
We asked management if this favorable insulation from competition can continue.
Answer: The Chinese government is not issuing anymore OTC hepatitis licenses and is also limiting advertising campaigns for for prescription hepatitis manufacturers.
Also, Fernando discussed this with management... Dunno... if it's not the case then they need to clear that up as it's very misleading.
rich